期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 25 日 0 / 45 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 贵金属：美联储官员释放降息信号，金银震荡中等待数据指引 16 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜：美降息预期提高，铜价受到支撑 17 | | | | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 | 关注仓单转现 | 18 | | 电解铝：美联储降息预期强化 | 沪铝企稳反弹 | 19 | | 铸造铝合金：宏观预期改善 | 铝合金随铝价反弹 | 19 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 20 | | | | | | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 价格震荡运行 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小幅收涨 国内糖价略偏强 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力继续增加 生猪价格持续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水 ...

（来源：福能期货） 01 重点关注 碳酸锂 近期碳酸锂价格回调主要受三大因素影响：一是广期所实施限仓令；二是SMM周度库存去库量从前值 3406吨收窄至2052吨，去库动能不及预期；三是宁德枧下窝矿山提前复产传闻发酵。短期锂价或受情绪 降温延续弱势运行，但当前供需格局已较上半年显著改善，支撑价格底部区间上移至8万上方，关注后 续宁德枧下窝矿山复产进度。 原油 隔夜，WTI 01月合约收于58.84美元/桶，上涨1.34%，布伦特 01月合约收于63.37美元/桶，上涨1.29%。 美、乌表示会谈有所进展，但未表明计划的具体修改，且仍有分歧存在，欧盟团体提出修改后的和平计 划遭俄拒绝，市场等待进一步结果。地缘扰动下国际油价上涨。预计INE原油跟随修复。加勒比海附近 仍有多个美军战斗群，后续关注俄乌和平计划进展和委内瑞拉地缘局势变化。 双焦 甘其毛都口岸自24日凌晨开始持续降雪，受恶劣天气影响24日下午14时左右国内方向外调停止。国内主 产区煤矿开工率小幅回升，国内炼焦煤供应缓慢恢复。市场情绪谨慎偏弱，成交活跃度降低，部分矿端 报价继续小幅下调。短期内煤焦需求仍有支撑，不过随着钢厂陆续减产检修，对原料价格的支撑力 ...

首席点评： 权益商品反弹在即 11 月 24 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，釜山会晤以来，中美关系总体稳定向好，受到两 国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明，中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过实践反复验证的常识，中美"相互成就、共同繁 荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩 问题清单，争取更多积极进展，为中美关系打开新的合作空间。习近平阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场，强调台湾回 归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分。中美曾并肩抗击法西斯和军国主义，当前更应该共同维护好二战胜利成果。 重点品种：股指、双焦、原油 股指：美国三大指数明显反弹，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，中小盘股经过多日调整后明显反弹，国防军工和传媒板块 领涨，石油石化和煤炭板块领跌，市场成交额 1.74 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 21 日融资余额减少 292.08 亿元至 24451.78 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长期方向。 11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短 线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业 ...

报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：短期调整不改慢牛趋势 据证券时报，近期股市回调，大量资金借道 ETF 越跌越买、逆市加仓。近一周以 来（11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日），全市场股票型 ETF 获得超 700 亿元资金净流 入，仅 11 月 21 日便有超 400 亿元资金借道 ETF"抄底"。多家基金公司认为， 美联储降息预期下降、AI 泡沫担忧升温等外部因素是近期市场回调的主因，不 过，在国内科技产业和"反内卷"政策的支持下，中国资产"慢牛"仍然可期。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 股指：美国三大指数反弹，上一交易日股指大幅回落，有色金属和电力设备 板块领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 20 日融资余额减少 59.39 亿元至 24743.85 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板 块是长期方向。11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、 事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、小盘 股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性信号进一步明 朗前，大盘价值仍可能阶段性占优。临近年底，资 ...

首席点评： 短期调整不改慢牛趋势 据证券时报，近期股市回调，大量资金借道 ETF 越跌越买、逆市加仓。近一周以来（ 11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日），全市场 股票型 ETF 获得超 700 亿元资金净流入，仅 11 月 21 日便有超 400 亿元资金借道 ETF "抄底"。多家基金公司认为，美联储 降息预期下降、 AI 泡沫担忧升温等外部因素是近期市场回调的主因，不过，在国内科技产业和"反内卷"政策的支持下，中 国资产"慢牛"仍然可期。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 股指：美国三大指数反弹，上一交易日股指大幅回落，有色金属和电力设备板块领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金 方面， 11 月 20 日融资余额减少 59.39 亿元至 24743.85 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长期方 向。 11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科 技业绩落地、小盘股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性信号进一步明朗前，大盘价值仍可能 阶段性占优。临近年底，资金相对谨慎，市场风格相较三季度也更为均衡。我们认为在经济 ...

