证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 27 年 月 日 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 鸣响渠道变革，忙驭万店星辰 核心观点：颠覆传统运营模式，牵引零售业态变革。鸣鸣很忙作为中国量 贩零食赛道龙头企业，牵引本轮折扣业态零售变革，从 2022 年零食很忙 门店数量破千，到 2025 年 11 月末鸣鸣很忙超 2.1 万家门店，高速扩店的 背后是对消费者性价比需求的满足、渠道供应链路的精简。2024 年鸣鸣 很忙达成 393.4 亿元营收，2 年 CAGR 达 203.0%，成为中国最大的休闲 食品饮料连锁零售商，2025 年前三季度营收进一步同比+75.2%至 463.7 亿元，净利润同比+218.8%至 15.6 亿元，带动净利率同比显著+1.5pct 至 3.4%，若加回股份支付费用，经调整净利率同比+1.9pct 至 3.9%。 行业变革：性价比优势立身，精细化运营谋远。中国零售业态持续高速迭 代，弱需求强供给背景下，当前渠道变革更往折扣化方向演变，量贩以" 上 游直采、集中议价、运营提效"重构供应链，率先实现性价比优势。行业 发展前半程，核心比拼扩店速度，经过跑马圈地、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities initiates coverage on Mingming Hen Mang (01768) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's growth potential as a leading snack retailer, with expected earnings elasticity to be gradually released in the coming years [1] Group 1: Competitive Advantages - Strong Store Network: The company has established a comprehensive national store network through a mature franchise system, with a total of 21,041 stores expected by November 30, 2025, covering 28 provinces and 1,341 towns, with 59% of stores located in county towns [1] - Supply Chain Barrier: The company has achieved extreme control over supply chain costs and operational efficiency through a flat procurement model and an efficient logistics network, with inventory turnover days as low as 13.4 days in the first three quarters of 2025, and product prices approximately 25% lower than traditional supermarkets [2] - Digitalization Barrier: The company integrates digital technology throughout the supply chain, managing over 20,000 stores with the largest digital team in China's snack retail sector, enhancing various core processes [2] - Product Matrix Barrier: The company has built a dynamic product matrix with a rich variety of high-quality products, responding quickly to market demands, with over 2,500 quality manufacturers and 3,997 SKUs in stock as of September 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - Market Expansion: The company sees potential for store density increase in regions like Northwest China, accelerating supply chain layout through a "warehouse-first, store-later" strategy [2] - Product Structure Optimization: The company is optimizing its product matrix to improve profitability, supported by vast user data for accurate product forecasting, with a market-validated potential for customized hit products [2] - New Business Exploration: The company is actively exploring a new business model centered around "snacks +", promoting "Zhao Yiming's Money-Saving Supermarket," which combines snacks with essential goods, enhancing shopping choices and profitability [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - Rapid Revenue Growth: From 2022 to 2024, the company achieved a compound annual growth rate of 203% in revenue, with 2025's first three quarters showing revenue of 46.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.2%, and adjusted net profit rising by 240.9% [3] - Franchise Revenue Dominance: Franchise store revenue accounted for 98.9% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on expanding the store network and improving supply chain efficiency [3] - Excellent Supply Chain Management: The company maintains a cash cycle of only 4.3 days and accounts payable turnover days of 9.6 days, significantly lower than traditional retailers, establishing a win-win relationship with suppliers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the snack retail sector, particularly the bulk snack stores represented by "Ming Ming Hen Mang," indicates a shift in consumer habits and market dynamics, positioning these stores as sustainable retail models rather than short-lived trends [2][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" experienced a significant IPO, with the Hong Kong public offering oversubscribed by approximately 1,899 times, raising over 500 billion HKD in frozen funds [3] - On its first trading day, the stock opened at 445 HKD, reflecting an 88.08% increase from the issue price of 236.6 HKD, and closed at 400 HKD, a 69.06% rise [3] - As of February 3, the stock price stabilized between 405 and 408 HKD, maintaining a market capitalization of around 870 to 880 billion HKD [3] Group 2: Financial Health - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, "Ming Ming Hen Mang" reported revenue of 46.37 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.2%, with adjusted net profit soaring by 240.8% to 1.81 billion RMB [5] - The gross profit margin improved from approximately 7.5% in 2022 to 9.7% in 2023, while the net profit margin increased from 1.8% to 3.3% [6][7] - The company is transitioning from a "thin profit" model to a "thicker profit" approach, indicating a shift towards sustainable profitability [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bulk snack retail sector has seen explosive growth, with the number of stores reaching approximately 45,000 by the end of 2025, a significant increase from about 1,800 in 2020 [16][17] - The market size for bulk snacks is projected to exceed 140 billion RMB in GMV by 2024, with the sector's share of the overall snack retail market rising from 7.6% in 2019 to 