Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton maintains a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual planting areas in April, especially the release of the U.S. cotton planting area tonight, as there is an expected tightening of supply in the new quarter [1] - The bottom - building trend of sugar is becoming clearer, and it may continue to fluctuate upward after experiencing the stage of maximum inventory pressure in the short - term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - StoneX keeps the estimate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production at 3.74 million tons, but caution is needed due to weather and growth conditions, especially in Mato Grosso where cotton is in the early growth stage and April rainfall will affect yield [1] - Trump's visit to China is scheduled for May 14 - 15, which is expected to stabilize Sino - U.S. trade and may lead to tariff cuts and U.S. cotton purchases [1] Sugar - From March 27 to 30, 10 sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - pressing process. As of March 30, 38 sugar mills in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi have completed the process, with a total daily sugar - cane pressing capacity of 352,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 234,500 tons [2] - The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,388 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,586 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,262 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 64 yuan/ton [2] - With the strengthening of the outer - market raw sugar and the weakening of the inner - market, the price difference between the inside and outside is narrowing, and the downward space of sugar is expected to shrink [2]

Group 1: Cotton - The intention to plant cotton in 2026 has decreased, mainly due to the policy adjustment plan in Xinjiang, China's major cotton - producing area. The non - suitable cotton areas, areas with severe groundwater over - exploitation, newly reclaimed wasteland cotton areas, and low - yield and inefficient cotton areas will be reduced. The preliminary survey shows that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 may decline by 3% - 5% year - on - year [1] - Trump's visit to China is scheduled for May 14 - 15, 2026, which stabilizes Sino - US trade and there is an expectation of tariff reduction and US cotton purchase [1] - In the short term, cotton remains in a relatively strong oscillating trend. Pay attention to the final planting area of various countries in April [1] Group 2: Sugar - As of the first half of March in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.25 million tons, an increase of 282,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative cane crushing volume was 603.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 million tons (2.21%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%) compared to the same period last year [2] - The estimated cost of processing and paying duties for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,431 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,643 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processing and paying duties for Brazilian sugar within the quota compared to the spot price of Rizhao white sugar is 1,219 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 7 yuan/ton [2] - The rise of the outer - market raw sugar has narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, raw sugar is gradually emerging from the trough. With the narrowing of import profits, it is estimated that the downward space for white sugar is gradually shrinking, and the bottom - building market is becoming clearer, with a possible subsequent oscillating upward trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is expected to be generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated sideways, with a weekly decline of 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel. US soybean oil prices rose, while US soybean meal prices fell [1]. - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 67.7%, slower than 76.1% in the same period last year but slightly faster than the five - year average. Future weather in Brazil and Argentina is generally favorable for soybean growth and harvest [2]. 3.2 Market Concerns - The situation of mutual visits between Chinese and US leaders: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, but if the Middle East situation eases, another visit is expected [3]. - The transmission of rising crude oil prices to planting: It will directly increase the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. If all prices increase by 30%, the cost of US soybeans will increase by about 70 cents, and that of Brazilian soybeans will increase by 102 cents. Higher fertilizer prices may also prompt some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans [3]. - The release rhythm of South American supply pressure: As the harvest in Brazil accelerates and precipitation in Argentina improves, the supply pressure of spot soybeans will increase [3]. 3.3 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - **Overall view**: There is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. - **Short - side logic**: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy may weaken; the harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the shipping speed has basically returned to normal, resulting in high global spot pressure; the weather in Argentina has improved, and the previously damaged yield per unit area is expected to recover [5]. - **Long - side logic**: If Trump visits China, China is expected to purchase an additional 8 million tons of soybeans in the current crop year; the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean consumption; rising crude oil prices support costs [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Prices - As of March 27, 2026, the price of the continuous US soybean futures contract fell 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel; the continuous US soybean meal futures contract fell 12.7 dollars per short ton to 315.3 dollars per short ton; the continuous US soybean oil futures contract rose 1.9 cents per pound to 67.41 cents per pound [5]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 3.25 cents per bushel to 1166.25 cents per bushel compared with the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 8.75 cents per bushel to 1240.75 cents per bushel compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 2.62 reais per bag to 103.37 reais per bag compared with the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port rose 0.63 reais per bag to 130.01 reais per bag compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 25, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for May shipment rose 6 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton; the price for June shipment rose 4 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton [6]. 