研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 2 日 0 / 50 | | | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 价格整体高位 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖业下调全球糖产 | 国际糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：地缘冲突升级，油脂波动或加大 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面继续冲高 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：苹果需求有所好转 | 价格较为坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：地缘冲突爆发，钢价震荡跟涨 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，可尝试逢低做多 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：陕西差别电价落地，震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：地缘冲突爆发，避险主导金银 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地缘冲突升级 避险需求推升贵金属价格 18 | | 铜：短期高位盘整，回调后 ...

文字早评 2026/02/26 星期四 2、津巴布韦宣布即日起暂停锂精矿及原矿出口，旨在推进矿产资源本地化加工； 3、SK 海力士，计划到 2030 年前在韩国龙仁市投资约 150.7 亿美元，新建芯片生产线； 4、海光公布业绩，2025 年营收同比+56.91%，净利润+31.66%，国产高端芯片市场需求持续攀升，预计 2026 年 Q1 营收同比增长 62.91%-75.82%，净利润同比增长 22.56%-42.32%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.35%/1.26%/3.81%/4.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/1.01%/4. 83%/4.90%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：3.50%/4.16%/9.70%/8.43%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.53%/-0.94%/0.23%/2.32%。 【策略观点】 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、特朗普宣布将通过其他法律途径持续加征关税，并明确提出以关税收入取代个人所得税，同时宣称 石油日产量增加 60 万桶、核心通胀降至五年最低； 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 112.700 ，环比 ...

商品资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？20260223 摘要 地缘政治扰动和中国企业出海投资意愿减弱导致全球有色矿产资源供给 刚性，叠加降息周期和全球经济复苏，共同推动有色金属价格上涨。全 球性品种因受益于全球供需关系改善，更具投资价值，尤其是在制造业 和工业企稳复苏的背景下。 电力板块因中国电价竞争力强、全产业链成本较低、电力公司成本控制 和盈利能力优异而值得重点推荐。电解铝行业虽依赖进口矿石，但国内 产能限制约束了供应，出口铝材占比高，通过锁定冶炼环节利润，实现 了上下游双重获利。 化工行业预计 2025 年下半年触底反弹，供需变化将带来价格弹性。中 国化工行业已取得较强低价权，未来将向高端化升级。制冷剂行业受环 保政策配额制影响，企业集中度提高，产品提价增加盈利，预计三美股 份业绩将显著增长。 铬盐市场因生产过程受限，下游应用于民用、军用航空等战略领域，需 求有望增长。硫磺市场因油气回收减少导致供应受限，而电池级硫酸镍 生产增加需求，价格持续上涨，且趋势具有长期性。 Q&A 资源品市场在 2025 年的行情表现如何？有哪些特征和变化？ 2025 年资源品市场表现强劲，尤其是有色金属板块，包括金、银、铜、 ...

国信证券此前指，公司将在沙特建设50万吨电解铝。公司凭借下游深加工业务优势，成功在沙特落地铝 产业链项目，一期50万吨电解铝预计2027年左右投产。沙特电费低廉，高耗能行业电费仅3.2美分/度， 相当于国内新疆燃煤自备电成本，电解铝项目成本优势显著，给公司带来长期成长空间，是电解铝行业 稀缺成长标的。 消息面上，恒生指数公司此前宣布截至2025年12月31日之恒生指数系列季度检讨结果，其中创新实业获 纳入恒生综合指数。变动将于3月9日起生效，届时沪深交易所会相应调整港股通可投资标的范围。据多 家券商预测，创新实业可能符合纳入港股通条件。 创新实业(02788)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.03%，报24.2港元，成交额3765.89万港元。 ...