14% in 2024 [16] - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and its competitor "Hao Xiang Lai" together hold over 70% of the market share, establishing a stable duopoly in the sector [18] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Both "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and "Hao Xiang Lai" are expanding rapidly, with "Ming Ming Hen Mang" surpassing 21,000 stores and "Hao Xiang Lai" exceeding 15,000 stores, covering extensive geographic areas [17][9] - The two companies are well-positioned to capture the growing demand in lower-tier markets, which are expected to account for a significant portion of consumer spending growth by 2030 [18] Group 5: Strategic Insights - The operational model of "Ming Ming Hen Mang" emphasizes high inventory turnover and cost control through a flexible supply chain, which has led to improved gross margins [8] - The company is focusing on expanding its store network and enhancing its product offerings to meet evolving consumer preferences, particularly in lower-tier markets [8][27]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company, "Ming Ming Hen Mang," is a leading player in the casual food and beverage retail sector, focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "Zero Food Busy" and "Zhao Yi Ming Snacks" [6][17]. - The casual food and beverage retail market is expected to grow from RMB 2.9 trillion in 2019 to RMB 3.7 trillion by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.5% [6][41]. - The company has a strong market presence with 19,517 stores across 28 provinces, 59% of which are located in county and town markets, covering 1,341 counties [6][17]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 10,295 million in 2023, RMB 39,344 million in 2024, and reaching RMB 63,164 million by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 140.22% in 2023 and 282.15% in 2024 [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to rise from RMB 217 million in 2023 to RMB 834 million in 2024, and RMB 2,292 million in 2025, with growth rates of 203.45% and 283.44% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 33X, 24X, and 20X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [7]. Market Dynamics - The casual food and beverage retail market is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with the top five chain retailers holding only 6% market share in 2024 [6][55]. - The down-market segment is becoming a key growth driver, with GMV expected to reach RMB 2.3 trillion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.5%, significantly outpacing high-tier markets [6][45]. Competitive Advantages - The company employs a dual strategy of expanding high-tier stores while penetrating lower-tier markets, enhancing its store network through a franchise model [6][9]. - The supply chain and logistics capabilities are robust, with partnerships established with over 2,500 suppliers, allowing for efficient procurement and cost management [6][20]. - The company is transitioning to a full-category "discount supermarket" model, optimizing store formats and expanding product offerings to enhance revenue potential [6][19]. Fundraising and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to utilize raised funds to enhance supply chain capabilities, upgrade store networks, and strengthen brand promotion efforts [6][24]. - Future growth is anticipated through strategic investments and acquisitions, further solidifying the company's market position [6][24]. Valuation and Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 631.64 billion, RMB 798.83 billion, and RMB 924.82 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of RMB 22.92 billion, RMB 30.89 billion, and RMB 37.43 billion [7][8]. - The current market valuation suggests a potential upside of approximately 10% based on the average PEG ratio of comparable companies [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the snack retail industry Core Insights - The snack retail industry is characterized as a "hard discount" retail format that significantly reduces prices compared to traditional supermarkets, achieving approximately 25% lower prices through direct sourcing and streamlined supply chains [4][6] - The industry is rapidly penetrating lower-tier markets, capturing market share from traditional small stores and outdated supermarkets, driven by a flat supply chain and digital management capabilities [4][41] - Future developments in the industry will see the evolution from single snack stores to comprehensive "community discount supermarkets," expanding product categories to include daily necessities and providing a one-stop shopping experience [4][42] Summary by Sections Industry Definition - The snack retail industry is defined as a vertical "hard discount" retail format that separates and revolutionizes traditional supermarket snack sales through concentrated procurement and operational efficiency [5][7] Business Model - The core business model of the snack retail industry is based on "high turnover, low margin," creating a win-win ecosystem through operational efficiency [12][13] Industry History - The development of the snack retail industry can be divided into four stages: exploration (2010-2020), expansion (2021-2022), integration (2023-2024), and quality and efficiency (2025-present) [10][11] Demand Analysis - The Chinese snack and beverage retail market is projected to grow from CNY 3,171.