中美之间的关税战在休战协议达成后似乎没有平息，特朗普似乎依然心有不甘，近日他甚至公然表示，美国是在"养活"中国的解放军，认为美方应该向中国 施压，要求中方"报恩"，并且建议美财长给中国打电话，催促中国加速购买美国农产品。 在中美达成关税休战共识后，特朗普的言论显然让人感到不安。虽然两国达成了协议，但美方的做法却不断扰乱这一暂时的平静。首先，美国批准了特朗普 政府上台以来的首笔对台军售，这违背了美国曾作出的关于台湾的承诺，再次表现出对中国的背叛。台湾问题一直是中美关系中的底线，而这一举动无疑破 坏了两国之间脆弱的互信。 更令人惊讶的是，特朗普近日再次口出狂言，声称中国通过中美贸易收入建立了强大的军事力量，并表示是美国出资7220亿美元"养活"了解放军。紧接着， 特朗普要求美财长立即与中国联系，催促中方加快购买美国的农产品。特朗普的言论虽然看似荒唐，但实际上透露了一个明确的信息：他希望通过挑起关税 战，阻止解放军的进一步发展，防止美军被超越，并且借此机会宣扬自己是美国的"安全保护者"。 其次，尽管中国商务部已经暂停实施10月份计划中的稀土出口管制，美国却未因此收手，反而要求中国与美国签署稀土协议，否则将面临报复措 ...

来源：市场资讯 相关知情人士透露，中粮集团已采购至少 84 万吨美豆，计划于 12 月至次年 1 月装运。 其中一位交易员表示，其中八艘船将于 12 月至次年 1 月从美国墨西哥湾沿岸港口码头装运，其余船只则定于次年 1 月从美国西北部太平 洋沿岸港口启运。另一位交易员则估计，销售的大豆中约有 75%将从墨西哥湾沿岸港口装运，其余部分则从美国西北部沿岸港口发运。 （来源：海运经纪） 美方周五表示，大豆销售将在春季按计划推进。 两位知情交易员称，中国周一至少采购了 14 船美国大豆，这是自今年 1 月以来最大规模的采购，也是 10 月中美会晤后最重要的采购。 两位驻亚洲的交易员表示，尽管这些货物的价格高于竞争对手巴西的报价，但中国仍在购买美国大豆，以履行在韩国会晤期间向美方作 出的承诺。 交易员们表示，若更多交易最终敲定，销售总量可能更大。 白宫表示，中方今年将购买 1200 万吨美国大豆，但截至周一仅完成少量交易。美国政府数据显示，中国去年进口了近 2700 万吨美国大 豆。 亚洲交易员们估计，中粮集团从墨西哥湾港口装运的大豆价格比 1 月芝加哥合约高出每蒲式耳 2.35-2.40 美元，从美国西北部港口装运 ...

BREAKING: Nvidia Drives Futures Higher Temu parent company PDD Holdings (PDD) posted third-quarter revenue slightly below estimates, as the Chinese e-commerce company said it is facing stepped up competition. U.S.-listed PDD stock s trading despite posting earnings that beat Wall Street forecast. PDD said in a news release early Tuesday that it earned an adjusted 21.08 yuan per American depositary share for the September-ended quarter,… Related news Get instant access to exclusive stock lists, expert market ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around China's halt in large-scale soybean purchases from the U.S., which contrasts with the U.S. government's expectations of a $120 billion procurement commitment [1] - China's agricultural imports have diversified, with private enterprises increasing their share, indicating that state-owned enterprises cannot fulfill the large orders anticipated by the U.S. [5] - The U.S. soybean industry is facing internal challenges, including surplus inventory and rising production costs, which complicate the market dynamics [3] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean import tariff of 13% significantly hampers competitiveness compared to Brazilian soybeans, which are 10% cheaper [1] - Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach approximately 4 million tons by the end of 2025, providing China with leverage in negotiations [1] - The U.S. agricultural sector is concerned about the political volatility affecting trade agreements, as seen in the uncertainty faced by farmers regarding whether to store or sell their soybeans [3][5] Group 3 - China's procurement strategy appears to focus on risk diversification rather than reliance on a single source, reflecting a cautious approach in the face of geopolitical tensions [1] - The U.S. soybean association expresses hope that agricultural trade will not be politicized, highlighting the industry's frustration with the current trade environment [5] - China's response to the U.S. trade policies suggests that cooperation is contingent upon the removal of high tariffs, indicating a need for a more balanced trade relationship [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, stock index futures may face tests and show volatile trends, while bond futures are affected by financial data. In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. In the black metals and non - ferrous metals markets, prices are influenced by factors such as raw material costs, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [17][26][60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, the market rose strongly and reached a new high. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the total market value of the two markets reached a new high. However, overnight US stocks fell sharply, and the index will face another test and may show a volatile trend [19][20][21]. - Trading strategy: Adopt high - selling and low - buying for single - side trading; conduct IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use bullish spread options when the price is low [21]. Bond Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's open - market net injection of short - term liquidity made the market capital more relaxed. The release of October financial data showed that credit expansion slowed down, but the probability of monetary policy intensification was not high [22][23][25]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading; hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) and try to go long on the T contract's current - quarter to next - quarter inter - period spread [25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market situation: The CBOT soybean index rose. The trade relationship is still favorable, but the domestic soybean meal crushing profit is in a significant loss, and the supply has great uncertainty. The rapeseed meal market changes little and is expected to fluctuate [27][28]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and arbitrage; use the strategy of selling a wide straddle for options [28][29]. Sugar - Market situation: The international sugar price fluctuated, and the domestic sugar price was slightly stronger. The global main producing areas are increasing production, but the expected sugar surplus has been significantly reduced. The domestic sugar mills are gradually starting production, and the supply pressure is increasing, but the import tightening and high production costs support the price [30][32][33]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the international sugar price fluctuates, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate within a range; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [33]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market situation: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil changed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory will gradually decrease slightly, the Indonesian palm oil inventory is low, the domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, the soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, and the domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory [34][37]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the short - term oil lacks