核心结论：凯文·沃什获得提名属于超预期的结果，直至本次提名宣布 前一天，沃什和里德尔的概率仍相差不大。政策主张看，沃什主张缩表 和降息并行，比现任主席鲍威尔更偏鸽派、但比此前的热门人选哈塞 特更偏鹰派。沃什的提名后续仍需要参议院的确认，但由于鲍威尔受 到司法调查一事引发诸多共和党参议员不满，参议院确认进程可能不 会很顺畅。沃什提名前后，市场对美联储降息的预期变化不大，目前市 场仍预期下次降息在 6 月、全年降息 2 次，这可能是由于沃什的政策 立场相对中性且更加"灵活"。市场影响方面，短期看，预计沃什的提 名将利空美股和黄金，并推升美元和美债收益率，尤其是黄金，目前做 多较为拥挤且估值已处于高位，阶段性回调压力较大；中长期看，沃什 能否保持政策独立性仍是影响市场的核心变量，需持续关注。 1、沃什的背景资料及政策主张？ 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 宏观点评 美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点 事件：北京时间 1 月 30 日 19:48，美国总统特朗普在其个人社交媒体 Truth Social 上宣布，将提名凯文·沃什担任下一届美联储主席。 >背景资料：凯文 ...

Group 1 - Ukraine's armed forces launched an attack on the Saratov oil refinery in Russia, which is a critical fuel infrastructure responsible for supplying oil products to the Russian military, with an annual processing capacity of 7 million tons of crude oil [2][3] - The attack resulted in explosions and fires at the refinery, and a drone also crashed in a residential area, causing one death and damage to several residential buildings [2][3] - The recent attacks on Russian oil facilities, including the Ryazan refinery, which has a daily processing capacity of approximately 340,000 barrels, indicate a strategic escalation in Ukraine's military operations [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is expected to focus on short-term goals such as ceasefire agreements, which could lead to temporary emotional reactions in major asset classes like gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar [1][5] - If the U.S.-Russia talks achieve substantial breakthroughs regarding sanctions relief, it could have significant impacts on major asset classes, particularly in the energy sector, where the restoration of Russian energy supplies to Europe remains uncertain [6] - In the metals sector, the potential lifting of sanctions could lead to changes in prices for copper, aluminum, and nickel, while in the grain sector, a ceasefire could result in the lifting of Russia's grain export restrictions [6]

Group 1 - Ukraine's armed forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery in Russia, which is a key fuel infrastructure responsible for supplying oil products to the Russian military, with an annual processing capacity of 7 million tons of crude oil [2][3] - The attack occurred just before a planned meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, indicating Ukraine's stance on the upcoming negotiations [2][5] - The strike on the Saratov refinery follows a previous attack on the Ryazan refinery, which is one of Russia's largest, resulting in a significant reduction in its crude oil intake [4] Group 2 - The potential outcomes of the upcoming US-Russia summit may focus on short-term goals such as ceasefire agreements, which could lead to temporary emotional reactions in major asset classes, including a potential decline in geopolitical risk premiums for gold, oil, and the US dollar [2][6] - If substantial breakthroughs are achieved regarding sanctions on Russia, it could have a more significant impact on major assets, particularly in the energy sector, where the restoration of energy supply to Europe remains uncertain [7] - In the metals sector, the lifting of sanctions could lead to expected changes in prices for copper, aluminum, and nickel, while in the grain sector, a ceasefire could result in the lifting of Russia's grain export restrictions [7]