热点报告——外汇期货 美国 12 月非农不及预期， 就业市场继续降温 | 走势评级： | 美元：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 年 1 月 10 日 | ★ 美国 12 月非农不及预期，就业市场继续降温： 外 汇 美国 12 月非农新增就业 5 万人，不及市场预期的 6 万人。过去 12 个月平均每月新增 4.8 万人，新增就业中枢进一步下移。10 月新增 就业人数由减少 10.5 人下修至减少 17.3 万，11 月由新增 6.4 万人 下修至 5.6 万人，合计下修 7.6 万人。失业率回落至 4.4%，低于市 场预期和前值，劳动参与率边际回落至 62.4%；时薪环比增速 0.3%，较前值回升，符合预期，同比增速 3.8%，高于预期和前 值。数据公布后，美元指数和美债收益率震荡回升，黄金和美股录 得上涨。 期 货 分行业而言，新增就业主要来自于：休闲和酒店业（4.7 万），教育 和医疗保健（4.1 万），政府部门（1.3 万）。生产部门所有行业均出 现裁员，高利率下制造业依然承压，政府部门对就业的拖累有所缓 解，服务业就业维持韧性。 总体而言，12 月非农显示就业市场继 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 昨晚美联储公布会议纪要显示，通胀回落，进一步降息是合适之举。但市场情绪偏谨慎，市场仍倾向于 押注2026年降息2次，而非此前更加激进的3次。美元指数反弹。黄金短线动能不足，但长线看多逻辑未 变。策略上沪金多头相对稳健，02合约前多可继续持有。 美联储12月会议纪要凸显内部分歧，多数官员认为如果通胀回落，适宜进一步降息，但也有一些决策者 主张在一段时间内按兵不动。交易员对明年降息两次的预估不变。 【机构观点】 12月31日，沪金主力暂报977.56元/克，跌幅0.85%，今日沪金主力开盘价993.76元/克，截至目前最高 993.76元/克，最低964.00元/克。 【宏观消息】 美联储会议纪要凸显内部分歧，大多数官员认为适宜进一步降息。OPEC+据悉本周可能维持暂停增产 计划不变。 ...

来源：金十数据 e field and the line of the mail the 金源期货:宜春采矿权注销消息引发多头情绪高涨,放量突破前高。但需警惕冲 高回落:注销矿权多为到期且非核心产能;基本面上需求走弱,储能排产停滞; 社会库存去化放缓甚至存隐性库存风险。年底资金回流压力下,不建议过度追 高。 | 今日热点资讯 广期所强化穿透式监管,严打违规行为,切实保障市场平稳运行。 监管 ae 印尼镍矿商协会:2026年镍矿石产量目标大幅下调至2.5亿吨(2025年为 3.79亿吨),意在防止镍价进一步下跌。 综合市场分析指出,今日市场情绪高涨,碳酸锂在"注销采矿权"消息刺激 热门品种机构观点 一、铂、钯期货主力合约：铂钯期货今日双双涨停，均创上市以来新高！ 多晶硅分会:12月产量预计仍在12万吨以内,西南枯水期减产限制了复 光伏 产增量。预计2025全年产量133万吨。 ■ 找钢网数据:全国建材周度产量增加2.87万吨,但社库和总库均出现超30 万吨的降幅,表需回升。 | 板块涨跌幅 工业品 新能源 n sa se + 4 4 % | 软商 | 油脂链 | 油脂 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月17日电（吴郑思、郭洲洋）国内商品期货市场周三（12月17日）整体走强，多数品种强势走高。截至收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报 1518.98点，较前一交易日上涨10.71点，涨幅0.71%；中证商品期货指数收报2096.85点，较前一交易日上涨14.02点，涨幅0.67%。 分品种来看，广期所品种集体表现活跃。除铂钯尾盘携手涨停以外，碳酸锂盘中涨近9%、终盘收高7.61%，力压铂钯领涨当日商品市场。另外，多晶硅增仓 涨超4%，并再创上市以来新高。不过，同样走强的还有白银。在海外银价突破65美元、66美元两道关口的提振下，沪银收盘站上15500元／千克。 贵金属中工业属性偏强的品种17日再度集体飙升。其中铂钯主力合约均收于涨停价并创历史新高；白银也大涨超5%，终盘沪银主力合约站上15500元／千克 关口，盘中也再度刷新了历史新高。隔夜公布的11月美国非农就业报告偏弱，市场降息预期进一步增加，贵金属得到一定支撑，但金价驱动有限，而工业需 求较强的铂钯和白银则更受到市场的热捧。铜冠金源期货表示，短期供应紧张为钯价格提供了基本面支撑。铂、钯供给端存在现货压力，铂金属现货租赁利 率持续 ...

股指期货日报 2025年11月26日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指涨跌不一，市场存在分歧 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，除中证1000指数收跌外其余均收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落288.01亿元。期指 方面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC持平，IM缩量下跌。 重要资讯 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | -0.15 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | 1.02 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 0.47 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 17833.46 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | -288.01 | 核心观点 昨晚美国公布最新PPI数据，核心PPI环比增速低于市场预期，强化市场降息预期，不过由于在数据公布前， 联邦基金利率期货价格显示美联储12月降息概率已高于80%，即市场已提前交易降息预期，因此市场反应相 对平淡。期指基差方面，与现货表现分化，今日现货走势相对较弱的IH、IM贴水收敛，IF、IC则贴水加深， 表明市场存在分歧，多空博弈特征较强。关注今晚将公布的美国PCE物价数据，若超出市场 ...

