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万辰集团20250824
2025-08-24 14:47
万辰集团 20250824 摘要 万辰集团量贩零食业务 2024 年营收达 317.9 亿元,占总收入 98.3%, 门店数量 14,196 家,仅次于鸣鸣很忙,规模效应显著,但仍有较大下 沉和加密潜力,尤其在南方、东北及二线城市,并计划出海东南亚市场。 公司积极试水折扣超市转型,作为第二增长曲线,通过扩大经营面积和 增加非零食品类,如蛋挞、烤肠、日化个护等,满足消费者多品类需求, 提升同店效益,目前已优于传统社区商超和便利店业态。 公司通过收购四大区域型零食连锁品牌及整合自有品牌陆小馋,在量贩 零食渠道获得领先地位,同时自有原材料种植基地及规模化生产基地提 供强大的供应链支持,含羞草作为第四大临时供应商,年采购额达 5 亿 元。 公司通过核心高管持股和业务合伙人模式,充分调动团队积极性,创始 人家族及核心高管合计持股 58.1%,总经理王泽宁穿透持股 30.23%, 深度绑定有助于确保管理层与公司利益一致,提高运营效率。 东南亚零食市场复合年增长率(CAGR)高于中国,渠道重构为量贩零 食渗透率提升提供契机,中国上游零食企业积极探索东南亚供应链建设, 有助于降低运营成本,复制国内渠道竞争优势。 Q&A 万辰 ...
良品铺子卖身,一个零食时代结束了
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-18 14:16
Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Liangpinpuzi by Changjiang International Trade Group marks a significant shift in the company's ownership structure, transitioning from a founder-led model to a state-owned enterprise, amidst ongoing financial struggles and a challenging market environment [1][4][10]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The total transaction price for the share transfer agreements is 1.046 billion yuan, with Changjiang Guomao set to hold 21% of Liangpinpuzi's shares post-transfer [2][3]. - If both agreements are executed successfully, Changjiang Guomao will directly hold 120,259,900 shares, representing 29.99% of the total share capital, for a total price of 1.485 billion yuan [4]. - Prior to the transaction, the shareholding structure included Ningbo Hanyi with 35.23% and Dayong with 18.16%, which will change significantly post-acquisition [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Liangpinpuzi's stock price was 13.71 yuan before suspension, with a market capitalization of 5.5 billion yuan. After resuming trading, the stock price slightly decreased to 13.69 yuan, with a market cap of 5.49 billion yuan [6]. - The company is expected to report a net loss of 75 million to 105 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since going public [9]. Group 3: Market Context and Challenges - Liangpinpuzi has faced significant operational challenges, transitioning from a leading snack brand to a company seeking survival, with questions about the value of the acquisition [7][10]. - The acquisition by a state-owned entity is seen as a potential lifeline, given the financial backing and logistical support from Changjiang Guomao, which operates in various financial and logistics sectors [12][13]. - The company has struggled with strategic direction, experiencing a decline in revenue for the first time in a decade, with 2023 revenue dropping to 8.046 billion yuan, a nearly 15% decrease year-on-year [28]. Group 4: Historical Performance and Strategic Shifts - Liangpinpuzi's history can be divided into three phases: rapid growth from 2006 to 2016, a high-end positioning strategy from 2017 to 2022, and a recent phase of strategic ambiguity and performance decline since 2023 [22][24][26]. - The company has attempted to pivot from high-end snacks to a focus on natural and healthy snacks, launching new products under the "natural health new snacks" concept [53][55]. - Despite these efforts, the company has faced criticism for lacking innovation and failing to effectively compete with emerging low-cost snack brands [38][40].
