近几年蛋鸡存栏量逐步攀升，鸡蛋供应基数持续增加，当对外销售路径承压、需求提升不易情况下，压 力则会反向作用于供应内部，引起饲养品种转变、大小码价差缩减等养殖端的破局。 目前来看，养殖单位补栏谨慎，出栏积极性提升，去产能拐点或即将出现，后期供应端对鸡蛋价格的压 力或存缓解可能。但基于供应基数较大，因此预计今年三四季度鸡蛋价格水平仍将低于往年同期。 供应仍处上升周期，鸡蛋市场"量增价减" 根据数据分析，鸡蛋月均价与产蛋鸡存栏量具有中度负相关关系。从2019-2025年产蛋鸡存栏量趋势变 化来看，目前存栏量处在新周期的上升阶段，因此随着鸡蛋供应压力逐步加码，鸡蛋价格震荡走低。截 至8月22日，7月、8月鸡蛋月均价分别为2.89元／斤、3.04元／斤，同比跌幅分别为33.41%、36%。 进入2025年，单斤鸡蛋的饲料成本呈现低位反弹趋势，较去年成本降低1.63%，养殖单位成本压力不 大，但年内鸡蛋价格走低，导致单斤鸡蛋利润多呈亏损状态，即使三季度需求迎来旺季，也仍未扭转养 殖亏损局面，养殖单位亏损周期拉长。 卓创资讯监测显示，截至8月22日单斤鸡蛋月均饲料成本3.04元，环比增幅0.33%，同比增幅1.33%；单 ...

今年鸡蛋市场"旺季不旺"，蛋价"跌跌不休"。市场人士认为，目前蛋鸡养殖行业面临供给充裕、需求乏 力、成本竞争加剧的格局，需要重点关注利润对产能的传导。四季度鸡蛋价格难以出现明显好转，而现 货价格持续低迷或将导致补栏情绪低迷，有利于明年上半年鸡蛋价格的修复。 ...

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: General Demand Performance, Weak Egg Price Trend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side pressure is significant, and demand is general, leading to a decline in egg prices. The rebound of egg prices earlier led to the release of cold-storage eggs, which impacted prices. Although the September contract is a peak-season contract, the current spot price is falling, suggesting potential further decline in futures prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.33 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.31 yuan per catty from last Friday. The terminal demand at the beginning of the week did not improve significantly, the number of newly opened production continued to increase, and the continuous high-temperature weather in the northern region put pressure on egg prices. After the egg price fell, market confidence was frustrated, and the inventory in the producing areas increased. The price of old hens fell this week as the breeding side's confidence in the future was frustrated, and the terminal demand was weak [5]. 2. Supply Analysis - The shipment volume in the producing areas decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg-laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of July 25 was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of July 24 was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. In July, the inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, the approximate inventory of laying hens in production from August to November 2025 is estimated to be 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10]. 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little this week. As of August 7, the corn price was around 2,395 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price fell to 3,008 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2,579 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan per catty. The egg price fluctuated weakly this week, and the breeding profit decreased. As of August 7, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was -0.26 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty from the previous week, and the expected profit of laying hen breeding on August 1 was 13.94 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 4. Demand Analysis - The egg price was weak this week. The terminal demand was weak in the first half of the week, and the market mainly cleared inventory. As the egg price hit a new low, there was a sentiment of bottom-fishing and stockpiling in the downstream market, slightly driving the market volume. The sales volume in the selling areas decreased month-on-month. As of August 7, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7,529 tons, a decrease of 4.6% from last week. The inventory in the national egg market increased month-on-month. The number of newly opened laying hens increased significantly this week, and the supply of small-sized eggs increased, leading to a price decline. The demand decreased under the high-temperature and humid weather, and the inventory levels of all links increased. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will decrease next month. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 12 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week, and the pork price index changed little [16]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Options**: Sell put options [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts on inventory, chicken culling, cold-storage eggs, egg-laying hen breeding, price spreads, and basis, including historical data on the inventory of laying hens in production, the number of chicken culling, the price of laying hen chicks, and various price spreads and basis [22][23][30].

Core Insights - The price of eggs has shown a strong upward trend, increasing from 2.89 yuan per jin to 3.31 yuan per jin, representing a cumulative increase of nearly 15% during the period from July 17 to July 24 [1] Price Overview - As of July 24, egg prices in various regions are as follows: - Yantai, Shandong: 6.90 yuan per jin - Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6.70 yuan per jin - Shanghai: 6.90 yuan per jin - Fuzhou, Fujian: 7.00 yuan per jin - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 3636.00 yuan per 500 kg, with a slight decrease of 0.27% [2] Market Conditions - As of July 17, the average age of broiler chickens is 505 days, which is one day later than the previous week and four days earlier than the previous month - The monthly inventory of laying hens as of the end of June was approximately 1.34 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] Analysis Perspective - According to Hualian Futures research, high temperatures have led to a decline in egg production rates, with farmers showing strong price support sentiment - The market is experiencing smooth sales as southern regions enter the plum rain season, leading to tighter supply in some areas and a noticeable increase in market prices - However, there are no favorable demand signals, and in the medium term, the high inventory of laying hens suggests ample supply, with short-term pressure levels around 3713 yuan [4]

