因此，"短线鸡蛋市场供需博弈，鸡蛋价格或延续底部震荡，虽然不排除部分阶段有低价补货现象推动 价格上涨，但整体或维持涨跌两难局面。"李阳认为，不过，12月随着节假日因素增加，供需环境或缓 慢改善，对鸡蛋价格或有利多影响。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据卓创资讯分析师李阳介绍，10月起产蛋鸡存栏出现下降拐点，但基于目前供应端产能基数仍较高，因 此供应减少对市场的利多支撑暂不明显。同时，月内鸡蛋需求进入消费淡季，叠加年内养殖、贸易环节 盈利承压，整体需求端对后市信心不足，淡季模式暂难扭转。 新华财经北京11月20日电 10月下旬以来，国内鸡蛋价格略显企稳回升，但期现货表现有所差异。盘面 上看，在10月前半月弱势下探至逾五年低点之后，鸡蛋期货价格在下旬主力换月后强势回升，进入11月 以来则进一步延续反弹走势。截至11月20日，鸡蛋主力合约期价较10月末上涨约100元/500千克。相比 之下，鸡蛋现货仍旧偏弱。截至11月19日，全国鸡蛋均价为2.82元／斤，较月初跌幅2.42%。 ...

据农业农村部监测，10月份全国鸡蛋批发价为每公斤7.63元，环比下降5.22%，同比下降26.56%。 （央视财经《正点财经》）记者从农业农村部了解到，10月份全国鸡蛋供应充足，环比价格小幅下降。 据商户介绍，由于鸡蛋储存商的鸡蛋存量仍然较大，并随时准备出库，对现在的蛋价形成制约，因此11月份第一周 鸡蛋价格延续下降走势，周降幅在4%左右。据了解，这两年鸡蛋主要产区现代化规模养鸡场增加较快，使得鸡蛋市 场供应大于需求的局面得以维持较长时间。 在北京新发地农产品批发市场，商户瓮小霞正在将产自河北的鸡蛋整理入库，她告诉记者，10月份至今，市场鸡蛋 价格呈现波动下行的态势，主要是国庆节之后鸡蛋消费季节性转淡。 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所副研究员 朱宁：就后市来看，全国在产蛋鸡存栏以稳为主，短期内难以逆转 高供给态势，鸡蛋消费正处于淡季，鸡蛋市场供应保持宽松格局。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 ...

Core Viewpoints - The egg futures market is experiencing a short-term upward trend, with institutions suggesting a cautious approach and potential short-selling opportunities in the future [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The overall egg price in the country is stabilizing, with seasonal patterns indicating potential price fluctuations due to inventory and supply pressures [1] - The supply side shows a strengthening price gap between large and small eggs, attributed to the accelerated culling of older hens and an increase in new laying hens, primarily of imported breeds [1] - Demand remains steady, with traders mostly purchasing eggs as needed, leading to minimal inventory changes and a lack of proactive stocking behavior [1][2] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - Institutions expect the egg market to maintain a strong short-term trend, with a focus on potential short-selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [2] - The current high inventory levels and low chick replenishment rates are expected to improve long-term supply forecasts, despite the existing high price premiums in future contracts [2] - The sentiment in the market is shifting positively due to upcoming consumption events like Double Eleven and pre-holiday stocking, which may lead to increased inventory accumulation [3]

Core Viewpoint - In October 2025, the egg prices experienced a seasonal decline, with expectations for a transitional recovery in supply and demand in November and December [1][2]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.96 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.95% [2][4]. - Historically, October has seen price declines in 9 out of the last 10 years, with the seasonal index for October 2025 at 0.85, indicating a typical seasonal drop [2][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - High supply levels have pressured egg prices below previous years, with the number of laying hens reaching a peak of 1.368 billion by September [4]. - Demand has decreased due to the end of holiday effects, leading to a seasonal decline in consumption, with sales in major consumption areas dropping by 3.88% month-on-month and 10.67% year-on-year by the fourth week of October [5][6]. Price Recovery Factors - The rebound in egg prices in late October was driven by three main factors: reaching a price level that encouraged replenishment, rising vegetable prices improving egg demand, and lower temperatures allowing for inventory management [4][6]. - Despite some recovery, overall demand remains limited, making it difficult to support a significant increase in total demand [5][6]. Future Price Expectations - The egg price is expected to face short-term pressure but may see long-term recovery, with a slight increase in laying hen numbers anticipated in November and December [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in the short term, with prices fluctuating between 2.80 and 3.10 yuan per jin, while the overall price level in late 2025 and early 2026 is likely to remain low compared to previous years [7].

