证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 02 年 月 日 农林牧渔 关注地缘政治对农业整体板块的影响，生猪亏损加深逻辑增强 大宗农产品：市场对农产品关注度持续提升，从基本面上看，原油价格长 期中枢抬升会带动生产成本上涨同时拉动需求扩张，我们认为影响程度排 序为植物油类（棕榈油、菜籽油、豆油）、橡胶为先，其次为白糖、玉米， 粮食类小麦、稻谷为后。当前主要大宗农产品均处于低位，资金抄底意愿 较强，基本面反应在后但有望跟随，关注植物油类、橡胶、白糖、玉米等 相关对应标的。 生猪养殖：节后全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价跌至 11 元/kg 下方，亏损程度加 深。我们预计未来较长时间成本偏高的参与者面临减量压力，母猪产能数 据变化仍将继续催化，建议投资者关注亏损阶段的配置机会。当前估值仍 位于相对低位，关注低成本的猪企的配置机会，关注德康农牧、温氏股份、 牧原股份、立华股份、天康生物、正邦科技等。 菌菇：本月金针菇价格保持景气，主要标的业绩预告发布高增，确认价格 反弹持续，冬虫夏草作为重点新产品放量期临近，年度配置价值高，建议 关注板块重点标的众兴菌业、雪榕生物、华绿生物等。 养殖配套：农产品上下游 ...

本报讯 （记者刘欢）2月27日晚间，天水众兴菌业科技股份有限公司（以下简称"众兴菌业"）发布公告 称，公司受让控股子公司四川众兴菌业科技有限公司（以下简称"四川众兴"）29%股权事项已完成工商 变更登记，并取得了由金堂县政务服务管理和行政审批局换发的营业执照。 公告显示，此次交易于2月3日经众兴菌业第五届董事会第二十二次会议审议通过。公司以自有资金受让 四川众兴其他股东合计持有的29%股权。股权变更完成后，众兴菌业对四川众兴持股比例由71%升至 100%，公司合并报表范围未发生变化。 四川众兴成立于2025年7月9日，注册资本5000万元，为众兴菌业布局西南市场的核心平台，专门负责实 施食药用菌产业园西南总部基地项目。 资料显示，食药用菌产业园西南总部基地项目总投资约7亿元，一期投资约5亿元，采用租赁载体的方 式，租赁金堂县天府菌都农业产业园三期项目载体，在原建筑基础上对部分厂房进行升级改造，重点开 展冬虫夏草工厂化仿生培育项目，以及其他珍稀食药用菌的研发与种植，建设食药用菌及健康特色农产 品的研发中心、智能生产车间等；项目二期投资约2亿元，主要围绕一期项目进行产业完善及配套。 众兴菌业相关负责人表示，此次全 ...

截至9月30日，华绿生物股东户数1.03万，较上期减少9.42%；人均流通股9132股，较上期增加11.88%。 2025年1月-9月，华绿生物实现营业收入8.68亿元，同比增长17.98%；归母净利润1633.35万元，同比增 长146.55%。 分红方面，华绿生物A股上市后累计派现7679.04万元。近三年，累计派现4644.84万元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，华绿生物十大流通股东中，诺安多策略混合A（320016）位居第 六大流通股东，持股109.93万股，为新进股东。中信保诚多策略混合(LOF)A（165531）退出十大流通 股东之列。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月24日，华绿生物涨1.27%，成交额1.01亿元。两融数据显示，当日华绿生物获融资买入额1087.17万 元，融资偿还830.23万元，融资净买入256.93万元。截至2月24日，华绿生物融资融券余额合计7947.21 万元。 ...

宏利消费红利指数A（008928）基金经理为李婷婷。 截至发稿，李婷婷累计任职时间4年59天，现任基金资产总规模23.22亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 43.8%， 任职期间最差基金回报-35.89%。 从众兴菌业十大流通股东角度 数据显示，宏利基金旗下1只基金位居众兴菌业十大流通股东。宏利消费红利指数A（008928）三季度 增持36.31万股，持有股数349.8万股，占流通股的比例为0.9%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约297.33万 元。 宏利消费红利指数A（008928）成立日期2020年3月26日，最新规模7.2亿。今年以来亏损0.21%，同类 排名4898/5580；近一年收益8.18%，同类排名3738/4297；成立以来收益58.61%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 2月24日，众兴菌业涨5.2%，截至发稿，报17.21元/股，成交1.10亿元，换手率1.67%，总市值67.68亿 元。 资料显示，天水众兴菌业科技股份有限公司位于甘肃省天水市秦州区建设路185号，成立日期2005年11 月18日，上市日期2015年6月26日，公司主营业务涉及食用菌研发、工厂化培植与销售。主营业务收入 构成为：双孢菇63. ...