当金银铜的价格在狂欢中屡创新高，资金已经开始寻找下一个洼地。 2月22日，长江证券发布了一份长达42页的深度策略报告，抛出了一个极其直白的问题：资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？ 以往，大宗商品价格一涨，企业就会加码建厂扩产，最后产能过剩、价格崩盘。 但现在，时代变了。 长江证券指出，在当下的宏观环境中，"逆全球化地缘主义掣肘出海+双碳管控，催生第二类稀缺资源"。 第二，全球性。需求遍布全球，受益于全球降息和补库周期。 海外降息范式下，金融流动性逐步传导至实体经济修复，全球制造业需求企稳复苏，大宗轮动周期一般为"有色-化工原油"，后续品种空间 值得期待。 第三，最关键的一点，价格在低位，利润高弹性。 换句话说，哪怕现在利润再高，你想扩产也扩不了。 哪些行业正在变成这种"第二类稀缺资源"？报告点名了四个领域：电解铝、化工石化、航空、油运。 它们的共同特征非常明显： 第一，战略性。要么是中国拥有绝对定价权，要么是美国的高精尖垄断产业。 一类是中国具备"全产业链和成本优势"的制造业，并且"成功攫取上游海外原料和下游出口海外两端利润"，形成"供给定价权"的战略制造 （电解铝、化工&石化、油运等）；另一类是美国部分高精 ...

Group 1 - Zhongfu Industrial experienced a decline of 5.04% on February 13, with a stock price of 8.10 yuan per share, a trading volume of 453 million yuan, a turnover rate of 1.36%, and a total market capitalization of 32.464 billion yuan [1] - The company, founded on January 28, 1997, and listed on June 26, 2002, is based in Gongyi City, Henan Province, and its main business includes coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [1] - The revenue composition of Zhongfu Industrial is as follows: non-ferrous metals 94.76%, electricity 9.96%, coal 2.71%, and other businesses 0.47% [1] Group 2 - Dongzheng Asset Management has a fund that heavily invests in Zhongfu Industrial, specifically the Oriental Red Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund (000619), which held 15.4413 million shares, accounting for 4.05% of the fund's net value, making it the fifth-largest holding [2] - The Oriental Red Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund was established on June 6, 2014, with a latest scale of 2.991 billion yuan, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 9.98%, ranking 1971 out of 8890 in its category [2] - The fund has a one-year return of 54.66%, ranking 1222 out of 8132, and a cumulative return since inception of 441.3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that by 2026, companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are expected to have strong dividend potential, supported by favorable conditions in market value management, high dividend strategies, and declining capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries [1] Group 1: Dividend Potential of Companies - Companies recommended for strong dividend potential include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), Baosteel (600019.SH), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), with China Aluminum (601600.SH) suggested for further observation [1] - China Shenhua's cash dividend ratio increased significantly from an average of 39% (2008-2016) to 151% in 2017, with an average of 74% from 2018 to 2024, driven by low debt ratios, reduced capital expenditures, and high undistributed profits [1] Group 2: High Dividend Yield Companies - As of February 6, 2026, there are only eight companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors with dividend yields above 3%, including Youfa Group (6.90%), Baosteel (4.18%), and Jiuli Special Materials (3.23%) [2] Group 3: Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - Three favorable factors for potential dividend increases in the steel and aluminum sectors include: 1. Market value management being included in assessments, encouraging companies to enhance cash dividends [3] 2. Large-scale entry of insurance capital, making high dividend strategies a core asset allocation choice [3] 3. Gradual decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, allowing for increased cash dividends [3] - A scoring system based on undistributed profits, cash reserves, and debt ratios identifies 14 companies with strong dividend potential, with Hualing Steel and Baosteel scoring highest in the steel sector [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 186.75 billion, 252.99 billion, and 271.76 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 45.58 HKD based on a 16x PE for 2026 [1] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 170.0 billion and 200.0 billion yuan, with adjustments made to the 2024 net profit figure to 172.28 billion yuan due to a significant asset restructuring involving the acquisition of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. [2] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, leading to a significant expansion in enterprise profits, with the average production cost at 15,747.31 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 149.18 yuan/ton, and an industry average profit of 8,295.19 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2,266.98 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a new cycle, with historical price highs driven by a weakening dollar and geopolitical factors, leading to fluctuations in aluminum prices [4] - The overall electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China is expected to grow from 43.76 million tons to 45.15 million tons from 2021 to 2025, with a tightening of new capacity control due to the 45 million ton capacity "ceiling" and "dual carbon" goals [5]

