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万辰集团(300972):复盘来时路,展望启新章
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 08:04
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Wancheng Group [3][5]. Core Insights - Wancheng Group has transformed from a leading edible mushroom producer to a high-growth player in the snack retail sector, achieving significant revenue growth in its new business line [1][12]. - The company has successfully integrated multiple snack brands and expanded its store network, with a target of 15,365 stores by mid-2025, contributing to a substantial increase in revenue and profit margins [1][13]. - The financial outlook is optimistic, with projected revenue growth rates of 56.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside a significant increase in net profit [3][4]. Summary by Sections Development History - Established in 2011, Wancheng Group focused on edible mushrooms, becoming a key player in the agricultural sector by 2020, with mushroom revenue reaching 540 million yuan in 2024 [1][12]. - In 2022, the company entered the snack retail market, rapidly expanding through acquisitions and establishing a robust store network [1][13]. Shareholding Structure - The controlling shareholder, Wang Zeneng, holds 34.4% of the company, guiding the expansion of the snack business through strategic acquisitions and incentivizing management with equity plans [2][41]. - The company has been consolidating its snack brands under a unified operational structure to enhance efficiency and profitability [2][44]. Stock Price Trends - Since July 2024, Wancheng Group's stock price has increased over eightfold, driven by improved profit margins and the recovery of minority shareholder interests [3][25]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its new store formats and operational efficiencies, which are anticipated to further enhance its market valuation [3][19]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 50.4 billion yuan in 2025, 57.9 billion yuan in 2026, and 63.4 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.0% [4][5]. - Net profit is expected to rise dramatically, reaching 1.29 billion yuan in 2025, 1.98 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.54 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [4][5].