等反弹后抛空 鸡蛋月报 2026/01/04 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：12月份，国内蛋价冲高后回落，整体以偏强震荡为主，月内下游入市采购增多，需求略微转好，同时淘鸡小幅放量，鸡龄下滑，但 整体存栏仍大，且高峰蛋鸡占比偏高导致产蛋率偏高，供应大限制涨幅，月底市场信心不足，蛋价小幅回落；具体看，黑山大码蛋价月落 0.1元至2.8元/斤，月内最低2.7元/斤，馆陶月涨0.09元至2.8/斤，月内最低2.6元/斤，销区回龙观月落0.05元至3.07元/斤，东莞月涨0.15 元至2.98元/斤；1月份进入春节备货集中期，需求方面提振力度增强，加之供应仍有下降预期，蛋价或呈逐步上涨走势，下旬到达最高点，2 月正处春节假期，市场需求明显下降，蛋价或有明显跌势出现。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖持续亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg industry in 2026 has the conditions to start an upward cycle as the capacity reduction has begun in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to continuous losses, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful because of the rapid increase in market scale and the large - scale idle capacity of leading groups [2][32] - The industry's cash - flow consumption has led to a decline in the supply in 2026, and on the demand side, the market will return to normal with stable regular consumption, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [3][32][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Egg Futures and Spot Price Trend Review - The 2025 egg futures and spot prices resonated, with the market pessimistic due to the confirmed supply increase. The price trend was divided into five stages: 1 - 2 months, expectation - dominated and sideways; 3 - 5 months, futures and spot prices resonated and were anchored to cost; 6 - 7 months, futures and spot prices deviated with expectations leading; 8 - 10 months, the peak season was not prosperous, and both futures and spot prices declined; 11 - 12 months, the elimination increased, and the market traded the cycle reversal in advance [6][7][8][9][10] 2. 2026 Egg Operation Logic: Cycle May Reverse, but the Industrial Structure Does Not Support Sustained Profits 2.1 Supply Side: The Capacity Decline Trend Is Confirmed, and the Supply Decreases - The industry has entered the cash - flow loss stage, and the capacity reduction cycle has started. After 4 years of profit from 2021 - 2024, the industry entered a loss in 2025, and the capacity reduction cycle began in the fourth quarter [13] - The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased, but large - scale farming may lead to accelerated replenishment in the next round. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased since August 2025, and the存栏 is expected to decline in the first half of 2026. However, referring to the pig industry, the egg industry may accelerate the replenishment rhythm [16] - The elimination of old chickens has accelerated, but the total elimination is still insufficient. The elimination of old chickens has accelerated in November 2025, but the corporate side may extend the elimination rhythm. The存栏 structure has been optimized, and the egg - laying rate of the newly replenished chicks in 2026 is expected to increase [21][22] 2.2 Demand Side: Consumption Support May Fall Short of Expectations - The seasonal consumption pattern of eggs continues. Egg consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the festival consumption has a significant short - term price - boosting effect. The inventory fluctuations in 2025 were larger than in 2024 [25] - The strong egg consumption did not continue. In 2025, egg consumption was strong in the off - season but weak in the peak season. The large amount of cold - storage eggs in the off - season overdrafted the peak - season demand, and the per - capita consumption reached the upper limit [27] - The pig cycle has entered a downward stage, and the substitution demand has weakened. In 2025, the pig price declined, and the substitution effect of pork on eggs increased, suppressing egg consumption [29][30] 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Conclusion - The capacity reduction cycle has started, and the cycle is expected to reverse. In 2026, the industry has the conditions to start an upward cycle, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful [32] - On the supply side, the supply in 2026 will decrease year - on - year due to over 8 months of losses in 2025 and the acceleration of social elimination [32] - On the demand side, the cold - storage egg volume in 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025, and regular consumption will be stable, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [33] 3.2 Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, it is in the consumption off - season, with high inventory and young chicken age. The spot price is expected to fluctuate between 2,400 - 4,000 yuan/500 kg. In the second half of the year, if there is over - elimination in the first half and the impact of high temperature on the egg - laying rate, the price may rise significantly, with the core fluctuation range of the spot price expected to be 3,300 - 4,700 yuan/ton and the futures index between 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [35] - In terms of trading strategies, go long on peak - season contracts at low prices in the first half of the year, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the spot price reaches the peak in the third quarter. The industry should arrange hedging according to expected profits [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The egg supply in 2026: The number of newly opened laying hens from January to May is expected to be average, with no significant pressure. If the Spring Festival market fails to meet expectations, it may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure, but the inventory base in the first half of 2026 remains high [1][2][43]. - The egg demand in 2026: The consumption