万辰集团(300972):从草根观察看量贩零食扩品类之路
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as the purest player in the hard discount sector, being the second-largest listed company in the bulk snack industry, with strong scale effects and bargaining power, indicating promising growth potential through store expansion and category diversification [1][4]. Industry Trends - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformation, with the expansion of bulk snack categories being a necessary choice for industry development. The industry has entered a duopoly competition landscape, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt the competitive dynamics [2]. - The bulk snack category features high gross margins and impulsive consumer behavior, with average transaction values typically ranging from 20 to 30 yuan, making it challenging to exceed 100 yuan [2]. - The discount retail format currently accounts for only about 4% of the market in China, compared to over 40% in Europe and more than 20% in the U.S., indicating substantial room for growth [2]. Company Strategy - The company plans to expand into categories such as trendy toys, frozen products, baked goods, and marinated foods, which are expected to become important growth directions. The strategy includes enhancing consumer stickiness through a "high-frequency drives low-frequency" approach and addressing management challenges associated with high-frequency categories [2][3]. - The company aims to launch the "Trendy Toy 630 Plan" to broaden its trendy toy product pool and upgrade the display of trendy toy shelves, focusing on high efficiency and differentiated offerings [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 54 billion, 64.3 billion, and 73.4 billion yuan, with net profits of 936 million, 1.292 billion, and 1.602 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, suggesting significant potential for market capitalization growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The company is recognized for its scale, first-mover advantage, and management capabilities, with over 15,000 stores enhancing its bargaining power within the supply chain. As subsidy expenses decrease, there is potential for net profit margin improvement [4].
万辰集团(300972):从草根观察看量贩零食扩品类之路
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-14 13:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is considered the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack market, possessing scale, first-mover, and management advantages. The company has over 15,000 stores, strong bargaining power in the supply chain, and potential for improved net profit margins as subsidy costs decrease. Additionally, the bulk snack stores effectively meet the consumption needs of lower-tier markets, allowing for continuous category expansion and significant growth potential [2][3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 540 billion, 643 billion, and 734 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.36 billion, 12.92 billion, and 16.02 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33 and 24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating substantial room for market capitalization growth due to the company's rarity and growth potential [3][4]. Category Expansion - The company is transitioning from a "snack+" model to a "discount supermarket" model, driven by the need to address the challenges of scale inefficiency and low-price competition in the retail sector. The bulk snack channel has become a significant player in the snack category, with expectations of revenue exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2025. The industry is moving towards a dual oligopoly competition structure, where leading companies have a competitive edge due to their scale and first-mover advantages [12][13][14]. Consumer Demand and Market Position - The bulk snack channel meets consumer demands for "more, faster, better, and cheaper," with a typical customer price point of 20-30 yuan. The channel's products are priced at 70-80% of those in other channels, making it an attractive option for consumers. The company aims to leverage its scale and bargaining power to capture market share in lower-tier cities [15][16][20]. Store Experience and Product Offering - The company's stores are designed to enhance consumer experience, featuring clear product area divisions and engaging layouts that encourage deeper exploration of the store. The introduction of diverse product categories, including fresh food, baked goods, and toys, aims to create a one-stop shopping experience that meets various consumer needs [63][68][70].
