日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenleil@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 期货从业资格号：F0301101 新棉上市阶段，承压运行 行业 棉花 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃基本面：宏观方面，美联储 9 月 17 日降息 25 基点兑现市场 预期，中美元首通话经贸谈判继续推进。国内市场，8 月 CPI 同比下 ...

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]

内外棉价共振走低，节前离场观望为宜 联系电话： 0531-81678626 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证 券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 姓名：陈 乔 从业资格号：F0310227 交易咨询从业证书号 ：Z0015805 2 025 -9 -28 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 数据来源：iFinD，中泰期货整理 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 供需因子情况 | | | | | | 国际市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 本期 | 环比 | 预期 | 思路 | 备注 | | 全球棉花产量 | （万吨） | 2542 32 . | 2565 42 . | 0 91% . | 上调 | 9月数据全球棉花 | USDA 9月供需报告 | | 全球棉花库存 | （万吨） | 1611 24 . | 1594 45 . | -1 04% . | 上调 | 产量预估较上月上 调 印度和中国棉 ， | USDA 9月供需报告 | | 全球棉花库存 | 消费比 | 62 65 . | 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to a combination of weak demand during the traditional peak season and expectations of abundant new cotton supply in the upcoming year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the average domestic cotton spot price was 14,601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 316 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous month [1]. - The price decline is attributed to the approaching new cotton harvest and the anticipated increase in production, alongside a lack of strong demand from the textile sector [1][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the cotton market is shifting from tight to loose, with new cotton harvests expected to increase supply significantly [2]. - In 2025, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is projected to increase by 8.68%, with total production potentially reaching 7.1 million tons, an increase of approximately 11.29% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Cost and Processing Insights - The processing margins for Xinjiang cotton have been under pressure, leading to a decrease in risk appetite among processors, with seed cotton prices currently at 6.2 yuan/kg [2]. - The estimated cost of cotton lint is around 14,324 yuan/ton, which is lower than the current market price, indicating potential challenges for processors if prices continue to fall [2][4]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand Characteristics - The cotton demand typically exhibits seasonal characteristics, with weaker demand observed in July and August, leading to increased inventory levels among cotton spinning enterprises [5]. - Although there was a slight improvement in demand in September due to the onset of autumn and winter orders, the overall increase in orders remains modest, resulting in cautious purchasing behavior from textile manufacturers [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report | 2025 - 09 - 15 - Author: Li Shue, Cotton Futures Analyst - Report Date: 2025 - 09 - 15 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but the specific rate cut amplitude remains a concern. Market expectations for the rate cut amplitude are somewhat divided based on US economic data [3][32]. - In 2025, the national cotton planting area was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is 43.58 million mu, with a total output estimated at 7.108 million tons [3][32]. - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run [3][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 One - Week Data Overview - The CRB commodity price index closed at 301.72 points on September 12, up 3.95 points from September 5. The Wenhua Commodity Index on September 12 was 163.7, down 1.42 points or 0.86% from September 5 [2][10][31]. - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. The main Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on September 12, down 140 yuan from September 5, with the position decreasing by 6,893 lots to 506,000 lots [2][10][31]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold rose by 40.9 dollars per ounce, crude oil rose by 0.63 dollars per barrel, US soybeans rose by 18.5 cents per bushel, and US corn rose by 10 cents per bushel [10]. - The import cotton CNF quotes of various countries decreased. For example, the US E/MOTM decreased by 0.3 cents per pound, and Brazil M decreased by 0.6 cents per pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On September 12, the raw material prices showed mixed trends compared with September 5. Polyester staple fiber and viscose decreased, while CCI3128 increased and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [14][15]. 3.2.2 Yarn Price Trends - On September 12, the prices of domestic and imported yarns decreased compared with September 5 [18][20][21]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On September 12, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,446 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 1,303 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale duty) was - 143 yuan per ton, also wider than that on September 5 [22]. - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed on September 12 [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of September 12, the Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts were 5,710 lots (280,000 tons), with 0 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 245,000 tons, down from 280,000 tons on September 5 [26]. 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis - On September 12, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,446 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5 [28]. 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - The latest PPI data in the US added complexity to the Fed's policy debate. In China, the consumer market was generally stable in August, and the industrial producer price index improved [30]. - At the end of August, the national cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was slightly decreasing, and the yarn and grey fabric inventories were also decreasing [30][31]. - Technically, the MACD green column of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was shrinking, the DIFF and DEA formed a dead cross, and the KDJ indicator also formed a dead cross, indicating weakening technical indicators [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From August 22 - 28, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton was 55,542 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 35,085 tons, also a 37% increase. The net signing of Pima cotton this year decreased by 62%, and the shipment decreased by 69% [39]. - As of August 26, the CFTC fund net long position was - 71,720 lots, a decrease of 10,706 lots from the previous week [41]. 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross and diverged upward, indicating strengthening technical indicators [42]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - In the medium - and short - term, cotton may continue to be stable and slightly strong, while it may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run. - Downstream textile enterprises can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton when the raw material prices fall [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The cotton market is in an oscillating upward phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. In the short term, the macro - sentiment is improving, demand is seasonally picking up, and social inventory is continuously decreasing, providing phased support. In the medium to long term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving, domestic production may remain high, demand is expected to recover, and the supply - demand situation is also expected to improve. Therefore, the short - term cotton price is supported, and the medium - to - long - term center is expected to move up. It is recommended to be long after adjustments [6]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the pandemic, cotton consumption was affected, while production remained high, leading to inventory accumulation and a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was high, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable. In 2025/26, production is expected to be high, demand may recover, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. According to the August data of the Cotton Information Network, in 2025/26, production is expected to be high, consumption will slightly decrease, imports will recover, and the ending inventory will increase [12]. - **New cotton growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached a recent high. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the new cotton growth was generally in good condition. Some hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has started to be harvested. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The market is in a de - stocking period, and the commercial inventory has significantly decreased. However, the industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is not low. There are concerns about potential tightness in the phased structural supply. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [24][27]. - **Import situation**: The domestic cotton production and sales have a gap, and imported cotton is needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened. In July 2025, the cotton import volume was 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase from the previous month and a 73.2% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 52 million tons, a 74.2% decrease from the same period last year [34][37]. Downstream Demand - **Overall situation**: Overseas interest rate cuts are beneficial to demand, and the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations is expected to improve the foreign trade situation. Domestic policies are boosting the economy, and domestic demand is expected to gradually recover. However, recently, new orders for downstream gauze are insufficient, the operating load is still low, and the finished - product inventory is still at a high level year - on - year, indicating pressure in the industrial chain operation [42]. - **Export and retail data**: In July 2025, the export of textiles and clothing was 2.6766 billion US dollars, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease and a 2.01% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export was 1.0041 billion US dollars, a 0.63% year - on - year increase. In July, the retail sales of clothing, hats, and knitted textiles were 980.1 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year increase and a 24.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 831.1 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [43][45]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - In 2023, the state reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the stabilizing effect of the state reserve cotton on the market [49]. Global Supply and Demand - **Global situation**: In the 2024/26 period, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will significantly recover, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will slightly rise. In 2025/26, global production is expected to decrease, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the harvest period with an optimistic yield expectation, while the major producers in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growing period. Some US cotton - producing areas are experiencing drought, and the sowing in India is behind schedule [58]. - **US situation**: In the 2024/25 period, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to decrease, the yield per unit is expected to decline, but production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but future demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [59]. - **Other countries**: In the 2024/25 period, Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. As of August 30, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 period was 10.847 million hectares, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease [65]. Spread and Basis - The data on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5, 9 - 1, 5 - 9 spreads) and basis (such as 01, 05, 09 basis) are provided, showing their historical trends and fluctuations [73][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The overall market remains under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Since the 2021/22 season, due to the impact of the macro - economy and the pandemic, cotton consumption has been frustrated, while production has remained at a relatively high level. The domestic cotton market has shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the price center has moved down. In the 2024/25 season, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to be optimistic, but demand still faces pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose [13]. - **New Cotton Growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the output reached a high in recent years. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and there was a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Currently, the new cotton is growing well, but attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [19]. - **Inventory Situation**: The 2023/24 season had sufficient cotton supply and a high carry - over inventory. At present, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. However, industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still relatively high. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [23][24]. - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month and 82.1% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3% [34][43]. Downstream Demand - **Demand Status**: Overseas interest - rate cuts are still uncertain, and the US tariff policy is also uncertain. The domestic policy is boosting the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Although downstream orders for gauze have improved recently, overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and the finished product inventory is high [47]. - **Retail and Export Data**: In July 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 9.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 83.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 2.6766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. From January to July, China's textile and clothing exports were 17.041 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [50]. Global Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Balance**: In the 2024/26 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will also recover significantly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to decline, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease [71]. - **US Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, the planting area of US cotton increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the output increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the output is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. Last week, US cotton export sales rebounded [72][73]. Spread and Basis - **Spread**: The report shows the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of cotton, and the data changes over time [100]. - **Basis**: The report presents the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09, and the data changes over time [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unexpectedly positive USDA report, both domestic and international cotton prices rebounded. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, with the operating rate remaining at a historically low level and the pace of cotton inventory reduction slowing down. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the international market, the price of US cotton futures rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 67.48 cents per pound, up 0.84 cents per pound from the previous week, a increase of 1.26%. The December - March spread of US cotton weakened slightly, closing at - 1.55 cents per pound on Friday, down 0.12 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,120 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan per ton from the previous week, a increase of 2.32%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,216 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened significantly, closing at 1,163 yuan per ton on Friday, down 287 yuan per ton from the previous week. The January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, closing at 30 yuan per ton on Friday, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week ending August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production forecast for August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was lowered by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; China's production forecast was raised by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts for Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was lowered by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was lowered by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: No trading strategy suggestions were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, domestic and international spreads, and US cotton spreads, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [26][28][30]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection volume and total processing volume of domestic cotton [39]. - **Imports**: Include the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton, the cumulative and weekly export contract volume of the US to China, and the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton yarn [41][43][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Show the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [47]. - **Sales Progress**: Include the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Inventory**: Include the weekly commercial inventory of domestic cotton, the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills [53][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Show the net positions of CFTC funds and commercial entities [59]. - **US Situation**: Include the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - to - excellent rate, the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume, production and planted area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [61][63][70][72][73]. - **Brazil Situation**: Include the planted area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [75][78][80]. - **India Situation**: Include the planted area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [83][86][88].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in cotton futures prices, with the domestic and international market showing mixed signals and a lack of clear direction [1] - As of Friday's close, cotton futures for the 2509 contract were reported at 14,170 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% [1] - The weighted average price of cotton in the domestic market was 15,549 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 41 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Internationally, the USDA reported a significant drop in weekly cancellations of U.S. cotton contracts for the 2024/25 season, totaling 0.74 million tons, which is a substantial decrease compared to previous weeks [1] - The export volume of cotton products from China for June 2025 was 628,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4.28% [1] - The market analysis suggests that the global cotton supply for the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose due to increased production in Brazil and China, despite a tight domestic inventory situation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: Trade tariffs imposed by the US on most countries increase market uncertainty and may lead to inflation, supporting a rebound in cotton prices. However, the latest USDA export data shows that export pressure persists, constraining the upward movement of cotton prices. The expected increase in supply also exerts pressure on cotton prices [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton prices are rising strongly, supported by tight domestic cotton inventories. Cotton prices are expected to continue to rebound, but the downstream operating rate is still declining, spinning profit losses are increasing, and yarn inventories are accumulating, which is unfavorable for raw material procurement. Cotton prices face pressure from weakening demand and profit - taking by funds at high levels. The issue of Sino - US trade tariffs will gradually increase market attention and price volatility [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview Market Price Situation - Futures closing prices (active) of NYBOT 2 - grade cotton increased from 67.42 to 68.76, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%, and are expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM) rose from 75.28 to 76.38, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract increased from 13,885 to 14,270, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound. The international cotton market is still in a downward trend due to demand concerns, while the domestic market is relatively strong because of lower year - on - year inventories [5]. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) rose from 15,266 to 15,508, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) increased from 13,597 to 13,815, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) rose from 20,490 to 20,740, a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - Cotton spot import profit increased from 1,669 to 1,693, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton futures import profit increased from 288 to 455, a week - on - week increase of 57.99%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton yarn import profit increased from - 1,524 to - 1,393, a week - on - week increase of 8.60%, but it remains weak [5]. - Cotton basis decreased from 1,420 to 1,238, a week - on - week decrease of 12.82%, and is expected to remain strong in the short term but gradually weaken [5]. - Cotton yarn basis decreased from 400 to 220, a week - on - week decrease of 45.00%, and is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [5]. Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, global cotton production increased from 25.5038 million tons to 25.8156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, and the next - year production forecast is upward - adjusted; global cotton inventory increased from 16.7434 million tons to 16.8557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 65.22% to 65.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%, which is bearish for the market. The weekly net sales of US cotton decreased from 255,000 tons to 341,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.08%, which also exerts pressure on cotton prices [6]. - Domestic market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly from 6.54 million tons to 6.758 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%. Commercial cotton inventory decreased from 3.4587 million tons to 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18%. Cotton imports decreased from 40,000 tons to 30,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The downstream operating rate decreased from 68.39% to 68.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. Textile exports increased from $26.20951 billion to $27.314921 billion, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%, but there are concerns about future exports [6]. 2. Spot Market Prices and Spreads - Spot cotton and yarn price trends: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B), the International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM), the China Yarn Price Index, and the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) all showed upward trends [5][13][14][15][16]. - Basis: This week, the cotton basis rebounded, while the cotton yarn basis showed a volatile downward trend [18]. - Cotton and cotton yarn internal - external spreads: The document presents the trends of import cotton prices, internal - external cotton spreads, import yarn prices, and internal - external yarn spreads [22]. 3. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - USDA supply - demand data (July): Global cotton production and ending inventory are upward - adjusted, which is bearish for the market [25]. - International market: US upland cotton export shipments and contracts decreased [28]. 4. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton market: According to the USDA July forecast, both supply and demand are expected to decline [32]. - Domestic cotton market: Commercial inventories are in a destocking state, and port inventories are declining at an accelerated pace [35]. - Domestic cotton market: Cotton imports are slowing down [38]. - Domestic textile enterprises: The operating rate is decreasing, yarn inventories are rising, and cotton raw material inventories are decreasing [41]. - Domestic cotton spinning: Imports have not increased significantly, while textile exports are not bad [44]. 5. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB is slowly appreciating [48].