Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: Due to the continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the potential increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugarcane for sugar production in Brazil's new crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential positive factors for raw sugar in the future, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. - Cotton: The issuance of an additional 300,000 tons of import quotas is a short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the downstream operating rate has returned to the level of the same period last year. The overall view is neutral, and the subsequent price trend depends on the downstream operating conditions. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [5][7]. - Soybeans and Protein Meal: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Oils: Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving up oil prices. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on oils in the medium term [13]. - Eggs: The egg production capacity is on a downward trend, but the absolute supply level remains high. The supply reduction is expected to be delayed. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contracts on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near term and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the long term [17]. - Pigs: Considering the still - high weight and theoretical slaughter volume, although the inventory of small farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is insufficient under the current fat - to - standard price difference, providing limited support for the market. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term futures contracts and wait and see in the long - term contracts due to high premium [20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Production Data**: In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, as of February 28, India's cumulative sugar production was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that India's net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 29.3 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton reduction from the second prediction but a 3.17 - million - ton year - on - year increase. As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 181.29 million tons due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand [2]. Cotton - **Supply - Demand Data**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 tons of processing trade import quotas with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; the export to China in the same period was 1,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [4]. Soybeans - **Production and Export Data**: AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.8 million tons, a 3.8 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; the export to China in the same period was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction but a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [8]. Oils - **Industry News**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are prohibited from exporting relevant products before meeting domestic demand. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52%. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but an 860,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. According to MPOB data, Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 90,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; exports were 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 130,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 1.19 - million - ton increase from the same period last year [11]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The national egg price remained stable yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas slightly dropping 0.01 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each level was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with individual prices rising or falling [15][16]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some areas continuing to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.09 yuan to 10.14 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 10.07 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi dropped 0.09 yuan to 9.99 yuan per kilogram. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream pig purchase volume is relatively stable, and farmers' willingness to sell is strong. It is expected that the weak pig price trend will continue in the near future [19].