Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on soybean futures, focusing on the market trends, fundamental analysis, and future outlook of soybeans in July 2025 [3][9]. Market Trends Domestic Market - In July, the domestic soybean meal futures (Lianbo) showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main 09 contract closed up 1.32% for the month [3][9]. International Market - The external CBOT soybean futures showed a weak trend, closing down 3.63% in July. The favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the promising prospect of a bumper harvest were the main reasons for the pressure on both domestic and international markets [3][9]. Differentiation - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the domestic and international markets showed differentiation, with the domestic Lianbo being more resilient than the external US soybeans [3][9]. Fundamental Analysis Global Situation - In the 25/26 season, US soybeans are in the growing stage. The planting progress is relatively fast, and there are currently no opportunities for weather - related speculation. As of the week of July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 67% in the same period last year, and the currently predicted yield of 52.5 bushels per acre is the highest in history [11]. - According to USDA planting area data, the planting area this year is 83.4 million acres, a 4% decrease from 87.05 million acres last year. Due to the reduction in the planting area, the USDA predicts that the US soybean production this year may decrease by 860,000 tons year - on - year [11]. - The USDA's adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit this year is expected to start from the August supply - demand report. Weather is the main factor affecting the yield. Currently in the weather - speculation window period, the rainfall in the growing areas may decrease in the next two weeks, so continuous tracking of the weather changes in the growing areas is needed [11]. Chinese Market - From January to June 2025, the cumulative arrival of imported soybeans in China was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase compared with the same period last year. Due to the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, the soybean imports in May and June increased significantly. According to Mysteel data, the expected arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is 10.6925 million tons and 7.6 million tons respectively, and the overall supply is still abundant [2][15]. - On the demand side, as of August 1, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 8.05 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The operating rate of domestic oil mills remained at a high level, the inventory pressure continued to increase, and oil mills generally urged customers to pick up goods. However, the downstream demand has slightly improved, the amount of soybean meal used by feed enterprises has increased moderately, the inventory digestion has accelerated, and the inventory shows a downward trend [2][15]. Future Outlook - Currently, the domestic spot market is still digesting the pressure of the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, while the futures market mainly trades US soybeans. This year, the US soybean planting progress is fast, and there are no opportunities for weather - related speculation for now. The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, compared with 68% in the same period last year. At present, a bumper harvest of US soybeans is expected, but due to tariff policies, the uncertainty of importing US soybeans still exists [2][19]. - Under the pressure of global supply abundance, the CBOT soybean futures fell below the 1000 mark last month. Considering cost support, it is expected that there may still be fluctuations around the integer mark in the short term. The domestic Lianbo is relatively more resilient than the external market and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be focused on the guidance of the USDA's August forecast data on the US soybean yield per unit [2][19].