1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the domestic cotton market, the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season provides cost and supply support. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season with increased replenishment demand and high - level downstream enterprise operations offer upward impetus. However, the release of sliding - duty quotas, large import volume due to the wide price gap between domestic and international cotton, and weak downstream spinning profits may limit price increases. The overall price range is expected to be around 14,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and if the reduction in planting area exceeds expectations, prices may rise further [1][33]. - In the international market, the global supply - demand pattern is tightening. Drought in the US cotton - producing areas and the high probability of El Niño weather may lead to a decrease in cotton production. The current low price of US cotton and China's purchase demand will support international cotton prices [2][33]. - The operation suggestion is to view Zhengzhou cotton from a medium - term oscillatory perspective and mainly go long on dips [3][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated upward, rising first and then falling. The main contract price ranged from 14,500 to 15,765 yuan/ton. The reduction of inventory, increased demand, and concerns about new - season supply were the core supports, while the quota was only a short - term disturbance [5]. - **International Market**: In the first quarter, US cotton showed a strong and upward - trending oscillation. The ICE cotton futures main contract price ranged from 60 to 68.71 cents/pound. The drought in the main - producing areas and the expectation of a supply shortage were the core supports [6]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - **Domestic Production**: As of March 24, 2026, the inspected cotton quantity was 33,652,621 bales, with a weight of 7.6005 million tons, higher than the expected 7.4 million tons. The national cotton - planting intention area in 2026 showed a slight decline, with different situations in different regions. Xinjiang plans to reduce the planting area, and the actual reduction will affect cotton prices [8][10]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises recovered rapidly. By March 20, the operating rates reached 61.9% and 60.5% respectively, and the finished - product inventories of these enterprises decreased to 14.8 days and 24.8 days [12][15]. - **Imports**: From January to February 2026, China's cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year. The state issued 300,000 tons of sliding - duty quotas, which is expected to keep imports stable and regulate the import order [17][19]. - **Exports**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 17.6% year - on - year. Multiple factors contributed to this growth, but the subsequent export growth may face challenges [21]. 3.3 International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Situation**: According to the USDA's March report, the US cotton supply - demand situation remained stable, while the global market showed an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and a slight increase in inventory pressure [25]. - **Northern Hemisphere Planting**: In the 2026/27 season, the cotton - planting intentions in the US and India showed different trends. Weather conditions and crop price ratios are key factors affecting planting. The US may face drought and El Niño risks, while India may face pest risks [28][29]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: The reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang provides support, but factors such as quota release and import volume may limit price increases. The overall price range is around 14,500 - 16,000 yuan/ton [1][33]. - **International Market**: The global supply - demand pattern is tightening, and factors such as drought and El Niño may lead to a decrease in production. China's purchase demand will support international cotton prices [2][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Treat Zhengzhou cotton from a medium - term oscillatory perspective and mainly go long on dips [3][34].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: Due to the continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the potential increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugarcane for sugar production in Brazil's new crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential positive factors for raw sugar in the future, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. - Cotton: The issuance of an additional 300,000 tons of import quotas is a short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the downstream operating rate has returned to the level of the same period last year. The overall view is neutral, and the subsequent price trend depends on the downstream operating conditions. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [5][7]. - Soybeans and Protein Meal: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Oils: Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving up oil prices. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on oils in the medium term [13]. - Eggs: The egg production capacity is on a downward trend, but the absolute supply level remains high. The supply reduction is expected to be delayed. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contracts on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near term and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the long term [17]. - Pigs: Considering the still - high weight and theoretical slaughter volume, although the inventory of small farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is insufficient under the current fat - to - standard price difference, providing limited support for the market. