周二（9月23日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.35，涨幅0.04%，开盘价为97.31。 荷兰国际集团发布 的报告称，本发布的核心PCE通胀率（美联储偏爱的通胀衡量指标）可能会显得较为温和。 这也意味着对美国经济的压力可能仍会持续增加：通胀会进一步加剧，同时美国就业市场的需求方面也 会面临更大压力。虽然背景形势严峻，但这表明市场对于美联储未来货币政策放松的预期（比美联储本 周发布的最新"点阵图"所暗示的更为积极）是合理的。预计今年还会再有两次降息，2026年也会有两次 降息。 美元指数在布林带中轨上方运行，布林中轨97.0287，上轨97.2376，下轨96.8198。价格自96.2109的"针 刺式"低点迅速V形修复，并在96.8229一线形成二次回踩后的抬升节奏，说明下方买盘承接积极。 ...

Group 1 - In August, the total issuance scale of offshore Chinese bonds was approximately $22.7 billion, a month-on-month decrease of about 9% [2] - The issuance included $6.3 billion in sovereign bonds, $1.4 billion in government bonds, $5.7 billion in financial bonds, $4.8 billion in local government bonds, $4.0 billion in industrial bonds, and $0.5 billion in real estate bonds [2] - The average financing cost for offshore RMB-denominated bonds decreased to 3.42%, while the average financing cost for USD-denominated bonds increased slightly to 5.74% [4] Group 2 - In August, 51 Chinese enterprises issued 82 offshore bonds, totaling $15.1 billion, with an average bond size of $1.84 million [7] - The financial sector accounted for 25% of the total issuance, while local government and industrial sectors accounted for 21% and 18%, respectively [7] - The issuance volume in the financial sector increased by 37% month-on-month to $5.7 billion, with 13 issuers [10] Group 3 - The real estate sector saw a net financing outflow of approximately $0.4 billion in August, with a total outflow of $5.4 billion from January to August [20] - Several real estate companies reported their mid-year performance, with notable growth in sales and profits for state-owned enterprises [23] - Private real estate companies showed mixed results, with some managing to repay debts while others faced significant losses [24] Group 4 - The issuance of offshore bonds in the industrial sector increased by 66% month-on-month to $4.0 billion, with 6 companies issuing 9 bonds [16] - Notable issuances included a $1.6 billion senior unsecured note by China Aircraft Leasing and a zero-coupon convertible bond by ZTE Corporation [17]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday being oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the gold price. However, the market's risk appetite has recovered, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term trends being upward, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday being oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that overseas macro conditions have improved, China is approaching the peak season, and industry support has been enhanced [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price oscillated and adjusted yesterday. The market is still pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts within the year [3]. - **Core Logic**: Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the gold price. However, the recovery of the market's risk appetite has led to a continuous strong performance in the equity market, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold. Attention can be paid to the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [1][3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The intraday price of copper pulled up in the late session, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 - yuan mark, and it maintained an oscillatory operation at night [4]. - **Core Logic**: At the macro level, Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting significantly increased the market's risk appetite, which is beneficial to the copper price. At the industrial level, China is approaching the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing (Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Monday was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons compared to last Thursday), and industry support is gradually strengthening. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a strong operation, and attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark [4].

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.72%, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly a month, which negatively impacted gold prices [1] - COMEX gold futures closed down 0.23% at $3410.7 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) rose by 0.69%, with net inflows in 7 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 190 million [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 958.49 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts may have already been priced in, with a high probability of two rate cuts within the year [1] - A rebound in market risk appetite has led to a strong performance in equity markets, resulting in decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Continuous attention is advised on the $3400 level for gold, indicating a potential battle between bulls and bears [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is facing significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among its members [1][2][9] - The FOMC meeting minutes from July 29-30 reveal that most officials prioritize inflation risks over employment concerns, with only two dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [4][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][5] Group 2 - The political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump, is intensifying, with calls for the resignation of Fed officials who oppose his economic policies [1][9] - The Fed's decision-making environment is becoming more complex and politicized, although its independence is expected to remain intact in the short term [9][10] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen significantly, with an 82% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, despite the Fed's cautious stance on inflation [6][8]

Macroeconomic Overview - In July, US service sector activity unexpectedly cooled, with tariffs showing their impact, while prices accelerated and employment continued to shrink [1] - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July recorded 50.1%, below the expected 51.5% and the previous value of 50.8% [1] - The import index fell to 45.9%, down 5.8 percentage points from the previous value, becoming the largest drag on the index [1] - Factors contributing to the decline in imports include a stabilization of prior import demand and rising costs due to tariffs, leading companies to reduce imports to cut costs [1] - Price increases are accelerating, raising concerns about stagflation as employment continues to contract [1] Index Performance - For the week of August 4-8, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 0.55%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 3.73% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 2.43% [2] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 8 sectors saw gains, with Information Technology leading at 4.27% and Energy lagging at -0.98% [2] Investment Direction - US stocks rebounded last week, with the July ISM PMI falling short of expectations, fueling ongoing interest rate cut expectations following significant employment data shocks [3] - Approximately 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with 76% exceeding market expectations, compared to 73% in Q1, indicating relative economic stability in Q2 [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts have risen, with CME data showing an increase compared to the previous week, as the market anticipates cuts starting in September [3] - Concerns about recession have emerged following significant downward revisions to July non-farm data, while tariff uncertainties may lead to market volatility [3] - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture US stock growth [3]