今日导读>> 美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决 策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 03 江苏7市启动重污染天气黄色预警 产业新闻 01 FOMC在10月会议上以10比2的投票结果通过了降息25个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 分析师解读：美联储降息预期降温，从之前的60%的概率下降到30%左右，美元仍处于高位，利空大宗 商品市场价格，利空钢价走势。 02 全球铁矿石产量突破历史新高 在海外国家积极布局下，一大批新增产能项目陆续投产或即将投产，当前全球铁矿石市场正处于一个产 能释放周期的关键阶段。得益于此，过去两年全球铁矿石产量逐年增加，2025年同比增量较2024年有所 减少。全球矿山数据库最新结果显示，2025年全球铁矿石产量约为26.13亿吨，同比增加3298万吨。 钢材走势分析 01 建材：昨日价格主稳个跌 受双焦大幅下跌拖累，负反馈加剧，成本端支撑走弱，而本周建材产量增加7.96至207.96万吨，库存下 降22.83至553.34万吨，原料走弱给钢厂让利，铁水流向建材生产，建筑钢材产量增加，而 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：A 股再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：消息扰动下，债市表现分化 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 21 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：利多带动有限 粕类继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续震荡 国内糖价震荡略涨 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货略有回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：现货价格高位回调，盘面偏弱运行 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：美国非农信号不一 金银延续震荡 16 | | --- | | 铜：短期关注下方支撑 17 | | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 关注仓单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of NVIDIA is expected to drive a rebound in technology stocks, and the market may rebound due to the influence of US stocks and brokerage mergers [18][23]. - The risk appetite in the bond market has recovered, and the bond market remains weakly stable, but caution is needed regarding potential short - term trading opportunities [24][25]. - For various commodities, different trends are presented. For example, protein meal prices are gradually falling due to supply pressure, while sugar prices are expected to be range - bound both internationally and domestically [28][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: NVIDIA's strong performance may drive a rebound in technology stocks. The market showed support on Wednesday, with significant sector differentiation. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads on dips [18][21][23]. - **Treasury Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, and the bond market is weakly stable. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, take profit on previous (TL - 3T) positions, and try to go long on the T - contract current - quarter to next - quarter inter - delivery spread [24][25][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is evident, and the price is gradually falling. In the US, soybean export sales are expected to be within a certain range, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be supported, while rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [28][29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating lower, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. Globally, there will be a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, international sugar prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. The strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [31][34][35]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oscillating market continues. External factors have led to short - term price fluctuations, and different oils have different supply - demand situations. The strategy is to go long on dips or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [36][37][39]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are starting to correct, and the futures price is falling. The US corn futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, while domestic corn prices in the Northeast are falling, and those in the North China are relatively strong. The strategy is to go long on dips for the outer - market December corn, short on rallies for the January corn, wait for corrections for the May and July corn, and conduct spread - narrowing operations for the January corn - starch spread [40][41][43]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure persists, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall supply pressure remains, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle strategies for options [44][45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is weak, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and quality. The strategy is to short on rallies for the January peanuts, go long on dips for the May peanuts with a stop - loss at 7800, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [46][47][48]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49][50][52]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and fruit prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and the fundamentals are relatively strong, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to recent large fluctuations [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. External factors and supply - demand situations at home and abroad affect the price. The strategy is to expect range - bound oscillations for US cotton and short - term oscillations for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The industry is affected by policies, costs, and demand. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating downward trend for single - side trading, go long on the coil - to - rebar spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [62][63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are correcting from high levels, and the futures market is weakly operating. After short - term replenishment, the market sentiment has changed. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating short - term trend without chasing short positions, consider going long on dips near previous lows in the medium - term, continue to hold the coking coal 1/5 reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [64][65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish approach is recommended. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. The strategy is to expect a high - level bearish trend for single - side trading, enter a 1/5 inter - delivery high - level reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a cost - supported range. Different ferroalloys have different supply - demand and cost situations. The strategy is to expect bottom - oscillating trends for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69][70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: NVIDIA boosts market sentiment, but the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold and silver prices. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The strategy is to hold long positions cautiously near the support level of the 18th, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [72][74][76]. - **Copper**: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to go long on dips, pay attention to the 85000 yuan/ton support level, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [76][77][80]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized, and the price is weakly operating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and long - term contracts. The strategy is to expect a short - term weak trend until the warehouse receipts are circulated, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas economic data are unexpectedly absent, and Shanghai aluminum moves with the sector. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market, and go long on Shanghai aluminum and short on LME aluminum to narrow the spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [83][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy moves with the aluminum price. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, wait for the market sentiment to digest, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Zinc**: It shows a wide - range oscillation. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to continue to hold profitable long positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][88][90]. - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to close profitable short positions and stay on the sidelines, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [90][91][94]. - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The oversupply of deliverable products and the macro - environment affect the price. The strategy is to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [94][95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The industry is affected by factors such as investment plans and carbon taxes. The strategy is to short on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96][97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term partial profits can be realized, and new strategies can involve going long on dips near the support level. The price is affected by production capacity and market demand. [98]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels and may rebound in the short - term; treasury bond futures will have limited price fluctuations and slow roll - over progress [19][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal will have obvious bullish factors and fluctuate; sugar prices will be affected by import volume and sugar mill start - ups, with limited downward space; the oil and fat sector will be affected by US biodiesel policies and maintain volatile; corn and corn starch prices will fall with the callback of spot prices; pig prices will still face supply pressure; peanut prices will oscillate at the bottom; egg prices will be