豆粕减量替代
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以量补价难掩颓势,猪企在反内卷与技术降本中谋变 | 行业风向标
Tai Mei Ti A P P· 2025-11-07 13:23
Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is facing significant challenges as it enters the fourth quarter, with rising sales but declining revenues due to falling pig prices below cost levels and ongoing supply pressures [2][9]. Group 1: Sales and Revenue Trends - Many listed pig companies reported significant sales increases in October, with companies like Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) selling 7.076 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 13.17%, but with a sales revenue decline of 22.28% to 10.331 billion yuan [3][4]. - Wens Foodstuff (温氏股份) sold 3.8928 million pigs in October, with a revenue of 5.048 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year sales increase of 45.69% but a revenue decline of 13.15% [4]. - New Hope (新希望) reported sales of 1.6851 million pigs, a 34.44% increase, but a revenue drop of 7.83% to 1.918 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Health - The third quarter saw 19 out of 22 listed pig farming companies report a year-on-year decline in net profit, with 9 companies incurring losses. The total net profit for these companies was 5.684 billion yuan, down 35.86% from the previous quarter [7][8]. - Wens Foodstuff's third-quarter revenue was 25.937 billion yuan, a 9.76% decline, marking its first quarterly revenue drop in 2024, with a net profit decrease of 65.02% [7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Price Trends - The average price of pigs has been declining since September, reaching a low of 11.87 yuan/kg by November 17, down 30.26% year-on-year [9][11]. - The industry is experiencing negative profitability, with average losses of 185.68 yuan per pig for self-bred pigs and 289.07 yuan for purchased piglets as of late October [11]. Group 4: Capacity and Policy Responses - Despite ongoing capacity control policies, the reduction in the number of breeding sows has been minimal, with the total number of breeding sows only decreasing by 0.2% by the end of the third quarter [12]. - The government has mandated a reduction of 1 million breeding sows among 25 leading companies by January 2026, but the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen [12][13]. Group 5: Cost Management Strategies - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods have successfully reduced their breeding costs from 13.1 yuan/kg in January to 11.6 yuan/kg by September, a decrease of approximately 11.5% [14][17]. - The primary costs in pig farming are feed and piglet costs, with feed accounting for over 60% of total costs. Recent trends show a decline in feed prices, which could help mitigate some financial pressures [14][16].
中经评论:我国大豆供应链韧性持续增强
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-30 00:08
Core Viewpoint - China maintains strategic stability in the face of international market fluctuations, ensuring food security and a solid foundation for economic and social development [1] Group 1: Domestic Soybean Supply and Demand - China's soybean consumption exceeds 100 million tons annually, with a low self-sufficiency rate and imports consistently above 80 million tons, primarily from Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina [1] - The country is actively diversifying import channels and enhancing domestic production to mitigate structural risks associated with soybean supply [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - China has expanded its soybean import sources to include emerging markets like Russia and Ethiopia, reducing reliance on single suppliers and enhancing market resilience [2] - The establishment of sufficient soybean reserves acts as a stabilizing force in the market, allowing for strategic responses to price fluctuations and supply disruptions [2] Group 3: Domestic Production Enhancement - China's soybean production has exceeded 20 million tons for three consecutive years, with a projected increase in self-sufficiency by 4 percentage points by 2024 compared to 2020 [3] - The increase in domestic production is expected to alter international market expectations regarding China's soybean import demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on international prices [3] Group 4: Feed and Protein Supply Chain - The demand for soybean meal, a key protein source for livestock, is rising due to expanding farming scales, making it a significant factor in soybean imports [4] - China is implementing measures to reduce reliance on imported soybeans by promoting low-protein diets and exploring alternative protein sources, thereby enhancing the resilience of the protein supply chain [4]
【粮食大事】我国大豆供应链韧性持续增强
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-29 22:36