Macro Commentary - The report indicates a slowdown in China's economic growth in Q1, but improvements in deflation are noted, with policymakers signaling a focus on stabilizing real estate, promoting consumption, and countering "involution" [2] - The US economy is expected to rebound, with rental inflation declining, offsetting a rise in commodity inflation, leading to a stable dollar liquidity environment [2] - The report anticipates only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June this year, with a potential for a spring rebound in the stock market [2] Internet Sector - In January, high beta stocks benefitting from event-driven catalysts significantly outperformed the industry, aided by improved market risk appetite and liquidity [2] - Major Chinese internet companies are increasing market spending on AI applications targeting end-users, with 2026 identified as a critical year for capturing user engagement in the AI era [2] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,560, down 1.21% for the day but up 3.63% year-to-date, while the US markets showed a rebound with the Dow Jones up 2.47% [2] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the Hang Seng Financial Index down 1.89% and the Hang Seng Property Index up 17.49% year-to-date [3] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with certain profit growth and those benefiting from AI [5] - Specific stocks to watch include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-driven growth potential, and NetEase and Trip.com for their stable earnings visibility [5] Software and IT Services - The report expresses optimism for the software sector, expecting revenue growth to support valuations, while cautioning about the competitive pressures from AI model vendors [6] - Recommended stocks include Palo Alto Networks in the US and Kingdee in China, which are expected to benefit from AI-related revenue growth [6] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively, driven by AI demand, with structural shortages in memory products like HBM and server DRAM [7] - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang and Northern Huachuang, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing power [7] Technology Sector - The report anticipates a continued high demand for AI computing infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, with specific recommendations for companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics [8] Consumer Sector - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has risen 8% year-to-date, driven by high elasticity in discretionary consumption sectors [9] - The report highlights the potential for increased consumer spending during the Spring Festival, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] Automotive Sector - January saw a slowdown in automotive sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, but a recovery is expected post-Spring Festival [11] - Recommended stocks include Geely for its expanding new energy vehicle matrix and Xpeng for its potential to turn profitable [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of innovative drugs going global, with a focus on clinical progress and data validation for drugs already in international markets [12] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of drug commercialization [12] Capital Goods Sector - The report notes a positive outlook for the capital goods sector, particularly in construction machinery, driven by rising metal prices and increased mining capital expenditures [21] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for construction equipment [21] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector is optimistic due to favorable policies, with the Hang Seng Property Index rising 15% year-to-date [19] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao and Greentown China, which have shown significant price increases [19]

新华社兰州2月7日电（记者程楠）立春节气之后，传统佳节春节将至，但在甘肃中瑞铝业有限公司的各条生产线上，机器开足马力运转，工人 紧张有序生产。铝水在生产线上转化成铝锭，降温后，再由机器人码垛，随后就出厂发运。 2025年，甘肃中瑞铝业有限公司花费100多万元，购买了135万张绿证。"再加上购买的水电、风光电指标，达到了甘肃电解铝行业绿色用能要 求比例。"刘宏旺说，未来企业将持续增购绿电和绿证，进一步加快公司向可持续发展转型。 除帮助企业购买绿证外，在2023年，国网白银供电公司还帮助这家企业将基本电费计收方式按需量计费变更为按变压器容量计费，每月可帮企 业降低用电成本140多万元。 "通过上门宣讲绿电绿证政策和优化电价策略，我们切实采取措施帮助企业节能降耗。"国网白银供电公司市场营销部客户经理斯玥说，2025 年，该公司已累计为当地14家企业提供绿电、绿证交易服务，交易绿电1298万千瓦时、绿证超130万张。 如今，白银只是甘肃就地消纳绿电能力持续提高的一个缩影。敦煌市在2025年实现全年全域100%绿电供应，庆阳市、金昌市等多地的产业园 区率先签订绿电长期采购协议，"零碳园区""零碳机关""零碳校园"等形成 ...