新股速递|坚果霸主开拓H股新战场:解码三只松鼠106亿营收背后的“爆款+供应链”双引擎
贝塔投资智库· 2025-07-11 03:59
Company Overview - Three Squirrels (300783.SH) was founded in 2012 and is an innovative manufacturing self-owned brand retailer focused on providing high-quality and cost-effective snacks to consumers. The product range includes nuts, baked goods, mixed snacks, meat products, and dried fruits, along with a children's snack brand "Little Deer Blue" [1] - The company has diversified sales channels, covering major e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Taobao online, and offline through Squirrel Feeding Stores and alliance stores. It submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 25, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the sponsor [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 was 72.93 billion, 71.15 billion, 106.22 billion, and 37.23 billion RMB respectively [4] - The revenue decline in 2023 was primarily due to a reduction in SKU count from over 1000 at the end of 2022 to around 600 in 2023, and a decrease in revenue contribution from traditional e-commerce platforms [5] - In 2024, revenue increased by 49.3%, driven by explosive growth in short video e-commerce channels and the expansion of multiple product categories and brands, with "Little Deer Blue" revenue growing by 58.8% [6] - Gross profit margins for 2022, 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 were 26.2%, 22.7%, 23.8%, and 26.7% respectively [7] - Net profit for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 was 1.29 billion, 2.19 billion, 4.07 billion, and 2.39 billion RMB respectively, with a net profit margin of 1.8%, 3.1%, 3.8%, and 6.4% [11] Revenue Breakdown - In 2022, the revenue breakdown by product category was as follows: nuts (56.3%), baked goods (15.6%), mixed snacks (12.0%), meat products (9.5%), and dried fruits (4.6%) [5] - The decline in gross profit margin in 2023 was attributed to high raw material prices and increased costs associated with short video e-commerce channels [9] Operational Efficiency - As of Q1 2025, inventory decreased by 62% to 790 million RMB, and accounts payable decreased by 68% to 670 million RMB, indicating effective inventory management [12] - The company expanded its offline distribution, with revenue from offline distributors growing by 46.4% to 1.48 billion RMB in 2024 [12] Competitive Advantages - Three Squirrels maintains a high repurchase rate of 35-40%, with its children's snack brand "Little Deer Blue" also achieving a repurchase rate of around 35% [15] - The company has developed a multi-channel sales system that integrates online and offline channels, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty [15] - The company has streamlined its SKU count from over 1000 to around 400, focusing resources on creating best-selling products [17] - Over 70% of revenue comes from self-owned brands, which typically offer higher profit margins and pricing power [18] - The company operates with a low fixed asset ratio of 12.45%, allowing for flexible supply chain management and rapid expansion [20] Industry Context - The Chinese snack food industry has seen continuous growth, with market size increasing from 410 billion RMB in 2010 to 1.17 trillion RMB in 2022, and projected to reach 1.24 trillion RMB by 2027 [28] - Three Squirrels ranks as the largest domestic snack food company in China by sales, with a significant market share in the nut segment [28]
零食三巨头,被后浪掀翻
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-10 04:32
Core Viewpoint - The traditional snack giants are facing a survival crisis as they struggle against the rise of low-cost snack brands, leading to significant declines in revenue and profit margins [1][2][20]. Group 1: Performance of Traditional Snack Giants - Laiyifen reported a double-digit decline in both revenue and net profit in its 2024 annual report, marking the largest loss since its IPO [1] - Good Products also experienced its first annual loss since its listing in 2020 [1] - Three squirrels terminated the acquisition of Ailingshi and announced a strategic partnership with Snack Selection, while facing legal challenges from Ailingshi [1][2] Group 2: Rise of Low-Cost Snack Brands - Low-cost snack brands are rapidly gaining market share through a "low-margin, high-volume" model, posing unprecedented challenges to traditional snack companies [2] - Brands like "Very Busy" and "Snack Revolution" have emerged, focusing on price competitiveness and direct factory connections, undermining the brand premium of traditional players [3][4] Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are becoming more rational, with a decreasing willingness to pay a premium for brands [4] - The perception of high prices and product homogeneity among traditional brands is leading to a loss of consumer loyalty [3][4] Group 4: Challenges Faced by Traditional Giants - Three Squirrels heavily relies on online channels, with 70% of its revenue still coming from third-party e-commerce platforms in 2024 [5] - The company aimed for a "ten-thousand store plan" by 2024 but only managed to open 333 stores, closing 549 in 2022 alone [6] - Laiyifen's store count decreased by 16.28% from 2023 to 2024, highlighting the struggles of traditional retail models [6] Group 5: Profitability Issues in the Low-Cost Segment - Leading low-cost brands like "Wancheng" and "Mingming Very Busy" have achieved rapid growth but maintain low profit margins of 0.91% and 2.1% respectively [7][8] - The franchise model prevalent in low-cost brands raises concerns about sustainability, as profitability for franchisees is crucial for continued expansion [8] Group 6: Future Directions for Traditional Giants - Traditional snack companies are exploring new product lines and pricing strategies to combat the low-cost competition, with Good Products initiating a significant price reduction across 300 products [14] - However, this price-cutting strategy risks damaging brand value and consumer trust [14] - The need for operational upgrades and a complete supply chain overhaul is emphasized as essential for survival in the evolving market [17][20] Group 7: New Business Models - Three Squirrels has opened its first lifestyle store, expanding beyond snacks to include a variety of products, indicating a shift towards a more comprehensive retail approach [18] - The company is also developing a convenience store model, focusing on a low-margin strategy with a diverse product mix [18] Group 8: Conclusion - The snack industry is undergoing a transformation where traditional high-end branding is losing relevance, and the focus is shifting towards affordability and value [20] - The future of the snack market will favor brands that can deliver genuine value to consumers, necessitating a reevaluation of cost structures and value propositions by traditional giants [20]
齐云山食品赴港上市:品类天花板下估值瓶颈难破 量贩零食驱动增长成色几何?
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-07-09 08:45
Core Viewpoint - The snack company Qiyunshan Food Co., Ltd. is set to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, following the footsteps of other snack companies, but faces challenges due to its limited market share and product diversity [1][5]. Financial Performance - Qiyunshan Food's revenue for 2022-2024 is projected to be CNY 217 million, CNY 247 million, and CNY 339 million, with net profits of CNY 25.6 million, CNY 23.7 million, and CNY 53.2 million respectively [1]. - The company's flagship product, the South Jujube Cake, accounts for approximately 86.5% of total sales in 2022, with sales volumes of 4,677.7 tons, 5,160.2 tons, and 7,485.8 tons for the years 2022-2024 [2]. Market Position - Qiyunshan Food holds a market share of about 0.63% in the fruit snack sector, significantly lower than competitors like Liuliu Fruit Garden, which has a market share of 2.61% [1]. - The overall snack market in China is expected to grow from CNY 1,344 billion in 2024 to CNY 1,755.8 billion by 2029, with the fruit snack market growing at a rate of 8.7% [5]. Product and Sales Channels - The company relies heavily on its main product, the South Jujube Cake, which contributes 88.7% to total revenue in 2022 [2]. - Offline sales through distributors account for 86.2% of total revenue in 2022, with a significant increase in revenue from major clients [6][8]. Regional Sales - Approximately one-third of Qiyunshan Food's revenue comes from its home province of Jiangxi, with neighboring provinces contributing significantly to sales growth [4]. - The company has limited geographical reach, with no presence in major northern cities [4]. Pricing and Profitability - The average selling price of the South Jujube Cake has decreased from CNY 41.2 per kg in 2022 to CNY 39.3 per kg in 2024, while procurement costs have risen [8]. - The overall gross margin for the company has declined to 48.6% in 2024, indicating pressure on profitability [8]. Management and Shareholder Structure - The core management team, consisting of six individuals, controls approximately 68.67% of Qiyunshan Food's shares and has received significant dividends, amounting to over CNY 30 million [9].
