Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported stable gold futures inventory, with significant fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. economic data and market conditions [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,072 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 1,123.94 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,130.38 CNY and a low of 1,087.32 CNY, currently trading at 1,110.10 CNY, down 1.61% [1] - Trading volume for the day was 3,035.68 lots, with open interest decreasing by 1,412 lots to 153,140 lots [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Last night, gold prices dropped sharply, with New York gold falling nearly $200 per ounce, breaking below $5,000 per ounce, which corresponded to a decline in Shanghai gold prices to around 1,100 CNY per gram [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed slight strengthening, and January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, which led to a decrease in market rate cut expectations [1] - The Nasdaq index experienced a notable decline, indicating poor global market liquidity in the short term [1]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 去美元化长期趋势不变，短期全 球流动性下降，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 节前资金了结意愿强，驱动不强 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜金价跳水，纽约金一度下挫近 200 ...

【中信证券：依旧预计鲍威尔任期内美联储将不再降息】智通财经2月12日电，中信证券研报指出， 2026年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期、失业率低于预期。失业率下行至4.3%，教育和保健服务业撑 起整个私人服务新增就业。美国就业市场仍以招聘收缩为主，实际裁员尚未扩散，但裁员意向有所抬 升。市场在1月非农报告发布前本更加关注2025-March基准终值修订情况，担心年度修订"破百万"。不 过，与初值相近的终值并未掀起波澜，反而是1月强于预期的就业数据使得市场降息预期下修。我们依 旧预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息，认为沃什担任美联储主席后，下半年基准情形降息1–2次25bps。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-5 ⾦银冲⾼回落，短线震荡延续 ⽇内⾦银价格冲⾼后震荡回落，回吐部分涨幅，主要受美伊和俄乌地缘紧 张局势升级、以及美国政府暂停部分"停摆"等影响。当地时间2⽉3⽇， 美军在阿拉伯海击落伊朗⼀架⽆⼈机，同⽇俄军出动70余枚导弹、450 架 ⽆⼈机袭击乌克兰，推升市场避险情绪；此外，同⽇特朗普在⽩宫签署政 府拨款法案、结束政府部分"停摆"。4⽇晚间公布的美国1⽉ADP就业⼈ 数、ISM⾮制造业PMI均不及前值，⼀定程度上提振市场降息预期。预计 短线⾦银价格仍维持宽幅震荡，⽩银操作建议谨慎；近⽇地缘局势升级叠 加美国就业数据⾛软对贵⾦属形成⽀撑；但当前⾦银市场波动率仍处于⾼ 位，波动⻛险较⼤，⽩银端尤为明显。（数据来源：万得；新闻来源：央 视新闻、中新⽹） 黄金观点：短线大概率呈现宽幅震荡走势。 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价冲高回落，COMEX金价一度 站上5100美元/盎司，沪金一度站上1100元/克；主要受益于美伊、俄 乌地缘局势在和谈前生变推升的避险情绪，然而投资者信心仍偏脆 弱。据央视新闻、北京日报报道，2 月 ...

核心结论：凯文·沃什获得提名属于超预期的结果，直至本次提名宣布 前一天，沃什和里德尔的概率仍相差不大。政策主张看，沃什主张缩表 和降息并行，比现任主席鲍威尔更偏鸽派、但比此前的热门人选哈塞 特更偏鹰派。沃什的提名后续仍需要参议院的确认，但由于鲍威尔受 到司法调查一事引发诸多共和党参议员不满，参议院确认进程可能不 会很顺畅。沃什提名前后，市场对美联储降息的预期变化不大，目前市 场仍预期下次降息在 6 月、全年降息 2 次，这可能是由于沃什的政策 立场相对中性且更加"灵活"。市场影响方面，短期看，预计沃什的提 名将利空美股和黄金，并推升美元和美债收益率，尤其是黄金，目前做 多较为拥挤且估值已处于高位，阶段性回调压力较大；中长期看，沃什 能否保持政策独立性仍是影响市场的核心变量，需持续关注。 1、沃什的背景资料及政策主张？ 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 宏观点评 美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点 事件：北京时间 1 月 30 日 19:48，美国总统特朗普在其个人社交媒体 Truth Social 上宣布，将提名凯文·沃什担任下一届美联储主席。 >背景资料：凯文 ...

1月28日，多家金饰品牌足金报价突破1600元/克。其中，周大福报1618元/克，较1月27日的1578元/克，每克上调40元。 | 品 今日金价 手机版 港澳及海外版 | | CHOW TAI FOOK | | | Q & 0 白 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 周 大 福 | | | | | 首页 | 全部商品 | 婚嫁 CTF for YOU定制 | 企业业务 | 礼品卡 | | | | | 今日金价 | | | | | | | 更新于2026年01月28日 09:34:37 | | | | | | (半) | 足金 ( 饰品、工艺品类 ) | 1618 元/克 | | | | | 零售金价 | 工艺金章金条类 | 1419 元/克 | | | | | 〈半〉 黄金增值服务 | 黄金增值服务金价 (金条、金章不作增值服务) | 1379 元/克 | | | | | 含 黄金回收服务 | 黄金回收服务金价 11. 11 4 montage a 11. 1 m 1 1 l r m m st of the security and the ben i ...

