Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current stainless - steel market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors in the short term. It is recommended to focus on low - level trading opportunities during the market fluctuations. A strategy of buying on dips with a light position is advisable, while keeping an eye on future stainless - steel consumption and PMI inflation data [27]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The "anti - involution" theme in the market has little impact on stainless steel. Instead, the market has seen wide - range fluctuations due to the riots in Indonesia. With little change in the fundamentals, the cost - effectiveness of single - sided trading strategies for stainless steel is low. The current futures - spot price spread is near zero, and the near - month arbitrage space is very limited. The market does not reflect the optimistic expectations for the peak season, and there is still a lack of upward momentum for the market [2][6]. - From the actual consumption side, the demand for stainless steel has not improved significantly, and the restocking market has not started as expected [3][23]. Supply and Demand - On the spot side, stainless steel faces a structural shortage. Since the second quarter, the hot - rolled production has been steadily declining slightly, leading to a supply shortage. Recently, due to the "September 3rd Parade", some steel mills have reduced or suspended production, further exacerbating the supply - demand mismatch for hot - rolled products. In contrast, the production of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel has reached new highs, with sufficient market supply, and the planned production for September is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The expired warehouse receipts of stainless steel in September were 4,800 tons, and in October, they increased to 10,000 tons, which exerts some pressure on the futures market. However, the current futures price is close to the spot price, attracting some traders to increase their purchasing willingness. The delivery volume in August reached 39,000 tons, and it is expected to rise further from September to October [13]. Inventory - The overall inventory data is showing a downward trend. The current social inventory of crude steel is maintained at a reasonable level of around 1 million tons. The market's willingness to pick up goods has marginally improved, and traders are actively selling goods, which has accelerated the inventory clearance. For cold - rolled products, the high monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel brings some inventory accumulation pressure, but the extent of inventory accumulation is generally controllable [18]. Cost - The prices of key raw materials such as ferronickel and ferrochrome have stabilized and rebounded. The first - round tender price for high - nickel ferronickel in September released by Tsingshan Group is 955 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom, N>11%), which further strengthens the cost support [23]. - The chromite market continues to strengthen. The recent strike at Turkish ports has severely disrupted chromite logistics, especially affecting the supply to the European market. In addition, the power supply problem in South Africa has not been resolved, and the operating rates of major local chromite producers have significantly declined, further intensifying the global chromite supply shortage [23]. Outlook - Although the "anti - involution" atmosphere in the commodity market has subsided, stainless steel, as a non - hot - spot variety, shows certain trading value at the current time. In the medium to long term, stainless steel prices are affected by both the domestic real - estate cycle and the commodity inflation cycle. The industry is currently at a low - value level, and the valuation is in the process of recovering from oversold to neutral, which is expected to resonate with the phased recovery of the real - estate industry [27].