Core Insights - China maintains strategic stability in the face of international market fluctuations, ensuring food security and economic stability by controlling its soybean supply chain [1][2] Group 1: Soybean Market Dynamics - The international soybean market is experiencing a divergence, with stable prices in the U.S. and significant premiums in Brazil, while Chinese enterprises are slowing down soybean purchases [1] - China is the world's largest soybean consumer, with an annual consumption exceeding 100 million tons, but a low self-sufficiency rate, leading to imports of over 80 million tons primarily from Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina [1][3] - To mitigate structural risks, China is diversifying its import channels and enhancing domestic production capabilities, transitioning from being a "price taker" to an "active planner" in the global soybean market [1][2] Group 2: Supply Chain Resilience - China has diversified its soybean import sources, strengthening partnerships with traditional suppliers and exploring new ones like Russia and Ethiopia, enhancing its ability to respond to market risks [2] - Sufficient soybean reserves act as a stabilizing force in the market, allowing China to manage procurement rhythms and avoid price spikes during concentrated purchasing periods [2] - In extreme situations, these reserves can serve as a strategic tool to counteract price hikes or supply restrictions from exporting countries [2] Group 3: Domestic Production and Self-Sufficiency - China's soybean self-sufficiency rate has improved, with domestic production exceeding 20 million tons for three consecutive years, and an increase of 4 percentage points expected by 2024 compared to 2020 [3] - The expansion of domestic soybean production is expected to alter international market expectations regarding China's import demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on international soybean prices [3] Group 4: Feed and Protein Supply - Soybean meal is a critical protein source for the livestock industry, and its demand is rising due to expanding farming scales, making it a significant driver of soybean imports [4] - To reduce reliance on imported soybeans, China is implementing measures to decrease soybean meal usage, including promoting low-protein diets and exploring alternative protein sources [4] - This shift aims to create a more resilient and sustainable protein supply system, alleviating pressure on soybean imports and enhancing the security of the soybean supply chain [4]
我国大豆供应链韧性持续增强
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-29 22:01
Core Viewpoint - China maintains strategic stability in the face of international market fluctuations, ensuring food security and economic stability through a robust soybean supply chain [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Soybean Supply Chain Resilience - China's soybean consumption exceeds 100 million tons annually, with an import volume consistently above 80 million tons, highlighting a structural risk in food security due to low self-sufficiency [1] - The country is transitioning from being a "price taker" to an "active planner" in the soybean market, enhancing its strategic maneuverability [1][2] - Efforts to diversify import channels include strengthening ties with traditional suppliers like Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina, while also exploring new sources such as Russia and Ethiopia [2] Group 2: Strategic Reserves and Market Stability - Sufficient soybean reserves act as a stabilizing force in the market, allowing for controlled international procurement and mitigating price spikes [2] - In extreme situations, these reserves can serve as a strategic countermeasure against price hikes or supply restrictions from exporting countries [2] Group 3: Domestic Production and International Bargaining Power - China's soybean production has exceeded 20 million tons for three consecutive years, with a projected increase in self-sufficiency by 4 percentage points by 2024 compared to 2020 [3] - The increase in domestic production is expected to alter international market expectations regarding China's soybean import demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on global soybean prices [3] Group 4: Reducing Dependency on Soybean Meal - The demand for soybean meal, a key protein source in animal feed, is rising due to expanding livestock farming, which drives soybean imports [4] - China is implementing measures to reduce reliance on imported soybean meal by promoting low-protein diets and exploring alternative protein sources [4]
巴西大豆涨价失算!坐地起价后200万吨大豆滞销,中国3张牌反制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 13:25
Core Viewpoint - Brazil's attempt to raise soybean prices has led to a significant shift in China's soybean sourcing strategy, resulting in a 1.3 million ton order being redirected to Argentina instead of Brazil [3][4][6]. Group 1: China's Import Diversification Strategy - China has established a mature "import diversification" strategy, adhering to the principle of "one country as the main source, multiple countries as supplements" [4][10]. - The recent increase in soybean imports from Argentina, which doubled to 4.1 million tons this year, highlights the effectiveness of this strategy [6]. Group 2: Response to Brazil's Price Increase - Brazil's price hike has prompted China to cease purchasing high-priced Brazilian soybeans, demonstrating a strategic pivot to alternative suppliers [4][10]. - In just 48 hours after Argentina announced the cancellation of export taxes, Chinese buyers secured a soybean order of 1.3 million tons [6]. Group 3: Domestic Production and Reserves - China's domestic soybean production remains stable at over 20 million tons annually, ensuring a basic supply of protein and providing a buffer against external market fluctuations [14][16]. - The establishment of a nationwide grain reserve system acts as a safety net, allowing China to manage supply shortages effectively [16][17]. Group 4: Technological Innovations in Feed - A technological revolution named "reduction of soybean meal" is being promoted across China, aiming to decrease the reliance on soybean meal in animal feed by substituting it with other protein sources [21][23]. - This initiative not only addresses immediate price concerns but also aligns with long-term national policy goals [21][23].
从被做局到如今一粒不买:中国停购美国大豆背后,局面为何反转?
