光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 2026 年 0 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 p 2 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 总 结 供应端：2026/27年度全球、美国、中国棉花产量预计值均同比下降。 1、2026年USDA农业展望论坛中，预计2026/27年度全球棉花产量2526万吨，同比下降3.2%。2、预计2026/27年度美国棉花产量296万吨，同比下降2.3%。3、预计 2026/27年度中国棉花产量697万吨，同比下降8.6%，降幅略超出国内主流预测。4、截至2月26日，全国棉花公检量748万吨，同比增加94.83万吨。 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 总 结 需求端：节后纺织企业开机负荷持续回升，依据库存数据反推棉花消费量当月值维持较高水平。 1、12月，我国服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类商品零售额1661亿元，同比上涨0.6%，1-12月累计零售额为15215亿元，同比上涨3.2%。12月社零同比增长0.9%，1-12月社零累 计同比增长3.7%。2、截至2月27日当周，纱线综合 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 关注政策变动，逢低布多 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenleil@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 月度报告 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃基本面：宏观方面，美最高院裁定特朗普全球关税违法，特 朗普动用 122 条款新推 15%关税，美方宣布特朗普将于 3 月 31 日至 4 月 ...

研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 21.7 | | | | | | | | CN ...

Report Information - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [3] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bullish factor of the decline in new cotton area in 2026 has been partially reflected, which is bullish for the price of Zhengzhou Cotton in the long term. Coupled with factors such as the purchase cost of lint cotton and the relatively fast sales progress this year, the support for Zhengzhou Cotton around 14,500 yuan/ton is relatively obvious [4]. - In the short term, there is no strong driving force in the industrial aspect itself, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the medium and long term, the center still has room to move up [4]. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand after the festival and relevant cotton - related policies [4] Summary by Content 1. US Cotton Signing and Export Situation - As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% increase from the previous week, a 5% decrease from the four - week average, and an 11% decrease from the same period last year. Among them, Vietnam signed 12,200 tons, Pakistan 10,900 tons, and China 8,300 tons [5][22]. - In the 2025/26 season, the total signing and sales progress of US cotton is 70%, 15 percentage points slower than the average of the same period in the past four years; the cumulative export shipment progress is 50%, 9 percentage points faster than the average of the same period in the past four years. China's total signing volume is 100,000 tons, a 35% year - on - year decrease, and Vietnam's total signing volume is 590,000 tons, a 56% year - on - year increase [5] 2. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Supply - Demand Report - Due to the lag in sales, the February USDA report reduced the US cotton export forecast by 200,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by the same amount accordingly. It also raised the forecast of China's cotton production by 108,000 tons to 7.62 million tons. The overall adjustment is basically in line with market expectations and has little impact on the price trends of ICE and ZCE futures [6] 3. Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Cotton - Since the end of last year, the basis between domestic and foreign cotton has continued to widen. As of this Wednesday, the price difference between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton price index within 1% tariff has reached 3,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference under the sliding - scale tariff has reached 2,400 yuan/ton. The relatively high domestic - foreign price difference limits the increase of Zhengzhou Cotton [7] 4. Price and Inventory Data - **Cotton and Yarn Price Changes**: - As of this Wednesday, the 328 cotton spot price index is 16,029 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 14,745 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 135 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 1,284 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 118 yuan/ton [49]. - The C32S yarn price index is 21,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn is 20,590 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of - 5 yuan/ton; the basis between the two is 930 yuan/ton, a weekly expansion of 70 yuan/ton [49]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: - This Wednesday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is 2,418 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 156 yuan/ton; the price difference with the port pick - up price of imported cotton within 1% tariff is 3,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 214 yuan/ton [52]. - The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price is - 37 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [52]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: - This Wednesday, on the futures market, the spread between the main contract of Zhengzhou Yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton is 5,845 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 70 yuan/ton [56]. - The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn is - 1,791 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude is reduced by 36 yuan/ton week - on - week [56]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou Cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 11,969 lots; the total of Zhengzhou Yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 7 lots [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the cotton price will be volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The report does not explicitly provide a traditional investment rating such as "buy", "hold", or "sell" [3]. Core Viewpoints - The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and combined with water resource constraints and food planting requirements, the supply contraction expectation is clear. Although the spinning profit has declined month-on-month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the purchasing intention of yarn mills. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating. The new cotton basis for pre - sale before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years. The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The 26/27 annual cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be structurally reduced, and supply contraction is expected due to water resource constraints and food planting requirements [3]. - **Demand**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which helps maintain the purchasing intention of yarn mills [3]. - **Inventory**: As new cotton is listed in large quantities, commercial inventories are gradually accumulating [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis for pre - sale of new cotton delivered before the end of January next year is 800 - 1100, and the spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton has strengthened this week [3]. - **Profit**: Although the spinning profit has declined month - on - month, there is still cash flow profit in Xinjiang, which is conducive to maintaining the operation of yarn mills [3]. - **Valuation**: The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December 2026, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose in 2026, which boosts the risk appetite for commodities and indirectly supports cotton prices [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term cotton price is volatile with a slight