bullish drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct high - selling and low - buying; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [37][38]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market situation: The CBOT corn futures rose. The domestic corn inventory decreased, the feed enterprise inventory increased, the processing volume and starch production increased, and the starch inventory decreased slightly. The Northeast and North China corn prices rose [39][40][41]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the December CBOT corn fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term long positions can be taken on pullbacks; wait and see for the January contract, and wait for pullbacks for the May and July contracts; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [41]. Live Pigs - Market situation: The live pig price rebounded slightly, the piglet price rose, and the sow price remained stable. The short - term slaughter pressure improved, but the overall inventory was still high [42][43]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, lightly establish short positions; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; use the strategy of selling a wide straddle for options [43]. Peanuts - Market situation: The average price of peanuts increased, the oil mill's purchase price was under pressure, and the inventory of peanut oil and peanuts increased. The new peanuts are on the market, the import volume has decreased significantly, and the price of peanut meal is stable [44][45]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the January peanut fluctuates at the bottom, and long positions can be established on pullbacks for the May peanut; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [45][46]. Eggs - Market situation: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased slightly, and that in the main selling areas remained stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, the number of culled hens decreased, the egg sales volume decreased, and the inventory decreased [47][48][49]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49]. Apples - Market situation: The apple cold - storage inventory ratio was lower than last year, the import volume decreased, and the export volume increased slightly. The apple price was basically stable, and the quality was poor this year [52][53]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, consider going long on pullbacks; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [53][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market situation: The ICE US cotton futures fell. The Xinjiang cotton picking is nearing completion, the new cotton will be on the market in large quantities, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [56][57]. - Trading strategy: It is expected that the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate in the short term; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [58]. Black Metals Steel - Market situation: The social financing scale increased year - on - year, but the growth rate decreased. The supply and inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the steel price fluctuates within a range [60][61]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the steel price fluctuates within a range; for arbitrage, go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market situation: The coking coal auction had a high non - trading rate, and the steel mill was in a loss state. The fourth - round price increase of coke was partially implemented. The short - term driving force is not obvious, and the market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [63][64]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, wait and see in the short term and consider going long on pullbacks in the medium term; conduct a 1/5 reverse spread for coking coal; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [65]. Iron Ore - Market situation: The iron ore price rebounded slightly at night. The supply is at a high level in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak [66]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [67]. Ferroalloys - Market situation: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, and the supply was high while the demand was expected to decline. The manganese ore spot was slightly strong, and the manganese silicon spot was slightly weak. The cost has support, and the previous short positions can be reduced [68]. - Trading strategy: Reduce the previous short positions on pullbacks for single - side trading; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market situation: London gold and silver fell, and Shanghai gold and silver rose. The US government ended the shutdown, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the market sentiment. The precious metals market had a short - term profit - taking, but it is expected to remain volatile at a high level [70][71][72]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver cautiously; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; continue to hold the collar call option strategy [73]. Copper - Market situation: The Shanghai copper futures rose slightly, and the LME copper fell. The US government ended the shutdown, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks pressured the copper price. The supply decreased, and the demand was supported by the power grid's centralized bidding. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [74][75]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider a long - term long - position strategy; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [77]. Alumina - Market situation: The alumina futures rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. The supply exceeded demand, but the downstream electrolytic aluminum plant was stocking up. There is a continuous expectation of production cuts, but the actual production cuts have not occurred, and there is medium - term pressure [78][80]. - Trading strategy: Be vigilant against the selling pressure caused by the enlarged basis after the price rebound; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [82]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market situation: The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot price increased. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks affected the market sentiment. The overseas supply - demand situation is tight, and the domestic consumption is resilient [83][84]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the price trend is strong, and profit - taking can be considered at 22100 - 22500 yuan; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [84]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: The cast aluminum alloy futures and spot prices rose. The US government ended the shutdown, and Fed officials' remarks were hawkish. The cost has support, but the demand is affected by the high price. The alloy price follows the upward trend of aluminum [86][87]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the alloy price is strong following the aluminum price; for arbitrage, go long on AD and short on AL; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [88]. Zinc - Market situation: The LME zinc and Shanghai zinc futures fell. The domestic inventory decreased, the processing fee decreased, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The export window is open, but the upward space is limited [89][91]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, the price fluctuates within a range; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short position; adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [92]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead and Shanghai lead futures fell. The supply is recovering, the demand is weakening, and the domestic inventory may accumulate [93]. - Trading strategy: Hold the short - profit position and be vigilant against the impact of funds on the price; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [95]. Nickel - Market situation: The LME nickel price fell, and the inventory decreased. The refined nickel supply - demand is loose, the price of high - nickel iron and nickel sulfate is weak, and the market is pessimistic [96]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, sell on rebounds; adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [97]. Stainless Steel - Market situation: The supply and demand are weak, and the raw material is under pressure. No specific trading strategy was provided in the text.

Group 1 - The article highlights the growing divide between federal and local attitudes in the U.S. towards China, with state officials actively seeking business opportunities in China despite federal tensions [2] - California Governor Gavin Newsom led a trade mission to China in October 2023, discussing climate change, economic development, and signing agreements in clean energy, emphasizing California's significant trade relationship with China, which exceeded $150 billion in 2023 [4][5] - Oregon Senate President Rob Wagner also undertook a trade mission in October 2025, focusing on sustainable agriculture and technology, with Oregon's exports to China reaching $7.84 billion in 2023, a 29% increase from the previous year [7][9] - Washington State's Commerce Director Lisa Brown participated in the China International Import Expo in November 2025, highlighting the state's reliance on Chinese orders for its aerospace industry, with exports to China around $20 billion in 2023 [9][10] Group 2 - The article notes that nearly one million jobs in the U.S. are dependent on trade with China, prompting local officials to take proactive measures to stabilize trade relationships amid federal policy fluctuations [10] - The actions of California, Oregon, and Washington reflect a broader trend among U.S. states to engage directly with China, showcasing a form of economic self-help and local diplomacy [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's commitment to maintaining an open and cooperative approach in global agricultural trade, highlighting its role as a significant participant in this sector [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced the outcomes of the recent China-US economic and trade consultations, which include agreements on agricultural product trade [1] - China is undertaking export control measures for rare earth elements in accordance with laws and regulations, balancing national security interests with international obligations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to restricted imports and widespread oil - mill shutdowns, but the demand is weak because of the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the sufficient supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at the rigid level. The rapeseed oil futures price has rebounded from a low level recently, with increased short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and ICE rapeseed futures are 9840 yuan/ton, 2494 yuan/ton, and 642.5 Canadian dollars/ton respectively, with changes of 65 yuan/ton, - 6 yuan/ton, and 3.8 Canadian dollars/ton compared to the previous period [2]. - The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil (1 - 5) and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) are 450 yuan/ton and 62 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 24 yuan/ton and - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - The positions of the main contracts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 221,984 lots and 468,864 lots respectively, with increases of 4090 lots and 3026 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 2456 lots and 35,853 lots respectively, with changes of - 268 lots and an increase of 3275 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 5373 lots and 2745 lots respectively, with changes of - 325 lots and 0 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu and rapeseed meal in Nantong are 10,030 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 200 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,147.