Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, zinc prices are expected to remain bearish as domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to factors such as the dovish atmosphere of the Federal Reserve, high concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market, and strong overall commodity sentiment [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Zinc Index closed down 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - only trading position of 234,600 lots. LME Zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 188,300 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,770 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 20 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 70 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 76 US dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 599,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, domestic zinc ore production was 322,500 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 0.8%. The net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of - 32.9%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 13.8% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, zinc ingot production was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. The net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively. In June 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In June 2025, the supply - demand gap of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 15,400 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to June was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, the supply - demand gap of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 67,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to April was a surplus of 127,700 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was relatively high, the net long position of investment funds in LME Zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased, showing a bullish trend from the position perspective [69].