is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise. The demand will pick up due to festivals, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality is expected to narrow [1][2][43]. - The feed cost in 2026: It is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. The feed cost per catty of eggs is estimated to be between 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [2][41][44]. - The market outlook for 2026: There may be a phased rebound, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic [2][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Egg Market Review - The main theme of the spot price in 2025 was weak, with the price fluctuating in the range of 【2.54, 4.45】 yuan/catty, and the center of gravity moving down year - on - year [6]. - The price fluctuation went through five stages: decline from January to February, rebound and then decline from March to April, weak operation from April to early July, rise and then decline from mid - July to mid - September, and decline and then narrow - range fluctuation from late September to late November [6][7][8]. Fundamental Logic Analysis Supply Side - **In - production laying hen inventory**: In 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and reached a peak. As of November, it was at a high level in the past six years, and although it is currently declining, the base is still large [13][14]. - **Chick replenishment**: In 2025, the replenishment volume decreased year - on - year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back. The newly opened laying hens from January to May 2026 are expected to be at an average level, with no significant pressure [17][18]. - **Elimination of laying hens**: In 2025, the elimination volume increased year - on - year, with high elimination in May - June and October - November. The current chicken age structure is relatively young. If the Spring Festival market is disappointing, it may relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure [20][22][23]. - **Inventory forecast for 2026**: From January to May 2026, the number of newly opened laying hens is not large. If the elimination accelerates during the Spring Festival, the inventory may decline, but the base is still high, and capacity reduction takes time [29][30]. Demand Side - **Consumption seasonality**: In 2025, egg consumption was still driven by festivals, with obvious seasonal patterns. The price fluctuation caused by seasonality has narrowed due to inventory adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Substitute demand analysis**: In the first half of 2026, the high pressure of pig slaughter and the expected decline of vegetable prices may reduce the cost - effectiveness of eggs and weaken the substitute demand. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to pig capacity reduction and extreme weather [37]. Cost Side - The cost of corn in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 2100 - 2350 yuan/ton, with a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - The supply and demand of soybean meal in 2026 are both strong, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price may fall after March [40]. - The feed cost for laying hens in 2026 is estimated to be 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [41]. Market Outlook for 2026 - The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is expected to be relieved, but the inventory base is still high, which will limit the rebound height. - The demand is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality will narrow. - The feed cost is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. - There may be a phased rebound in the market, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply - demand mismatch in the egg market remains unchanged, and egg prices are oscillating at the bottom. The near - term futures contracts are suppressed by high short - term production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the egg futures market showed a differentiated performance. Near - term contracts declined weakly, and far - term contracts reached a new stage high during the week and then fell back. As of last Friday's close, the main egg contract JD2512 was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.26%, and the JD2605 contract was reported at 3477 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.17% [6][15]. - **Spot Prices**: Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country increased month - on - month. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.01 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty or 3.43% month - on - month; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 3.03% month - on - month [20]. - **Chick Prices**: The average price of commercial chicks in the country last week was 2.76 yuan per chick, up 0.01 yuan per chick or 0.36% from the previous week, with a year - on - year decline of 25.2%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%, and some are as high as 60% - 70%. Medium and large - scale enterprises maintain rigid replenishment, and the overall egg market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [24]. - **Old Hen Prices**: Driven by the slight increase in egg prices in the production and sales areas, the price of old hens rebounded slightly last week. The average price of old hens in the sample market was 4.14 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan per catty or 0.49% month - on - month [28]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.311 billion, showing a month - on - month decline. There is an expectation of a decline in the inventory in the fourth quarter, but the effect of production capacity reduction is slow. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will hardly fall below 1.3 billion before the end of the year [33]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume of the main egg production areas decreased month - on - month last week. The shipment volume in the sample market was 6186.06 tons, down 1.81% month - on - month and 18.96% year - on - year [37]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 631,200, up 0.64% month - on - month, with an average slaughter age of 494 days, with the highest average age being 510 days and the lowest being 480 days [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The sales volume of eggs in the sales areas increased month - on - month last week. The sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 6501.44 tons, up 0.21% month - on - month and down 4.91% year - on - year [44]. - **Arrival Volume in Sales Areas**: In Beijing, the arrival volume was 95 trucks, up 5 trucks or 5.56% month - on - month; in Guangdong, the arrival volume was 580 trucks, down 35 trucks or 6.42% month - on - month [47]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Analysis**: The total weekly slaughter volume of old hens in the sample slaughter enterprises last week was 2.4775 million, an increase of 99,900 or 4.2% from the previous week [48][50]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.1 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days [54]. - **Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The average breeding cost of laying hens last week was 3.44 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty or 0.29% month - on - month. The breeding profit was - 0.43 yuan per catty, up 0.09 yuan per catty or 17.31% month - on - month. Although the breeding profit rebounded slightly, it was still in the loss range [58]. - **Related Products** - **White - Feathered Broilers**: The average price of white - feathered broilers in the country last week was 3.45 yuan per catty, with a month - on - month decline of 1.15% and a year - on - year decline of 8.24%; the average price of white - feathered chicks was 3.35 yuan per chick, down 0.10 yuan per chick or 2.90% month - on - month, with a year - on - year decline of 22.09% [63]. - **817 Small White Chickens**: The weekly average price of 817 small white chickens in the national market was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.03 yuan per catty or 0.78% from the previous week [68]. 3.3. Market Outlook The main egg contract encountered obvious resistance near 3240 yuan last week. The futures market lacks supply - demand fundamental support and then started to oscillate and decline. The spot egg price remained between 2.9 - 3.1 yuan per catty, hovering around the feed cost line, and has not significantly stimulated the farmers' willingness to slaughter, resulting in slow production capacity reduction. Therefore, the near - term contracts are suppressed by short - term high production capacity and may not perform well, while the support for the far - term contracts still depends on the actual progress of production capacity reduction [9][69]. 3.4. Operation Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Hold short positions cautiously and continuously monitor the culling progress of the breeding end. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage opportunity. - **Options**: Wait and see [10][70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Biaowangyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★★★ [1] - Caiyou: ★★★ [1] - Yumi: ★☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be tight in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply gap can be easily mitigated. The supply in Q2 will depend on the South American new crop. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [2][3][4] - In the context of the growing global biodiesel trend and the demand risk of US soybeans, South American soybeans continue to expand. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils and fats will still be resilient [6] - The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the cross-competitor strategy with rapeseed as the short position. The short-term trend of domestic rapeseed is mainly volatile [7] - The price of corn futures continues to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom [8] - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a rebound trend, and the price is oscillating strongly. The purchase of domestic soybeans by enterprises is active, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. China's soybean supply chain procurement source has shifted to South America, and the price of US soybeans is expected to be under pressure from the demand side [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures are oscillating narrowly. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2.1 million tons this year. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. The supply of South American old-season soybeans and China's existing large inventory can buffer. The domestic beans will gradually reduce inventory, which may make the soybean supply tight in Q1 next year. The short-term inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the overall demand has decreased more. The Indonesian market is more resilient. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals [4][6] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures are fluctuating in a narrow range. The market is still waiting to see the trend of Sino-US economic and trade relations. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is coming to an end, and the yield is better than expected. The export is still a problem, which puts pressure on the supply and demand prospects of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed inventory and operating rate are still at a low level. The demand for rapeseed is being suppressed by the "premium" compared with competitors. The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term [7] Corn - The corn futures continue to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom. The impact of Trump's remarks is small. The new corn in the Northeast is on the market in large quantities, and the price has dropped [8] Hogs - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The spot price has dropped to the bottom range. The scale enterprise's slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in October. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] Eggs - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The current spot price is close to the lowest level in the first half of the year. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with egg futures experiencing a strong upward trend amid seasonal price rebounds and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close on September 15, the main contract for egg futures opened at 3091.00 yuan per 500 kg, reaching a high of 3197.00 yuan and a low of 3079.00 yuan, resulting in a price increase of 3.81% [1]. - The egg market is currently in a phase of oscillating upward movement, indicating a strong performance in the futures market [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the age of culling chickens has decreased to 500 days, but it remains higher than previous cycle lows, indicating limited capacity reduction. The pace of culling is slowing down, and with the drop in temperatures in September, egg production rates are expected to recover [2]. - Demand is relatively weak, with school openings increasing demand from cafeterias, but low vegetable prices are suppressing household consumption. Additionally, the pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stocking by restaurants and food manufacturers is not meeting expectations [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - National Investment Trust Futures suggests monitoring the strength and sustainability of the current price rebound in the spot market, while also considering the potential for long positions in distant contracts and the exit of short positions in near-month contracts [1]. - Based on the leading index for culling chickens, it is anticipated that egg prices may continue to decline until March of next year, recommending a strategy of shorting near-month contracts on price rallies [2]. - In a high volatility environment, options selling is seen as more cost-effective, with initial strategies suggesting the construction of a wide straddle to generate premium income, transitioning to a bear spread as market conditions evolve [2].

Report Title and Information - Report Title: Eggs: Focus on Massive Positions and Capacity Reduction [1] - Author: Yang Ruixia [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - When the future downward trend ends, attention should be paid to the risk of price reverse fluctuations caused by the departure of massive funds from the egg futures market [2] - If the spot price of eggs does not rebound significantly in September, it is expected that there will be an accelerated culling of old chickens around the Mid - Autumn Festival, and the second half of this year is a critical stage for the industry to accelerate capacity reduction [12] Summary by Directory 1. Massive Increase in Egg Futures Positions - In the recent one - month downward trend, the total positions of egg futures have doubled. On July 28, the total positions were 562,000 lots, and on August 28, they reached 1.13 million lots [2] - During the decline of egg futures, the total positions continuously reached new highs since listing. As of August 28, the egg index contract dropped 13.6% in the past month, and the near - month 2509 contract dropped 20.5% during the same period [2] 2. Asynchrony of Futures and Spot Prices - While the egg futures price has been hitting new lows in the past month, the spot price has not continued to reach new lows. The main - producing area egg price has not broken through the spot price low formed since early July [5] - The downward momentum of futures prices comes from the weak peak season of spot and the high premium on the futures market, and the premium on the futures market has been continuously squeezed as market expectations weaken [5] 3. Four - month Loss in the Industry and Capacity Reduction - Egg - chicken farming has been in a loss phase since May, with four consecutive months of losses. It is the only year since 2014 that egg - chicken farming has suffered losses during the traditional summer peak season [9] - The price of culled chickens has been declining in the past month, and the culling age has also continued to decrease. As of August 28, the culling age was 496 days [12] - For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, consider deploying long positions at an appropriate time, and for the near - month contracts, focus on the future departure of short - selling funds [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current egg prices in China are experiencing a significant decline, with a 2.3% drop from the previous week and a 23.7% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging market environment for the poultry industry [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - As of August 4, the wholesale