碳"总量控制"的拐点：高排放行业迎来倒计时 8月25日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅公布的《关于推进绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意 见》（以下称"《意见》"），在全国碳市场的发展历程中写下了醒目的一笔：到2027年，将对碳排放总 量相对稳定的行业实施总量控制；到2030年，基本建成以配额总量控制为基础、免费和有偿分配相结合 的全国碳排放权交易市场。这意味着全国碳市场将从此前以"强度约束"为主的管控模式，迈入以"总量 硬约束"为核心的阶段。这一转变不仅仅是政策表述上的调整，也预示着我国碳市场进入了更深层次的 发展阶段。 过去几年中，全国碳市场经历了从电力行业起步，逐步扩围到钢铁、水泥、电解铝等高耗能产业的路 线。截至2025年7月底，市场累计成交量已达6.8亿吨，成交额超过467亿元，碳价一度突破100元/吨并 稳定在72元/吨左右，已开始逐渐在资源配置中发挥导向作用。 这是唐山市海港经济开发区一家钢铁企业刚轧制出炉的槽型钢。新华社记者 杨世尧 摄 然而，跟交易规模的增长相比，即将到来的"总量约束"可能更具分水岭意义：此项标准或将直接决定哪 些企业能在新一轮绿色转型中脱颖而出，哪些则可能被迫退出舞台。 留给 ...

神火股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000933） 公司点评 煤炭板块触底，电解铝成本优化 | [Table_Rank] | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-09-02 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） 19.28 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 22.05/13.04 总股本（百万股） 2,249 流通股本（百万股） 2,248 流通股比例（%） 99.92 总市值（亿元） 434 流通市值（亿元） 433 ⚫ 煤炭：价跌拖累因素，但已显现触底迹象 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -21% -3% 15% 33% 51% 9/24 12/24 3/25 6/25 神火股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：许勇其 执业证书号：S0010522080002 邮箱：xuyq@hazq.com 分析师：黄玺 执业证书号：S0010524060001 邮箱：huangxi@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 神火股份发布 2025 年半年报 公司 ...

硅基产业升级，清洁能源出口重塑全球贸易 能源革命重塑全球格局：中国以低成本清洁电力驱动高端制造东迁 能源形态的根本性转变，在中国新疆准东经济技术开发区得到了生动体现。这里，广袤的戈壁滩上，丰 富的太阳能资源通过特高压输电系统，源源不断地输送至冶炼中心，将硅石原料高效提纯为太阳能级多 晶硅。这些闪烁着银灰色光泽的高纯度金属锭，随后被运往宁夏等地的光伏组件制造基地，转化为深蓝 色的太阳能电池板。 2024年度，中国出口的光伏产品总计235.9吉瓦，通过海运销往东南亚、中东及欧洲等全球市场。根据 国际可再生能源机构的评估，这些光伏组件所产生的年发电量，约相当于7.3亿桶石油所能提供的电 当欧洲大陆因飙升的电价而步履蹒跚，其工业巨头们正经历着一场由能源成本引发的"地震"。德国化工 巨头巴斯夫集团，这家百年老店，在2023年毅然关闭了其位于路德维希港年产30万吨合成氨装置，却同 时宣布了高达100亿欧元的投资计划，瞄准中国广东湛江的一体化基地。巴斯夫首席技术官布鲁格迈尔 直言不讳："电价差异让继续保留欧洲产能失去经济意义。"此言不虚，2024年第一季度，德国工业电价 已突破0.35欧元/度（约合人民币2.7元），而中国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's coal performance remains stable, benefiting from a high proportion of long-term contracts and a relatively independent regional supply-demand structure [3] - The company's thermal power business experienced slight declines in both volume and price, while wind and solar power generation saw significant increases [3] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum business has improved, with substantial growth potential in the future [3] - The steady progress of asset injections opens up long-term growth opportunities for the company [4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 14.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.36% [1] - The company's coal production in the first half of 2025 was 22.6308 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.19%, while sales volume was 21.7745 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98% [3] - The average selling price of coal was 206 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.62%, while the unit cost of coal increased by 9.53% to 94 yuan per ton [3] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 5.644 billion, 6.386 billion, and 7.308 billion yuan, respectively [6] Business Segments - The coal segment generated revenue of 4.487 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.59% [3] - The company's thermal power generation decreased by 2.64% to 241,595.25 million kWh in the first half of 2025, while renewable energy generation increased by 37.23% to 421,926.82 million kWh [3] - The electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.98% to 452,300 tons in the first half of 2025, with a selling price of 17,952 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.38% [3] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a consolidation platform for coal, electricity, and aluminum businesses in the Inner Mongolia region, with significant growth potential through external mergers and acquisitions [4] - The ongoing asset injection, if successfully completed, is expected to significantly enhance the company's coal and electrolytic aluminum production capacity [4]