3.5 Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - In Brazil, precipitation in the next week will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions, with slightly less precipitation in the central and southern regions. In the next two weeks, precipitation will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions. Overall, the precipitation in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean harvest and transportation [20]. - In Argentina, precipitation in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba regions in the next two weeks will be good for soybean growth, while precipitation in the central and northern regions will be slightly less. Overall, the weather for the final growth of soybeans is acceptable, and the average yield per unit area is expected to recover to some extent [20]. 3.6 US Soybean Demand - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.3442 million tons, compared with 0.9065 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the current crop year were 0.6689 million tons, compared with 0.2982 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 27,000 tons, compared with 6,600 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 0.6649 million tons, compared with 0.5458 million tons in the previous week. Of the 12 million tons of US soybeans purchased by China, 8.5241 million tons have been shipped, and 3.47 million tons remain unshipped [39]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume in the US in February was 208.78 million bushels, the highest level for the same period in history, indicating strong domestic demand [39]. 3.7 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - As of March 25, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 203,200 contracts, a decrease of 10,500 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 117,100 contracts, a decrease of 1,200 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 107,900 contracts, an increase of 24,000 contracts from the previous week [44]. - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared with the previous year. Before the rise in crude oil prices, the estimated planting cost in the US was 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and in Brazil, it was 950 - 1000 cents per bushel. If calculated based on the current energy cost, it is expected to increase by 5 - 10% on this basis [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **For Bean Meal (M2605)**: It will oscillate between 2920 and 2980. The U.S. soybeans are narrowly fluctuating, and the domestic bean meal has bottomed out and rebounded. In the short - term, it has entered a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, affected by the U.S. soybean trend and the short - term easing of the Middle East conflict [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It will fluctuate between 4540 and 4640. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling back, but the short - term good demand supports the market, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is in a short - term strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvesting and Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory in oil mills remains at a relatively high level in March. The bean meal has returned to range oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal in March remains low, suppressing the price expectation of bean meal [13]. - The bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by the possible weather speculation in South American soybean producing areas and the preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations, the bean meal is short - term oscillating and slightly stronger, waiting for further clarification on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Bean Meal - **Likely to Rise**: The preliminary Sino - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather of South American soybean producing areas [14]. - **Likely to Fall**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; with the progress of Brazilian soybean harvesting, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. Soybeans - **Likely to Rise**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. - **Likely to Fall**: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China increases the purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3180, with a basis of 228, showing a premium over the futures. The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 67.05 tons, a 6.89% increase compared to last week and a 10.5% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4740, with a basis of 113, showing a premium over the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 511.57 tons, a 6.75% decrease compared to last week and a 103.17% increase year - on - year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 17.97% - 23.05% [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and total supply also showed an upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 18.41% - 33.01% [33]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **For Bean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The market is currently in a slightly bullish oscillating pattern, influenced by factors such as the movement of US soybeans, the potential of the Sino - US trade agreement, and the situation in the Middle East. The decrease in oil - mill bean meal inventory and the price above the 20 - day moving average are positive factors, while the reduction of long - position by the main players and capital outflow are negative factors [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 4740 and 4840. The market is in a high - level oscillating state, affected by US soybean trends, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the situation in the Middle East. The positive factors include the spot price premium over futures and the price above the 20 - day moving average, while the increase in main short - positions, capital outflow, and potential new - season domestic soybean production increase are negative factors [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US market is in a slightly bullish oscillating state, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills remains relatively high in March. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and bean meal has returned to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profit leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, and the demand for bean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation. The influence of US soybeans and weak demand for bean meal interact [13]. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains relatively high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. Bean meal is in a slightly bullish oscillating state in the short term, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, the determination of South American soybean production, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains relatively high in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From March 12 to March 20, the transaction average price of bean meal fluctuated between 3368 and 3420, and the transaction volume ranged from 9.75 to 29.04 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 and 2620, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with only a small amount on a few days. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal ranged from 800 to 956 [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From March 13 to March 20, the futures prices of soybeans (both bean one and bean two) and bean meal fluctuated. The spot price of bean one remained at 4840, and the spot price of bean meal was mostly 3300 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From March 11 to March 20, the bean one warehouse receipts decreased from 24618 to 22047, the bean two warehouse receipts were mostly 200 - 300, and the bean meal warehouse receipts decreased from 36982 to 36685 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. over the years. For example, in the global balance sheet, the production has been increasing in recent years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated between 17.97% and 23.05%. In the domestic balance sheet, the import volume has been relatively large, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the United States, and Brazil in different years are provided. For example, in the 2024/25 season, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvest progress reached 76.4% on March 23 [34][35][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show the changes in planting area, yield, production, and other indicators of US soybeans. For example, the production in January 2026 was 42.62 billion bushels [44]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to concerns about exports and a drop in US soybean prices, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal may be weak; with the decline in international soybean prices, the DCE soybean futures may adjust [1] - On March 16, CBOT soybean futures closed sharply lower, hitting the biggest single - day decline since 2023, with the May and July contracts hitting the limit - down, as the possible delay of the Sino - US leaders' meeting dampened market optimism about increased US soybean exports to China [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4956 yuan/ton during the day session, up 24 (+0.49%), and 4908 yuan/ton at night, down 26 (-0.53%) - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 3071 yuan/ton during the day session, down 61 (-1.95%), and 3032 yuan/ton at night, down 51 (-1.65%) - CBOT soybean 05 closed at 1155.25 cents/bushel, down 68.5 (-5.6%) - CBOT soybean meal 05 closed at 312.5 dollars/short ton, down 9.7 (-3.01%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months and delivery times - In East China, the spot price of soybean meal had different basis levels and price changes compared to the previous day - In South China, the spot price of soybean meal also had different basis levels and price changes compared to the previous day - In the Northeast production area, the net purchase price of soybeans in Harbin, Wuchang, Shangzhi, Binxian, and Bayan was 4840 yuan/ton (previous trading day) [1] Main Industry Data - The daily trading volume of soybean meal was 17.5 tons (previous trading day), compared to 6.55 tons two days ago - The weekly inventory of soybean meal was 73.52 tons (previous trading day) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 16, CBOT soybean futures closed sharply lower. The possible delay of the Sino - US leaders' meeting dampened market optimism about increased US soybean exports to China. Trump said he might postpone the summit to pressure China to help lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. If the summit is postponed, the trade agreement will also be delayed, and there is a risk of the agreement breaking down. China still adheres to the commitment to increase the purchase of US soybeans. Brazil is adjusting the inspection and quarantine requirements for soybeans exported to China, and as of March 12, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 61%, lower than 70% in the same period last year [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is - 1; the trend intensity of soybeans is - 1, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the overnight limit - down of US soybeans with a nearly 6% single - day drop, the domestic soybean complex did not follow the sharp decline. The price of domestic soybean futures is expected to remain strong, while the price of soybean meal futures will fluctuate more due to market sentiment, and a strategy of buying low and selling high is recommended [4][6] 3. Summary of Each Section Market Performance - Overnight, US soybeans hit the limit - down, dropping nearly 6% in a single day. The domestic soybean complex did not follow the sharp decline. The main soybean contract first fell and then rebounded in the morning session, with a slight decline, and the decline of the main soybean meal contract narrowed to around 1%. This week, the main soybean 2605 contract hit a new two - year high, and the main soybean meal 2605 contract also touched a recent high but then adjusted downward. Both spot prices continued to rise [4] Supply - side Factors - **Domestic Soybean Inventory**: As of March 13, the remaining domestic soybean inventory continued to decline. The remaining grain ratios in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong decreased month - on - month, but the national remaining grain ratio was higher than the same period last year. There was no state - reserve soybean auction [4] - **Soybean Arrival at Oil Mills**: Due to the US - Iran conflict and the possible postponement of Trump's visit to China, the arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills decreased, and