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 4,044.9 billion by 2024, with the snack retail channel being one of the fastest-growing segments [32][34] - Lower-tier cities are expected to be the main growth drivers for the snack retail market, contributing 62% of the GMV by 2024 [34] Competitive Landscape - The industry has formed a dual oligopoly with major players like "Mingming Hen Mang" and "Wancheng Group" controlling over 70% of the market share [23][24] - The competitive focus has shifted from store quantity to supply chain efficiency and brand development [29][30] Future Opportunities - The industry is expected to continue its deep penetration into lower-tier markets, leveraging the combination of brand and low prices to capture market share from traditional stores [41] - The transition to "community discount supermarkets" will create new growth opportunities by expanding product offerings [42][44] Supply Chain Efficiency - The industry's competitive advantage lies in its streamlined supply chain, which significantly reduces markup rates compared to traditional retail formats [45]

1月28日，中国的休闲食品饮料连锁零售行业迎来了一个重要的时刻：鸣鸣很忙在香港证券交易所挂牌 上市。零食很忙、赵一鸣零食合并而成的量贩零食巨头，以2.1万家门店、年交易额超过660亿港元的规 模，获得36.70亿港元的融资。 全国各个城市的街头出现了越来越多红黄相间的折扣小吃店，成为了年轻人新的打卡地、社区商业标 配。 爱企查数据表明，全国近12万家零食店，处在开业状态的只有不到6万家，接近一半的零食店在开业两 年内难以坚持下去，纷纷关店歇业，加盟商和个体店主由最初的热情高涨变为焦虑观望。零食店这个看 上去很火的生意，到底是谁的蜜糖，又是谁的砒霜呢？ 冰火交织的零食行业 1、头部品牌资本热浪 2026年1月28日，"鸣鸣很忙"在港交所挂牌上市，并且成为"量贩零食第一股"。零食量贩行业由此进入 了资本化的全新阶段，而这一切都源于零食很忙、赵一鸣零食两大品牌的强强联合。 图 源：网络 据悉，零食折扣店在2019—2024年期间年均复合增长率达到38%，在未来仍然有很大的潜力。鸣鸣很忙 此次上市获得腾讯、淡马锡等8家顶级基石投资者合计约15亿港元的认购，认购倍数超过1500倍。 从消费者的角度看，各个店里的零食差别 ...

Group 1 - The company "Mingming Hen Mang" is a leading player in China's leisure food and beverage retail industry, projected to achieve a GMV of 55.5 billion yuan and operate nearly 15,000 stores in 2024, leading the market [1] - The industry is experiencing structural changes, with a shift towards specialized retail models, which are growing at a CAGR of approximately 14% from 2019 to 2024, while the market continues to penetrate lower-tier cities [1] - China's per capita snack consumption and expenditure have significant room for growth compared to developed countries, indicating a high ceiling for the industry [1] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated rapid financial growth, with revenue reaching 39.344 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 282.15%, and a net profit of 834 million yuan, up 283.44% [2] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin improved from 7.45% and 1.67% in 2022 to 9.73% and 3.36% in the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing effective scale and operational efficiency [2] - A refined operational system, brand marketing upgrades, and efficient supply chain management have created a strong competitive advantage for the company [2] Group 3 - The company is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value deepening," with strong growth certainty and ample space for development, projecting revenues of 64.5 billion, 82.2 billion, and 94.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 2.3 billion, 3 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 176%, 31%, and 24% [3] - Given the sustained high demand in the leisure snack industry and the company's prominent market position, it has been assigned a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [1][27]. Core Insights - The company, Mingming Hen Mang, is a leading player in the Chinese snack retail sector, with a projected revenue of 39.34 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 282.15% [1][27]. - The company has successfully merged its two brands, "Zhao Yiming Snacks" and "Snacks Are Busy," to enhance market coverage and operational efficiency [8][9]. - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes, with a shift towards specialized wholesale models, which are growing faster than traditional supermarkets [7][27]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 10.30 billion RMB in 2023, with a forecasted increase to 39.34 billion RMB in 2024, and further growth to 64.52 billion RMB in 2025 [1][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 217.43 million RMB in 2023 to 833.70 million RMB in 2024, and to 2.30 billion RMB in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [1][13]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 7.45% in 2022 to 9.73% in the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing enhanced profitability [20][27]. Market Position - Mingming Hen Mang is positioned as the largest snack retail chain in China, with a market share of 1.5% and a GMV of 55.5 billion RMB in 2024 [23][27]. - The company operates approximately 15,000 stores, with a significant expansion plan that includes a projected increase in store count to over 19,500 by the end of 2025 [9][27]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a duopoly between Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, both of which are rapidly expanding their market presence [22][27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [1]. Core Insights - The company, Ming Ming Hen Mang, is a leading player in the Chinese snack retail sector, projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with a forecasted revenue of CNY 39.34 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 282.15% [7][27]. - The company has successfully merged its two brands, "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yi Ming Snacks," to enhance market presence and operational efficiency, with a total of nearly 15,000 stores expected by 2024 [8][9]. - The snack retail market in China is experiencing structural changes, with a shift towards specialized retail models, which are growing faster than traditional supermarkets [7][19]. Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid revenue growth from CNY 42.86 billion in 2022 to CNY 393.44 billion in 2024, with a net profit increase from CNY 0.72 billion to CNY 8.34 billion during the same period [13][27]. - The gross margin improved from 7.45% in 2022 to 9.73% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating enhanced profitability alongside rapid expansion [20][27]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of CNY 64.52 billion, CNY 82.20 billion, and CNY 94.39 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of CNY 23 billion, CNY 30 billion, and CNY 37 billion [27][29]. Market Position - Ming Ming Hen Mang holds a market share of 1.5% in the snack retail sector, leading the industry with a GMV of CNY 55.5 billion in 2024 [23][24]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing market expansion, with a significant increase in store count from 6,585 at the end of 2023 to an expected 19,517 by the end of 2025 [9][27].

Core Viewpoint - Mingming Hen Mang has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 90 billion, marking the largest IPO in the domestic mass snack sector [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang was formed through the merger of two brands, "Zero Snacks" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks," which began operations in 2017 and 2019 respectively, and has since embarked on an aggressive expansion strategy [4]. - The company achieved revenues of CNY 42.86 billion, CNY 102.95 billion, and CNY 393.44 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203.0% [4]. - Adjusted net profits for the same period were CNY 0.82 billion, CNY 2.35 billion, and CNY 9.13 billion, with a CAGR of 234.6% [4]. - By 2024, the number of stores is expected to exceed 10,000, reaching 21,000 by November 2025, covering 28 provinces and various city tiers in China [4]. Group 2: Market Position - Mingming Hen Mang is the largest chain retailer of leisure food and beverages in China, holding a 1.5% market share based on GMV for 2024 [4]. - The company ranks fourth among food and beverage chain retailers in China, with a 0.8% market share [4]. Group 3: Pricing Strategy - The company is known for its low prices, with average product prices approximately 25% lower than those in regular supermarkets [5]. - Examples of pricing include CNY 1.2 for bottled water, CNY 0.8 for chocolate, and CNY 2.2 for mixed nuts [5]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - Mingming Hen Mang collaborates with over 2,500 food manufacturers, eliminating intermediaries and enhancing bargaining power due to its extensive store network [6]. - The company has established 48 smart warehousing centers across the country, enabling efficient logistics with a delivery radius of 300 kilometers [6]. - The average inventory turnover period is approximately 11.6 days, indicating high operational efficiency in the retail sector [6]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - For the first three quarters of 2025, Mingming Hen Mang reported revenues of CNY 463.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.2% [7]. - The Chinese leisure food and beverage retail market is projected to grow from CNY 2.9 trillion in 2019 to CNY 3.7 trillion in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.5% [7]. - The down-market segment is expected to reach a GMV of CNY 2.3 trillion by 2024, with a CAGR of 6.5% from 2019 to 2024 [7]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - Recent performance reports from competitors like Three Squirrels and Good Products indicate significant losses, attributed to structural adjustments in store operations [8][9]. - The rise of discount snack brands has intensified competition, impacting mid-to-high-end brands [10]. - The market is experiencing a shift, with discount brands capturing market share, leading to a challenging environment for traditional brands [10]. Group 7: Challenges Ahead - The industry faces increased competition, with a duopoly emerging in the discount snack sector, leading to pressure on margins and profitability [10][11]. - The reliance on a low-price model poses risks as store expansion slows, necessitating improvements in product categories and brand development to enhance profitability [11]. - Management of franchise operations and market saturation are significant challenges, with high store density in some regions affecting sales performance [11].