Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The oil market is entering a phase of validating expectations of a loosening fundamental outlook, with a divergence in near-term and long-term expectations reflected in the unusual "smile" shape of the oil futures curve since April [1] - Despite OPEC+ initiating an increase in production, actual output has decreased, and the impact of tariffs on oil consumption has yet to materialize, leading to persistently low oil inventories [1] - The anticipated increase in production by OPEC+ over the next two months raises concerns about potential oversupply in the long term due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2: Price Projections - The downward price space for oil may be limited, as current price levels challenge marginal producers, and the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. continues to decline [2] - Global offshore production growth is expected to fall short of projections, which may alleviate some supply surplus pressures, with Brent crude oil prices projected to fluctuate between $65 and $70 per barrel for the year [2] Group 3: Black Metals Overview - Black metal prices are experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with signs of weakening demand in the steel sector, particularly during the May Day holiday [3] - Although steel inventory levels are low, the limited recovery in demand may restrict the ability of the industry to replenish stocks, leading to potential downward adjustments in black metal prices [3] - The iron and steel production is at a high level, but the growth rate is beginning to slow, indicating a possible significant adjustment in the black metal sector by the end of Q2 [3] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Analysis - Copper prices are highly influenced by macroeconomic expectations, but the fundamental data remains resilient, with ongoing destocking of copper and aluminum inventories [4] - The processing rates for copper and aluminum indicate stable downstream demand, although the sustainability of aluminum exports and copper end-product demand is still under observation as the market approaches a seasonal slowdown [4]