Core Viewpoint - In September, the demand for eggs increased across the country, alleviating supply pressure and leading to a rise in egg prices, although still lower than the same period last year. Feed costs remained stable, allowing egg production to turn profitable. In October, egg prices are expected to stabilize initially before declining, with a potential reduction in profit margins for producers [1][8]. Group 1: Egg Market Dynamics - The national average price of eggs reached 3.49 yuan per jin by September 25, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.05% [1][3]. - The average cost of feed for eggs was 3.03 yuan per jin, showing a slight decrease of 0.33% month-on-month [1][3]. - The total number of laying hens increased to 1.365 billion by the end of August, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.06%, the highest level since 2021 [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for eggs improved significantly due to seasonal factors, including increased purchases by schools and food companies ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][8]. - Despite the increase in demand, there remains some supply pressure, particularly from cold storage eggs entering the market [3][8]. - The egg production rate is expected to stabilize as temperatures drop, contributing to higher egg output [3]. Group 3: Feed Cost Trends - The price of soybean meal decreased by 3.92% compared to the beginning of the month, which slightly reduced feed costs [5][7]. - The average feed cost for eggs was reported at 3.01 yuan per jin, a minor decrease of 0.66% from the start of the month [5][7]. - Corn prices remained stable, with no significant changes observed in supply and demand dynamics [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In October, egg prices are anticipated to stabilize initially before experiencing a decline, with potential prices dropping to between 3.00 and 3.20 yuan per jin [8][9]. - The profit margin for egg producers is expected to shrink as feed costs may decrease at a slower rate than egg prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly affected by the double - festival stocking. As the festival stocking ends, egg prices are expected to decline. The futures price may not necessarily follow the spot price down. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [5][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the spot price of eggs showed a strong trend. The average price in the main production areas reached a maximum of around 3.81 yuan per catty, and in the main sales areas, it reached around 3.82 yuan per catty. The futures contract of eggs also performed strongly, but the increase was limited due to the high inventory of laying hens [4][11] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Recently, the market sales have slowed down. The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly due to the double - festival stocking. As the stocking ends, the spot price of eggs has begun to fall. Although the supply pressure is high and the spot price has dropped, the near - month futures price is relatively low and the trading volume is large. It is expected that the futures price may not follow the spot price down [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see and trade at an appropriate time. Arbitrage and options trading: It is recommended to wait and see [6][9] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the market review in the first part, in September, the spot price of eggs was strong, and the futures price increased but with limited amplitude due to high inventory [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply side**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The inventory of laying hens from September to December 2025 is estimated to be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively. In September, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 38%, medium - sized eggs was 44%, and small - sized eggs was 18%. The egg - laying rate in September was about 91.11%, and it is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather. In August, the number of chicks hatched by sample enterprises decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year. The price of chicks in September was at a low level in the same period over the years. The market's enthusiasm for culling laying hens first increased and then decreased [12][14] - **Demand side**: In September, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak season was not as good as previous years. As of the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas increased by 5% week - on - week but was at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. From January to August 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the catering revenue in August increased by 2.1% year - on - year [21] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [21] - **Cost and profit**: The current feed cost has little change. In September, the price of corn was 2358 yuan per ton, and the price of soybean meal dropped to 3038 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2562 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.81 yuan per catty of eggs. As of September 18, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.45 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.3 yuan per catty from the previous week. On September 18, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 2.97 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [24] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price index continued to rise, but it was at a relatively low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated with little overall change, and the substitution demand for eggs was relatively limited [30] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply side**: The supply pressure is still significant. The rebound of egg prices has improved the breeding profit, and the enthusiasm for culling has decreased. The number of culled hens is at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years, and the age of culled hens has increased. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high [34] - **Demand side**: As the seasonal stocking ends, the boost to egg prices is limited. The market sales have slowed down, but some areas still have good sales due to festival stocking [34] - **Feed cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs is about 2.8 yuan per catty. The prices of corn and soybean meal have little change, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: As the holiday expectations end, the spot price of eggs is expected to fall. The near - month futures contract is significantly lower than the spot price, and the futures and spot prices will converge in the short term. It is a capacity - reduction cycle in the second half of the year, but the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [34]

Core Viewpoint - The overall price of eggs has increased significantly in mid-September, with an average daily price rising from 3.10 yuan per jin at the beginning of the month to 3.75 yuan per jin by the 17th, marking a cumulative increase of 0.65 yuan per jin, or 20.97% [1][2]. Price Trends - The egg futures market also experienced a rebound, with prices rising nearly 300 yuan per 500 kilograms at the beginning of the month, peaking at 3197 yuan per 500 kilograms, and currently maintaining above 3000 yuan per 500 kilograms [1]. - As of September 24, the average price of eggs in major production areas was 3.62 yuan per jin, reflecting a 16.77% increase from the beginning of the month but a 3.47% decline from the monthly high [2]. Demand Factors - Improved demand is identified as the primary driver for the rise in egg prices this month, particularly due to the upcoming double festival, which is expected to boost domestic purchasing volumes [2]. - However, high inventory levels and sufficient egg supply are suppressing price levels compared to the same period last year [2]. Future Outlook - With the double festival approaching, food manufacturers have largely completed their procurement, and downstream traders are exhibiting increased risk aversion, likely reducing their purchasing volumes from production areas [2]. - Consequently, it is anticipated that the overall demand for eggs may decline in late September, indicating insufficient momentum for further price increases before the Mid-Autumn Festival [2].

