研究报告 供需错配未改，蛋价震荡磨底 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 上周鸡蛋期货盘面分化运行，近月合约弱势下跌；远月合约 周内创出阶段性新高，周后期开始回落；截至上周五收盘，鸡蛋 主力 JD2512 合约报收 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.26%；鸡蛋 JD2605 合约报收 3477 元/500 千克，跌 1.17%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.01 元/斤，主销区均价为 3.06 元/ 斤，全国商品代鸡苗均价 2.76 元/羽，环比上涨 0.36%，种蛋利 用率约为 50%，中大型企业维持刚性补栏，受蛋价小幅上涨带动， 老母鸡均价 4.14 元/斤，环比上涨 0.49%，样本市场周出栏量增 加，平均出栏日龄至 494 天，销区到货量分化，北京市场到货 95 车，环比增加 5 车，广东市场到货 580 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Biaowangyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★★★ [1] - Caiyou: ★★★ [1] - Yumi: ★☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be tight in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply gap can be easily mitigated. The supply in Q2 will depend on the South American new crop. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [2][3][4] - In the context of the growing global biodiesel trend and the demand risk of US soybeans, South American soybeans continue to expand. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils and fats will still be resilient [6] - The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the cross-competitor strategy with rapeseed as the short position. The short-term trend of domestic rapeseed is mainly volatile [7] - The price of corn futures continues to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom [8] - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a rebound trend, and the price is oscillating strongly. The purchase of domestic soybeans by enterprises is active, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. China's soybean supply chain procurement source has shifted to South America, and the price of US soybeans is expected to be under pressure from the demand side [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures are oscillating narrowly. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2.1 million tons this year. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. The supply of South American old-season soybeans and China's existing large inventory can buffer. The domestic beans will gradually reduce inventory, which may make the soybean supply tight in Q1 next year. The short-term inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the overall demand has decreased more. The Indonesian market is more resilient. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals [4][6] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures are fluctuating in a narrow range. The market is still waiting to see the trend of Sino-US economic and trade relations. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is coming to an end, and the yield is better than expected. The export is still a problem, which puts pressure on the supply and demand prospects of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed inventory and operating rate are still at a low level. The demand for rapeseed is being suppressed by the "premium" compared with competitors. The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term [7] Corn - The corn futures continue to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom. The impact of Trump's remarks is small. The new corn in the Northeast is on the market in large quantities, and the price has dropped [8] Hogs - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The spot price has dropped to the bottom range. The scale enterprise's slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in October. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] Eggs - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The current spot price is close to the lowest level in the first half of the year. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10]

中财期货表示，在现货价格季节性回升提振下，近日空头有获利平仓迹象，推动期价低位反弹，目前期 货后续可能承接旺季做多力量，建议等待企稳低多思路。 目前来看，鸡蛋行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于鸡蛋后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 国投安信期货指出，周末鸡蛋现货价格继续上涨，期货远月的合约跌幅较大，近月受到现货上涨的支 撑。当前仍然处在现货的季节性反弹窗口期，关注9月现货价格反弹的力度和持续性。行业面临的高存 栏问题仍需要产能深度去化，8月以来虽已见到淘汰加速但距离深度去化仍有距离。新开产方面，7、8 月鸡苗补栏处于低位，预计年底左右新开产压力减小，我们根据前期鸡苗补栏数据及静态淘汰节奏估 算，预计年内四季度左右能见到本轮产能高点。对于明年上半年的远月合约，可以考虑择机布局远月的 多单，近月合约则需重点关注空头资金未来的离场问题。 9月15日，国内期市农副产品板块涨跌参半。其中，鸡蛋期货主力合约开盘报3091.00元/500千克，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，鸡蛋主力最高触及3197.00元，下方探低3079.00元，涨幅达 3.81%。 正信期货分析称，供给端，淘鸡日龄虽已回落至50 ...

