Asia Insights Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan CNH: BOP dynamics improving, but RMB appreciation is likely to be constrained Some improvement in major flow components, but RMB appreciation is likely to be constrained unless state bank FX accumulation ebbs. July net trade settlement data showed further improvement in exporters' remittances China's July net FX trade settlement increased notably to USD60.9bn (June: USD44.0bn; Q2 average: USD37.2bn), which is equivalent to a substantial ...

尽管中美之间的关税暂停期又延长了90天，特朗普表示仍将继续与中国保持对话，寻求解决贸易问题， 他还强调自己与中国领导人的关系良好。中国外交部发言人林剑则表示，中方在中美关系及经贸问题上 的立场一贯明确，具体事宜还需要向相关主管部门了解。 最近，特朗普在社交媒体上发布了一则帖子，要求中国将对美国大豆的订单增加到原来的四倍，并且承 诺提供"快速服务"。这一言论一经传播，芝加哥期货交易所的大豆价格迅速飙升，创下了两周来的最高 点。与此同时，特朗普还签署了一项行政命令，将暂停对中国的关税期再延长90天。经过这些波动，究 竟能带来多大影响，尚难以预测。 中国一直是全球最大的大豆进口国，但今年的购买节奏却异常缓慢，甚至有些出乎意料。美国农业经纪 公司ZanerAgHedge的凯伦·布劳恩指出，今年中国购买美国大豆的速度是自2005年以来最慢的一次。 2005年中国首次从美国购买大豆时，是在8月11日那一周，而今年如果继续拖延，最迟可能要追溯到 1999年的情况了。 这种延迟已经让美国的农民和贸易商感到焦虑。自1995年开始，中国就一直是美国大豆的主要买家。通 常情况下，中国会在年初就下单，预定秋季收获的豆子。但如今，新的 ...

[Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F031445 ...

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the importance of private enterprises in the development of the socialist market economy, highlighting the need for policies that support and protect non-public ownership [10][11][12] - The 2025 National Ecological Day event focused on promoting the concept of "Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets," aiming for a more beautiful ecological environment and sustainable economic growth [12][14] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, indicating a need for stable and flexible monetary policies to support economic growth [25][26] - Recent fiscal policies include the implementation of interest subsidy programs for personal consumption loans and service industry loans, aimed at reducing financing costs and stimulating consumer spending [15][23] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-share indices showed significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 8.58% and the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Component Index both increasing by over 3.5% [24] - The MSCI China A-share Index rose by 2.85%, reflecting positive market sentiment and capital inflows, with net inflows exceeding 35 billion yuan in the second week of August [24] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a rebound, while crude oil prices saw a slight decline, and agricultural products remained under pressure [4][27] - The OPEC monthly report predicts a tighter oil market in the coming year, indicating potential supply constraints [4] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Market Overview - The US dollar index fell to 97.84, down 0.43% week-on-week, while the Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.19 [5][30] - Recent developments include a slight decrease in the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales balance, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market [5][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the soybean meal market is showing signs of strength despite recent fluctuations, with a notable divergence between futures and spot prices [2][4] - The soybean meal market is supported by a projected shortage in the fourth quarter, which is a significant factor influencing market dynamics [4][5] - The cost of imports is a critical support factor for soybean meal prices, as even if U.S. soybeans return to the Chinese market, prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to high import costs [6][9][10] Group 2 - Demand for soybean meal is being bolstered by recent developments in the canola meal market, particularly following anti-dumping measures against Canadian canola seeds, which have led to a rise in canola meal prices [11][13] - The current market situation for soybean meal reflects a balance between high inventory levels and long-term bullish expectations, indicating a gradual upward shift in spot prices [13] - Any unexpected regulatory changes could trigger a significant price increase in soybean meal, highlighting the market's sensitivity to external factors [13]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, leading to an accumulation of soybeans in U.S. storage facilities [3][5][11] - President Trump's request for China to increase soybean purchases by four times reflects the urgency of the situation, as U.S. farmers face unsold stock [3][5] - The trade tensions initiated by the "tariff war" have disrupted the traditional soybean trade between the U.S. and China, prompting China to seek alternative suppliers from South America [5][9][16] Group 2 - China has already secured soybean orders from South America, with approximately 8 million tons confirmed for September, indicating a shift away from U.S. soybeans [9][11] - The current soybean prices in the U.S. are declining, yet there are still few buyers, exacerbating the situation for American farmers [11][13] - China's diversification in trade relationships and the potential for increased orders from Argentina suggest that the U.S. may struggle to regain its market share in the soybean sector [13][16][18]

