有色：短暂休息，把握回调机会 20251019 摘要 美国经济软着陆预期下，首次降息后海外需求企稳，叠加供给侧扰动， 有色金属价格主升浪尚未启动，目前处于高位震荡，等待需求复苏和流 动性宽松共振。 2026 年各有色子板块业绩预期普遍乐观，上升幅度约 20%甚至更高， 建议把握回调机会布局，预计 2026 年一季度末前后将迎来主升浪，受 益于降息、美国结束缩表及海外重建需求。 中美博弈常态化，对基本金属情绪影响减弱，基本面仍是关键。供给侧 约束强于需求影响，预计 2026 年多数金属仍供不应求。 黄金短期交易过热，估值透支，地缘政治事件降温后或有调整，但长期 来看，经济复苏、流动性宽松及通胀抬头将推动明年上半年再次上涨。 铜价上涨抑制需求，短期承压，但矿山和冶炼厂或主动减产，长期仍具 潜力。预计 2025 年四季度至 2026 年全年铜市场将进入供不应求状态， 主流公司估值已回落至合理区间。 电解铝板块估值严重滞涨，红利属性强劲，分红预期高，利润韧性强， 且价格上涨弹性不输于铜，具备进可攻、退可守的特点，是首选投资标 的。 小金属中，钴库存减少，价格仍有上涨空间；锂短期承压但供需格局接 近底部，可战略性布局； ...

累库趋势持续， 期价震荡偏弱 氧化铝周报 2025/10/18 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 06 库存 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至10月17日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内下跌1.82%至2809元/吨，持仓增加2.3万手至45.8万手。本周中美谈判不确定性驱动整体商品偏弱运行，叠加氧化铝高开工高 库存的格局持续，期价震荡下行。基差方面，山东现货价格报2815元/吨，升水11合约46元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-29元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周各地区氧化铝现货价格维持下行趋势，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别下跌35元/吨、25元/吨、40元/吨、50元/吨、40元/吨、40元/吨。 累库趋势持续，现货价格持续承压。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库6.3万吨至463.9万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存、氧化铝 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Weiqiao Group has successfully connected to the State Grid, ending its history of operating in isolation and exploring a new model of self-built power plants combined with public green electricity consumption, termed the "Weiqiao Model" [1][5]. Group 1 - The meeting between the State Grid Shandong Electric Power Chairman Lin Yifan and Weiqiao Group Chairman Zhang Bo marks a significant milestone in their cooperation, aiming to deepen collaboration and create a win-win development scenario [1][3]. - Lin Yifan emphasized the importance of this connection in promoting energy transition and reducing coal consumption while enhancing the consumption of green electricity in Shandong province [3][5]. - The completion of the connection project involved overcoming significant challenges and was achieved ahead of schedule, with three units of 660,000 kilowatts officially connected to the grid by July 9, and a total load of 1 million kilowatts connected by August 4 [5][3]. Group 2 - Zhang Bo expressed gratitude for the support from State Grid Shandong Electric Power, highlighting the transformative significance of accessing more green electricity for Weiqiao Group's development [5][3]. - The collaboration aims to create a model for high-level green electricity consumption and enhance the reliability of the power grid, showcasing a cooperative example for high-quality development [3][5]. - The initiative is seen as a response to changing domestic and international economic conditions, with Weiqiao Group committed to leveraging its strengths in partnership with the State Grid [5][3].