the port soybean inventory also declined. As of March 13, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.684 million tons, and the port soybean inventory was 5.489 million tons, both showing month - on - month decreases [5] - **US Soybean Situation**: After continuous increases, US soybeans experienced a sharp decline. The reasons included the deadlock in the US - Iran conflict, the possible postponement of Trump's visit to China, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade. The expected increase in the planting area of new US soybeans was also a concern, with the previous estimate from the US Agricultural Outlook Forum being 85 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%) [5] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: The operating rate of oil mills recovered, and the soybean meal inventory decreased. As of March 13, the operating rate of oil mills was 54.23%, showing a month - on - month increase. The oil mill soybean inventory was 5.486 million tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. The soybean meal production was 1.556 million tons, the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 627,000 tons, and the unfulfilled soybean meal contracts were 3.889 million tons, all showing month - on - month decreases [5][6] Demand - side Factors - The feed demand is currently strong due to high livestock and poultry inventories. However, in the pig - breeding industry, pig prices continued to fall, and breeding losses widened. In the poultry - breeding industry, egg prices declined, and breeding losses also increased. Although the current high inventory supports feed demand, long - term capacity reduction may occur due to losses, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [6] Market Outlook - The sales of domestic soybeans are slow at high prices, and the remaining inventory continues to decline. The market price remains strong, and it is expected that the soybean price trend will continue to be strong. The uncertainty of Trump's visit to China increases, the arrival of domestic soybeans decreases, there is no auction, the operating rate of oil mills recovers, and the soybean meal inventory decreases. Market sentiment will dominate, and soybean meal prices will fluctuate more. A strategy of buying low and selling high is recommended [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: South America is expected to have stable and high - yield soybeans, with Brazil's overall high - yield outlook unchanged despite some harvest issues, and Argentina's yield may slightly decrease. The US may increase its soybean planting area in 2026. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively large [7][63][65]. - Demand side: After the high - volume trading of soybean meal in January, the spot market was relatively quiet in February. Future demand depends on the auction of imported soybeans. Terminal demand is relatively stable in the short - to - medium term [7][64][65]. - Outlook: The 05 basis in March may first be stable and then strengthen. The external CBOT soybean may fluctuate at a high level in March. Domestic soybean meal may rise slightly in the short - to - medium term but will face pressure after mid - April when Brazilian soybeans arrive in large quantities [7][64][65]. - Strategy: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be stable first and then strengthen in March. Futures speculators can hold a slightly bullish view in the short - to - medium term and pay attention to key variables [7][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Upstream: Planting and Export 3.1.1 Soybean Supply - Yield and inventory: The USDA's January report finalized the 2025 US soybean production. The new - season US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026. The USDA estimates Brazil's soybean yield in the next season to be 1.8 billion tons and Argentina's to be 48.5 million tons [9]. - Growth progress and quality: Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing, but the overall progress is slow. Argentina has completed sowing, and the crop rating and moisture conditions have changed [10]. - Weather: Brazil is in the harvest peak, and the overall yield is expected to be high. Argentina's rainfall during the holiday has relieved some growth pressure [11]. 3.1.2 Exports of Major Producing Countries - Brazil: The USDA expects Brazil to export 114 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, with good export prospects. In January, Brazil exported 2.017 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 75.1% [20][21]. - US: The USDA expects the US to export 42.86 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of about 16%. The current sales situation is poor, and future exports depend on China's additional purchases [22][26]. 3.2 Midstream: China's Soybean Import and Pressing 3.2.1 China's Soybean Import - Import volume: In December 2025, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans. The 2025/26 season (starting from October) cumulative import volume as of December was 25.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. It is expected to set a new record in 2026 [35][36]. - Buying and arrival: As of late February, the buying volume in February was 10.518 million tons, and the arrival volume will seasonally decrease, and the port soybean inventory will decline until mid - April [36]. 3.2.2 China's Soybean Pressing and Inventory - Pressing profit: In February, the external CBOT soybean was strong, while the domestic market was relatively weak, and the pressing profit was slightly weak [46]. - Pressing volume and operating rate: As of the week of February 20, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 0.98%, and the actual pressing volume was 30,200 tons. It is expected to recover to a relatively low level after the Spring Festival [46]. - Soybean inventory: As of February 20, the national major oil mills' soybean commercial inventory was 4.9204 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week. The inventory will enter a destocking stage [47]. 3.3 Downstream: Feed and Livestock Farming 3.3.1 Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory - Inventory: As of February 20, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 772,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 73%. The spot market was quiet in February, and future demand depends on soybean auctions [53]. 