首席商业评论· 2025-10-24 04:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe impact of China's halt in purchasing U.S. soybeans, leading to a crisis for American soybean farmers, despite record-high production levels. This situation is exacerbated by the historical context of U.S.-China trade relations and the strategic shifts in China's agricultural policies [5][7][9]. Group 1: Current Situation of U.S. Soybean Farmers - U.S. soybean production has reached a historical high, yet farmers face a "devastating blow" due to a lack of export orders, particularly from China, which has not placed any orders for the first time in nearly 20 years [5][7]. - In North Dakota, 70% of soybean storage facilities are full, leading to temporary outdoor storage and increased risk of spoilage, with insurance claims exceeding $500 million due to unsold soybeans [6][9]. - The absence of Chinese orders, which typically account for over 50% of U.S. soybean exports, has left farmers in a dire financial situation, struggling to repay loans taken against their crops [9][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Trade Dynamics - The article outlines the historical shift of China from a soybean exporter to the largest importer, driven by U.S. agricultural policies and the introduction of genetically modified soybeans [14][18]. - The U.S. soybean industry has been heavily reliant on the Chinese market, with average annual imports from China supporting over 200,000 jobs in the Midwest [29][30]. - The trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration, including tariffs on Chinese goods, have led to retaliatory measures from China, significantly reducing U.S. soybean competitiveness [23][30]. Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China has been actively working to reduce its dependency on U.S. soybeans by diversifying its import sources, including increasing purchases from Brazil and Argentina, which offer lower prices and favorable tariffs [25][28]. - The Chinese government has implemented policies to boost domestic soybean production and reduce reliance on imported genetically modified soybeans, with plans to increase planting areas significantly [22][20]. - As of 2025, Brazil has become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, capturing 71.6% of the market share, while U.S. exports have plummeted to 12% [25][28].
巴西大豆价格飙升!美豆受限,中方如何在大豆市场寻找主动权
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-21 06:20
Core Insights - Brazilian soybean prices surged to historical highs in mid-October 2025, with port quotes exceeding the Chicago futures benchmark by $2.8 to $2.9 per bushel, prompting Chinese buyers to slow down their purchasing pace, resulting in a gap of 8 to 9 million tons for December and January shipments [1] - China's soybean import landscape has significantly changed over the past decade due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and a proactive diversification strategy, with China accounting for 79.9% of Brazil's total soybean exports from January to September 2025, a record high [3] - The reliance on a single source for soybean imports has created challenges, as evidenced by China's rapid procurement of 1.3 million tons from Argentina within 48 hours after the country lifted its soybean export tax in September 2025, highlighting the rigid demand for soybeans in China [3] Group 1 - China's annual soybean consumption is approximately 110 million tons, with over 85% used for oil and feed production, while domestic production is only around 20 million tons, necessitating imports of about 9 million tons, which constitutes over 80% of total consumption [3] - The rapid growth of China's livestock and edible oil industries over the past 30 years has led to a sustained increase in demand for protein feed and vegetable oils, making imports a structural necessity [5] - The international soybean trade pricing mechanism has exacerbated China's passive position, as the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has significantly increased import costs, leading to negative crushing margins for domestic oil mills [6][7] Group 2 - To address these challenges, China is enhancing the role of national reserves to stabilize prices during supply shortages, with the establishment of six soybean reserve processing bases across the country for quick market response [9] - China is accelerating its import diversification strategy, looking beyond Brazil and the US to potential suppliers in Argentina, the Black Sea region, and even Africa, with a 15% year-on-year increase in soybean imports from Argentina in 2024 [9] - Domestic measures are also being implemented, including a soybean oil capacity enhancement project initiated in 2023, which has maintained domestic soybean production above 20 million tons for three consecutive years [9] Group 3 - Technological innovations are being promoted, such as the increased use of alternative feed ingredients like canola meal and cottonseed meal, resulting in a reduction of soybean meal usage in feed to 14.5% by 2024, down 1.5 percentage points from 2020 [11] - Chinese enterprises are participating in the expansion of Santos Port in Brazil and the modernization of Rosario Port in Argentina to improve soybean export efficiency [11] - Political factors continue to influence soybean trade, with remarks from former President Trump in October 2025 criticizing China for avoiding US soybean purchases, adding to market uncertainty [11] Group 4 - The new soybean season in Brazil is expected to yield 177.64 million tons by the end of January 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6 million tons, which will be a critical window for China to replenish its reserves [13] - China's soybean strategy has evolved into a multi-dimensional approach, focusing on risk diversification through multi-sourcing, establishing buffer mechanisms for price volatility, and enhancing domestic production capacity and efficiency [13] - The complexity of the global soybean market is influenced by climate cycles, transportation risks, and political tensions, with Brazil's drought in 2023 and Argentina's logistical bottlenecks in 2024 posing challenges for China's response capabilities [13] Group 5 - Chinese buyers are gaining leverage in negotiations, as evidenced by the procurement pause in October 2025, indicating a willingness to endure short-term gaps for better pricing terms [15] - Achieving complete self-sufficiency in soybean production would require 70 to 80 million acres of planting area, while currently, only about 13 million acres are available, indicating