中国电解铝巨头、山东最大民营企业 山东魏桥创业集团 有限公司近日 接入国家电网 ， 结束了魏桥孤网运行历史，同时探索出了 自备电厂+公网绿电消纳新模式 上形成了可复 制、可推广的"魏桥方案"。 国网滨州供电公司工作人员加紧建设魏桥集团部分负荷、机组接网工程 张波感谢国网山东电力的大力支持，在最短时间内完成魏桥集团接网重大任 务，让魏桥 集团用上了更多的绿色电力 ，对于魏桥集团转型发展具有划时代意义。他表示，这次来 国网山东电力拜访既是破冰之旅，也是合作之旅，完全同意林一凡董事长提出的深化合作 任务。面对国内外经济形势的发展变化，魏桥集团将积极顺应时代形势和发展趋势，与国 家电网互通有无、优势互补，掀开魏桥与电网深化合作新局面。 胡薄表示，在省委省政府关心指导下，省发改委、省能源局、滨州市委市政府、国网山东 电力和魏桥集团多方合力，推动魏桥集团部分负荷、机组接入公网，开创了促进全省绿电 消纳的新模式。 今年春节后，公司认真落实省委省政府决策部署，与滨州市、魏桥集团紧密协同，全力克 服"大规模、紧时序、高难度"三重挑战，7月1日超常规攻坚完成魏桥集团部分负荷、机 组接网工程，7月9日实现3台66万千瓦机组正式并网 ...

Core Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a high prosperity cycle, driven by supply-side structural reforms and strong demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and data centers [1][4] - The integration of futures and spot markets is seen as a crucial strategy for enhancing the resilience and safety of the aluminum supply chain [1][5] Industry Overview - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with high utilization rates and low supply elasticity expected in the future [1] - Global electrolytic aluminum supply is only able to maintain rigid growth due to long-term power supply restrictions overseas [1] - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is projected to grow at an annual rate of around 2%, supported by traditional consumption and emerging industries [1] Company Strategies - Companies are encouraged to adopt structural adjustments for product differentiation and quality enhancement to cope with order shortages [2] - Risk management is emphasized as a survival skill across all industries, with companies advised to negotiate long-term agreements to mitigate price volatility [2][5] - The shift from a passive reliance on spot markets to an active management model using futures for risk hedging is highlighted as essential for modern traders [2][3] Trading and Risk Management - The concept of basis trading is presented as a sustainable profit strategy for traders, focusing on local supply-demand dynamics rather than absolute price predictions [3] - A complete futures market system has been established, providing a comprehensive risk hedging framework for the aluminum industry [3] Regional Insights - Henan province is a key player in China's non-ferrous metal production, with significant contributions from advanced aluminum-based materials [4] - The participation of local enterprises in futures trading has seen a growth rate of 23% over the past three years, demonstrating the value of futures in risk management [4] Future Directions - Companies are advised to build a three-tiered risk management system, focusing on traditional futures integration, expanding options usage, and collaborating with futures companies for data sharing [5] - The forum concluded with a sense of optimism about the deepening integration of the aluminum industry with the futures market, positioning it as a powerful engine for navigating uncertainties [5]

Summary of the Conference Call on the 15th Five-Year Plan Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in China, focusing on strategic directions in technology innovation, domestic demand, and emerging industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Continuation of Strategic Directions**: The 15th Five-Year Plan will extend and deepen the strategic directions of the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in technology innovation and new productive forces, aiming for a target of at least 20% of GDP from strategic emerging industries [1][11]. 2. **Focus on Domestic Demand**: Policies will emphasize consumption upgrades and investment structure optimization, aiming to release consumption potential through improved supply quality and international standards [1][4]. 3. **Support for Emerging Industries**: The plan will promote cluster development in new-generation information technology, high-end equipment, and biotechnology, with special funding and financing channels to support specialized and innovative enterprises [1][12]. 4. **Capacity Governance**: The plan will address overcapacity issues in industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics by enforcing strict environmental and energy consumption standards [1][13]. 5. **Public Service and Income Distribution Reform**: The plan aims to equalize basic public services and reform income distribution to reduce preventive savings in education, healthcare, and elderly care, thereby releasing more consumption capacity [1][16]. 6. **Investment Focus**: Short-term policies may lead to sector rotation effects, with funds potentially shifting from infrastructure to tourism and hospitality sectors, while long-term investments will focus on digital economy, high-end manufacturing, new energy, and the silver economy [3][17]. 7. **Challenges in Consumption**: Despite significant progress in cultivating new consumption drivers, consumption contribution to economic growth has weakened, dropping from 80% to 52% by Q2 2025 [3][9]. 8. **Investment Targets**: Most investment indicators are on track, but some energy security and social welfare targets have not met expectations, such as the nuclear power generation capacity completion rate of 68.8% [3][10]. 9. **Technological Innovation and R&D**: The plan will increase the proportion of basic research in R&D funding and enhance support for national laboratories and high-level universities [1][11]. 10. **Quality Supply and Consumption Upgrade**: The plan aims to improve supply quality to meet consumption upgrade demands, establishing a quality grading certification system [1][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Five-Year Plans**: The evolution of China's Five-Year Plans from 1953 to the present reflects a shift from rapid economic growth to a focus on quality and efficiency [5][6]. 2. **Impact on Capital Markets**: Historical data suggests that while immediate impacts on stock markets may be limited, long-term policy implementations can significantly drive market performance, particularly in technology sectors [8]. 3. **Social Welfare Opportunities**: There are notable opportunities in social welfare sectors, particularly in elderly care and health management, which may see increased investment and development [3][17].