Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Biaowangyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★★★ [1] - Caiyou: ★★★ [1] - Yumi: ★☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be tight in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply gap can be easily mitigated. The supply in Q2 will depend on the South American new crop. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [2][3][4] - In the context of the growing global biodiesel trend and the demand risk of US soybeans, South American soybeans continue to expand. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils and fats will still be resilient [6] - The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the cross-competitor strategy with rapeseed as the short position. The short-term trend of domestic rapeseed is mainly volatile [7] - The price of corn futures continues to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom [8] - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a rebound trend, and the price is oscillating strongly. The purchase of domestic soybeans by enterprises is active, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. China's soybean supply chain procurement source has shifted to South America, and the price of US soybeans is expected to be under pressure from the demand side [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures are oscillating narrowly. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2.1 million tons this year. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. The supply of South American old-season soybeans and China's existing large inventory can buffer. The domestic beans will gradually reduce inventory, which may make the soybean supply tight in Q1 next year. The short-term inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the overall demand has decreased more. The Indonesian market is more resilient. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals [4][6] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures are fluctuating in a narrow range. The market is still waiting to see the trend of Sino-US economic and trade relations. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is coming to an end, and the yield is better than expected. The export is still a problem, which puts pressure on the supply and demand prospects of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed inventory and operating rate are still at a low level. The demand for rapeseed is being suppressed by the "premium" compared with competitors. The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term [7] Corn - The corn futures continue to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom. The impact of Trump's remarks is small. The new corn in the Northeast is on the market in large quantities, and the price has dropped [8] Hogs - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The spot price has dropped to the bottom range. The scale enterprise's slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in October. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] Eggs - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The current spot price is close to the lowest level in the first half of the year. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10]