Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under short-term pressure for adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price corrected from its high. Due to the easing of sentiment and profit - taking by long positions, the previous risk premium was retracted. The stronger US dollar and tightened liquidity expectations suppressed the valuation of commodities [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts have affected the supply in the Middle East, with a decrease in daily output expected [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory, but the pressure has been alleviated, and the inventory accumulation slope has shown signs of moderation. As of March 19, the inventory was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the price of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The Back structure has weakened. Domestic high inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported stable gold futures inventory, with significant fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. economic data and market conditions [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,072 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 1,123.94 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,130.38 CNY and a low of 1,087.32 CNY, currently trading at 1,110.10 CNY, down 1.61% [1] - Trading volume for the day was 3,035.68 lots, with open interest decreasing by 1,412 lots to 153,140 lots [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Last night, gold prices dropped sharply, with New York gold falling nearly $200 per ounce, breaking below $5,000 per ounce, which corresponded to a decline in Shanghai gold prices to around 1,100 CNY per gram [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed slight strengthening, and January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, which led to a decrease in market rate cut expectations [1] - The Nasdaq index experienced a notable decline, indicating poor global market liquidity in the short term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For gold, the long - term trend of de - dollarization remains unchanged, but short - term global liquidity decline puts pressure on the gold price. For copper, pre - holiday capital settlement willingness is strong and the driving force is weak. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both gold and copper [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic**: Last night, the gold price plunged. The New York gold dropped nearly $200 per ounce, breaking below $5000 per ounce, and the corresponding Shanghai gold fell to the 1100 yuan per gram mark. The US dollar index strengthened slightly. The US non - farm payrolls added 130,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations, which led to a decline in market expectations for interest rate cuts. Attention can be paid to the US inflation data tonight. In addition, the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq index, also declined significantly last night, and short - term global market liquidity is poor. As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, funds tend to be cautious. During the Spring Festival holiday, geopolitical relations between the US and Iran are still tense, and the market's pricing of the candidate Fed chairman may be repeated, especially the movement of Kevin Warsh needs attention [3]. Copper - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic**: Last night, the copper price dived following the precious metals. The main contract price of Shanghai copper fell more than 2000 yuan per ton, once breaking below the 100,000 - yuan mark, and the open interest of Shanghai copper continued to decline. The copper price trend is similar to that of silver. On Wednesday, the US non - farm data exceeded expectations, the silver price dived significantly, and the copper price followed and weakened. Since February, the copper price has shown a pattern of reducing positions and oscillating. The pre - holiday industrial pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, the willingness of funds to settle positions has increased, and the driving force for the copper price is insufficient. It follows the trend of precious metals but shows resistance to decline. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark. During the Spring Festival holiday, pay attention to the remarks of US President Trump and the actions of the Federal Reserve, which may affect macro - expectations, and also pay attention to the inventory accumulation situation during the domestic holiday [4].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates during Powell's term, with potential rate cuts anticipated only after the appointment of a new chairperson, such as Waller, in the second half of the year [1] Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added more non-farm jobs than expected, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% [1] - The education and healthcare sectors were significant contributors to the increase in private sector employment [1] Market Reactions - Prior to the release of the January non-farm report, the market was focused on the potential revision of the 2025-March benchmark value, with concerns that annual revisions could exceed one million [1] - However, the final value, which was close to the initial estimate, did not cause significant market disruption; instead, the stronger-than-expected employment data led to a downward adjustment in rate cut expectations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is likely to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term, while its long - term upward support logic remains unchanged [1] - Silver will also experience wide - range volatility in