国际货币基金组织（IMF）近日表示，美国经济在经历持续数年的强劲反弹后，开始显现出增长压力加重的迹象。该机构指出，当前美国国内需求逐步放 缓，就业市场增长动力也有所减弱，反映出经济可能进入调整阶段。 IMF发言人Julie Kozack在例行发布会上谈到，尽管美国通胀水平正逐步接近美联储设定的百分之二目标，但近期实施的进口商品关税措施可能对物价造成新 一轮上行压力。她强调，今年上半年因预期关税调整而出现的提前进口行为，已经导致美国经济数据出现波动，而实际征收的关税更可能进一步推高通胀水 平。 美国劳工部日前发布的年度就业修正报告显示，截至今年三月的十二个月内，全美就业岗位总数较先前估计减少约九十一点一万个。这一修正使得期间月均 新增就业人数从十四点七万人大幅下调至七点一万人，成为有记录以来最大幅度的数据修正。分析认为，这显示在实施新一轮关税政策前，美国就业市场增 长动能已呈现疲软态势。 1988 瑞!! e g a t and 取扱 g 158.62 . FE 6 any r 19 . 1111 8 Bank A o be li e EATH ata L Gr. a fin BAI 112 ranza .. ...

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates but provided disappointing guidance for the current quarter, leading to a significant drop in stock price [1][4]. Financial Performance - Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue increased by 6.5% to $1.02 billion, aligning closely with estimates of $1.01 billion, a slowdown compared to 16.3% growth for the full year [2]. - Hoka brand sales growth decelerated to 10%, down from 23.6% for the full fiscal year, while Ugg brand growth slowed to 3.6% from 13.1% [2]. - Gross margin improved from 56.2% to 56.7%, and operating income rose by 20.5% from $144.3 million to $173.9 million [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) increased from $0.82 to $1, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.61 [3]. Future Guidance - For the first quarter, management anticipates revenue between $890 million and $910 million, below the consensus estimate of $925.3 million, indicating a 9% growth at the midpoint [4]. - Adjusted EPS is projected to be between $0.62 and $0.67, lower than the estimate of $0.79 and down from $0.75 in the same quarter last year [4]. Market Conditions - Management acknowledged that uncertainties related to tariffs would impact business this fiscal year, leading to a lack of guidance due to these uncertainties [5]. - The company has increased its share repurchase authorization, indicating a strategy to take advantage of the stock's decline, which has fallen over 50% from its peak earlier this year [5]. Valuation Perspective - Despite the weak guidance and pressures from the trade environment, the current valuation appears attractive for a company with a history of outperforming the market [6].