upward trend, and bullish in the long term. The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 year is the core theme, and attention should be paid to the extrusion of cotton yarn imports and the implementation rhythm of policies [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **US Textile and Apparel Imports**: The import structure is being re - configured. The report presents the monthly import volume data of US clothing and accessories from multiple countries including the world, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, and China from 2020 - 2025 [5][6][8]. - **EU Textile and Apparel Imports**: Mainly from China and Bangladesh, with a slight year - on - year increase [12]. - **Upstream Supply**: The inspection progress is faster than the same period [20]. - **Imports**: Cotton imports are restricted, while cotton yarn imports are increasing [27]. - **Upstream Inventory**: Seasonally rising [34]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: Finished products are seasonally destocking [42]. - **Mid - stream Factory Load**: The resumption of operation is slow [51]. - **Mid - stream Yarn Mill Profit**: Overall, losses are narrowing, and Xinjiang is profitable [56]. - **Terminal Consumption**: Exports are deteriorating [62]. - **US Cotton Market**: The annual processing volume data from 2020 - 2025 is presented. US cotton exports (signing and shipping) are slightly increasing year - on - year, and exports to China are sporadic. The US textile and apparel inventory is at a high level, and retail sales are increasing year - on - year [80][82][89][94]. - **Brazilian Supply**: The total export volume is increasing, but the proportion of exports to China is decreasing [97]. - **Indian Supply**: The window for importing Indian cotton yarn is open [100]. - **Australian Supply**: Exports to China remain at a high level [104]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Fluctuating at a high level [110]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 05 contract is relatively high year - on - year [120]. - **Managed Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: Data from 2018 - 2026 is presented, including net long positions and long - position ratios [129]. - **US Cotton 03 - 05 Spread**: Data from 2021 - 2026 is presented [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of planting area in the new season and the positive future macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: As of January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast of global cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The January forecast of US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons; India's production decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.7722 million tons, a 194,900 - ton decrease year - on - year; of which, exports to China were 8,800 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 97,400 tons, a 66,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score and a strengthening basis; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton with a +0 score and a profit decrease; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a - 0.5 score and a relatively high domestic premium. The summary was to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, the operation suggestion was to buy on dips, with the core driving logic being the reduction of planting area in the new season and good macro - expectations [11] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: Figures showed the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures presented the 1% tariff and sliding - duty price differences between domestic and foreign cotton [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: Figures showed the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [31] - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: Figures displayed the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit [33] - **Foreign Market Spread**: Figures showed the spreads between different US cotton contracts and the price differences between US and Brazilian cotton and other indices [35][37] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: Figures showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [46] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [48] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Figures showed the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [51] - **National Sales Progress**: Figures presented the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [54] - **Cotton Inventory**: Figures showed the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial and industrial sectors [56] - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: Figures presented the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [58] 3.4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: Figures showed the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - quality rate [62] - **US Production Situation**: Figures presented the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton, as well as the production estimate and planting area [64][65] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Figures presented the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Figures showed the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [70] - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [72] - **Brazilian Export Volume**: Figures showed the export volume estimate and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [74][75] - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Indian cotton [77] - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: Figures showed the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][80]

Summary of Cotton Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The global cotton supply and demand for the 2025-2026 season is expected to be balanced, with supply around 26 million tons and demand approximately 25.89 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 62.6%, consistent with the averages of the past three to five years [1][2] - China's cotton market in 2026 is projected to be in a tight balance, with production estimated at 7.5 million tons, imports at 1 million tons, and total demand around 8.6 million tons, indicating a slightly tight market [1][2] - The U.S. cotton market is expected to have a relatively loose supply-demand balance due to a lack of demand from China, with exports to China accounting for only 5% of total exports in 2026 [2] Key Points on Cotton Prices - Future cotton prices will be influenced by several factors, including planting area reductions in the U.S., Brazil, China, and Australia, particularly in the U.S. due to low cotton prices and high planting costs [1][3] - The recent increase in cotton prices since November 2023 is driven by low valuations, rapid sales progress, expectations of reduced production in Xinjiang, and strong consumer performance [4][5] - The monthly consumption in China from September to December 2023 has been stable at around 750,000 tons, which, if maintained, would result in an annual consumption of 9 million tons, the best performance since the pandemic recovery [1][5] Factors Affecting Future Price Trends - Key factors to monitor for future cotton price trends include: 1. Changes in planting area policies in Xinjiang, with expectations of a 10% reduction [8] 2. Sustained monthly consumption levels around 750,000 tons [8] 3. National policies regarding