国盛证券研报指出，电投能源上半年归母净利润27.87亿元，同比减少5.36%；2025Q2归母净利润12.28 亿元，同比增长22.76%。公司核定产能4,800万吨/年，经过多年耕耘，已成为东北地区褐煤销售龙头企 业，公司2025年煤炭长协价与2024持平，有助于提升公司2025年煤炭业务利润韧性；2025年公司煤炭 产/销量计划为4800/4824万吨。电解铝业务赋能弹性，成长可期。2025年公司电解铝产/销量计划为 90/90万吨。随着突泉县44.5万风电项目于2024年年底全容量投产，通辽市防沙治沙和风电光伏一体化 110万千瓦项目建设的有序推进，"十四五"期间公司新能源装机规模将大幅提升。维持"买入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，德邦证券发布研报称，维持中国宏桥(01378)"买入"评级，预计公司2025-2027年净 利润分别为235、255、261亿元。8月15日，中国宏桥发布公告，2025年上半年公司实现总营业收入 810.39亿元，同比增长8.48%；税前利润为177.64亿元，同比增长28.07%；实现净利润123.61亿元，同比 增长35.02%。公司主营产品的量价齐升推动公司业绩持续上行。 德邦证券主要观点如下： 主营业务量价齐升，推动公司业绩上行 推出股份回购，增强市场信心 公司近日披露新一轮股份回购计划，预计回购总额为2.34亿港元，回购股份相当于回购公告披露日已发 行股份的0.11%。伴随当下公司主营业务的量价齐升，公司适时推出股份回购，有望进一步强化公司形 象，提升投资者信心。 投资建议 公司产业链配套完善，在电解铝行业中可通过上下游同时取得收益，伴随公司后续绿电铝占比持续提 升，其盈利能力及社会贡献均有望持续扩大。预计公司2025-2027年净利润分别为235、255、261亿元。 风险提示 云南电解铝限电限产情况加剧、国内经济复苏低于预期、电解铝产业政策变动。 氧化铝方面，公司上半年实现氧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the company"), is focused on enhancing its operational quality and expanding its energy matrix while maintaining a commitment to investor returns through stable dividend policies [6][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company reported total assets of 54.979 billion yuan, an increase of 6.48% year-on-year, and net assets attributable to shareholders of 35.807 billion yuan, up 3.48% year-on-year [6]. - The company achieved operating revenue of 14.463 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.786 billion yuan, with earnings per share of 1.24 yuan [6][7]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company is accelerating its green transition with approximately 5 million kilowatts of new energy installed capacity, including key projects such as 445,000 kilowatts of wind power in Tucheng and 110,000 kilowatts of wind-storage in Chifeng [7]. - The company produced 22.6308 million tons of raw coal and sold 21.7745 million tons during the first half of 2025, alongside generating 241,595.25 million kilowatt-hours of thermal power [7]. Group 3: Governance and Compliance - The company has implemented a governance framework to enhance information disclosure quality, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the company disclosed 91 pieces of information through designated media, maintaining transparency and accuracy in its reporting [8]. Group 4: Investor Returns - The company has a consistent profit distribution policy, having distributed cash dividends totaling approximately 1.905 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, with a plan to continue focusing on investor returns [9].