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪反复 铝价高位整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，进入 10 月后，北方部分电解铝企业反馈，受下游加工材 需求旺季带动，铝水直供比例预期提高，这将直接导致铝锭产量维持低位， 减少市 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the gold market and the broader context of precious and base metals, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Market Dynamics**: - Gold has seen a significant price increase, nearly 10% in a week, driven by declining trust in government currencies and rising geopolitical tensions [2] - The price of gold is expected to stabilize after geopolitical tensions ease, but it remains a crucial asset in the precious metals sector [1][7] - The gold-to-silver ratio is currently around 80, expected to correct to below 60 as economic conditions stabilize [2][11] - **Base Metals Outlook**: - The outlook for base metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to supply disruptions from natural disasters and geopolitical events [1][8] - Copper is anticipated to remain in a supply shortage throughout the next year, driven by natural factors affecting production [9][10] - Electrolytic aluminum is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its low valuation and cyclical nature [9] - **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Relations**: - Recent escalations in U.S.-China trade tensions have introduced market uncertainties but also present investment opportunities in scarce assets like base metals and renewable energy [5][6] - The potential for negotiations between the two nations may alleviate current tensions, impacting market dynamics positively [6] - **Phosphate Market**: - Phosphate prices have rebounded to near 2022 highs, driven by demand in agriculture and the renewable energy sector, particularly lithium iron phosphate [2][17] - A global supply gap of 4% is noted due to surging demand from China's renewable energy sector [18] Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategies**: - Investors are advised to focus on base metals and renewable energy assets as key areas for potential growth amidst current market volatility [4][5] - The steel sector is suggested as a defensive strategy due to expected production declines [2][11] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - The rise of right-wing politics and global political polarization is contributing to a decline in trust in fiat currencies, further driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold and base metals [1][2] - **Market Valuation**: - Base metals are currently valued at historical lows compared to gold, indicating potential for price increases [8] - **Future Projections**: - The copper market is expected to see price increases in the upcoming quarters, driven by ongoing supply constraints and rising demand from new economic sectors [10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, focusing on the gold and base metals markets, the implications of geopolitical tensions, and strategic investment opportunities.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term adjustments. Alumina prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile bottom - grinding market. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strengthen in the medium - term. Nickel prices are expected to have increased volatility and a lower oscillation center. Stainless steel prices are expected to weaken. Tin prices will be in a short - term high - level oscillation. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon prices may have a limited short - term callback. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to reduce inventory and support the price [6][14][20][46][53][60][64][71][76] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,120 yuan/ton, down 2.06%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced positions by 12,125 lots to 566,100 lots. The spot market trading improved with price drops, and the premium in Shanghai rose [2] - **Important Information**: As of October 13, the national copper inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 17.2 million tons. In September, China imported 2.587 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import from January to September was 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 521,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks and supply - side problems have affected copper prices. Mine supply tension has intensified, and consumption shows "not prosperous in the peak season", but there may be an increase in demand after price adjustments [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline. Keep options on hold [7][8][9] Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 57 yuan to 2,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions declined [10] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang purchased 10,000 tons of alumina on October 13. As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. In September, the actual production of alumina was 8.06 million tons, the net export was about 80,000 tons, and the demand was 7.552 million tons [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by market sentiment, alumina prices fell. Although the static surplus has been absorbed, the surplus trend remains. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading shows a weak and volatile trend. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [15][16] Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 205 yuan to 20,885 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. In September, the national electrolytic aluminum weighted average full - cost was 15,977 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4,798 yuan/ton. On October 13, the national aluminum ingot spot inventory was 642,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons [17] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the medium - term upward trend remains. The market may have large - amplitude fluctuations [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Be on the sidelines in the short - term for single - side trading, and the medium - term trend is upward. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [21][22][23] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 20,335 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [25] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. On October 13, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi decreased by 703 tons, and the casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased by 2,503 tons [25][26] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in prices. Before the implementation of tariffs is clear, the negative impact of macro - sentiment on aluminum products is significant. The price will be weak, and scrap aluminum prices may support the spot price [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to tariff policy developments for single - side trading. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [28][29][31] Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Zinc 2511 dropped 0.58% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced positions by 2,771 lots to 212,600 lots. The spot market trading was light [32] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national zinc ingot inventory was 163,100 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons from September 29 [33] - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc smelters increased production, and consumption did not improve significantly. The domestic price was under pressure, while the LME price was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may continue [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Close profitable short positions and wait for the export window to open to short again. Keep arbitrage on hold and close out the sold out - of - the - money call options [35][37] Lead - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Lead 2511 dropped 0.18% to 17,095 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased positions by 5,004 lots to 82,700 lots. Part of the downstream replenished inventory, and the spot market had different purchasing attitudes [36] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national lead ingot social inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from September 29. The electric bicycle trade - in policy in Changsha and Shaoyang will be suspended on October 20 [39] - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was relatively low. The inventory decreased during the National Day. The supply is weaker than demand currently, but the supply may increase in the second half of October, and the price may fall after rising [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise in the short - term but fall after rising. Keep arbitrage on hold and sell out - of - the - money call options [41] Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 2,080 yuan to 121,410 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,785 lots. Spot premiums changed [43] - **Related Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit for nickel futures on October 14. Some Indonesian mining companies resumed production. Goldman Sachs predicted that nickel prices would drop by 6% by December 2026 [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Due to the lack of profit - taking and Trump's remarks, the decline was relatively mild. The "de - globalization" trend and the surplus pattern will lead to increased volatility and a lower center of oscillation [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of the main contract. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 205 yuan to 12,655 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 28,538 lots. The spot price range was given [51] - **Important Information**: Indonesia won the stainless - steel anti - dumping lawsuit against the EU, which is expected to boost exports. The national stainless - steel social inventory increased during the holiday [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The escalation of the Sino - US trade war affected external demand, and the inventory increased. The price was under pressure, and the market was waiting to see the inventory digestion this week [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will weaken. Keep arbitrage on hold [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 282,110 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The spot price dropped, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [57] - **Related Information**: The US postponed the release of CPI data. As of October 10, the national tin ingot inventory decreased by 568 tons compared with September 26 [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks led to a price drop. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption recovery [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Keep options on hold [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production capacity in Xinjiang decreased, and the production capacity in the east increased. The southwest may reduce production in November [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: The production decreased in Xinjiang and increased in the east. The southwest will reduce production in November. The demand is strong in the short - term, and the price may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions. There is no arbitrage and option strategy currently [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production increased in October, and the silicon wafer production decreased [70][71] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increased and the demand decreased in October. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November is the core driver of the price callback. The rumored state - purchase may limit the callback space [71] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Try to go long near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Hold the reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 780 yuan to 72,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,306 lots. The spot price dropped [74] - **Important Information**: A lithium project in Jiangxi had major changes. In September, the sales of new - energy vehicles and the production of ternary materials increased [76] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply growth rate is lower than the demand in October, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the price. Consider closing short positions and going long if the price falls below 70,000 yuan [76] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds and close short positions if the price falls below 70,000 yuan. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].