周五亚洲盘面，黄金依旧守在 4080 美元附近，整体波动幅度有限。市场节奏仍围绕美联储 12 月会议展 开，而隔夜发布的美国就业数据显著超过预期，使原本快速聚集的降息预期明显回落。美元因此获得支 撑，黄金的反弹势头再次受阻。 最新公布的 9 月非农录得增加 11.9 万人，远超市场先前预估的 5 万人；与此同时，8 月就业数据被下修 为减少 4000 人，失业率也从 4.3% 升至 4.4%。由于政府停摆造成的延后统计，使得这份报告在发布时 间上更具突发性，投资者也因此重新审视美国劳动力市场的韧性与后续政策空间。 尽管利率预期重新转向令黄金承压，但下方的支撑力量依然稳固。避险资金在全球宏观风险未完全消散 的背景下持续流入，同时央行增持步伐并未放慢。数据显示，中国人民银行 9 月增持黄金 1.2 吨，并在 10 月实现连续第 12 个月增储。随着美国 PMI 初值及消费者信心指数将在晚间公布，市场情绪可能再 度切换，金价短线节奏将继续受数据牵引。 黄金目前在 4080—4100 区间内反复整理。更强劲的就业数据压缩了市场降息预期，而美联储内部持续 存在的分歧也限制了金价上行空间。不过，避险资金与央行持续增持为下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Since Tuesday this week, the gold price has rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold rebounded after falling below $4000 and reached the $4100 mark last night. Shanghai gold once rebounded above 940 last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in precious metals was mainly due to hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, which reduced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the downward revision of the interest - rate - cut expectation was largely due to the market's previous optimistic expectations, and its sustainability is not strong, and it will return to being data - driven. The market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market's sentiment of reduced interest - rate - cut expectation has been released, leading to short - term emotional repair [3]. - **Key Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data for September to be released on Thursday this week and subsequent economic data, which will directly affect the market's expectation of Fed policies and determine the short - term trend of precious metals [3]. - **Long - term Impact**: After the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of October, market risk appetite has increased. If there is significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the gold price may continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the $4000 mark below and the resistance at $4200 above [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper showed a slightly upward oscillation yesterday, and the main contract price stood above the 86,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the market has warmed up, precious metals have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metals have also shown a rebound trend. The short - term market sentiment towards the Fed's hawkish stance has been released, and the market may experience emotional repair. In the industry, spot trading has also improved [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the 86,000 mark [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, due to the Fed turning hawkish, the gold price has declined in the short - term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the downward revision of the interest - rate cut expectation may not be sustainable and subsequent economic data will be crucial for its short - term trend [1][3]. - For copper, although there is short - term volatility due to the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs, in the long - run, it is expected to be strong as macro - economic easing and supply contraction are likely to support the copper price [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: The New York gold hit the bottom and rebounded at the $4000 mark. The gold price is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term shock, and intraday shock - weak pattern [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a decline in the market's interest - rate cut expectation. As of November 18, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%, compared to over 70% in early November. The focus should be on the September US non - farm payroll data to be released this Thursday and subsequent economic data, which will determine the short - term trend of precious metals. Technically, the $4000 mark support should be monitored [3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The copper price rebounded last night. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once recovered the 86,000 mark and then declined, with a slight increase in open interest. It is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term strong, and intraday shock - strong pattern [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The market's expectation of a December 2025 interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%. The London copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction are expected to support the copper price. Technically, the long - short battle at the 86,000 mark should be monitored [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a downward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, causing the gold price to decline in the short term [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "strength", and "oscillation with an upward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic conditions are loose and there are mine - end production cuts. In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate, but in the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the gold price dropped significantly from its high, erasing all weekly gains. On Monday, it maintained a weak trend, with the New York gold price diving in the late trading and approaching the $4000 mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in the gold price is largely due to the Fed's hawkish turn. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December 2025 has dropped below 50%. Short - term gold price has fallen after a rise, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to take profits. Attention should be paid to the support at the $4000 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Overnight, the copper price continued its weak oscillation. The recent decline in the copper price is mainly due to the Fed's hawkish turn, which has reduced the market's rate - cut expectations. The London copper price is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure [4]. - **Driving Factors**: In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Affected by the short - selling of Nvidia and Palantir by the fund under Michael Burry, the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", the US stock AI sector plunged. Coupled with intensified concerns about high valuations, US stocks tumbled, and the Asia - Pacific market continued to decline generally. The A - share market's risk appetite was affected, opening lower today. The large - cap stock index was relatively resilient, rising before the morning close with a style switch between large and small - cap stocks. Except for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, all other indices closed higher at the afternoon close, with the TMT sector leading the decline throughout the day. In the three trading days this week, the intraday trend of stock indices rebounded, indicating strong support below, but lacking sufficient upward momentum. The trading volume of the two markets has been below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, showing a state of being supported but not rising. There are long - short differences in the current market, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The US ADP data to be released tonight is expected to influence the market's interest - rate cut expectations and thus have an impact on the stock index trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Composite 50, which slightly declined, all other stock indices closed higher. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed up 0.19%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 434.17 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with increasing volume, while other varieties rose with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government's "shutdown" will break the record. - The "Big Short" is short - selling 80% of his positions in Palantir and Nvidia, expressing a bearish view on the AI bubble [3] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | - 0.01 | 0.55 | 0.77 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.6616 | 5.312 | 14.7163 | 23.8684 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.1583 | 0.2586 | 0.3196 | 0.5106 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.004 | 9.6978 | 25.6435 | 36.6783 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.158 | 0.2204 | 0.4279 | 0.331 | [5] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite change (%) | 0.23 | | Shenzhen Component change (%) | 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18723.41 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 434.17 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been significant, with prices experiencing both sharp declines and rebounds, reflecting a volatile market sentiment [1] Price Movements - International gold prices surged over $4,000 per ounce before quickly retreating, with a notable increase of nearly $600 per ounce in the first two weeks of October, reaching a peak of $4,381 per ounce [1] - As of October 30, gold prices were fluctuating around $3,950 per ounce, indicating a substantial drop from the earlier highs [1] Market Sentiment - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to discussions among Asian central bank officials about the potential need to sell gold [1] - The market's reaction includes profit-taking behavior following the rapid price increase, which is seen as a normal market phenomenon [1] Economic Influences - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a reduction in market risk aversion, influenced by improved U.S.-China trade relations and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements have indicated that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed, which has cooled market expectations and contributed to the fluctuations in gold prices [1]

黄金价格近期出现高位跳水。国际金价突破4000美元大关后快速冲高回落，市场情绪也经历两极。30日 截至发稿，纽约黄金期货价格下挫，伦敦金现货却大幅上涨。金价连日上下剧烈波动，"黄金价格突然 暴跌"和"黄金价格突然反弹"同时站上热搜。 有亚洲央行官员近日表示，其国家或许应考虑抛售黄金。 目前，在菲律宾央行1090亿美元的国际储备总额中，黄金占比约为13%，高于亚洲多数国家的央行。 Diokno认为，理想的黄金储备比例应维持在8%至12%区间。 此外，现任菲律宾央行行长Eli Remolona在今年3月也曾表示，不看好黄金投资。 中国商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员周密对中新社国是直通车表示，从菲律宾央行当前的黄金储 备调整举措来看，其本质是外汇储备管理策略的具体体现。核心逻辑应是判断当前黄金价格已处于相对 高位，未来存在下行可能性，故而通过减持部分黄金以降低潜在风险敞口。 东方金诚研究发展部副总监瞿瑞接受采访时表示，近期菲律宾比索对美元汇率贬值，抛售黄金可快速补 充外汇储备，增强其干预汇市的能力。这种操作与1997年亚洲金融危机期间各国抛售黄金稳定汇率的逻 辑相似，但当前背景更侧重主动管理而非被动应对危机。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4% on October 29, marking the fifth rate cut since September of the previous year [1] - The Fed will stop its balance sheet reduction starting December 1, 2023, ceasing the reinvestment of maturing U.S. Treasury securities [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. government shutdown is impacting economic activity and that many consumers remain dissatisfied with inflation levels [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's hawkish remarks, U.S. stock markets experienced a slight decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.16% and the S&P 500 nearly flat, while the Nasdaq rose 0.55% [2] - Large tech stocks, such as Nvidia, saw gains, with Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion [2] - The dollar strengthened post-announcement, while gold prices fell below $3,950 [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the Fed's shift from tightening to a neutral stance may lead to 3-4 more rate cuts, but uncertainties remain due to data delays and leadership changes [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have been significantly adjusted, with short-term pressures on U.S. stocks and gold anticipated [3] - The overall liquidity in the U.S. market is expected to remain accommodative, supporting asset prices, despite potential challenges in the employment market and inflation levels [3]

Core Insights - The recent inflation data has been described as a "timely rain" that alleviates market anxiety and supports the prevailing expectation of moderate inflation [1][2] - The current issues in the job market explain the Federal Reserve's commitment to its existing policy path [1][2] - Market expectations for two additional interest rate cuts this year have risen to 88%, which has led to a nearly 0.7% increase in S&P 500 futures [1][2] - Overall, this data has injected new momentum into the market's upward trend, although a significant deviation from expectations could trigger sell-offs [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent inflation data has alleviated market anxiety and confirmed the general expectation of moderate inflation, providing new momentum for market gains [1] Market Reaction - The probability of two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year has risen to 88%, driven by the current economic conditions [1] - The S&P 500 futures surged nearly 0.7% as a result of the favorable data, indicating a positive market response [1] Employment Market - Ongoing issues in the employment market explain the Federal Reserve's commitment to its current policy path, highlighting the importance of labor market conditions in monetary policy decisions [1]