Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Biaowangyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★★★ [1] - Caiyou: ★★★ [1] - Yumi: ★☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be tight in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply gap can be easily mitigated. The supply in Q2 will depend on the South American new crop. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [2][3][4] - In the context of the growing global biodiesel trend and the demand risk of US soybeans, South American soybeans continue to expand. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils and fats will still be resilient [6] - The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the cross-competitor strategy with rapeseed as the short position. The short-term trend of domestic rapeseed is mainly volatile [7] - The price of corn futures continues to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom [8] - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a rebound trend, and the price is oscillating strongly. The purchase of domestic soybeans by enterprises is active, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. China's soybean supply chain procurement source has shifted to South America, and the price of US soybeans is expected to be under pressure from the demand side [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures are oscillating narrowly. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2.1 million tons this year. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. The supply of South American old-season soybeans and China's existing large inventory can buffer. The domestic beans will gradually reduce inventory, which may make the soybean supply tight in Q1 next year. The short-term inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the overall demand has decreased more. The Indonesian market is more resilient. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals [4][6] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures are fluctuating in a narrow range. The market is still waiting to see the trend of Sino-US economic and trade relations. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is coming to an end, and the yield is better than expected. The export is still a problem, which puts pressure on the supply and demand prospects of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed inventory and operating rate are still at a low level. The demand for rapeseed is being suppressed by the "premium" compared with competitors. The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term [7] Corn - The corn futures continue to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom. The impact of Trump's remarks is small. The new corn in the Northeast is on the market in large quantities, and the price has dropped [8] Hogs - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The spot price has dropped to the bottom range. The scale enterprise's slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in October. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] Eggs - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The current spot price is close to the lowest level in the first half of the year. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10]

Group 1 - The IMF indicates that the US economy is showing signs of increased growth pressure after several years of strong recovery, with domestic demand slowing and job market momentum weakening, suggesting a potential adjustment phase [1] - IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack noted that while inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target, recent import tariffs may exert upward pressure on prices, leading to fluctuations in economic data due to anticipated tariff adjustments [3] - The US Department of Labor's annual employment revision report revealed a reduction of approximately 91,100 jobs over the past year, significantly lowering the average monthly job growth from 147,000 to 71,000, marking the largest data revision on record [5] Group 2 - Despite facing challenges, the IMF acknowledges the resilience of the US economy in recent years, but warns that uncertainty in the trade environment may increasingly pressure corporate investment and economic activity [8] - The IMF emphasizes the importance of accurate, timely, and reliable economic data from all countries, as such transparency aids in policy formulation and enhances the credibility of economic management [8]

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deckers reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates but provided disappointing guidance for the current quarter, leading to a significant drop in stock price [1][4]. Financial Performance - Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue increased by 6.5% to $1.02 billion, aligning closely with estimates of $1.01 billion, a slowdown compared to 16.3% growth for the full year [2]. - Hoka brand sales growth decelerated to 10%, down from 23.6% for the full fiscal year, while Ugg brand growth slowed to 3.6% from 13.1% [2]. - Gross margin improved from 56.2% to 56.7%, and operating income rose by 20.5% from $144.3 million to $173.9 million [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) increased from $0.82 to $1, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.61 [3]. Future Guidance - For the first quarter, management anticipates revenue between $890 million and $910 million, below the consensus estimate of $925.3 million, indicating a 9% growth at the midpoint [4]. - Adjusted EPS is projected to be between $0.62 and $0.67, lower than the estimate of $0.79 and down from $0.75 in the same quarter last year [4]. Market Conditions - Management acknowledged that uncertainties related to tariffs would impact business this fiscal year, leading to a lack of guidance due to these uncertainties [5]. - The company has increased its share repurchase authorization, indicating a strategy to take advantage of the stock's decline, which has fallen over 50% from its peak earlier this year [5]. Valuation Perspective - Despite the weak guidance and pressures from the trade environment, the current valuation appears attractive for a company with a history of outperforming the market [6].