Group 1 - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee, along with other departments, has indicated that July will see the full onset of the flood season in China, leading to a more complex and severe natural disaster risk situation [1] - The Ministry of Commerce is closely monitoring the rain and flood conditions in southern China and has increased the organization of supplies to ensure emergency preparedness, reporting that the market for essential goods remains stable and well-supplied [1] - As of July 4, the wholesale prices of essential food items such as grain, edible oil, pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits have remained stable compared to the previous week, with egg prices dropping over 40% since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - During the plum rain season, egg prices are expected to remain weak due to high temperatures and humidity, which complicate storage; producers are likely to sell quickly, putting further pressure on prices [2] - The national layer hen stock reached a historical high, with 98 new projects planned for 2024, including 43 projects with over one million hens, indicating ongoing expansion in the egg production industry [2] - In May, the national layer hen stock was approximately 1.334 billion, with a projected increase to 1.34 billion in June, which historically leads to significant losses in the industry when stocks exceed 1.35 billion [3] Group 3 - The egg price outlook for the second half of the year suggests continued supply pressure due to increasing layer hen stocks and seasonal price declines during the plum rain season, with potential for a rebound in August-September if significant culling occurs [3] - The traditional peak consumption season may be affected if the expected culling does not materialize, leading to a situation where the peak season does not see the usual demand [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg supply pressure has been alleviated, and the egg price may bottom out. In the second half of the year, especially during the Mid - Autumn Festival in August and September, the egg price is expected to strengthen. However, the specific increase in egg price depends on whether the number of culled chickens can remain high. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the increase will be relatively large; otherwise, it will be limited. [5][24][40] - For the futures market, the downward space of the futures price is relatively limited as the profit per catty of eggs is in a loss or flat state. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if not, the contracts may fluctuate slightly stronger. [5][42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In 2025, the spot price of eggs was weak. Due to the high pre - stocking volume, the supply was loose in the first half of the year. Combined with the average feed cost, the egg price was low. It started at 3.1 yuan/jin and dropped to around 2.65 yuan/jin. The futures contracts also showed a weak trend, and the August contract dropped to around 3455. [4][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The downward space of the futures price is limited because of the loss or flat profit per catty of eggs. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, consider building long positions in the far - month August and September contracts in mid - to late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, the spot price of eggs was weak in 2025. The supply was loose due to high pre - stocking, and the futures contracts also performed weakly. [10] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Spot**: The spot price of eggs trended weakly in the first half of the year. The average price in the main production areas dropped from around 3.2 yuan/jin to around 2.62 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas from 3.38 yuan/jin to 2.84 yuan/jin. The increase in the number of culled chickens recently has alleviated the supply pressure. [11] - **Supply**: In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 will be approximately 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively. The proportion of large, medium, and small eggs in June was 40.67% (medium - low level in the same period over the years), 42.28% (medium level), and 17.05% (medium - high level) respectively. The egg - laying rate in June was about 90.98%, at a low level in the same period over the years, and is expected to decline with the hot weather. In May, the monthly egg - laying chick hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% month - on - month decrease and a 1% year - on - year increase. The current weekly market price of egg - laying chicks is 4.06 yuan/feather, a 0.08 - yuan decrease from the previous month. The number of culled chickens increased in June but was still at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. As of June 19, the average culling age was 509 days, at a medium - high level over the years. [11][13][14] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand was okay but declined recently due to the seasonal off - season. As of June 19, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7527 tons, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 20317.1 billion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase, and the catering revenue in May was 457.8 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [22][24] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, at a low level in the same period over the years, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. [24] - **Cost and Profit**: The feed cost changed little in the first half of the year and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In June, the corn price was 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2986 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2591 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.85 yuan/jin for eggs. As of June 19, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, at a low level in the same period over the years. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, also at a low level in the same period over the years. [31][33] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price changed little in the first half of the year, and the pork price remained in a low - level shock. As of June 22, the Shouguang vegetable index was 103.73, and as of June 20, the pork price was around 15.72 yuan/kg. The low vegetable and pork prices had a relatively weak substitution demand for eggs. [34] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The current laying - hen inventory is at a high level over the years, but the supply pressure has been alleviated recently. If the market's enthusiasm for culling chickens weakens, the supply side will still face pressure; if the number of culled chickens remains large, the supply pressure will improve. [40] - **Demand**: The short - term demand is average due to the off - season, but in the long - term, the egg price may be boosted by the seasonal peak in the second half of the year. [40] - **Feed Cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs in the first half of 2025 was about 2.8 yuan/jin. The prices of corn and soybean meal changed little, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level, providing certain support for the egg spot price. [40] - **Overall Outlook**: In the second half of the year, the egg price is expected to strengthen, especially in August and September. The specific increase depends on the future number of culled chickens. For the futures market, the downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the number of culled chickens. [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - Recent chicken egg prices in China have rebounded after a prolonged decline, with average prices rising to 7.28 yuan/kg as of June 26, 2023, reflecting a 1.82% increase from the previous week [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in egg prices is attributed to low inventory levels and stimulated consumer demand due to lower prices, despite concerns about the sustainability of this rebound due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [1][3]. - As of June 20, average inventory levels in production and circulation were reported at 0.95 days and 1.04 days, respectively, indicating a decline of approximately 10.38% and 10.34% compared to previous periods [3]. - Analysts predict that the supply of laying hens will continue to increase, with a theoretical growth of 0.75% in laying hen inventory expected in July [4][5]. Seasonal Influences - The traditional low season for chicken eggs typically occurs in June, with high temperatures and humidity affecting storage and quality, leading to a generally pessimistic outlook for the market [3][4]. - The end of the plum rain season in mid-July is anticipated to improve storage conditions, potentially leading to a recovery in prices as demand for replenishment increases [6][7]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Historical data suggests that chicken egg prices tend to rise significantly from the low point during the plum rain season to the peak during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with average increases ranging from 25% to 88% [7]. - Current market conditions indicate that while prices may stabilize at low levels in the short term, a significant rebound is expected post-plum rain season, with potential price peaks estimated between 3.8 yuan and 4.1 yuan per jin [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level this week, but the overall storage volume was small and the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, coupled with the plum rain season in the South, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory reached a new high this year. Although it is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, the reduction in supply is limited, and the demand is weak. The egg price may fall to a new low this year [7]. - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is currently at a historical high, and the supply of eggs is under pressure in the medium term. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term but may have bottom support in the second half of the year [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - level Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the storage volume was small [7]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The number of newly opened - production chickens was greater than the number of old chickens leaving the market. In June, the number of newly opened - production chickens is expected to decline slightly, and the laying rate of laying hens will decrease. The overall demand is in the off - season, and the egg price is under pressure [7]. Strategy Views and Outlook - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is at a high level, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the support at the 3600 level of the 09 contract and consider going long lightly in case of an over - decline [9][10]. - The 08 contract has a large premium. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, with a short - term pressure level of 3700 [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level. The average price was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. 3.3 Supply Side - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. It is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, and the supply pressure may ease [29]. - In May, the total sales volume of chicken fry was 45.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66%. Although the sales volume decreased month - on - month, it was still at a high level. The supply pressure of eggs remains unchanged, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure [35]. - Due to low egg prices and rising feed costs, the enthusiasm for chicken culling has increased, but the number of cullable chickens is limited this month. The total culling volume of old hens this week was 539,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44% [40][43]. 3.4 Demand Side - The demand for eggs shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, and the highest level of the year in mid - to - late September [60]. - Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the terminal replenishment is cautious, and the overall demand lacks positive support [7]. 3.5 Cost Side - Corn prices are rising due to reduced supply and trade frictions. Although the supply of soybean meal will be alleviated, the feed cost of laying - hen farming is expected to rise in the medium term, providing bottom support for the egg price [65]. - The egg cost line is an important driving factor for price changes, and the egg price, cost, and profit are generally positively correlated [69]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - This week, the cost of laying - hen farming was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.85%. The farming profit was - 0.82 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty, a decline of 8.89% [76].