经济观察网众兴菌业（002772）(002772.SZ)股价自2026年2月9日高点18.53元后持续回调，截至2月12日 收盘报16.71元，区间跌幅达9.8%。此次回调主要受以下因素影响： 资金面与技术面 股价在1月13日至2月9日期间累计上涨约26%，短期涨幅较大，部分资金选择兑现收益。2月6日虽出现 涨停(+9.99%)，但此后连续三个交易日下跌，技术指标显示KDJ的J值从94.14高位回落至37.32，MACD 红柱收缩，反映短期超买后的调整压力。 行业板块情况 公司2025年业绩预告显示净利润预计增长134%-173%，主因金针菇价格回升及成本管控。但市场可能担 忧行业产能扩张过快(如香菇产量2023年达1304万吨，供需格局仍待优化)及季节性波动风险。 本轮回调主要为技术性调整与板块情绪共振结果，公司基本面仍保持增长。需关注后续季度财报验证盈 利持续性及新业务(如虫草项目)进展。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 2月12日农林牧渔板块下跌1.49%，种植业板块下跌1.57%，行业整体走弱对个股形成压力。此前农业板 块因政策预期升温而上涨，但近期市场对政策落地节奏及行业景气度分歧加大， ...

Market Overview - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% during the week of February 2-8, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector fell by 1.92%, ranking 23rd among sectors [5] - The top-performing sub-industries included food and feed additives, broiler farming, pig farming, aquaculture, and grain and oil processing [5] Pig Farming Industry - Pig prices continued to decline, with self-breeding pig farming profits showing losses. As of February 6, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 yuan/kg, reflecting week-on-week decreases of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% respectively [13] - The average pork price was 18.34 yuan/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week. The average wholesale price for piglets remained stable at 16.50 yuan/kg [13] - As of February 6, self-breeding farming profits were -38.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 63.19 yuan/head from the previous week, while profits from purchasing piglets were 91.42 yuan/head, down 32.71 yuan/head [13] Feed Industry - The competition in the feed industry has shifted from product competition to value chain competition, leading to accelerated industry consolidation. Market share is increasingly concentrated among leading companies with advantages in R&D, scale, and integrated services [2] - Haida Group is expected to benefit from this trend due to its efficient internal management, effective business incentives, and strong service advantages in the supply chain [2] Broiler Farming Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased, with a weekly price of 7.53 yuan/kg, down 2.71%. The profit from broiler farming was -0.26 yuan/bird, a significant drop of 166.67% from the previous week [29] - The price of eggs was 8.2 yuan/kg, down 6.82% from the previous week [29] Aquaculture Industry - In the marine product sector, prices for sea cucumbers and shrimp remained stable at 120 yuan/kg and 320 yuan/kg respectively. In freshwater products, prices for various fish showed slight increases [45] - The international spot price for fish meal was 2239.77 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [45] Grain and Oil Processing - Grain prices showed mixed trends. As of February 6, corn was priced at 2368.43 yuan/ton (-0.33%), soybeans at 4072.11 yuan/ton (unchanged), and wheat at 2531.11 yuan/ton (+0.05%) [55] - The price of soybean meal was 3159.14 yuan/ton, down 1.19%, while the prices for both soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased by 1.72% and 1.95% respectively [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [1][4]. Core Insights - The total net profit for the tracked companies in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is projected to be CNY 30.949 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20%. The top three sub-sectors by profit growth are animal health (+76%), planting industry (+54%), and pet food (+3%) [3][4]. - The report highlights significant performance disparities among different sectors, with the animal husbandry sector facing challenges due to oversupply and declining prices, particularly in pig farming, where the average price of pigs dropped by 29.9% year-on-year [3][5]. - The pet food sector shows resilience in domestic markets despite a slowdown in overseas growth, with a projected online sales growth of 10.2% in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Animal Husbandry - The pig farming sector is expected to see a net profit of CNY 20.908 billion in 2025, down 26% year-on-year, with significant losses reported in Q4 [5][8]. - The chicken farming sector remains profitable, with white chicken prices stable and yellow chicken prices showing a 9.5% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food sales are projected to grow, with major companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. expected to report net profits of CNY 0.678 billion and CNY 0.433 billion, respectively [3][4]. Planting Industry - The report notes a recovery in edible mushroom prices, with a projected net profit increase of 154% for Zhongxing Junye in 2025 [3][4]. - Blueberry prices have slightly decreased, but companies are expected to maintain profitability through volume sales [3][4]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is projected to see a net profit increase of 76%, driven by new product launches and increased demand for veterinary vaccines [3][4]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is facing challenges with low grain prices, leading to a mixed performance among companies, with Dabeinong expected to report a significant loss [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group, "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development and Wens Foodstuff, and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Shares [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the feed industry is transitioning from product competition to value chain competition, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading companies with advantages in technology, scale, and service [7]. - Haida Group is expected to continue gaining market share due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [7]. - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is undergoing a market-driven capacity reduction, which may stabilize prices in the coming months [8]. Industry Performance Overview - For the week of January 26 to February 1, the agricultural sector saw a 1.82% increase, ranking fifth among sectors, while the CSI 300 index had a slight increase of 0.08% [6][16]. - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with average prices for external three-way pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 12.15, 12.16, and 12.63 yuan/kg respectively, reflecting decreases of 5.08%, 9.66%, and 4.54% [6][26]. - The average pork price increased slightly to 18.61 yuan/kg, up by 0.65% [6][26]. Livestock and Feed Industry - The report indicates that the average profit for self-bred pigs is 25.10 yuan/head, down by 18.25 yuan from the previous week, while the profit for purchased pig farming increased by 8.29 yuan to 124.13 yuan/head [6][26]. - In the poultry sector, the price of white feather chickens rose to 7.74 yuan/kg, a 3.20% increase, and the profit per chicken increased significantly by 550% to 0.39 yuan/chicken [44]. - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, while chicken feed prices were steady at 3.45 yuan/kg [47]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the ongoing consolidation in the feed industry, with a focus on companies that can leverage technological and service advantages [7]. - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift towards R&D and supply chain management as key competitive factors [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhongxing Junye's stock has seen a continuous increase, with a total rise of 8.87% over three days, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company [1] - As of the report date, Zhongxing Junye's stock price is 16.98 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 6.677 billion yuan and a trading volume of 357 million yuan [1] - The company's main business involves the research, industrial cultivation, and sales of edible mushrooms, with the revenue composition being 63.04% from Agaricus bisporus, 35.32% from enoki mushrooms, and smaller contributions from other products [1] Group 2 - According to data, one of the funds under GF Fund has a significant holding in Zhongxing Junye, specifically the GF Quality Life Mixed A Fund, which holds 1.8337 million shares, accounting for 4.85% of the fund's net value [2] - The GF Quality Life Mixed A Fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 3.67 million yuan today, with a total floating profit of 2.536 million yuan during the three-day increase [2] - The fund manager, Wang Peng, has been in position for over 6 years, with the fund's total asset size at 1.092 billion yuan and a best return of 74.86% during his tenure [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The capital expenditure and capacity reduction in the edible mushroom industry are gradually being realized, leading to reduced supply pressure and potential price stabilization for edible mushrooms [1] - Leading companies in the industry have significant advantages in scale, breeding technology, and management, which are expected to improve profitability [1] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis is entering a rapid development phase due to increasing health awareness and advancements in cultivation technology, with companies that have forward-looking capacity and technological layouts likely to show greater growth potential [1] Group 2: Cordyceps Sinensis Market - The natural scarcity of Cordyceps sinensis is increasing, with ongoing advancements in large-scale artificial cultivation [2] - The demand for Cordyceps sinensis is rising due to its various health benefits, with applications expanding in pharmaceuticals, health products, and cosmetics [2] - The supply of wild Cordyceps sinensis is declining, and the continuous advancement of artificial cultivation is improving the industry chain [2] Group 3: Edible Mushroom Industry - The edible mushroom industry is experiencing continuous growth, with a projected CAGR of 6.0% for the national edible mushroom output value from 2019 to 2024 [3] - The market for enoki mushrooms is stabilizing at the bottom price level, with leading companies reducing capacity to alleviate market supply pressure [3] - The profitability of button mushrooms remains stable, with a daily industrial output of 867 tons in 2023, supported by high market share among leading companies [3] - The price of king oyster mushrooms is also stabilizing, with demand supported by household consumption and high-end dining, while leading companies are reducing capital expenditure [3]