投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔放鸽， | | | | | | 偏强 | | 降息预期升温，利好金价 | | 铜 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 海外宏观回暖，国内临近旺季，产 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡 ...

Report Overview - The report is a gold weekly report covering the period from July 28, 2025, to August 3, 2025, analyzing the gold market's performance and influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US job market unexpectedly cooled, leading to a significant rebound in the outer - market gold price. The international gold price first declined and then rose, showing an overall obvious increase. This week, the gold price is expected to fluctuate upwards [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 1, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, down 0.85% from the previous week; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3416/ounce, up 2.41%. The gold T + D spot price closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, down 0.77%, and the London gold spot price closed at $3362.64/ounce, up 0.79% [5][8] 1.2 Gold Basis - On August 1, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $13.25/ounce, down $27.65 from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was - 0.26 yuan/gram, up 0.83 yuan from the previous week [9] 1.3 Gold Inner - Outer Disk Spread - The gold inner - outer disk spread fell significantly to - 17.48 yuan/gram. The gold - to - oil ratio decreased slightly, the gold - to - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - to - copper ratio rose significantly [12] 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. The global largest SPRD gold ETF fund holdings were 953.08 tons, down 4.01 tons. The domestic gold T + D cumulative trading volume decreased by 31.31%. In terms of futures positions, as of July 29, the net long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the SHFE gold inventory increased [16] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation for the third quarter exceeded $1 trillion. The US June JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, and the new hires decreased significantly. The US important housing price index fell for three consecutive months. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was better than expected, but the core PCE price index was higher than expected. Japan's central bank maintained the interest rate and raised the inflation forecast. The US July non - farm payrolls were far lower than expected [21][22][23][24][25][26][27] 2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - In July, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Powell cooled the market's expectation of a September rate cut. Some Fed officials believed the labor market was still stable, and inflation was the main concern [38][39][40] 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, with a slight increase of 1.04% to 97.67 [41] 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated downward, down 6bp to 1.90% [42] 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine situation were at a stalemate, which may increase market risk aversion [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is mainly weak with fluctuations. The main contract's operating range moves down due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the upcoming implementation of Sino - US tariffs, and the continuous inventory accumulation during the off - season. The variables are the inventory data in August and macro - stimulus situations [9] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2509 contract fluctuated and declined throughout the day, with small fluctuations during the day session and a negative close. The full - day trading volume was 145,300 lots, and the open interest was 248,613 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - There are 12 contracts for Shanghai Aluminum futures, with a total open interest of 591,031 lots, a decrease of 18,206 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract al2509 decreased by 12,750 lots, indicating capital outflows during the decline [4] 3.2 Spot Market - On July 31, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2509 strengthened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,590 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,510 yuan/ton, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Macro Information - Powell said that "it's too early to cut interest rates in September", causing the market's interest - rate cut expectation to drop from 64% to 46%. The US dollar index reached a two - month high, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The Politburo meeting's statement on "anti - involution" was milder than expected, and no super - expected stimulus signals were released, cooling market sentiment. The negotiation result of the suspension of Sino - US economic and trade tariffs expiring on August 1 has become a short - term key variable [7] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily price of the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract fell below the 20 - day moving average, with the support level at the 40 - day moving average. The MACD formed a death cross with an expanding green bar, the trading volume increased, and the price declined with capital outflows [8]

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 showed a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding the expected 2.4% and rebounding from a previous decline of -0.5% in Q1[2] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous quarter[2] Consumption and Trade - Personal consumption increased from a previous annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth[2] - Net exports improved significantly due to a sharp decline in imports, which fell from an annualized rate of 37.9% to -30.3%, raising the contribution to GDP from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a dramatic decline, with an annualized rate dropping from 23.8% in Q1 to -15.6% in Q2, negatively impacting GDP by 3.1 percentage points[2] - Residential investment continued to decline, with an annualized rate of -4.6% in Q2, reflecting ongoing pressures from high mortgage rates and immigration policies[2] Government Spending - Government spending rebounded to an annualized growth rate of 0.4% in Q2, driven primarily by increased defense spending and state/local government hiring[2] - State and local government expenditures rose from 2.0% in Q1 to 3.0% in Q2, indicating a positive trend in public sector investment[2] Market Reactions - Following the GDP release, market expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and bond yields, while gold prices fell[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved, reaching 61.8 in July, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market are influenced by multiple factors, leading to rising long-term yields while short-term rate cut expectations diminish [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.44% over two weeks [1] - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year yield increasing by 14 basis points [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions have created uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths, impacting market expectations [1] Group 2: Treasury Issuance and Fiscal Position - In early July, there was a slight decrease in short-term Treasury issuance, while long-term issuance saw a minor increase [1] - The US recorded a fiscal surplus of $27.01 billion in June, with a 12-month cumulative deficit slightly decreasing to $1.90 trillion [1] Group 3: Market Positioning and Speculation - As of July 15, net short positions in Treasury futures have slightly decreased to 5.74 million contracts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The Federal funds futures market transitioned from net short to net long positions, rising to 49,300 contracts, reflecting increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 4: Liquidity and Economic Indicators - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased by $60.15 billion over two weeks, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool shrank by $56.45 billion, indicating a release of liquidity [1] - The Federal Reserve's weekly indicator showed a reading of 2.37, suggesting a stabilization in the short-term outlook [1]

Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[1] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[1] Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs was evident in June, with furniture prices rising by 1% (previously 0.3%), clothing by 0.4% (previously -0.4%), and entertainment goods by 0.8% (previously 0.4%)[3] - It is estimated that tariffs have contributed 14% to CPI if core prices remained at February levels, and 40% if they followed last year's declining trend[4] Future Tariff Effects - Assuming the overall tariff rate increases to 17.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core prices could add approximately 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to a 0.5-0.54 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] - If the remaining tariff effects manifest over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could reach 3.2% and 3.3% in Q3 and Q4, respectively[10] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts slightly decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from 1.93 to 1.76 for the year[1] - The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 60.1% to 55%, while year-end policy rate expectations rose from 3.846% to 3.89%[1]

Group 1: Inflation and CPI Data - In June, the US CPI increased year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[2] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] - The proportion of CPI items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rose from 40.8% to 44.1%, indicating a broadening inflationary trend[24] Group 2: Tariff Impact on CPI - The estimated impact of tariffs on CPI shows that if core goods prices remained at February levels, the tariff effect could account for 14% of CPI; if prices followed last year's downward trend, the effect could be 40%[4] - The remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core goods prices is estimated to be around 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to an overall CPI impact of 0.5-0.54 percentage points[23] - For specific high-import-dependency goods, tariffs have been reflected in CPI as follows: toys and games (52%), furniture (70%), clothing (10%) if prices remained at February levels[18] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76, and the probability of a September cut dropping from 60.1% to 55%[2] - Bloomberg's consensus forecast for year-on-year CPI in Q3 and Q4 is 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, reflecting the anticipated impact of remaining tariffs[23]

Group 1 - The recent rebound in gold prices is influenced by three main factors: dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, renewed trade tensions, and increased gold purchases by the People's Bank of China [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates as early as September, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with a notable addition of 70,000 ounces in June, bringing total reserves to 73.9 million ounces [1] Group 2 - China's central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves is seen as a response to external financial shocks and aims to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [2] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against risks associated with single currencies like the US dollar, especially in the context of trade wars and economic uncertainty [2] - Despite the continuous increase in gold reserves, China's holdings still lag behind those of developed economies, indicating potential for further accumulation of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a robust job market, but there are mixed signals regarding employment strength and potential economic implications [1][3][14]. Group 1: Non-Farm Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the forecast of 106,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding expectations [1][14]. - Job growth was concentrated in four sectors: government (+73,000), education and healthcare services (+51,000), leisure and hospitality (+20,000), and construction (+15,000) [1][16]. - The employment diffusion index fell to 49.6%, indicating a low breadth of job growth compared to historical averages [14]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, with a decline in the labor force participation rate from 62.4% to 62.3% [2][20]. - Youth and female labor force participation saw significant declines, contributing to the drop in the unemployment rate [20][21]. Group 3: Wage Growth - Wage growth was below expectations, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.2% month-over-month, compared to the expected 0.3% [2][26]. - Weekly hours worked decreased from 34.3 to 34.2, leading to a 0.1% decline in weekly earnings, marking the first negative growth this year [2][26]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts diminished significantly, with July cut probabilities dropping from 25.3% to 4.7% and September from 91% to 70.7% [2][28]. - U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 0.83%, while the dollar index increased by 0.35% [2][28].

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has led consumers to deliberate on whether to purchase gold, particularly for jewelry or investment purposes [1] - The current gold price is influenced by international market trends, interest rate expectations, and heightened risk aversion [4] Price Trends - Major gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are quoting prices between 1003-1005 yuan per gram, an increase of 5-7 yuan from previous prices [4] - China Gold's price is lower at 969 yuan per gram, allowing for significant savings when purchasing larger quantities [4] Price Differentiation - The price of jewelry gold is significantly higher than investment gold due to factors like craftsmanship, brand premium, and operational costs [5] - For example, a 10-gram gold chain from Chow Tai Fook costs approximately 10,050 yuan, while an equivalent investment gold bar costs around 7,850 yuan, highlighting a price difference of 2,200 yuan [5] Purchasing Strategies - For investment purposes, it is advisable to choose investment gold bars or wholesale gold, which have lower premiums and are closer to international gold prices [6] - For personal use or collection, consumers should compare prices across different brands to find the best deal [8] - For savings or appreciation, it is recommended to wait for a slight correction in international gold prices or to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate investment risks [8] Timing for Purchase - Concerns about buying at a peak are valid, but high price levels do not necessarily indicate an imminent drop [9] - Gold investment should focus on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [9] - If there is a pressing need and funds can be held long-term, short-term price fluctuations may be less impactful [9] Conclusion - The ongoing rise in gold prices necessitates careful consideration in purchasing decisions [10] - Consumers should align their gold product choices and timing with their specific needs to avoid unnecessary losses and achieve investment goals [10]