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The import cost of rapeseed is 7956.03 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.05 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The oil - meal ratio is 3.88, with an increase of 0.08 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract and rapeseed meal contract are 255 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 12 yuan/ton and - 24 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot prices of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing, 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang are 8550 yuan/ton, 8620 yuan/ton, and 3050 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal are 1490 yuan/ton, 1420 yuan/ton, and 550 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 100 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons, with an increase of 1.38 million tons. The annual predicted production of rapeseed in a certain area is 13,446 thousand tons, with an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 11.53 million tons, with a decrease of 13.13 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 734 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.5 million tons, with a decrease of 0.5 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, with a decrease of 1.6% [2]. - The monthly import volumes of rapeseed oil and mustard oil, and rapeseed meal are 16 million tons and 15.77 million tons respectively, with changes of 2 million tons and - 5.57 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The coastal area inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 2.6 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively, with changes of - 1.2 million tons and - 0.21 million tons [2]. - The inventories of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region and rapeseed meal in the East China and South China regions have different changes. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 1.31 million tons and 0.2 million tons respectively, with decreases of 0.53 million tons and 0.19 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly production values of feed and edible vegetable oil are 3128.7 million tons and 495 million tons respectively, with increases of 201.5 million tons and 44.4 million tons [2]. - The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4508.6 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal are 20.94%, with changes of - 0.28% and - 0.29% respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 24.18% and 24.97% respectively, with changes of 0.08% and - 1.51% [2]. - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil are 13.96% and 13.97% respectively, with increases of 0.91% and 0.92%. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 14.38% and 15.25% respectively, with changes of 0.23% and - 0.62% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Tuesday. The optimistic sentiment in Sino - US trade boosted the US soybean futures price, but the recent rise has slowed down [2]. - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export volume of Canadian rapeseed from August 1 to November 2, 2025, decreased by 54.1% compared to the same period last year, but Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports [2]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first ten days of November is still poor, but the market's pessimistic sentiment has eased slightly due to the significantly higher - than - expected exports in October [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **豆油**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **标油**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **豆粕**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - **菜油**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **菜粕**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **玉米**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **生猪**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - **鸡蛋**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs [豆一] - The price of domestic soybeans shows high - level fluctuations. Short - term policies are conducive to price stability, and the spot price is stable [2] - The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans are increasing. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans shows a sideways trend without a clear short - term trend [2] - Continuously monitor domestic soybean policies and market sentiment in the short term [2] [大豆&豆粕] - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 fluctuates strongly. US soybeans are expected to continue rising [3] - The tax rate for importing US soybeans in China has been changed to 13%, and commercial imports still have no price advantage, while policy - based purchases should be unaffected [3] - The estimated soybean arrivals from November to January next year are about 9.5 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 5 million tons respectively, with sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [3] - Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report on Friday. Foreign media expect a slight decrease in US soybean yield, and the ending inventory data may be crucial [3] - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices after the relaxation of Sino - US trade [3] [豆油&棕榈油] - Rapeseed oil is still strong today, leading the market. Soybean oil rises slightly, and palm oil moves sideways [4] - The actual supply - demand situation of palm oil shows high inventory in Malaysia. The supply - demand situation in November needs to be monitored to guide price trends [4] - The near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans is damaged, which supports the price of soybean oil [4] - The oil - meal ratio shows that soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal this week. The price of palm oil moves sideways, and it is necessary to monitor its supply - demand situation and the trends of surrounding oils [4] [菜粕&菜油] - The main contracts of rapeseed futures increase positions slightly, continuing the pattern of strong oil and weak meal [6] - The short - term supply shortage sentiment caused by the suspension of rapeseed meal crushing in domestic coastal areas is gradually easing, and it is expected to be greatly alleviated after the arrival of Australian rapeseed [6] - The Canadian government has established a $372 million biofuel production incentive program, which boosts the demand outlook for rapeseed oil [6] - Canadian rapeseed continues the state of high crushing and low exports. Pay attention to the development of Sino - Canadian relations [6] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for rapeseed products [6] [玉米] - The Dalian corn futures 2601 contract rises first and then falls. The estimated corn output this season is 300 