神火股份 20250827 摘要 神火股份电解铝业务受益于新疆低火电成本和云南水电资源，新疆 80 万吨产能配套自供电力，云南 90 万吨产能为绿色铝，具出口竞争力。 2025 年上半年新疆吨净利近 3,000 元，云南约 2000 元，盈利能力处 于历史高位。 公司煤炭业务以河南无烟煤为主，产能约 720 万吨，受益于焦煤价格反 弹，2025 年上半年保持盈利。公司积极拓展煤电一体化项目，若煤炭 市场维持震荡向上周期，盈利贡献可观。 铝箔业务面临产能过剩挑战，盈利能力一般，公司对云南铝箔项目二期 持谨慎态度。新疆风电项目建成后，清洁能源电力占比提升，但可能减 少火电机组发电量。 氧化铝依赖外购，价格波动对利润影响大。2024 年四季度因氧化铝高 价亏损，2025 年价格回落释放盈利，预计全年均价回落将继续提升利 润。 电解铝行业正经历从周期股向红利股转变，上游原材料和制造端产能天 花板限制，公司盈利及铝价预期稳定，提高分红比例成为趋势。 Q&A 神火股份的基本情况及其主要业务是什么？ 神火股份是一家以煤炭和电解铝为双轮驱动的公司。公司最早是一家纯煤炭公 司，后来在 2010 年前后开始转型，并在 2015 ...

Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" starting from October 1, 2024, marks the beginning of supply-side reforms in the rare earth sector, with increasingly stringent regulations observed [5] - Continuous price increases for light rare earth elements since July this year, along with the re-evaluation of rare earths as strategic key mineral resources, indicate ongoing upward momentum in the rare earth sector [5] Group 2: China Hongqiao (1378.HK) - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao reported a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, supported by declining costs and rising product prices and volumes [5] - The downward trend of the US dollar and sustained industry demand contribute to the resilience of electrolytic aluminum prices [5] - The company's significant share buybacks reflect long-term confidence, while high dividends continue to enhance shareholder returns [5] Group 3: Honglu Steel Structure (002541.SZ) - In the first half of 2025, Honglu Steel Structure achieved revenues of 1.06 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year increase, but experienced a 33% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 570 million yuan, a 3% year-on-year decrease, with net profit also down by 33% [5] Group 4: Hangcha Group (603298.SH) - Hangcha Group reported a revenue of 9.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an 8.7% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, up 11.4% [7] - The gross margin increased by 0.6 percentage points to 22.0%, while the net margin rose by 0.1 percentage points to 12.6% [7] Group 5: Wuxi Zhenhua (605319.SH) - In the first half of 2025, Wuxi Zhenhua's total revenue increased by 15.2% to 1.29 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 27.2% to 200 million yuan [8] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 9.5% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 31.9% [8] Group 6: Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) - Semir Apparel's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.3% year-on-year growth, while net profit decreased by 41.2% to 330 million yuan [8] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 124% for the first half of the year [8] Group 7: YK Life (300143.SZ) - YK Life reported a revenue of 843 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 2.4% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 62 million yuan, up 12.82% [8] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 19.22% to 61 million yuan, meeting expectations [8]

该行在中期策略报告《优质稀缺资产，红利价值彰显》和专题报告《电解铝股息率处于全市场什么水 平?》提出，电解铝板块迈入高分红的大时代。中国宏桥之所以能成为最先高分红标的：(1)作为优质全 球民营铝企，公司原料、能源、管理成本均处于领先水平，在铝行业2020年以来复苏浪潮下，公司经营 活动现金流净额从2020年177.79亿元增至2024年339.83亿元;(2)公司全球布局"铝土矿-氧化铝-电解铝-铝 加工"全流程铝产业链，有效对冲不同品种价格波动影响，比如2024年氧化铝和铝土矿价格大涨，公司 作为一体化龙头，经营业绩相对稳健。(3)资本开支中枢下移，或源于2017年去产能和云南搬迁电价和 枯水季等扰动，公司深知电解铝建设关键要素能耗的稳定性和持续性，并未像同行出海建电解铝，仅维 持少量云南搬迁和新能源项目以及正常性开支，因此资本开支/经营现金流净额仅约38%，且未来仍存 下行空间。 为何公司表现一鸣惊人? 从2020年3月低点以来，中国宏桥累计涨幅高达1316.85%(截至2025年8月22日)，从金属板块中涅槃重 生，脱颖而出。公司2025年初至今涨幅高达124.49%(截至2025年8月22日)，在有色 ...