Report Title - "Egg Weekly Report: Demand Boosted, Egg Prices Stable with an Uptrend" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The egg market is influenced by multiple factors including supply, demand, cost, and seasonal events. Currently, the supply is relatively high, but demand has been boosted by school openings, festivals, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival备货. However, the market still faces challenges such as high production capacity and average external sales. Overall, the egg price is expected to have limited upside potential in the short term and remains under the influence of supply - demand dynamics [5][10][17] Summary by Directory First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main consuming areas, it was 3.37 yuan/jin, also up 0.19 yuan/jin. Egg prices rose due to the Mid - Autumn Festival备货 and other factors, but the overall备货 scale was less than in previous years, and the high price might appear this week. The price of old hens fluctuated narrowly [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From September 4th, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.89 million, a 3.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 495 days, a 1 - day decrease from the previous week. In August, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The monthly egg chick hatching volume of sample enterprises in August was 39.81 million, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease and an 8% year - on - year decrease. The estimated in - production egg - laying hen inventory from September to December 2025 is 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of September 4th, the corn price was around 2360 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3084 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2577 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin for eggs. As of September 5th, the weekly average egg profit was - 0.11 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week. On August 29th, the expected egg - laying hen farming profit was 5.89 yuan/hen, a 2.05 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - Affected by school openings and the Mid - Autumn Festival, the sales volume in the consuming areas increased. As of August 21st, the national representative consuming area egg sales volume was 7439 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. As of September 4th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.93 days, a 0.13 - day decrease from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a 0.09 - day decrease from the previous week. The vegetable price index slightly rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [16] 5. Trading Strategies - The supply - side pressure has been slightly relieved, but the in - production inventory is still high, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. In September, demand is expected to increase due to pre - festival stocking, and the spot price may rise slightly. For trading, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - This part mainly presents data charts related to egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen farming situation, and price spreads and basis, but no specific data analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [20][24][28]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound after significant declines, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a notable increase in short-covering activity [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures hit a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 2959 yuan, followed by a rise to 3011 yuan on September 3, marking a 2.62% increase [3]. - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, indicating a historical peak in open interest, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [3][10]. - The 2510 contract's open interest has decreased for three consecutive days, while the 2511 contract has seen an increase in long positions [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has slightly increased due to school openings and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, but supply pressures remain high, limiting the potential for significant price increases [4][5]. - The circulation speed of eggs has improved, with inventory days decreasing from 0.89 days in August to 0.73 days in early September [5]. - Despite the seasonal uptick in demand, the overall supply remains robust, with a high production rate expected as the heat stress on laying hens subsides [5][11]. Group 3: Producer Sentiment - Producers are showing decreased enthusiasm for restocking due to prolonged losses, with a notable decline in the number of hens being replaced [6][8]. - The age of culled hens has decreased from approximately 540 days to 500 days, indicating a shift in producer behavior in response to market conditions [8]. - The current cash breeding cost is around 2.8 to 2.9 yuan per jin, while egg prices are fluctuating around 3.0 yuan per jin, leading to financial strain on producers [9]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The egg market is expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom, with current prices being relatively undervalued, but no significant improvement in fundamentals is anticipated [10]. - The potential for a rebound in prices exists, but it is likely to be limited due to the high production capacity and the anticipated increase in supply from newly produced hens [11].

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) phenomenon due to dual pressures from supply and demand, leading to a significant decline in egg prices despite the traditional peak season approaching [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 29, the main contract for egg futures closed at 2939 yuan/ton, a nearly 11% drop from July 31, indicating a bearish outlook for egg prices driven by supply factors [2][3]. - The average egg price in major production areas was reported at 3.22 yuan/kg, while in major sales areas it was 3.15 yuan/kg, marking a six-year low [3]. - Increased production capacity due to a long-term profitable environment for egg-laying hens has led to a sustained growth in egg supply, with the number of laying hens exceeding 1.3 billion [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The current bearish sentiment in the market is exacerbated by a slow pace of downstream procurement, as consumer demand is affected by a late Mid-Autumn Festival and a decline in restaurant consumption [3][4]. - The egg futures market has seen a record high in positions held, indicating a significant concentration of capital that amplifies price declines [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be a temporary increase in demand due to school and festival preparations, it is unlikely to offset the high supply pressure [5][6]. Future Outlook - The egg market is expected to face continued pressure, with any potential rebound in prices being limited due to high inventory levels and the need for time to digest cold storage eggs [5][6]. - The reduction in the age of hens being culled is a positive sign, but historical data indicates that a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics will take longer to materialize [6].