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous season [7] - The selling progress of corn in Northeast China is slower than expected, and the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply in Shandong continues to decrease, and the spot price is stable [7] - The price of wheat weakens due to the expected auction. The transfer of grain rights is not large, and the peak of new grain supply in Northeast China has not passed. The rebound height is expected to be limited [7] - The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] [生猪] - The pig futures market continues to trade the expectation of capacity reduction. The far - month contracts continue to rebound, and the near - month contracts fluctuate narrowly [8] - The spot price of pigs continues to decline weakly. The current rebound of the futures market is regarded as a post - bottoming rebound [8] - In the long - term, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low price in October is likely to be the first bottom, and there is a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] [鸡蛋] - The egg futures price drops rapidly during the session, with a net increase of nearly 10,000 lots in funds and heavy trading volume [9] - The near - month contracts lead the decline, and the market switches from trading the capacity reduction expectation of far - month contracts to trading the logic that the spot price of eggs weakens after Double Eleven [9] - The spot price of eggs is stable in most regions and falls in some regions. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on November 12, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver, tin, and crude oil rose, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes declined. There were also fluctuations in stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The flow of funds into and out of different contracts varied [6][7]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations. For example, copper prices are affected by supply uncertainties and weak downstream demand; lithium carbonate prices are supported by supply - demand tightness; and crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical issues [9][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of November 12, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Silver, tin, butadiene rubber, SC crude oil, rapeseed oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and iron ore rose over 1%, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes had significant drops. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of funds, some contracts had inflows while others had outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Supply: With long - term contract negotiations approaching, there is uncertainty in long - term contract prices and settlement methods. In November, 5 smelters are expected to conduct maintenance, affecting 4.80 million tons of production. The开工 rate of copper concentrate smelters decreased, while that of smelters using scrap copper or anode copper increased. Scrap copper supply is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The peak season was weaker than previous years, and downstream demand remained weak. Copper product开工 rates declined, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Supply: In October, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China decreased year - on - year, but domestic production continued to grow. The开工 rate increased [11] - Demand: Supported by the strong performance of energy - storage batteries, downstream procurement was smooth. The production of power, energy - storage, and consumer batteries increased, and new - energy vehicle sales also grew [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December but pause in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco lowered prices for Asian markets. US crude production reached a new high, and overall oil inventories increased slightly [12] - Demand: The peak consumption season ended, and market concerns about demand increased due to factors like the decline in the US manufacturing index [12] - Geopolitical factors: US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the US - Venezuela military stand - off, and the attitude of Indian oil companies towards Russian oil all affect the market [12][14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: The开工 rate decreased slightly last week, and November's production is expected to decline. Some refineries plan to resume production [15] - Demand: Downstream开工 rates mostly increased, but were restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, while southern demand is affected by rain [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: The开工 rate of PP enterprises increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The proportion of standard - grade production increased [16][17] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate was at a low level in the same period. Orders had limited follow - up, and the market lacked large - scale purchases [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The开工 rate increased, and new production capacity was put into operation or in trial operation [18] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate decreased. Although the agricultural film season was in progress, the peak season was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The开工 rate increased and was at a relatively high level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and some enterprises' maintenance was about to end [20] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate declined slightly. Exports are expected to weaken, and social inventory increased [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal imports increased, but domestic production decreased. Policy - driven production cuts and environmental protection warnings made the supply in a tight - balance situation [21] - Demand: Steel mills'开工 and iron - water production decreased, and downstream demand was weak [22] 3.2.9 Urea - Supply: Factory复产 and new production increased the daily output, and high production is expected to continue this month [23] - Demand: Downstream high - price acceptance was average, but demand in the Northeast increased. The market was affected by export news, and inventory was decreasing [23]