the short - term with higher volatility risk than gold, and its long - term bullish support is still strong [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Gold prices at home and abroad rose and then fell. COMEX gold price once reached $5,100 per ounce, and Shanghai gold once reached 1,100 yuan per gram [1] - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and between Russia and Ukraine increased market risk - aversion. The US ADP employment number and ISM non - manufacturing PMI in January were lower than the previous values, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, gold is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. In the long - term, the upward support logic remains intact [1] Silver - **Market Performance**: Silver prices also rose and then fell. COMEX silver price once reached $92 per ounce, and Shanghai silver once reached 24,000 yuan per gram [2] - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical changes increased market risk - aversion, but the positive driving force on the silver spot side weakened. Since mid - January, the silver tariff risk has declined, the US silver hoarding pace has slowed down, and the London silver spot lease rate has decreased [2] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, silver is expected to maintain wide - range volatility with greater volatility risk than gold. In the long - term, the bullish support is still strong [2] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on February 4, 2026, with growth rates of 1.99%, 2.43%, 1.42%, and 1.75% respectively [42] - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 4, 2026, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 5.88%, a 5 - day decline of 18.91%, a 1 - month increase of 9.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.25% [43]

Group 1: Key Points on Kevin Walsh's Nomination - Kevin Walsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair was unexpected, as prior to the announcement, his probability of being nominated was closely matched with that of Riedel[1] - Walsh advocates for a combination of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts, positioning him as more dovish than current Chair Powell but more hawkish than the previously favored candidate, Hassett[1] - The Senate confirmation process for Walsh may face challenges due to dissatisfaction among Republican senators regarding Powell's judicial investigation, potentially complicating the approval timeline[1] Group 2: Market Impact and Expectations - Following Walsh's nomination, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with a 40% probability for cuts in March and April, and over 80% for June, indicating a forecast of two cuts for the year[1] - Major stock indices reacted negatively post-nomination, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones dropping by 0.4%, 0.9%, and 0.4% respectively, while the dollar index rose by 1.0% to 97.1[1] - Gold prices fell significantly by 9.3% to $4,880 per ounce, reflecting a crowded long position and high valuation levels[1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold price for jewelry has surged past 1600 yuan per gram, reaching new highs, driven by international gold price increases and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2][4]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Multiple jewelry brands have reported gold prices exceeding 1600 yuan per gram, with Chow Tai Fook at 1618 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Other brands include Lao Feng Xiang at 1620 yuan, an increase of 2.79%, and Lao Miao at 1612 yuan, up 2.35% [2][3]. - The price changes reflect a broader trend in the market, with significant daily increases across various brands [3]. Group 2: International Gold Prices - International gold prices have also seen substantial increases, with COMEX gold reaching 5210 USD per ounce, up 2.51%, and London gold at 5223.945 USD per ounce, up 0.81% [3]. - The rising international prices are contributing to the bullish sentiment in the domestic market [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties are maintaining high market risk aversion, which supports gold prices [4]. - Analysts remain bullish on gold, with major institutions raising their price targets significantly, including Bank of America to 6000 USD per ounce and Goldman Sachs to 5400 USD per ounce [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with tin futures reaching a historical high of 413,170 yuan/ton, up 8% [1] Supply Side - Tin production in Myanmar's Wa State is gradually recovering, while the smelting plant operating rate in Yunnan remains high at 87.09%, unchanged from the previous week. However, low processing fees for tin ore have led to reduced willingness for further production [2] - In Jiangxi, smelting plants are facing a shortage of recycled raw materials, resulting in continued low levels of refined tin production, with some companies further reducing output last week [2] Demand Side - Demand is uneven across the industry, with stable growth in the electric vehicle and AI computing sectors, while traditional electricity and home appliance sectors are experiencing weak order demand. Additionally, solar photovoltaic installations have seen a significant year-on-year decline [2] Market Outlook - Despite tin prices reaching historical highs, the "invisible inventory" of domestic tin mines and ingots is relatively depleted, with inventory accumulation falling short of expectations and even showing signs of depletion. Current inventory levels remain in the mid-range historically [2] - The diverse end-use applications of tin result in lower sensitivity to price increases, indicating that the natural constraints on prices are relatively light [2]