周五亚洲盘面，黄金依旧守在 4080 美元附近，整体波动幅度有限。市场节奏仍围绕美联储 12 月会议展 开，而隔夜发布的美国就业数据显著超过预期，使原本快速聚集的降息预期明显回落。美元因此获得支 撑，黄金的反弹势头再次受阻。 最新公布的 9 月非农录得增加 11.9 万人，远超市场先前预估的 5 万人；与此同时，8 月就业数据被下修 为减少 4000 人，失业率也从 4.3% 升至 4.4%。由于政府停摆造成的延后统计，使得这份报告在发布时 间上更具突发性，投资者也因此重新审视美国劳动力市场的韧性与后续政策空间。 尽管利率预期重新转向令黄金承压，但下方的支撑力量依然稳固。避险资金在全球宏观风险未完全消散 的背景下持续流入，同时央行增持步伐并未放慢。数据显示，中国人民银行 9 月增持黄金 1.2 吨，并在 10 月实现连续第 12 个月增储。随着美国 PMI 初值及消费者信心指数将在晚间公布，市场情绪可能再 度切换，金价短线节奏将继续受数据牵引。 黄金目前在 4080—4100 区间内反复整理。更强劲的就业数据压缩了市场降息预期，而美联储内部持续 存在的分歧也限制了金价上行空间。不过，避险资金与央行持续增持为下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Since Tuesday this week, the gold price has rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold rebounded after falling below $4000 and reached the $4100 mark last night. Shanghai gold once rebounded above 940 last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in precious metals was mainly due to hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, which reduced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the downward revision of the interest - rate - cut expectation was largely due to the market's previous optimistic expectations, and its sustainability is not strong, and it will return to being data - driven. The market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market's sentiment of reduced interest - rate - cut expectation has been released, leading to short - term emotional repair [3]. - **Key Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data for September to be released on Thursday this week and subsequent economic data, which will directly affect the market's expectation of Fed policies and determine the short - term trend of precious metals [3]. - **Long - term Impact**: After the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of October, market risk appetite has increased. If there is significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the gold price may continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the $4000 mark below and the resistance at $4200 above [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper showed a slightly upward oscillation yesterday, and the main contract price stood above the 86,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the market has warmed up, precious metals have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metals have also shown a rebound trend. The short - term market sentiment towards the Fed's hawkish stance has been released, and the market may experience emotional repair. In the industry, spot trading has also improved [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the 86,000 mark [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, due to the Fed turning hawkish, the gold price has declined in the short - term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the downward revision of the interest - rate cut expectation may not be sustainable and subsequent economic data will be crucial for its short - term trend [1][3]. - For copper, although there is short - term volatility due to the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs, in the long - run, it is expected to be strong as macro - economic easing and supply contraction are likely to support the copper price [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: The New York gold hit the bottom and rebounded at the $4000 mark. The gold price is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term shock, and intraday shock - weak pattern [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a decline in the market's interest - rate cut expectation. As of November 18, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%, compared to over 70% in early November. The focus should be on the September US non - farm payroll data to be released this Thursday and subsequent economic data, which will determine the short - term trend of precious metals. Technically, the $4000 mark support should be monitored [3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The copper price rebounded last night. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once recovered the 86,000 mark and then declined, with a slight increase in open interest. It is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term strong, and intraday shock - strong pattern [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The market's expectation of a December 2025 interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%. The London copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction are expected to support the copper price. Technically, the long - short battle at the 86,000 mark should be monitored [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a downward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, causing the gold price to decline in the short term [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "strength", and "oscillation with an upward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic conditions are loose and there are mine - end production cuts. In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate, but in the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the gold price dropped significantly from its high, erasing all weekly gains. On Monday, it maintained a weak trend, with the New York gold price diving in the late trading and approaching the $4000 mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in the gold price is largely due to the Fed's hawkish turn. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December 2025 has dropped below 50%. Short - term gold price has fallen after a rise, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to take profits. Attention should be paid to the support at the $4000 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Overnight, the copper price continued its weak oscillation. The recent decline in the copper price is mainly due to the Fed's hawkish turn, which has reduced the market's rate - cut expectations. The London copper price is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure [4]. - **Driving Factors**: In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Affected by the short - selling of Nvidia and Palantir by the fund under Michael Burry, the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", the US stock AI sector plunged. Coupled with intensified concerns about high valuations, US stocks tumbled, and the Asia - Pacific market continued to decline generally. The A - share market's risk appetite was affected, opening lower today. The large - cap stock index was relatively resilient, rising before the morning close with a style switch between large and small - cap stocks. Except for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, all other indices closed higher at the afternoon close, with the TMT sector leading the decline throughout the day. In the three trading days this week, the intraday trend of stock indices rebounded, indicating strong support below, but lacking sufficient upward momentum. The trading volume of the two markets has been below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, showing a state of being supported but not rising. There are long - short differences in the current market, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The US ADP data to be released tonight is expected to influence the market's interest - rate cut expectations and thus have an impact on the stock index trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Composite 50, which slightly declined, all other stock indices closed higher. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed up 0.19%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 434.17 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with increasing volume, while other varieties rose with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government's "shutdown" will break the record. - The "Big Short" is short - selling 80% of his positions in Palantir and Nvidia, expressing a bearish view on the AI bubble [3] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | - 0.01 | 0.55 | 0.77 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.6616 | 5.312 | 14.7163 | 23.8684 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.1583 | 0.2586 | 0.3196 | 0.5106 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.004 | 9.6978 | 25.6435 | 36.6783 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.158 | 0.2204 | 0.4279 | 0.331 | [5] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite change (%) | 0.23 | | Shenzhen Component change (%) | 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18723.41 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 434.17 | [6]