美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）7月31日裁定将1公斤及100盎司金条纳入应税编码，相关关税已于当地 时间8月7日正式生效。此举将重创全球最大黄金精炼中心瑞士，此前美国已对瑞士商品加征39%关税， 按新规测算或将产生约240亿美元的额外关税成本。由于1公斤金条系COMEX核心交割品种，该政策将 直接推高实物交割成本并冲击期货市场流动性。 特朗普提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬米兰出任美联储理事至2026年1月31日，同时美联储理事沃 勒正逐渐成为美联储主席的热门人选，叠加博斯蒂克释放鸽派信号，多重人事变动与政策倾向调整推动 市场宽松预期升温，为贵金属价格提供货币层面的支撑。 摘要周五（8月8日），周四，随着特朗普提名临时美联储理事推升了市场的降息预期，美元指数盘中跳 水，最终收跌0.13%，报98.041。受特朗普关税生效引发避险情绪以及美元走软的提振，现货黄金升至 两周新高，一度站上3400美元大关，最终收涨0.8%，收报3396.31美元/盎司；现货白银最终收涨 0.15%，报38.26美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周五（8月8日），周四，随着特朗普提名临时美联储理事推升了市场的降息预期，美元指数盘中跳水， ...

Report Overview - The report is a gold weekly report covering the period from July 28, 2025, to August 3, 2025, analyzing the gold market's performance and influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US job market unexpectedly cooled, leading to a significant rebound in the outer - market gold price. The international gold price first declined and then rose, showing an overall obvious increase. This week, the gold price is expected to fluctuate upwards [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 1, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, down 0.85% from the previous week; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3416/ounce, up 2.41%. The gold T + D spot price closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, down 0.77%, and the London gold spot price closed at $3362.64/ounce, up 0.79% [5][8] 1.2 Gold Basis - On August 1, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $13.25/ounce, down $27.65 from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was - 0.26 yuan/gram, up 0.83 yuan from the previous week [9] 1.3 Gold Inner - Outer Disk Spread - The gold inner - outer disk spread fell significantly to - 17.48 yuan/gram. The gold - to - oil ratio decreased slightly, the gold - to - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - to - copper ratio rose significantly [12] 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. The global largest SPRD gold ETF fund holdings were 953.08 tons, down 4.01 tons. The domestic gold T + D cumulative trading volume decreased by 31.31%. In terms of futures positions, as of July 29, the net long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the SHFE gold inventory increased [16] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation for the third quarter exceeded $1 trillion. The US June JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, and the new hires decreased significantly. The US important housing price index fell for three consecutive months. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was better than expected, but the core PCE price index was higher than expected. Japan's central bank maintained the interest rate and raised the inflation forecast. The US July non - farm payrolls were far lower than expected [21][22][23][24][25][26][27] 2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - In July, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Powell cooled the market's expectation of a September rate cut. Some Fed officials believed the labor market was still stable, and inflation was the main concern [38][39][40] 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, with a slight increase of 1.04% to 97.67 [41] 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated downward, down 6bp to 1.90% [42] 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine situation were at a stalemate, which may increase market risk aversion [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is mainly weak with fluctuations. The main contract's operating range moves down due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the upcoming implementation of Sino - US tariffs, and the continuous inventory accumulation during the off - season. The variables are the inventory data in August and macro - stimulus situations [9] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2509 contract fluctuated and declined throughout the day, with small fluctuations during the day session and a negative close. The full - day trading volume was 145,300 lots, and the open interest was 248,613 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - There are 12 contracts for Shanghai Aluminum futures, with a total open interest of 591,031 lots, a decrease of 18,206 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract al2509 decreased by 12,750 lots, indicating capital outflows during the decline [4] 3.2 Spot Market - On July 31, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2509 strengthened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,590 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,510 yuan/ton, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Macro Information - Powell said that "it's too early to cut interest rates in September", causing the market's interest - rate cut expectation to drop from 64% to 46%. The US dollar index reached a two - month high, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The Politburo meeting's statement on "anti - involution" was milder than expected, and no super - expected stimulus signals were released, cooling market sentiment. The negotiation result of the suspension of Sino - US economic and trade tariffs expiring on August 1 has become a short - term key variable [7] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily price of the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract fell below the 20 - day moving average, with the support level at the 40 - day moving average. The MACD formed a death cross with an expanding green bar, the trading volume increased, and the price declined with capital outflows [8]

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 showed a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding the expected 2.4% and rebounding from a previous decline of -0.5% in Q1[2] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous quarter[2] Consumption and Trade - Personal consumption increased from a previous annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth[2] - Net exports improved significantly due to a sharp decline in imports, which fell from an annualized rate of 37.9% to -30.3%, raising the contribution to GDP from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a dramatic decline, with an annualized rate dropping from 23.8% in Q1 to -15.6% in Q2, negatively impacting GDP by 3.1 percentage points[2] - Residential investment continued to decline, with an annualized rate of -4.6% in Q2, reflecting ongoing pressures from high mortgage rates and immigration policies[2] Government Spending - Government spending rebounded to an annualized growth rate of 0.4% in Q2, driven primarily by increased defense spending and state/local government hiring[2] - State and local government expenditures rose from 2.0% in Q1 to 3.0% in Q2, indicating a positive trend in public sector investment[2] Market Reactions - Following the GDP release, market expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and bond yields, while gold prices fell[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved, reaching 61.8 in July, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[2]