stable with a slight decline; apple prices will be stable; cotton and cotton yarn prices will be mainly volatile [27][33][36][40][42][44][50][52][56]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices will fluctuate within a range; coking coal and coke prices will be weak; iron ore prices will be bearish; ferroalloy prices will be supported by cost and fluctuate within a range [58][60][63][65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals' volatility may increase; copper prices should focus on lower support; alumina prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate; electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are strong; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices; zinc prices will have wide - range fluctuations; lead prices will oscillate within a range; nickel prices will weaken; stainless steel prices will be weak due to supply - demand imbalance; industrial silicon prices can be bought on dips; polysilicon prices will oscillate before the platform company is established; lithium carbonate prices may fall after rising [68][73][78][80][84][86][88][90][93][95][98][99]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the market fell, with major stock index futures contracts declining. The risk appetite decreased, but technology stocks showed signs of stopping the decline [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility and short - term rebound; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads on dips [19]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with limited price fluctuations. The market capital was slightly tightened, and the roll - over progress was slow [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, hold (TL - 3T) positions and consider long T contract current - quarter minus next - quarter spread; for options, no specific strategy is provided [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybean index slightly declined, and the index of related products slightly increased. Domestic supply has uncertainties, and the price has support [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect price support and oscillation; for arbitrage, no specific strategy is provided; for options, no specific strategy is provided [27]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: International sugar prices may bottom out and oscillate. Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to high - volume imports and sugar mill start - ups, but there is support at the current price [32][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can consider building long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell put options at low levels [33]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Market Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel policy, external market oil and fat prices rose, but the final plan is not yet determined. Palm oil may have limited rebound, and soybean oil follows the overall trend, while rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can use short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [37]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The external market of corn rebounded, and domestic corn prices may fall with the decline of port prices [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can short on dips for December corn in the external market, stay on the sidelines for January corn, and wait for dips for May and July corn; for arbitrage, shrink the spread between January corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [40]. Pig - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply pressure has improved, but the overall supply is still high, and pig prices still face pressure [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can arrange a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell wide - straddle strategies [42]. Peanut - **Market Performance**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and futures prices will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on May peanuts on dips; for arbitrage, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [45]. Egg - **Market Performance**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline [47][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [51]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is likely to be lower than last year. The fundamentals are strong, but the market is volatile [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should exit and wait and see; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [53]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: New cotton will be listed in large quantities, and the increase in production may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and cotton prices will be mainly volatile [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading expects US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton to be mainly volatile; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [56]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: The black - metal sector was weak at night, and steel prices were restricted by supply - demand structure. However, there is cost support, and hot - rolled coil performs better than rebar [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect range - bound fluctuations; for arbitrage, long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; for options, stay on the sidelines [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: After short - term replenishment, the market is cautious, and prices are weak. In the medium - term, there is demand for winter storage [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect weak short - term fluctuations and consider going long near previous lows; for arbitrage, hold the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal; for options, stay on the sidelines [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand is weak. Ore prices are expected to be bearish [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be bearish; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [64]. Ferroalloy - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of ferroalloy are both weak, and prices are supported by cost and will oscillate at the bottom [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect bottom - bound oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The ADP weekly employment data was weak, and precious metals rebounded slightly. With the upcoming release of key data, volatility may increase [68][70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines; aggressive investors can try to go long near yesterday's low [71]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, and copper prices are under pressure. However, there is support around 85,000 yuan/ton [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [74]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply of alumina is still in surplus, and prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate before substantial production cuts [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect short - term bottom - grinding oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have decreased, and aluminum prices have fallen, but the fundamentals are still strong [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, focus on the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China; for options, stay on the sidelines [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices. The cost provides support, but market trading activity has declined [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The domestic zinc mine supply is tight, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely due to macro factors [85][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold profitable long positions; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [86]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Domestic lead inventories are increasing, and lead prices are under pressure. They will be affected by overseas macro factors [87][88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold remaining short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [88]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel is in a state of oversupply of deliverable products. In the off - season, inventories increase, and prices are weak. However, there may be production cuts [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: Stainless steel demand is in the off - season, costs are falling, and inventories are increasing. Prices will follow nickel prices and continue to decline [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [94]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened, but downstream prices have risen, and costs are firm. It can be bought on dips [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should buy on dips; for arbitrage, conduct the Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage; for options, no specific strategy is provided [95]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased in November, and the market will oscillate before the platform company is established [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: There are increasing differences at high levels, and prices may fall after rising [99]. - **No specific trading strategy is provided in the text**.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]