Core Viewpoint - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) experienced a significant decline of over 12%, marking its largest drop since March 2020, primarily due to disappointing sales and earnings forecasts, raising concerns about demand suppression from US-China trade tensions [1] Financial Performance - For the third fiscal quarter ending July 27, Applied Materials reported a revenue increase of 8% year-over-year to $7.3 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $7.21 billion [1] - The adjusted net profit for the quarter was $1.989 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.48, also exceeding the average analyst estimate of $2.36 [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts fourth fiscal quarter revenue to be approximately $6.7 billion, falling short of the analyst average expectation of $7.32 billion [1] - Expected adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter is around $2.11, which is below the analyst average estimate of $2.38 [1] Market Challenges - The CEO of Applied Materials, Gary Dickerson, indicated a decline in demand from Chinese customers and delays in technology export approvals to China [1] - Major clients are postponing procurement plans amid ongoing negotiations related to tariffs and other economic issues, contributing to a degree of uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - Applied Materials (AMAT.US), the largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment producer in the U.S., provided disappointing sales and earnings forecasts, raising concerns about demand suppression due to U.S.-China trade tensions [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 FY2025, Applied Materials reported a revenue of $7.302 billion, an 8% increase from $6.778 billion in Q3 FY2024, exceeding analyst expectations of $7.21 billion [2]. - The adjusted net income for the same period was $1.989 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.48, surpassing the expected $2.36 [2]. - The company forecasts Q4 FY2025 revenue to be approximately $6.7 billion, below analyst expectations of $7.32 billion, and adjusted EPS is expected to be around $2.11, also below the anticipated $2.38 [3]. Market Dynamics - Applied Materials' customer base includes major semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, making its performance guidance a key indicator of future demand [3]. - The CEO, Gary Dickerson, indicated a decline in demand from Chinese customers and delays in technology export approvals to China, contributing to uncertainty in procurement plans [3][4]. - Competitor Lam Research (LRCX.US) also projected lower revenue for the upcoming quarter, citing reduced spending from Chinese clients following a previous surge in orders [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, the long-term demand for computing power remains strong, with Chinese customers having significantly increased their purchases in recent years, currently in a phase of inventory digestion [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Recently, Applied Materials announced plans to invest over $200 million in a factory in Arizona as part of Apple's expansion of manufacturing in the U.S., reinforcing its position as a key supplier for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [5]. - The company is optimistic about the U.S. government's focus on enhancing domestic semiconductor supply chains [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent extension of the suspension of the 24% tariff increase between China and the U.S. is seen as a positive signal for trade stability and global economic growth, despite ongoing uncertainties in international trade and geopolitical conflicts [3]. Export Orders Recovery - A Jiangsu automotive parts exporter reported that orders to the U.S. have remained stable this year, although high tariffs continue to exert cost pressure on businesses [5]. - Shanghai-based Silede Industrial Co. stated that their U.S. orders have recovered to about 80%, thanks to established brand recognition, while a Zhejiang kitchenware exporter noted a 20% decline in U.S. orders [6]. - Customs data indicated that China's exports to the U.S. fell by 21.7% year-on-year in July, with the high tariffs and uncertainty leading to a cautious approach from buyers [6][7]. Supply Chain and Long-term Strategies - Companies are adapting to tariff fluctuations by enhancing efficiency and potentially passing some costs to consumers, although this impacts profit margins [7]. - The recent tariff suspension has led to increased orders from U.S. clients as they stock up during the 90-day window [7]. - Despite the short-term strategies, companies are focusing on long-term international supply chain development and local investments to enhance competitiveness [10]. Regional Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has imposed varying tariffs on different countries, prompting a need for stricter product origin requirements and accelerating regional integration efforts among non-U.S. regions [11]. - China's exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets have increased, compensating for the decline in U.S. exports, with total exports growing by 6.1% in the first seven months of the year [11][12]. Industry Transformation - The focus on diversifying markets and production locations is becoming more pronounced, with an emphasis on reducing dependency on single markets [12]. - High-tech product exports, such as integrated circuits, have shown significant growth, indicating a shift towards higher value-added and innovative products [12].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on **trade dynamics** including exports and imports, particularly in relation to the United States and other regions. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Growth Trends** - In July, the year-on-year export growth rate increased slightly from 5.9% in June to 7.2% in July. However, seasonally adjusted exports showed a slight month-on-month decline, indicating weakening momentum in export growth [1][4]. 2. **Exports to the United States** - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 3% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year decline expanding from 16.1% in June to 21.6% in July. This reflects a continued low level of exports to the U.S., although slightly higher than in April and May [2][4]. 3. **Regional Export Performance** - Exports to ASEAN countries saw a month-on-month decline of 2.6%, but year-on-year growth remained robust at 16.6%. In contrast, exports to the EU grew by 9.2% year-on-year, while exports to Japan slowed to a 2% growth rate [2][4]. 4. **Import Growth** - July imports showed a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, up from 1.1% in June. The actual import volume growth rate also improved from 3% to 4.9%. Notably, the decline in the import of a basket of commodities narrowed from 9% to 4% [3][4]. 5. **Impact of Trade Policies** - Trade uncertainties remain high, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. affecting over 70 economies. The potential for further tariffs on semiconductors could significantly impact China's exports to the U.S., which currently account for over 20% of its export volume [4][4]. 6. **Future Export Projections** - The expectation is that China's year-on-year export decline to the U.S. will widen in the second half of the year, with projections indicating a 1% growth in exports for 2025, followed by a potential 3% decline in 2026 due to tariff impacts [4][4]. Additional Important Content - **Product-Specific Export Trends** - Key products such as electronics saw a slowdown in export growth, with mobile phone exports declining by 22% year-on-year. In contrast, integrated circuit exports continued to grow [2][17]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - The overall trade surplus and nominal import/export growth rates are illustrated in various charts, indicating fluctuating trends over the years [6][10]. - **Currency Fluctuations** - The Chinese yuan experienced a mild depreciation against the U.S. dollar in July, which may influence trade dynamics [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of international trade.