that the import-dependent structure will persist in the long term [15] - The speed of market response is increasing, as demonstrated by China's rapid procurement from Argentina following the removal of export taxes, showcasing the flexibility of the supply chain [15] Group 6 - The role of futures markets is significant, with the Chicago exchange still dominating pricing, but the trading volume of soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has been increasing, with a 12% year-on-year growth in 2024, laying the groundwork for future pricing power [17] - Enhanced transparency in trade data has improved the bargaining power of Chinese buyers, allowing for more precise procurement decisions based on real-time tracking of shipping schedules, inventory, and crushing profits [17] - The strategies of major international grain traders are also adjusting, with the ABCD firms increasing their presence in South America to meet the diversified needs of Chinese buyers, reflecting a subtle shift in market power [17] Group 7 - China's soybean import management has transitioned from passive acceptance to proactive regulation, with quarterly assessments of supply risks and dynamic adjustments to procurement plans becoming integral to national food security strategy [19] - The resilience of the supply chain relies not only on external procurement but also on internal collaboration, with information sharing among central reserves, commercial inventories, and production enterprises enabling rapid market response [19] - The ongoing global soybean trade dynamics present both opportunities and vulnerabilities for China as the largest buyer, necessitating flexibility amid political and economic constraints [19]
趋势研判!2025年中国色氨酸市场政策汇总、产业链图谱、发展现状、竞争格局及未来前景展望:饲料市场需求占比最大,超70%[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-08-28 01:36
Overview - Tryptophan is an essential amino acid that cannot be synthesized by the human body and must be obtained through food [2][4] - The market demand for tryptophan has rapidly increased due to the development of the livestock industry and the "reduction of soybean meal substitution" policy [4][9] - In 2024, the demand for tryptophan in China is projected to reach 23,800 tons, with a market size of 1.309 billion yuan [4][9] Market Policy - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the development of the amino acid industry, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and various guidelines for the pharmaceutical and feed industries [4][5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the tryptophan industry includes suppliers of raw materials like corn and molasses, while the midstream involves the production of tryptophan, and the downstream encompasses applications in feed, pharmaceuticals, health products, and food [6][7] Current Development - The feed sector accounts for over 70% of the demand for tryptophan in China, with industrial feed production expected to reach 158.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [9][10] - The increasing focus on health foods has led to a rise in the use of tryptophan as a nutritional supplement for improving sleep and emotional balance [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The market concentration of tryptophan has increased, with international companies like Ajinomoto and CJ Cheiljedang holding significant market shares, while domestic companies such as Ningxia Yipin Biotechnology and Anhui Huaheng Biological Technology are gaining ground through innovation and resource advantages [10][11] Key Players - Fujian Group is a major player in the tryptophan market, with projected revenues of 27.76 billion yuan and a gross profit of 5.057 billion yuan in 2024 [12] - Anhui Huaheng Biological Technology focuses on synthetic biology and expects revenues of 2.178 billion yuan in 2024, with amino acid products contributing 69.28% of total revenue [12][13] Future Trends - The production of tryptophan is primarily through microbial fermentation, with future advancements expected in genetic engineering to enhance production efficiency and product purity [14] - There is a growing emphasis on green production processes to reduce costs and environmental impact, aligning with stricter environmental regulations [14]
从中报看德康农牧释放的价值信号:业绩稳步兑现 “联农带农”实践成果斐然
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 01:24
Core Viewpoint - The swine farming industry is entering a phase of high-quality development under supportive policies, focusing on optimizing production capacity while ensuring stable supply and promoting farmers' income [1][7]. Company Performance - Dekang Agriculture reported a revenue of 11.695 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, with a pre-fair value adjustment profit of approximately 1.273 billion yuan, up 250.6% from 363 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The swine segment is the main contributor to Dekang's growth, achieving a revenue of 9.879 billion yuan, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, driven by a 27.1% increase in sales volume to 5.1174 million heads and a 3.5% increase in average selling price to 2032.7 yuan per head [2][8]. Competitive Advantages - Dekang has established itself in the top tier of domestic swine breeding, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs through self-bred quality breeding stock, with its core breeding group ranking first in key economic indicators [3]. - The company employs precise and flexible feed nutrition technology, implementing customized nutrition formulas to improve feeding efficiency and reduce costs, aligning with national policies on reducing soybean meal usage [3][4]. - The innovative "No. 2 Family Farm" model allows for a lighter asset structure, fostering mutual benefits between Dekang and farmers, which enhances overall production efficiency [4][6]. Social Responsibility and Industry Impact - Dekang actively addresses industry pain points such as overcapacity and farmer income issues by adopting a technology service-oriented business model, emphasizing the importance of farmer education and support [5][6]. - The company integrates government support, advanced technology, and cost advantages to create a win-win industrial ecosystem, providing training and guidance to cooperative farmers [7][8]. - Dekang's efforts in the "联农带农" (Linking Farmers) model contribute to solving rural issues and promoting common prosperity, aligning with national agricultural policies [7][8].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 12:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]