stockpiling and quotas [8] 4. The price gap between domestic and international markets affecting import flows [8] U.S. Cotton Market Insights - U.S. cotton prices are currently at a near 10-year low, with the main contract at 64 cents, reflecting a long-term balance in supply and demand [9] - Recent weeks have seen a significant improvement in U.S. cotton export volumes, with exports reaching 84,000 tons in the week ending January 8, 2024, and 90,000 tons in the week ending January 15, 2024, marking the highest levels for this period in a decade [13] Brazilian Cotton Production - Brazil is expected to reduce cotton production in 2026 due to unfavorable price ratios with other crops, leading some farmers to switch to corn or leave land fallow [12] - The increase in planting costs, primarily driven by fertilizer prices, is not expected to significantly impact planting area due to prior purchases [16] Price Projections - If major cotton-producing countries like the U.S., Brazil, Australia, and China reduce their production, and global consumption remains stable or slightly increases, the market could shift from a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2026 to a deficit of 400,000 tons in the following year, potentially driving prices up from 67 cents to 77 cents [18] - Increased purchases of U.S. cotton by China could further elevate prices, potentially reaching 85 cents or higher if trade relations improve [19]

Report Title - The title of the report is "South China Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Oscillatory Adjustment", dated January 16, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating Core Views - **Near - term**: Under the pressure of downstream profit squeeze and a significant increase in the internal - external price difference, there is an upper limit on cotton prices. However, the current load of yarn mills remains stable, and the expansion of spinning capacity supports cotton consumption. With relatively low overall downstream inventory pressure, short - term cotton prices may oscillate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and order situations [9] - **Long - term**: In recent years, the domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly, and Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Although China's cotton production has increased significantly, it still needs to import foreign cotton to fill the gap. The probability of further issuing additional cotton import quotas is low, so the supply - demand of domestic cotton in the new year may still be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand side affected by policy changes in the new year, as well as the adjustment of the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [18][19] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The USDA's January global supply - demand forecast report slightly increased the price with a 7.7 - ton month - on - month decrease in US cotton production to 3.4% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume reached 691.88 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.03 tons. The daily average notarized inspection volume has recently dropped to around 3 tons, and the new - cotton notarization work is nearing completion. The domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory has significantly rebounded to a peak in recent years. However, restricted by import quotas, the overall supply increase in the new year has narrowed. With the expansion of cotton yarn production capacity, the rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the market expects a potential supply - demand shortage at the end of this year. There is also an expected reduction in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season. But after the strengthening of domestic cotton prices, downstream spinning profits have been squeezed, the internal - external cotton price difference has widened significantly, and the inflow of imported yarn may increase periodically, pressuring the upper limit of cotton prices [2] 1.2 Transaction - Type Strategy Recommendations - The price range of CF2605 is predicted to be between 14,000 and 15,000. It is recommended to lay out long positions on CF2605 during pull - backs [21][23] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and sell call options (CF2605C15200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (CF2605P14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts (01, 05, 09) decreased last week, with respective decreases of 0.37%, 0.58%, and 0.77% [22] - **Spot Data**: The CC Index 3128B increased by 0.01%, while the CC Index 2227B and CC Index 2129B decreased by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively [22] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the CF5 - 9 spread increased by 30, and the CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 60 [22] - **Import Price**: The FC Index M increased by 0.41%, and the FCY Index C32s increased by 0.2% [24] - **Cotton Yarn Data**: The futures price of cotton yarn decreased by 0.75%, and the spot price remained unchanged [24] Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive News**: As of January 8, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.9%, the selling rate was 99.5%, the processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased by 4.84% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year. In November 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased by 6.32% month - on - month and 9.84% year - on - year [25] - **Negative News**: In December 2025, the export of textiles and clothing decreased by 7.35% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the cumulative net contracted export volume of US cotton decreased by 13.99% year - on - year [27] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Attention should be paid to the release of domestic textile and clothing consumption data in China, flower and yarn import - export data, and US cotton weekly export data [28] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: At the beginning of last week, Zhengzhou cotton prices further declined under the influence of profit - taking. Both long and short positions significantly reduced, and the short - term trading enthusiasm in the market cooled. The RSI index fell to the neutral range, and prices entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [34] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: Currently, Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 shows a slight back structure supported by industrial end - taking, while contracts 05 and subsequent ones maintain a contango structure. The far - month contracts maintain the expectation of supply - demand tightness at the end of the year and have a stronger trend [37] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the cotton basis weakened slightly and then rebounded, remaining generally stable. The mainstream basis of machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/cotton with less than 3.5% impurity in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang, is mostly above CF05 + 850, and in northern Xinjiang, it is mostly above 1000 [40] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang yarn mills have a cost advantage over those in the inland. Since September last year, domestic cotton prices have declined under the hedging pressure of ginning factories and the supply pressure of new - cotton listing, while yarn prices have remained relatively stable, and domestic yarn mill profits have recovered. However, since December, domestic cotton prices have oscillated upwards, and yarn prices have remained stable, squeezing yarn mill profits again. This week, cotton prices oscillated slightly upwards, yarn prices remained basically stable, and yarn mill profits continued to weaken slightly on a weekly basis [43] 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton prices have shown relatively independent trends. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is low, and the import volume has remained at a low level. In November 2025, China imported 12 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1 ton. The cumulative import volume in the 25/26 season is 31 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3 tons. This week, the internal and external cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the import profit remained basically stable compared to last week [46] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton is expected in the new year. With the additional 20 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the 89.4 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the expected new - year cotton import volume is 110 tons. The probability of further issuing additional sliding - scale tariff quotas is low. Downstream, domestic demand may maintain a mild recovery supported by domestic macro - policies, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting the expected domestic cotton consumption [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the decline in cotton area in Xinjiang is a certain event, but the market doubts the actual decline, and it is difficult to confirm in the short term. Based on the area expectation and the domestic lint sales progress, there is strong support below the Zhengzhou cotton price. Meanwhile, the downstream demand is average, and factors such as the stable - to - decreasing spinning mill operation rate and poor profitability restrict the price increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and downstream restocking [4]. - The USDA increased the domestic cotton production forecast in the 2025/26 season by 1 million bales to 34.5 million bales, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. As of January 11, the national cotton inspection volume was 6.7838 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.62%, and the increase has narrowed compared with the initial stage. If the gap with the USDA's 7.8% production increase does not continue to narrow, there is still a possibility of further production adjustment, but the adjustment volume is expected to be limited. In January, the USDA slightly increased the US cotton production forecast by 350,000 bales, which is in line with the conclusion of "limited adjustment space" in the previous report [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs New Cotton Area and Sales - In late December, the Xinjiang Cotton Association announced that the cotton area would decline, but did not specify the decline rate. The market expects a reduction in the cotton target price in 2026, which will affect the cotton planting willingness in Xinjiang and is bullish for cotton prices in the medium - to - long term [5]. - As of January 8, 2026, the national lint sales rate was 55.6%, 24.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. As of the end of December, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.7843 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons, with the increase rate basically the same as that of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons. Despite the significant increase in cotton production this year, there is no obvious increase in commercial inventory, and the overall inventory pressure is temporarily not large [5]. Price and Spread - Domestic Zhengzhou cotton shows a relatively strong trend due to the resonance of supply expectation tightening and market sentiment, while US cotton fluctuates narrowly due to weak continuous signing. The domestic - foreign cotton price spread has widened to a stage high. Geopolitical turmoil and uncertainties in trade policies in the international market may affect cotton demand [6]. - As of Tuesday this week, the price spread between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased by a certain amount week - on - week; the price spread with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff also increased week - on - week. The price spread between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port delivery price increased week - on - week [52]. Market Transaction and Inventory - According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending January 1, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week, a 49% decrease from the four - week average, and a 24% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of January 12, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.819 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [36]. - As of Tuesday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 10,117 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou cotton yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 77 sheets [61]. Downstream Situation - The downstream demand is average. Spinning mill operation rates are stable - to - decreasing, and profitability is poor, which restricts the increase of cotton prices [4]. - Information on downstream raw material inventories (such as cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills), finished - product inventories, and operating loads is presented in relevant charts, but specific numerical summaries are not clearly given in the text [41][44][46].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are expected to experience fluctuations and rise in Q4 2025, driven by cost support, improved demand expectations, and reduced supply pressure [1][3] Group 1: Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the average price of China's 3128B grade cotton is projected to be 14,570.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from Q3 but an increase of 0.03% from Q4 2024 [1] - The highest price is expected to reach 15,077 yuan/ton by the end of December, while the lowest is anticipated at 14,188 yuan/ton in early October, resulting in a price range of 889 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cotton market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand dynamic, with cotton spinning enterprises showing cautious purchasing attitudes [1][5] - As of the end of December, some cotton ginning factories have sold out their cotton, with most achieving over 70% sales, indicating a gradual decrease in market selling pressure [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, cotton prices are expected to continue fluctuating upwards before the Spring Festival, influenced by a tightening supply outlook due to a projected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang [5][9] - However, the market may face downward pressure due to increased imports and a significant rise in cotton production, with expectations of commercial cotton stocks reaching a peak of 685.32 million tons in January 2026 [8][9] - The average price of 3128B grade cotton may rise to 15,500 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, but a potential price correction is anticipated in March 2026, with prices possibly falling to 15,200 yuan/ton if demand does not meet expectations [9]