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term futures contracts and wait and see in the long - term contracts due to high premium [20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Production Data**: In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, as of February 28, India's cumulative sugar production was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that India's net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 29.3 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton reduction from the second prediction but a 3.17 - million - ton year - on - year increase. As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 181.29 million tons due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand [2]. Cotton - **Supply - Demand Data**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 tons of processing trade import quotas with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; the export to China in the same period was 1,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [4]. Soybeans - **Production and Export Data**: AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.8 million tons, a 3.8 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; the export to China in the same period was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction but a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [8]. Oils - **Industry News**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are prohibited from exporting relevant products before meeting domestic demand. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52%. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but an 860,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. According to MPOB data, Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 90,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; exports were 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 130,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 1.19 - million - ton increase from the same period last year [11]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The national egg price remained stable yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas slightly dropping 0.01 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each level was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with individual prices rising or falling [15][16]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some areas continuing to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.09 yuan to 10.14 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 10.07 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi dropped 0.09 yuan to 9.99 yuan per kilogram. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream pig purchase volume is relatively stable, and farmers' willingness to sell is strong. It is expected that the weak pig price trend will continue in the near future [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the cotton industry is "oscillating." In the short - term, cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish; in the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and there is a need to be vigilant against correction risks [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is that the price difference between domestic and international cotton is starting to converge, and both domestic and international cotton prices are running strongly. The supply of cotton is expected to shrink, with short - term supply remaining tight. Demand has a complex situation, with domestic demand gradually recovering but overall demand repair affected by weak external demand. The overall inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and various factors such as basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies all have a certain impact on cotton prices [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Internationally, the production of the US and Brazil has been raised, but there are still short - term supply disturbances (delayed new cotton listing in India and farmers' reluctance to sell). Domestically, the purchase of Xinjiang cottonseed is almost over, ginning is nearing completion, old - crop cotton inventory is at a low level, combined with the expected structural reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in the 26/27 season, and the supply contraction expectation is clear, with short - term supply remaining tight [3]. - **Demand**: Globally, the consumption in the 2025/26 season has been slightly reduced, and there is pressure on external demand as the demand in major consumer countries such as Pakistan and India has declined. Domestically, the operating rate of downstream textile mills has rebounded to 64.6% (a 6% month - on - month increase), orders have improved, domestic demand is gradually recovering, but weak external demand drags down the overall demand repair [3]. - **Inventory**: Globally, the ending inventory in the 2025/26 season has been raised to 70.39 million bales, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has risen to 64.4%. Domestically, the commercial inventory has decreased slightly year - on - year, Xinjiang cotton has been transferred to the inland, and port inventory has increased. The overall inventory is at a low level in recent years [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: (1) The basis of Xinjiang spot cotton has narrowed compared with the previous period. (2) This week, the far - month contracts of Zhengzhou cotton have strengthened, showing a structure of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The inversion of the price difference between domestic and international cotton has eased, and the price advantage of imported cotton has weakened [3]. - **Profit**: For cotton farmers, the planting profit has recovered but is still below the cost line. For textile mills, raw material costs are high, cotton yarn prices are rising steadily, but profits are still thin. Some enterprises are at the break - even point, and their purchasing willingness is cautious [3]. - **Valuation**: Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is close to the planting cost line and is supported by tight supply. Internationally, the far - month contracts of ICE cotton have reached a new high this year, and the valuation is supported by demand expectations and supply disturbances, being at a neutral level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Domestically, pro - growth policies boost domestic demand, and additional import quotas are issued to adjust domestic supply and demand. Internationally, under the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the global monetary policy tends to be loose, the risk appetite for commodities has increased, and geopolitical disturbances intensify market volatility, indirectly supporting cotton prices [3]. - **Investment View**: Short - term: Constrained by foreign imports, tight domestic supply, and gradually improving downstream demand, cotton prices are oscillating and slightly bullish. Medium - to - long - term: The upside space is limited, and there is a need to be vigilant against correction risks [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage trading, the current recommendation is to wait and see. The risks to be concerned about include domestic