3.3.2 Pig Farming - Profit: As of February 27, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 159.65 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was 20.83 yuan/head [57]. - Feed production: In 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 8.6% year - on - year. Pig feed production increased significantly. The proportion of soybean meal in feed remained the same, and the use of miscellaneous meals increased [58]. 3.3.3 Poultry Farming - Broilers: At the end of February, the price of white - feather broilers was 7.53 yuan/kg, slightly weak. The market supply is sufficient, and the price may continue to decline [61]. - Laying hens: In February, the breeding profit was in a seasonal decline. The laying hen inventory increased slightly at the end of February but is expected to decline in the first half of the year [62]. 3.4 Later Outlook and Strategy - Supply side: South American soybeans are expected to be high - yield, and the US may increase its planting area. The overall supply pressure is large [7][63][65]. - Demand side: The spot market was quiet in February, and future demand depends on soybean auctions. Terminal demand is stable in the short - to - medium term [7][64][65]. - Outlook: The 05 basis in March may first be stable and then strengthen. The external CBOT soybean may fluctuate at a high level in March. Domestic soybean meal may rise slightly in the short - to - medium term but will face pressure after mid - April [7][64][65]. - Strategy: Spot merchants can expect the basis to be stable first and then strengthen in March. Futures speculators can hold a slightly bullish view in the short - to - medium term and pay attention to key variables [7][66]. - Key variables: The frequency and quantity of imported soybean auctions, Brazil's harvest and shipping situation, and Trump's visit to China [7][67].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - Next week (03.02 - 03.06), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybeans are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. For soybean meal, the prices of US soybean futures and Brazilian premium quotes on the cost side are stable with a slight upward trend. For soybeans, attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations, such as policy sentiment and rumors about state and local reserves. In addition, the geopolitical events in the Middle East during the weekend may affect market sentiment [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section US Soybean Futures Prices - Last week (02.23 - 02.27), US soybean futures prices rose slightly. Bullish factors included the easing of US tariff policies and the strong performance of US soybean oil. Bearish factors included the uncertainty of US tariff policies and market concerns about China's demand for US soybeans. As of February 27, the weekly increase of the main US soybean 05 contract was 1.41%, and the weekly increase of the main US soybean meal 05 contract was 1.85% [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures Prices - Last week (02.24 - 02.27), domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up." For soybean meal, on the one hand, the prices of US soybeans and Brazilian premiums were stable with a slight upward trend, providing cost support. On the other hand, there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade events. For soybeans, the spot prices in the Northeast production area increased, and the futures prices were still strong, affected by the overall sentiment of the soybean market and without bearish factors. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of February 27, the weekly increase of the main soybean meal m2605 contract was 1.18%, and the weekly increase of the main soybean a2605 contract was 0.73% [3]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **US soybean net sales**: In the week of February 19, 2026, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The weekly net sales of the current season (2025/26) and the next season (2026/27) also decreased. The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were about 7.5 million tons (about 42 million tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 1.066 billion tons [3]. - **Brazilian soybean import cost**: As of the week of February 28, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in May 2026 decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [3]. - **Brazilian soybean harvest progress**: As of the week of February 19, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 30%, lower than 39% in the same period last year, the lowest level since the 2020/21 season. The reasons included late sowing, long growth cycle, and rainfall during the harvest period. In Rio Grande do Sul, although the rainfall was beneficial to crop growth, the uneven distribution of rainfall still posed a risk of poor harvest [3]. - **South American soybean main - producing area weather forecast**: According to the February 28 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (March 1 - March 15), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean main - producing areas was uneven and the temperature was high. The precipitation in the Argentine soybean main - producing areas was slightly less, and the temperature was slightly high or basically normal except for being low around March 6. Overall, the weather in South American production areas had a slightly positive impact, and attention should be paid to future weather changes [4]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of February 27, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 44,000 tons, compared with about 30,000 tons in the week before the Spring Festival [5]. - **Pick - up volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of February 27, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 107,000 tons, compared with about 115,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of February 27, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 275 yuan/ton, compared with about 306 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 705 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of February 13, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 770,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 2% and a year - on - year increase of about 73% [5]. - **Crushing volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to continue to increase next week. As of the week of February 27, the weekly soybean crushing volume was about 590,000 tons (40,000 tons in the previous week and 1.98 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 16% (1% in the previous week and 56% in the same period last year). Next week (February 28 - March 6), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.89 million tons (1.52 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate will be 52% (43% in the same period last year) [5]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market - **Soybean prices**: The soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans increased by 160 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the inland areas, the purchase price remained the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - **Northeast production area**: The spot prices in the Northeast production area increased, but the trading volume was small. Farmers were expected to sell their grains after the Lantern Festival. After the Spring Festival, most traders resumed business, but the market feedback was not ideal, and the new trading volume was small. Farmers were reluctant to sell and asked for higher prices [6]. - **Sales areas**: The sales areas adjusted prices following the production areas, but the trading volume was limited. After the Spring Festival, dealers in the market resumed business, and the selling price of Northeast soybeans was adjusted according to the origin and arrival cost. However, the downstream market was not active in purchasing, and the trading was slow. The price increase in the market was smaller than that in the production area. The resumption time of soybean product factories was inconsistent, and the raw material inventory purchased before the Spring Festival had not been consumed. The centralized opening of schools in March may boost the demand for soybean products [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. For soybean meal, the cost - side US soybean futures prices and Brazilian soybean premium quotes are stable with a slight upward trend. For soybeans, attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations such as policy sentiment (Two Sessions) and rumors of state reserve sales. Additionally, geopolitical events in the Middle East during the weekend may affect market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents US Soybean Market - Last week (February 23 - February 27, 2026), US soybean futures prices rose slightly. Bullish factors included the easing of US tariff policies and the strong performance of US soybean oil. Bearish factors were the uncertainty of US tariff policies and concerns about China's demand for US soybeans. As of February 27, the weekly increase of the main US soybean May contract was 1.41%, and that of the main US soybean meal May contract was 1.85% [2]. - In the week of February 19, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased month - on - month. The export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 810,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of about 16%. The cumulative export shipments were about 25.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 32%. The weekly net sales in the current season (2025/26) were about 410,000 tons, and in the next season (2026/27) were 0 tons, with a total of about 410,000 tons (compared to about 866,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales to China in the current crop year were about 75,000 tons, and the cumulative sales were about 10.66 million tons [3]. Brazilian Soybean Market - As of the week of February 28, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, while the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [3]. - As of the week of February 19, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 30%, compared to 39% in the same period last year, the lowest level since the 2020/21 season. Reasons included late sowing, long crop growth cycles, and rainfall during the harvest period. In Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall was uneven, and the soybean harvest still faced the risk of poor yields [3]. - According to the February 28 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (March 1 - March 15, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil was uneven and the temperature was high. The precipitation in Mato Grosso was normal, while that in other main producing areas was low. In Argentina, the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas was slightly low, and the temperature was slightly high or normal except for a low - temperature period around March 6. The current weather impact on South American production areas was slightly bullish [5]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean meal futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The cost - side support came from the stable and slightly upward trend of US soybeans and Brazilian premiums, while the uncertainty of Sino - US trade events caused disturbances. The weekly increase of the main soybean meal May contract was 1.18% [3]. - The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly, and the spot trading, crushing, etc. rebounded slightly after the Spring Festival holiday. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills was about 44,000 tons, an increase from the pre - holiday week. The average daily pickup volume of main oil mills decreased to about 107,000 tons from the previous week. The average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased to about 275 yuan/ton from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, reaching about 770,000 tons. The weekly soybean crushing volume of 125 oil mills increased to about 590,000 tons, and the operating rate increased to about 16%. It is expected to reach about 1.89 million tons next week, with an operating rate of 52% [6]. Domestic Soybean Market - Last week (February 24 - February 27, 2026), domestic soybean futures prices "first fell and then rose, with the center of gravity moving up". The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. The futures price remained strong due to the overall sentiment of the soybean market and the absence of bearish factors. The weekly increase of the main soybean May contract was 0.73% [3]. - The domestic soybean spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast regions increased by 160 yuan/ton, that in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week, and the selling price in the sales areas increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price in the Northeast increased in compensation, but the trading volume was small. Farmers were expected to sell their grain after the Lantern Festival. The sales areas adjusted prices following the production areas, but the trading volume was limited. The resumption time of soybean product factories was inconsistent, and the raw material inventory purchased before the Spring Festival had not been consumed. The centralized start of schools in March may boost the demand for soybean products [7].