Group 1 - The main contract for egg futures experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 2810.00 yuan, with a current price of 2823.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.67% [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that the egg price may continue to decline due to stable supply and reduced demand from downstream markets, with expectations of increased inventory levels [1] - The mid-term perspective indicates an increase in the number of laying hens, which, combined with seasonal factors, may lead to further downward pressure on egg prices [1] Group 2 - Short-term demand for eggs is supported by increased replenishment in channels and cold storage, but the arrival of the rainy season may weaken demand and put pressure on prices [2] - The long-term outlook suggests that after a period of poor profits in the breeding sector, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks may decline, potentially leading to reduced new production in the fourth quarter [2] - The strategy recommendation includes a cautious approach to trading, with a focus on short-selling during price rebounds, particularly monitoring key resistance levels for future contracts [2]

Core Insights - The egg prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and supply pressure, with average prices in major production areas showing a downward trend [1][4] - As of June 3, the national average egg prices in various regions are reported, with notable prices in Shandong at 6.90 yuan/kg and Fujian at 7.00 yuan/kg [2] - The futures market shows a decline in egg futures, with the main contract closing at 2897.00 yuan/500 kg, down 1.16% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of May, the monthly sales volume of eggs in major consumption areas is 37,200 tons, a decrease of 5.68% compared to April [3] - The inventory levels in the production and circulation stages are at historically low levels, with production inventory at 0.98 days and circulation inventory at 1.07 days [3] - The number of laying hens as of May 2025 is 1.334 billion, showing a slight increase compared to previous months, indicating a high supply level [3] Market Dynamics - The firm corn prices are providing cost support for egg production, while the current egg prices are at a low level for the year, leading to replenishment demand in the market [4] - High levels of laying hen inventory and increased production pressure from newly added hens are contributing to a sufficient supply of eggs [4] - The impact of hot and humid weather is raising storage costs for eggs, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream distributors [4]