三只松鼠宣布与爱零食“分手” 量贩零食赛道竞争加剧
Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Hunan Ailing Snack Technology Co., Ltd. by Three Squirrels has been terminated due to disagreements on key terms, which reflects the competitive landscape in the snack retail sector [2][3][4] Company Summary - Three Squirrels announced the termination of the acquisition of Ailing Snack, stating that it would not have a significant adverse impact on its operations or future strategic plans [2] - The acquisition was initially proposed at a maximum price of 200 million yuan, indicating a valuation below 400 million yuan for Ailing Snack [4] - Ailing Snack, founded in 2020, has over 2,000 stores and ranked fifth in the number of snack store brands in China as of November 2023 [3] Industry Summary - The snack retail sector is experiencing intense competition, affecting profitability and operational decisions for companies like Three Squirrels [2][4] - The shift towards bulk snack retailing is seen as a strategic move by Three Squirrels to adapt to market pressures and explore growth opportunities [5] - The overall revenue for Three Squirrels has fluctuated, with a notable decline from 2019 to 2023, but is projected to rebound to over 10 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] - The competitive landscape is challenging for non-leading snack brands, with many facing difficulties in maintaining store operations and profitability [7]
“好想来”母公司万辰集团董事长解除留置,量贩零食“双雄”竞争白热化
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-05-27 05:59
Group 1 - The chairman of Wancheng Group, Wang Jiankun, has had his detention lifted, allowing him to resume his duties, which is expected to stabilize the company's operations [1] - During Wang's detention, Wancheng Group's stock price increased significantly, rising from 94.99 yuan per share to a peak of 156.85 yuan per share, marking a gain of over 65% [1] - Wancheng Group reported a total of over 15,000 signed stores by the end of Q1, with a rapid opening pace, particularly in its "Haoxianglai" brand, which has over 10,000 stores [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the rapid expansion, Wancheng Group's revenue for the last year was 32.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than its main competitor, Mingming Hen Mang, which reported 39.3 billion yuan [2] - Wancheng Group's net profit for the last year was approximately 294 million yuan, while Mingming Hen Mang's adjusted net profit reached 913 million yuan, highlighting a substantial profitability gap [2] - In Q1, Wancheng Group achieved a revenue of 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.02%, and a net profit of approximately 215 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 3344.13% [5] Group 3 - The company aims to enhance its supply chain efficiency and profitability through a value chain restructuring mechanism that includes direct procurement and centralized pricing [6] - Wancheng Group plans to continue investing in its supply chain, logistics, brand development, and digital capabilities to improve profit margins and operational efficiency [6] - The company acknowledges the need to maintain growth momentum in the face of a slowing store opening pace and is focused on optimizing its operational strategies [5][6]
三只松鼠A+H双上市背后,利润暴跌22%,万店梦碎生死赌局!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 05:06
Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, is advancing its plans for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having submitted its application and received acceptance from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, amidst challenges in the snack food industry and a shift in its business model [1][4][14]. Company Development - Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels quickly capitalized on e-commerce trends, achieving significant sales growth and market recognition, particularly in the nut category [4][6]. - The company expanded its product range beyond nuts to over 600 SKUs and attempted to establish a multi-channel presence through offline stores [6][9]. - However, the company faced challenges such as reliance on contract manufacturers leading to food safety issues and a high dependency on a single product category, nuts, which accounted for over 60% of revenue [8][9]. Financial Performance - Three Squirrels experienced a decline in revenue from 101.73 billion yuan in 2019 to 71.15 billion yuan in 2023, with a nearly 70% drop in market capitalization [9]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.62 billion yuan, a 49.3% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 407.74 million yuan, an 85.51% increase [10][12]. - The company initiated a strategic transformation in 2022, focusing on self-production and a shift to a "D+N" model, which contributed to a "V-shaped rebound" in 2024 [10][12]. Market Challenges - The snack food industry is experiencing intense competition from low-cost brands, forcing Three Squirrels to consider mergers and acquisitions to maintain market share [18][21]. - The company's sales expenses increased significantly, with a 50.92% rise to 1.868 billion yuan, impacting profit margins [20][21]. - The company is also facing challenges in expanding its offline presence, with only 3% of its store expansion plan realized [9][18]. Future Outlook - The IPO aims to raise funds for supply chain upgrades (40%), channel expansion (30%), product innovation (20%), and strategic acquisitions (5%) [14]. - The company has set an ambitious target of reaching 20 billion yuan in revenue by 2026, which could position it as a leader in the global snack food market if successful [21].