1月14日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，沪锡期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅8%，报413170 元/吨，创历史新高。 宏观上，据南华期货（603093）介绍，美CPI数据出炉，虽众多美官员提示目前数据不支持降息，但市 场降息预期加强。 供给方面，五矿期货指出，缅甸佤邦锡矿产量逐步恢复，云南地区冶炼厂开工率维持在高位，上周开工 率为87.09%，与前周基本持平，但由于锡矿加工费持续处于低位，企业进一步开工意愿不足；江西地 区冶炼厂则面临再生原料供应不足的困境，精锡产量延续偏低水平，上周部分企业进一步小幅减产。 需求端，东海期货分析称，旺季不旺，行业分化严重，新能源汽车和AI算力需求稳定增长，但传统电 力和家电领域需求订单欠佳，另外光伏装机同比大幅下降。 展望后市，国泰君安期货表示，即便锡价已来到历史高位，但国内锡矿及锡锭的"隐形库存"相对干涸， 库存累积不及预期，甚至阶段性出现去库情况，库存水平仍处于历史中游区间。此外，其指出，锡在终 端应用上较为分散，使得终端对价格上涨并不敏感，价格上方的天然约束相对较轻。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Core View - The December non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, and the job market continued to cool. The new employment center continued to decline, but the unemployment rate dropped again, and the overall downward risk was still controllable. The market's expectation for interest rate cuts remained cautious after the data was released, with a high probability of a pause in rate cuts in January, and 1 - 2 rate cuts within 2026 likely to occur in the second half of the year [3][4][39] Summary by Relevant Catalog US 12 - month Non - farm Payrolls and Job Market Analysis - Non - farm payroll data: In December, non - farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, less than the market expectation of 60,000. The average monthly new jobs in the past 12 months were 48,000, and the new employment center further declined. The new employment numbers in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the market expectation and the previous value, and the labor participation rate marginally declined to 62.4%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.3% month - on - month, up from the previous value and in line with expectations, and 3.8% year - on - year, higher than expectations and the previous value [3][9] - Sector - specific employment: New employment mainly came from leisure and hospitality (47,000), education and healthcare (41,000), and government (13,000). All industries in the production sector laid off workers, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure due to high interest rates. The drag on employment from the government sector eased, and the service industry maintained employment resilience [3] - Private service employment: Private service employment added 58,000 jobs, up from the previous value. However, the retail industry laid off 25,000 workers for the third consecutive month, and the employment structure continued to deteriorate [19] - Government employment: In December, government employment increased by 13,000, with federal government employment increasing slightly by 2,000. Since January 2025, federal government employment has decreased by 277,000, a decline of 9.2%, and the subsequent drag on the job market from the government sector may ease [19] - Service industry employment: The end - of - year consumer demand rebounded, and employment in the catering service industry increased. The ISM service PMI in December rebounded significantly to 54.4, and the employment sub - index rose to 52, indicating that the service employment market remained resilient [23] - Production sector employment: The production sector continued to lay off workers, with a reduction of 21,000 jobs in December. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December further declined to 47.9, and the traditional manufacturing industry was still suppressed in a high - interest - rate environment [26] - Job vacancies: In November, the number of job vacancies dropped to 7.15 million, lower than expectations and the previous value. The service industry's job vacancies decreased significantly, while the production sector's job vacancies increased slightly [30] - Wage growth: In December, wage growth rebounded marginally, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.3% and a year - on - year growth rate of 3.8% higher than expectations. Most industries saw a rebound in wage growth, except for construction, professional and business services, and education and healthcare [34] - Working hours: In December, the average weekly working hours were 34.2 hours, slightly lower than expectations and the previous value. Most industries saw a decline in working hours, and the overall economic situation was stable [36] Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical risks have increased recently, with the Trump administration's military actions in Venezuela and its interest in Greenland's sovereignty. This has triggered short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, providing support for the US dollar index and precious metals. Economic data is mixed, and the market's expectation for the new Fed chair is divided between Hassett and Waller. The expectation for interest rate cuts remains cautious, with the US Treasury yield oscillating upwards and the US stock market oscillating at a high level [5][44]

【黄金期货行情表现】 昨晚美联储公布会议纪要显示，通胀回落，进一步降息是合适之举。但市场情绪偏谨慎，市场仍倾向于 押注2026年降息2次，而非此前更加激进的3次。美元指数反弹。黄金短线动能不足，但长线看多逻辑未 变。策略上沪金多头相对稳健，02合约前多可继续持有。 美联储12月会议纪要凸显内部分歧，多数官员认为如果通胀回落，适宜进一步降息，但也有一些决策者 主张在一段时间内按兵不动。交易员对明年降息两次的预估不变。 【机构观点】 12月31日，沪金主力暂报977.56元/克，跌幅0.85%，今日沪金主力开盘价993.76元/克，截至目前最高 993.76元/克，最低964.00元/克。 【宏观消息】 美联储会议纪要凸显内部分歧，大多数官员认为适宜进一步降息。OPEC+据悉本周可能维持暂停增产 计划不变。 ...