regulatory policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **US Textile and Apparel Imports**: There are multiple charts showing the monthly import values of US clothing and accessories from various countries such as the world, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, China, and Vietnam from 2020 - 2025, indicating the reconstruction of the US textile and apparel import pattern [5][6]. - **EU Textile and Apparel Imports**: There are multiple charts presenting the monthly import values of EU clothing and accessories from countries like Vietnam, the US, China, and Bangladesh from 2020 - 2025 [13][17]. - **Domestic Cotton Processing and Sales Progress**: Charts show the national cotton processing progress, cumulative inspection volume, picking progress, and delivery progress from 2020 - 2025 [20][22]. - **Import Situation**: The import of cotton is restricted, while the import of cotton yarn has increased. There are charts depicting the monthly and cumulative import volumes of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 - 2025 [23][24]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory shows a seasonal increase. Charts display the national cotton bonded - area commercial inventory, industrial inventory, commercial inventory, and Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory from the 20/21 to 25/26 seasons [29][33]. - **Mid - stream Mill Load**: The load of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills is presented in charts from 2018 - 2026 [38]. - **Mid - stream Mill Profit**: The overall profitability of spinning mills has narrowed, and Xinjiang mills are at a break - even point. Charts show the spinning immediate profit and yarn - cotton spot price difference from 2017 - 2026 [40][41]. - **Domestic and International Consumption and Export**: There are multiple charts showing the domestic cumulative and monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles, as well as China's cumulative and monthly export values of clothing and textile yarn and fabrics from 2019 - 2025 [47][53]. - **US Cotton Market**: Charts display the annual processing volume of the US cotton market, the weekly signing and shipping volumes of US upland cotton in the current and next market seasons from 2020 - 2026, and the data related to China's signing and shipping of US upland cotton [62][64]. - **International Cotton Exports**: Charts show the export volumes of Brazilian cotton and its exports to China, as well as the export volume and value of Australian cotton to China from 2020 - 2025 [77][81]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis and Spread**: Charts present the basis of Zhengzhou cotton's 05 and 09 contracts, the spread between 09 - 01 and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 - 2026 [85][86]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: Charts show the position volumes of Zhengzhou cotton's 05 and 09 contracts from the 20/21 to 25/26 seasons [93][94]. - **US Cotton Fund Position**: Charts display the net - long position volumes of managed funds in US cotton futures and the combined net - long position volumes of futures and options, as well as their long - position ratios from 2018 - 2026 [101][103]. - **US Cotton Month - to - Month Spread**: The chart shows the 03 - 05 month - to - month spread of US cotton from 2021 - 2026 [106].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Demand Shows Decent Performance, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Upward Bias [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly upward - biased trend in the short term. The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and investors can consider building long positions on dips [8][25][38] Summary by Directory Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. As of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decrease. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 100.4%, a 4% year - on - year decrease, and that of Pima cotton was 103.8%, a 14% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 million tons, slightly higher than the production forecast of 3.03 million tons [8] - **US Cotton Growing Conditions**: As of March 10, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 229, a decrease of 3 from the previous week and an increase of 97 year - on - year. The drought index in Texas was 253, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and an increase of 65 year - on - year. Drought in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to continue from March to May, and may intensify in the central - western regions and ease in the eastern regions [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - **CFTC**: As of March 6, the number of unpriced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 from the previous week, or 30,000 tons [8] - **Brazil**: The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that this year's cotton production in Brazil will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The output of Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season [8] - **Global**: According to the latest USDA March global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of new cotton was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a 12.03% year - on - year increase. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a 12.06% year - on - year increase. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2078 million tons, a decrease of 59,800 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [26] - **Demand Side**: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 76%, a 3.83% increase from the previous week [26] - **Overall**: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the downstream industries resuming work, there are certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support [26] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current price difference between domestic and international cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is around 2,900 yuan/ton (about 3,900 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff), which is conducive to imports. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors. The global cotton production in the USDA annual report was adjusted down by 3%. Overall supply is relatively tight, and if consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved [38] - **Single - side**: It is expected that the US cotton price will fluctuate slightly upward in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. Investors can consider building long positions on dips and avoid chasing high prices [38] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [38] - **Options**: Wait and see [38] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price Difference**: The report provides historical data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton under the 1% tariff, as well as the price difference between the September and January contracts [41][42] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory [44] - **Basis**: It presents the basis data of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton and the basis of cotton yarn C32S spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the expected decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season and the narrowing of the supply - demand pattern are expected to provide some support for US cotton prices, which in turn will drive up the domestic cotton prices. In the short term, the market has cooled down, and there is insufficient support for the upward movement of US cotton at the macro - level. In the medium to long term, the ICE US cotton futures price still has room to rise, but it will mainly fluctuate in the short term [11]. - In the domestic market, there are both bullish and bearish factors, but it is still worth looking forward to. In the medium to long term, there is still some room for the cotton price to rise, but there may be a slight short - term correction. The resonance between domestic and foreign cotton prices may increase [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The expected cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decline year - on - year in the world, the US, and China. The global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease; the US cotton production is expected to be 2.96 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease; and China's cotton production is expected to be 6.97 million tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [6]. - As of February 26, the national cotton inspection volume was 7.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 948,300 tons [6]. - The national cotton inspection volume was about 7.48 million tons, with Xinjiang's inspection volume at 7.1057 million tons as of February 26 [40]. - The sales rate and sales volume of lint cotton are much higher than the same period last year. As of February 12, 2026, the cotton sales volume was 4.991 million tons, and the sales rate was 67.40% [42]. Demand - After the Spring Festival, the operating load of textile enterprises has continued to recover. The inferred monthly cotton consumption based on inventory data remains at a relatively high level [7]. - In December, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to December were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [7]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive load of yarn was 39.08%, a week - on - week increase of 14.3 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 43.02%, a week - on - week increase of 23.85 percentage points [7]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 32.7%, a week - on - week increase of 10.35 percentage points; the load of all - cotton grey cloth was 30.25%, a week - on - week increase of 9.12 percentage points [7]. - US clothing retail sales remain strong. In December, the monthly retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were $27.337 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [52]. - The operating rate of Vietnamese textile enterprises increased month - on - month. As of February 27, the weekly operating rate of Vietnam was 68.5%, a month - on - month increase of 8.5 percentage points [55]. Import and Export - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff has continued to widen. As of February 26, the price difference was 3,798 yuan/ton, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [8]. - As of the week of February 12, the total US cotton export contract volume was 1.985 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,000 tons, and China's contract volume was 98,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93,000 tons [8]. - In December, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $13.412 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10.19%; the cumulative export from January to December was $151.182 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [8]. - In December, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, reaching a new high in the year; the monthly import value of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, reaching a new high in the same period in the past five years [70][75]. - The import cotton price index strengthened month - on - month. As of February 26, the price index of medium - grade imported cotton for 1% quota port pick - up price was 12,883 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.93% [83]. Inventory - The commercial cotton inventory decreased more than expected month - on - month. As of mid - February, China's commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 285,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 177,400 tons [9]. - The raw material inventory of spinning enterprises decreased slightly, and the raw material inventory of weaving factories increased slightly, while the finished - product inventory gradually accumulated [9]. - As of the week of February 27, the comprehensive yarn inventory was 23.63 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days; the comprehensive staple - fiber cloth inventory was 32.78 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 days [9]. - The US clothing wholesaler inventory increased month - on - month for two consecutive months. In December 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories wholesaler inventory was $28.561 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year increase of 2.31% [86]. Price - The center of the cotton spot price has significantly moved up. As of February 27, 2026, the cotton prices in China, Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang all increased month - on - month, with increases ranging from 4.76% to 6.81% [24]. - The cotton basis increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the basis was 1,318 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 209 yuan [26]. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was 0 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan [28]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the price difference was 3,959 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 634 yuan [32]. - The closing price of cotton yarn and the price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn increased month - on - month. As of February 27, 2026, the closing price of cotton yarn was 21,245 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.71%; the price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 21,870 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.58% [34]. - The cotton yarn basis fluctuated and declined. As of February 27, 2026, the cotton yarn basis was 625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan [37]. Option - The historical volatility of cotton options has increased significantly [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the deepening of drought in the US cotton - growing areas, the expected decline in Brazil's cotton production, and the contraction of China's cotton - planting intention, the supply of global cotton in the 2026/27 season is expected to tighten. The US cotton signing and sales are currently in the peak period, with a high possibility of achieving the export target. The net position of CFTC funds has rebounded from the bottom. Combined with the expectation of Trump's visit to China, there is an upward space for US cotton. After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou cotton has broken through the previous high but is still restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. In the short term, it may enter a volatile adjustment trend again, but in the medium and long term, the price is expected to be positive supported by the contraction of planting area, good monthly apparent consumption, and the year - on - year decline in commercial inventory levels. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in cotton - planting intention and the policy guidance of the Xinjiang cotton target price from 2026 - 2028. The strategy is to buy on dips and purchase call options. The important variables are macro - policies, industrial policies, and cotton - planting intention [7][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In February, the main contract of US cotton rebounded from a low level, rising 1.7% monthly. The external market trend in February was mainly boosted by the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum report, which estimated that global cotton production would decline and consumption would increase in the 2026/27 season, with the global ending inventory decreasing by 5.2% year - on - year, and the US cotton inventory decreasing by 4.5% year - on - year but remaining above 4 million bales. Recently, the signing progress of US cotton sales has been good, and the current grain - to - cotton ratio is slightly lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the intention area report. In the same month, Zhengzhou cotton broke through the pre - festival trading range, with a monthly increase of 4.6%. The strengthening of the external market during the festival narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, and the resistance level of Zhengzhou cotton continued to move up. At the same time, the tariff level may decline after the Trump administration replaces IEEPA with Article 122, and the demand is expected to be good as it is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season after the festival [9][11]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand Situation - The US Agricultural Outlook Forum report predicts that in the 2026/27 season, global cotton production will decrease by 3.2% year - on - year to 116 million bales, consumption will reach 120 million bales, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year, and the global ending inventory of cotton is expected to be 71.2 million bales, a decrease of 5.2% year - on - year. Among them, US cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decline by 2.3% year - on - year to 13.6 million bales, exports will increase by 1.7% year - on - year to 12.2 million bales, and the US cotton ending inventory is expected to decline by 4.5% year - on - year to 4.2 million bales, remaining at a moderately high inventory level after the decline. Due to the decline in both planting area and yield per unit, China's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline by 8.6 to 32 million bales year - on - year, consumption is expected to increase by 0.8% year - on - year to 39.3 million bales, and China's cotton ending inventory is expected to decline by 1.0% year - on - year to 36 million bales [13]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 National Cotton Farmers' Cotton - Planting Intention - In January 2026, the Cotton Farmers' Branch of the China Cotton Association conducted a second survey on the cotton - planting intention of 1,805 fixed - point farmers in 10 provinces and municipalities and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The results showed that the national cotton - planting intention area in 2026 was 44.583 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous period; among them, the area in Xinjiang was 40.831 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous period. The cotton - planting income in Xinjiang is relatively stable. The No. 1 Central Document in 2026 clearly states that the cotton target price policy will continue to be improved. Since January, cotton prices have mainly risen, and more than 90% of farmers still choose to grow cotton. However, due to the unclear implementation details of the new round of price levels and cotton - planting area adjustments, the enthusiasm of a small number of cotton farmers has declined compared with the previous year, and the intention area has slightly decreased. In the mainland, due to the low purchase price, the decrease in the area of inter - cropping crops with cotton, and the high cost of cotton - planting, the proportion of farmers choosing to reduce the area has increased, but those who remain unchanged and those who are hesitant still account for the majority. Among the surveyed cotton farmers in the country, the proportion of those with unchanged intention is the highest, at 69.6%, those who are hesitant account for 21.8%, and those who plan to reduce and increase the area account for 5.8% and 2.8% respectively [15]. 3.3.2 Cotton Purchase and Processing Situation - As of March 1, 2026, a total of 1,099 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton season processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The national cumulative inspection was 33,138,040 bales, a total of 7.4803 million tons, which was the same as the previous day and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 32,687,807 bales, a total of 7.3795 million tons, the same as the previous day; the inspection volume in the mainland was 279,698 bales, a total of 62,200 tons [17]. 