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食品饮料行业研究周报:消费预期有望逐步回升,关注大众品修复机会-2025-03-06
Shengang Securities· 2025-03-06 05:17
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector as consumer expectations are expected to gradually recover [1][18]. Core Insights - Consumer expectations are anticipated to improve, with leading liquor manufacturers adjusting their growth strategies. The food and beverage index has shown significant gains recently, and low-valuation cyclical sectors are likely to gain market attention [1][18]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with increased supply, viewing, and transaction volumes in key cities post-Spring Festival, which may boost consumer sentiment and spending [1][18]. - The report highlights that major liquor companies have announced inventory control measures, which may stabilize prices in the white liquor sector. However, price and inventory pressures still exist, and the industry is expected to undergo a destocking phase [2][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage index rose by 1.77% in the last week, ranking third among 31 sectors, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.99%. For the month, the index increased by 4.14%, ranking 11th, and year-to-date, it has decreased by 2.98%, ranking 24th [11][17]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends identifying investment targets in the white liquor sector based on scene engagement, regional optimization, channel clearing, and dividend rate enhancement. Specific companies to watch include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [4][29]. - It also suggests focusing on beer companies like Yanjing Beer that may benefit from operational improvements and cost reductions. Additionally, companies in the seasoning and frozen food sectors, such as Haitian Flavoring and Anqi Yeast, are highlighted for their resilient performance [4][29]. - The report emphasizes the potential of snack food companies like Youyi Food and Three Squirrels, as well as dairy companies like Yili Group, to benefit from channel expansion and new product development [4][29]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the price of fresh milk has stabilized after a 0.3% increase in January, ending a 16-month decline, which may positively impact the dairy sector [3][27]. - The performance of the beer sector is under pressure, with Budweiser Asia's revenue expected to decline by 8.9% in 2024, and a 14.8% drop in net profit is anticipated [3][27].