Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, but the prices of finished products have slightly declined. In the short term, with the stimulation of eliminating excess production capacity on the supply side and the support of large - scale infrastructure on the demand side, and the current low inventory level, the futures market is expected to continue to strengthen. The significant increase in coal prices also provides good support for the prices of finished products. The market still needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the fundamental direction is still downward, with excess industrial pattern, marginal weakening of future demand, and potential downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations of the futures market. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in the speculative aspect and pay attention to price - fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [10]. - For industrial silicon, it still faces problems of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations. It is recommended that the speculative side rationally treat the current market, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies, and with continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures price may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [17]. - For soda ash, in the short term, driven by market sentiment and the rising coal - chemical sector, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the upward space is limited [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3274 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 0.99%) from the previous trading day, with 86534 tons of registered warehouse receipts (no change from the previous day) and a position of 1.922698 million lots, down 101,809 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3438 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (- 1.12%), with 58951 tons of registered warehouse receipts, down 598 tons, and a position of 1.495321 million lots, down 87,124 lots. The Shanghai aggregated price of hot - rolled coils decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. The inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest levels in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.34% (- 11.00), and the position changed by - 39,963 lots to 579,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.0489 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 26.94 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.21% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased month - on - month. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to port maintenance, while those from Brazil and non - mainstream countries increased, with Brazil contributing the main increment. The near - end arrivals decreased month - on - month. The average daily hot - metal output was 242.44 tons, up 2.63 tons. Port inventories slightly increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventories were consumed [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 1.23% at 5938 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5860 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of 112 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.72% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a discount of 82 yuan/ton to the futures [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamental direction is downward, with an excess industrial pattern, marginal weakening of future demand, and potential downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 1.35% at 9525 yuan/ton. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 225 yuan/ton over the futures; the 421 was 10250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton, with a discount of 75 yuan/ton to the futures [13]. - **Fundamentals**: It still faces problems of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes (- 3.22%) month - on - month and up 0.29% year - on - year. In the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies, and in the long term, it depends on real - estate policies and supply - side contraction [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1320 yuan, down 40 yuan. As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers was 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons (- 1.12%). In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists [18].