Report Title and Information - Report Title: Eggs: Focus on Massive Positions and Capacity Reduction [1] - Author: Yang Ruixia [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - When the future downward trend ends, attention should be paid to the risk of price reverse fluctuations caused by the departure of massive funds from the egg futures market [2] - If the spot price of eggs does not rebound significantly in September, it is expected that there will be an accelerated culling of old chickens around the Mid - Autumn Festival, and the second half of this year is a critical stage for the industry to accelerate capacity reduction [12] Summary by Directory 1. Massive Increase in Egg Futures Positions - In the recent one - month downward trend, the total positions of egg futures have doubled. On July 28, the total positions were 562,000 lots, and on August 28, they reached 1.13 million lots [2] - During the decline of egg futures, the total positions continuously reached new highs since listing. As of August 28, the egg index contract dropped 13.6% in the past month, and the near - month 2509 contract dropped 20.5% during the same period [2] 2. Asynchrony of Futures and Spot Prices - While the egg futures price has been hitting new lows in the past month, the spot price has not continued to reach new lows. The main - producing area egg price has not broken through the spot price low formed since early July [5] - The downward momentum of futures prices comes from the weak peak season of spot and the high premium on the futures market, and the premium on the futures market has been continuously squeezed as market expectations weaken [5] 3. Four - month Loss in the Industry and Capacity Reduction - Egg - chicken farming has been in a loss phase since May, with four consecutive months of losses. It is the only year since 2014 that egg - chicken farming has suffered losses during the traditional summer peak season [9] - The price of culled chickens has been declining in the past month, and the culling age has also continued to decrease. As of August 28, the culling age was 496 days [12] - For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, consider deploying long positions at an appropriate time, and for the near - month contracts, focus on the future departure of short - selling funds [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current egg prices in China are experiencing a significant decline, with a 2.3% drop from the previous week and a 23.7% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging market environment for the poultry industry [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - As of August 4, the wholesale market price for eggs was 7.54 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a notable year-on-year decline [1]. - Traditional seasonal factors such as the rainy season, high temperatures affecting egg production, and pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stocking are typically expected to drive up prices, but this year, the demand is insufficient due to weak capacity reduction [1][4]. - The current age of culling hens has decreased from 538 days to 506 days, but the actual culling volume remains below historical levels, leading to slow capacity clearance and limiting upward price movement [1][4]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - As of the end of July, the national inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase from 1.277 billion [1]. - Future trends indicate that the positive breeding profits starting from May 2024 may lead to increased restocking activity in the second half of 2024, with a slight increase in inventory expected in Q3 of this year [2]. - Despite seasonal demand recovery anticipated in the second half of the year, the high inventory level of around 1.35 billion hens suggests that the industry must undergo significant capacity reduction to achieve market balance [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The egg price is expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to high inventory levels, with potential for further declines [4][5]. - The report suggests that the egg price may follow a pattern of being weak in the short term but stronger in the long term, depending on supply-side adjustments [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the egg market was in a trough with high supply and weak demand. Although there were signs of capacity reduction in June, the re - balance of supply and demand still needed time. In the short term, egg prices faced great pressure, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season in the third quarter, demand would recover and prices might bottom - out and rebound, though the increase would be limited and the price peak might not exceed last year's level [6][7][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of 2025 Egg Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - In the first half of 2025, the main egg futures contract showed a volatile downward trend, dropping below 3000 yuan in March. There were rebounds in March - April and May - June, but they were limited. As of June 30, the main JD2508 contract closed at 3566 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.68% increase [14] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - The egg spot market in China continued to weaken in the first half of 2025, with prices below the cost line. The average price in the main production areas dropped from 3.23 yuan/jin at the beginning of the year to 2.64 yuan/jin in mid - June, a cumulative decline of 18.3%. As of June 30, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, a 40% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price movement could be divided into three stages: a sharp decline after the Spring Festival, a weak rebound, and an accelerated decline [18] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Laying Hen Inventory - The laying hen inventory remained high in June 2025, at about 1.27 billion. The supply was abundant, and the supply - demand contradiction was intensified by the high mold rate in the rainy season and the low prices of substitutes [21] 3.2.2. Old Hen Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the average price of old hens was 5.11 yuan/jin, a 1.73% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. As of June 30, it was 4.64 yuan/jin, a 19.58% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price fluctuated in stages, affected by factors such as egg prices, holidays, and supply - demand imbalances [26][27] 3.2.3. Chick Sales and Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, chick sales showed a "decrease - increase - decrease" trend, with a monthly average of 423.4 million, a 0.12% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Chick prices first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 4.57 yuan/chick in February and a low of 3.90 yuan/chick in June. The decline was due to factors such as low egg prices, high feed costs, and low replenishment enthusiasm [32][34] 3.2.4. Elimination Progress Analysis - From January to June 2025, the monthly average old hen slaughter volume was 1.9618 million, a 13.95% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The slaughter volume first decreased and then increased in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. The average slaughter age was 527 days, a 1.71% increase year - on - year [40] 3.2.5. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Egg - laying hen breeding has been in a loss state this year. As of now, the breeding cost is 3.53 yuan/jin, and the loss is 0.73 yuan/jin [44] 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis and Inter - Month Spread - No detailed analysis content provided, only data tables such as futures - spot basis and inter - month spread are presented [44] 3.4. Market Outlook - In the short term, egg prices face great pressure. With the arrival of the peak season in the third quarter, demand will recover and prices may rebound, but the increase will be limited [49] 3.5. Operation Strategy - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to market uncertainties. In the medium - to - long term, pay attention to the marginal changes in capacity reduction and demand recovery in July. If they resonate, a trend rebound may occur [50]