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浙商证券浙商早知道-20260309
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-03-09 10:49
Market Overview - On March 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.67%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.97%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.69%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.55%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.64%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.35% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on March 9 were coal (+2.92%), comprehensive (+2.77%), computer (+1.61%), electric equipment (+1.12%), and public utilities (+0.92%). The worst-performing sectors were communication (-2.38%), transportation (-2.34%), beauty care (-2.17%), defense and military (-2.01%), and electronics (-1.89%) [4][5] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on March 9 was 26,706 billion, with a net inflow of 37.213 billion HKD from southbound funds [4][5] Key Recommendations Huabei Mining (600985) - Global coking coal supply is weak while demand is strong, leading to an expected price increase. Domestic coking coal production is declining or has limited growth [6] - Coking coal mines are expected to resume production, with the Xinhui Mine projected to have a capacity of 3 million tons/year and the Taohutu Mine expected to be operational in 2026 with a capacity of 8 million tons/year, raising total capacity to 42.25 million tons/year [6] - The coking industry is facing losses, and the implementation of ultra-low emission policies is expected to eliminate backward production capacity, leading to a revaluation of coking coal business [6] - International oil prices have returned to high levels, significantly improving chemical profits [6] - Revenue forecasts for Huabei Mining are 53.382 billion, 58.096 billion, and 62.560 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1.967 billion, 3.305 billion, and 3.738 billion CNY, respectively [6] Innovation Industry (02788) - The company benefits from the rising aluminum price due to the upturn in the electrolytic aluminum industry and the decline in bauxite prices, which reduces costs [8] - The planned electrolytic aluminum capacity in Saudi Arabia is expected to boost the company's production, with a significant increase anticipated by 2027 [8] - The company’s cash costs are projected to be in the top 50% of the global cost curve, allowing for excess profits of 3,782 CNY/ton compared to lower-end competitors [9] - Revenue forecasts for the company are 3.3 billion, 5.1 billion, and 6.4 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with EPS of 1.58, 2.43, and 3.06 CNY [9] Hengli Hydraulic (601100) - The company is expected to see a significant increase in its linear actuator business, with breakthroughs in foreign client acquisition contributing to growth [11] - Revenue forecasts for Hengli Hydraulic are 10.832 billion, 13.099 billion, and 16.333 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 2.879 billion, 3.612 billion, and 4.516 billion CNY, respectively [11]