market price for eggs was 7.54 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a notable year-on-year decline [1]. - Traditional seasonal factors such as the rainy season, high temperatures affecting egg production, and pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stocking are typically expected to drive up prices, but this year, the demand is insufficient due to weak capacity reduction [1][4]. - The current age of culling hens has decreased from 538 days to 506 days, but the actual culling volume remains below historical levels, leading to slow capacity clearance and limiting upward price movement [1][4]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - As of the end of July, the national inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase from 1.277 billion [1]. - Future trends indicate that the positive breeding profits starting from May 2024 may lead to increased restocking activity in the second half of 2024, with a slight increase in inventory expected in Q3 of this year [2]. - Despite seasonal demand recovery anticipated in the second half of the year, the high inventory level of around 1.35 billion hens suggests that the industry must undergo significant capacity reduction to achieve market balance [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The egg price is expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to high inventory levels, with potential for further declines [4][5]. - The report suggests that the egg price may follow a pattern of being weak in the short term but stronger in the long term, depending on supply-side adjustments [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the egg market was in a trough with high supply and weak demand. Although there were signs of capacity reduction in June, the re - balance of supply and demand still needed time. In the short term, egg prices faced great pressure, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season in the third quarter, demand would recover and prices might bottom - out and rebound, though the increase would be limited and the price peak might not exceed last year's level [6][7][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of 2025 Egg Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - In the first half of 2025, the main egg futures contract showed a volatile downward trend, dropping below 3000 yuan in March. There were rebounds in March - April and May - June, but they were limited. As of June 30, the main JD2508 contract closed at 3566 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.68% increase [14] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - The egg spot market in China continued to weaken in the first half of 2025, with prices below the cost line. The average price in the main production areas dropped from 3.23 yuan/jin at the beginning of the year to 2.64 yuan/jin in mid - June, a cumulative decline of 18.3%. As of June 30, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, a 40% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price movement could be divided into three stages: a sharp decline after the Spring Festival, a weak rebound, and an accelerated decline [18] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Laying Hen Inventory - The laying hen inventory remained high in June 2025, at about 1.27 billion. The supply was abundant, and the supply - demand contradiction was intensified by the high mold rate in the rainy season and the low prices of substitutes [21] 3.2.2. Old Hen Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the average price of old hens was 5.11 yuan/jin, a 1.73% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. As of June 30, it was 4.64 yuan/jin, a 19.58% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price fluctuated in stages, affected by factors such as egg prices, holidays, and supply - demand imbalances [26][27] 3.2.3. Chick Sales and Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, chick sales showed a "decrease - increase - decrease" trend, with a monthly average of 423.4 million, a 0.12% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Chick prices first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 4.57 yuan/chick in February and a low of 3.90 yuan/chick in June. The decline was due to factors such as low egg prices, high feed costs, and low replenishment enthusiasm [32][34] 3.2.4. Elimination Progress Analysis - From January to June 2025, the monthly average old hen slaughter volume was 1.9618 million, a 13.95% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The slaughter volume first decreased and then increased in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. The average slaughter age was 527 days, a 1.71% increase year - on - year [40] 3.2.5. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Egg - laying hen breeding has been in a loss state this year. As of now, the breeding cost is 3.53 yuan/jin, and the loss is 0.73 yuan/jin [44] 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis and Inter - Month Spread - No detailed analysis content provided, only data tables such as futures - spot basis and inter - month spread are presented [44] 3.4. Market Outlook - In the short term, egg prices face great pressure. With the arrival of the peak season in the third quarter, demand will recover and prices may rebound, but the increase will be limited [49] 3.5. Operation Strategy - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to market uncertainties. In the medium - to - long term, pay attention to the marginal changes in capacity reduction and demand recovery in July. If they resonate, a trend rebound may occur [50]