2025.05. 05 本文字数：2779，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 马晨晨 "我们观察到，目前国内的大豆贸易商与压榨企业正在加速转向巴西采购。仅4月的一周就预订40船 （约240万吨）巴西大豆，集中在5到7月交付。还有一部分企业因为进口成本上升压榨利润缩窄，转 向国产大豆压榨。最近黑龙江等地国产大豆与进口价差已经缩窄至627元/吨，这在一定程度上刺激了 替代需求。"陈义娟分析称。 近日美国农业部公布的数据显示，我国大豆采购量从4月10日当周的7.28万吨骤降至4月17日当周的 仅1800吨，降幅超97%。反观中国大豆市场则表现出较高的韧性。4月上旬，国内豆粕价格出现一轮 明显上涨行情，出厂均价累计涨幅达三成，此后在下旬从高点回落。农业农村部的最新监测数据显 示，4月的第四周，全国豆粕平均价格3.70元/公斤，同比下跌1.1%。预计今年中国大豆进口量为 9460万吨，较3月预测一致，整体市场价格仍在合理区间运行。 为何对外依存度较高的大豆市场能扛住这波"压力测试"？政策工具箱里又有哪些颇有成效的法宝？ 中华粮网易达研究院院长张智先告诉第一财经记者，替代、减量和增产是中国大豆市场维持健康发展 ...

Group 1 - The core strategies for maintaining a healthy development of China's soybean market are substitution, reduction, and increased production [1] - China's soybean imports from the US have drastically decreased due to tariffs, with imports dropping from 72,800 tons to only 1,800 tons in a week, a decline of over 97% [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices saw a significant increase of 30% in early April, although they later retreated [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, China's grain imports decreased by 54.1% year-on-year, with soybean imports at 3.503 million tons, a 36.8% drop, marking the lowest level in 17 years [2] - The decline in imports is attributed to delayed shipments from Brazil and the avoidance of US soybeans due to tariffs [2] - Domestic traders and crushing enterprises are increasingly turning to Brazilian soybeans, with 40 ships (approximately 2.4 million tons) booked for delivery between May and July [2] Group 3 - In 2024, China imported 22.13 million tons of US soybeans, a decrease of 5.7%, while imports from Brazil rose to 74.65 million tons, an increase of 6.7% [3] - The share of US soybeans in China's imports has fallen to 21%, while Brazil's share has risen to 71% [3] Group 4 - Brazilian soybeans have advantages over US soybeans in terms of price, quality, and supply, with a landed price of approximately $420 per ton compared to $451 for US soybeans [4] - Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, solidifying its position as the world's largest exporter [4] - The reliance on Brazilian soybeans may pose risks due to seasonal supply concentration and the high involvement of US capital in Brazil's soybean industry [4] Group 5 - China's soybean market has a high dependency on imports, with a self-sufficiency rate of only 20% [6] - The government is promoting measures to increase domestic soybean production without expanding arable land, focusing on improving yield through technology and policy support [6] - The domestic soybean consumption structure is changing, with approximately 13 million tons of edible soybeans being fully met by domestic production, while over 100 million tons for oil and feed rely heavily on imports [7] Group 6 - The Ministry of Agriculture has launched a plan to reduce feed grain consumption, aiming for a 7% reduction in feed consumption per kilogram of animal product by 2030 [8] - Feed companies are proactively adopting measures to reduce soybean meal usage, with New Hope and Muyuan adopting low-soy diets to enhance feed economics [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that the impact of reduced imports from the US on China's grain supply will be minimal due to the availability of domestic reserves [9]