3.3.3 Inventory Situation - Statistical data shows that the commercial inventory of cotton in mid - February was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons compared with the end of last month; the industrial inventory of cotton in mid - February was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 28,200 tons compared with the end of last month. From the perspective of the graph trend, the current commercial inventory of cotton has reached the annual peak and is turning to a consumption trend. The cotton consumption this year is better than the same period last year, and the current ending inventory has changed from slightly higher year - on - year to slightly lower year - on - year. The industrial inventory level of cotton is rising steadily, with downstream enterprises replenishing stocks before the festival, and the expansion of production capacity supports the demand for raw materials. In February, the yarn inventory index was 22.95 days, a decrease of 2.87 days compared with the previous month; the grey fabric inventory index in February was 32.58 days, the same as the previous month [18]. 3.3.4 Cotton Import Volume - In December 2025, the import volume was 177,300 tons, an increase of 41,500 tons year - on - year (135,900 tons) and an increase of 58,600 tons month - on - month (118,700 tons); from January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.0659 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.2%, a decrease of 1.5443 million tons year - on - year (2.6102 million tons); in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import volume was 480,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%, an increase of 12,900 tons year - on - year (467,200 tons) [20]. 3.3.5 Textile Enterprises' Processing Situation - According to the statistics of the Cotton Textile Information Network, as of February 27, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 34.8 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared with last week; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.9 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with last week; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 10.2 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with last week; the cotton grey fabric inventory was 36.5 days, the same as last week. As of February 27, the yarn load index in China was 43.3%, an increase of 27.1% compared with last week; the grey fabric load index in China was 41.6%, an increase of 27.7% compared with last week. In February, pure cotton yarn enterprises resumed work after the Spring Festival, mainly maintaining stockpiling and previous orders. The trading center shifted up by 200 - 500, and the trading of high - count yarn was good, with the actual cash flow performing well. The pure cotton grey fabric market mainly focused on resuming work, and it is expected that the market trading will increase after the Lantern Festival, and the quotation has been slightly increased [22]. 3.3.6 Textile Demand Situation - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 1.5215 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Among them, the retail sales of clothing from January to December were 1.1045 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In December 2025, the export value of textile and clothing was 26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export value of textile and clothing was 293.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. From the perspective of the textile and clothing import data of the United States, the European Union, and Japan, in December 2025, the cumulative import volume of textile and clothing in the European Union was 1.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.0%; in December 2025, the import volume of textile and clothing in the United States was 6.9 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.7%; in December 2025, the import volume of textile and clothing in Japan was 210,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Overall, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic consumption in December narrowed, but domestic consumption still had support; the external demand consumption in the fourth quarter was differentiated. The monthly import of the European market increased year - on - year, performing better than last year, the US market had a continuous year - on - year decline for four months with an enlarged decline, and the demand in the Japanese market was not significantly affected [35]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook - The content is the same as the core viewpoints of the report, including the macro situation, supply and demand situation, views, strategies, and important variables [7][48].

1. Report Information - Report Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure at high levels with a differentiated trend. The spot cotton price index for grade 328 has increased, and the basis difference in Xinjiang shows certain characteristics. The trading of pure - cotton yarn has not fully recovered, while the operating rate of cotton fabric factories is rising. There is an intention to increase prices, pending downstream acceptance [7][8]. - In the international market, the drought index in the main cotton - producing areas of the United States has slightly increased, and the drought is expected to continue from February to April. The U.S. grain - to - cotton price ratio is slightly lower than last year, and the cotton - planting area may increase slightly, but the high drought level could lead to a higher abandonment rate. The expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference restricts the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton. In the domestic market, the cumulative inspection volume has increased year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has started to decline. The downstream industry is still recovering after the holiday, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, depending on post - holiday demand, cotton - planting intention reports, and target price policies [9]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton shows a high - level pressured and differentiated trend. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 16,681 yuan/ton, up 352 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotations of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang have certain basis differences. The trading of pure - cotton yarn has not recovered, and some spinning mills have increased prices by 300 - 500 yuan. The operating rate of cotton fabric factories has increased, and they have an intention to increase prices [7][8]. - **International Market**: The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly increased, and the drought is expected to last from February to April. The U.S. grain - to - cotton price ratio is 6.68, slightly lower than last year. There is a possibility of a slight increase in the cotton - planting area, but the high drought level may lead to a higher abandonment rate. The expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference after the holiday restricts the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton [9]. - **Domestic Market**: As of February 25, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume is 747.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%, with Xinjiang accounting for 737.95 million tons. As of mid - February, the domestic commercial cotton inventory is 550.37 million tons, showing a downward trend with a year - on - year decrease of 17.74 million tons. The downstream industry is still recovering after the holiday, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9]. 4.2 Industry News - As of February 25, 2026, in the 2025 cotton year, 1099 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton. The national cumulative inspection volume is 747.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%, with Xinjiang accounting for 737.95 million tons and the inland area accounting for 6.18 million tons [10]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis differences, inventory, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][19][20]

Report Information - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bullish factor of the decline in new cotton area in 2026 has been partially reflected, which is bullish for the price of Zhengzhou Cotton in the long term. Coupled with factors such as the purchase cost of lint cotton and the relatively fast sales progress this year, the support for Zhengzhou Cotton around 14,500 yuan/ton is relatively obvious [4]. - In the short term, there is no strong driving force in the industrial aspect itself, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the medium and long term, the center still has room to move up [4]. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand after the festival and relevant cotton - related policies [4] Summary by Content 1. US Cotton Signing and Export Situation - As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% increase from the previous week, a 5% decrease from the four - week average, and an 11% decrease from the same period last year. Among them, Vietnam signed 12,200 tons, Pakistan 10,900 tons, and China 8,300 tons [5][22]. - In the 2025/26 season, the total signing and sales progress of US cotton is 70%, 15 percentage points slower than the average of the same period in the past four years; the cumulative export shipment progress is 50%, 9 percentage points faster than the average of the same period in the past four years. China's total signing volume is 100,000 tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease, and Vietnam's total signing volume is 590,000 tons, a 56% year - on - year increase [5] 2. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Supply - Demand Report - Due to the lag in sales, the February USDA report reduced the US cotton export forecast by 200,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by the same amount accordingly. It also raised the forecast of China's cotton production by 108,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The overall adjustment is basically in line with market expectations and has little impact on the price trends of ICE and ZCE futures [6] 3. Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Cotton - Since the end of last year, the basis between domestic and foreign cotton has continued to widen. As of this Wednesday, the price difference between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton price index within 1% tariff has reached 3,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the sliding - scale tariff has reached 2,400 yuan/ton. The relatively high domestic - foreign price difference limits the increase of Zhengzhou Cotton [7] 4. Price and Inventory Data - **Cotton and Yarn Price Changes**: - As of this Wednesday, the 328 cotton spot price index is 16,029 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 14,745 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 135 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 1,284 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 118 yuan/ton [49]. - The C32S yarn price index is 21,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn is 20,590 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of - 5 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 930 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 70 yuan/ton [49]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: - This Wednesday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is 2,418 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 156 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton within 1% tariff is 3,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 214 yuan/ton [52]. - The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price is - 37 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [52]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: - This Wednesday, on the futures market, the spread between the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 5,845 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 70 yuan/ton [56]. - The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn is - 1,791 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude is reduced by 36 yuan/ton week - on - week [56]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou Cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 11,969 lots; the total of Zhengzhou Yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 7 lots [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the cotton price will be volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The report does not explicitly provide a traditional investment rating such as "buy", "hold", or "sell" [3]. Core Viewpoints - The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and combined with water resource constraints and food planting requirements, the supply contraction expectation is clear. Although the spinning profit has declined month-on-month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the purchasing intention of yarn mills. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating. The new cotton basis for pre - sale before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years. The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and supply contraction is expected due to water resource constraints and food planting requirements [3]. - **Demand**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which helps maintain the purchasing intention of yarn mills [3]. - **Inventory**: As new cotton is listed in large quantities, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis for pre - sale of new cotton delivered before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week [3]. - **Profit**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the operation of yarn mills [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term cotton price is volatile with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 year is the core theme, and attention should be paid to the extrusion of cotton yarn imports and the implementation rhythm of policies [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **US Textile and Apparel Imports**: The import structure is being re - configured. The report presents the monthly import volume data of US clothing and accessories from multiple countries including the world, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, and China from 2020 - 2025 [5][6][8]. - **EU Textile and Apparel Imports**: Mainly from China and Bangladesh, with a slight year - on - year increase [12]. - **Upstream Supply**: The inspection progress is faster than the same period [20]. - **Imports**: Cotton imports are restricted, while cotton yarn imports are increasing [27]. - **Upstream Inventory**: Seasonally rising [34]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: Finished products are seasonally destocking [42]. - **Mid - stream Factory Load**: The resumption of operation is slow [51]. - **Mid - stream Yarn Mill Profit**: Overall, losses are narrowing, and Xinjiang is profitable [56]. - **Terminal Consumption**: Exports are deteriorating [62]. - **US Cotton Market**: The annual processing volume data from 2020 - 2025 is presented. US cotton exports (signing and shipping) are slightly increasing year - on - year, and exports to China are sporadic. The US textile and apparel inventory is at a high level, and retail sales are increasing year - on - year [80][82][89][94]. - **Brazilian Supply**: The total export volume is increasing, but the proportion of exports to China is decreasing [97]. - **Indian Supply**: The window for importing Indian cotton yarn is open [100]. - **Australian Supply**: Exports to China remain at a high level [104]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Fluctuating at a high level [110]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 05 contract is relatively high year - on - year [120]. - **Managed Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: Data from 2018 - 2026 is presented, including net long positions and long - position ratios [129]. - **US Cotton 03 - 05 Spread**: Data from 2021 - 2026 is presented [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of planting area in the new season and the positive future macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: As of January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast of global cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The January forecast of US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons; India's production decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.7722 million tons, a 194,900 - ton decrease year - on - year; of which, exports to China were 8,800 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 97,400 tons, a 66,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score and a strengthening basis; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton with a +0 score and a profit decrease; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a - 0.5 score and a relatively high domestic premium. The summary was to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, the operation suggestion was to buy on dips, with the core driving logic being the reduction of planting area in the new season and good macro - expectations [11] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: Figures showed the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures presented the 1% tariff and sliding - duty price differences between domestic and foreign cotton [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: Figures showed the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [31] - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: Figures displayed the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit [33] - **Foreign Market Spread**: Figures showed the spreads between different US cotton contracts and the price differences between US and Brazilian cotton and other indices [35][37] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: Figures showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [46] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [48] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Figures showed the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [51] - **National Sales Progress**: Figures presented the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [54] - **Cotton Inventory**: Figures showed the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial and industrial sectors [56] - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: Figures presented the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [58] 3.4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: Figures showed the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - quality rate [62] - **US Production Situation**: Figures presented the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton, as well as the production estimate and planting area [64][65] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Figures presented the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Figures showed the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [70] - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [72] - **Brazilian Export Volume**: Figures showed the export volume estimate and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [74][75] - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Indian cotton [77] - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: Figures showed the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][80]