豆粕减量替代

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趋势研判!2025年中国色氨酸市场政策汇总、产业链图谱、发展现状、竞争格局及未来前景展望:饲料市场需求占比最大,超70%[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-08-28 01:36
Overview - Tryptophan is an essential amino acid that cannot be synthesized by the human body and must be obtained through food [2][4] - The market demand for tryptophan has rapidly increased due to the development of the livestock industry and the "reduction of soybean meal substitution" policy [4][9] - In 2024, the demand for tryptophan in China is projected to reach 23,800 tons, with a market size of 1.309 billion yuan [4][9] Market Policy - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the development of the amino acid industry, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and various guidelines for the pharmaceutical and feed industries [4][5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the tryptophan industry includes suppliers of raw materials like corn and molasses, while the midstream involves the production of tryptophan, and the downstream encompasses applications in feed, pharmaceuticals, health products, and food [6][7] Current Development - The feed sector accounts for over 70% of the demand for tryptophan in China, with industrial feed production expected to reach 158.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [9][10] - The increasing focus on health foods has led to a rise in the use of tryptophan as a nutritional supplement for improving sleep and emotional balance [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The market concentration of tryptophan has increased, with international companies like Ajinomoto and CJ Cheiljedang holding significant market shares, while domestic companies such as Ningxia Yipin Biotechnology and Anhui Huaheng Biological Technology are gaining ground through innovation and resource advantages [10][11] Key Players - Fujian Group is a major player in the tryptophan market, with projected revenues of 27.76 billion yuan and a gross profit of 5.057 billion yuan in 2024 [12] - Anhui Huaheng Biological Technology focuses on synthetic biology and expects revenues of 2.178 billion yuan in 2024, with amino acid products contributing 69.28% of total revenue [12][13] Future Trends - The production of tryptophan is primarily through microbial fermentation, with future advancements expected in genetic engineering to enhance production efficiency and product purity [14] - There is a growing emphasis on green production processes to reduce costs and environmental impact, aligning with stricter environmental regulations [14]
从中报看德康农牧释放的价值信号:业绩稳步兑现 “联农带农”实践成果斐然
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 01:24
Core Viewpoint - The swine farming industry is entering a phase of high-quality development under supportive policies, focusing on optimizing production capacity while ensuring stable supply and promoting farmers' income [1][7]. Company Performance - Dekang Agriculture reported a revenue of 11.695 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, with a pre-fair value adjustment profit of approximately 1.273 billion yuan, up 250.6% from 363 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The swine segment is the main contributor to Dekang's growth, achieving a revenue of 9.879 billion yuan, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, driven by a 27.1% increase in sales volume to 5.1174 million heads and a 3.5% increase in average selling price to 2032.7 yuan per head [2][8]. Competitive Advantages - Dekang has established itself in the top tier of domestic swine breeding, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs through self-bred quality breeding stock, with its core breeding group ranking first in key economic indicators [3]. - The company employs precise and flexible feed nutrition technology, implementing customized nutrition formulas to improve feeding efficiency and reduce costs, aligning with national policies on reducing soybean meal usage [3][4]. - The innovative "No. 2 Family Farm" model allows for a lighter asset structure, fostering mutual benefits between Dekang and farmers, which enhances overall production efficiency [4][6]. Social Responsibility and Industry Impact - Dekang actively addresses industry pain points such as overcapacity and farmer income issues by adopting a technology service-oriented business model, emphasizing the importance of farmer education and support [5][6]. - The company integrates government support, advanced technology, and cost advantages to create a win-win industrial ecosystem, providing training and guidance to cooperative farmers [7][8]. - Dekang's efforts in the "联农带农" (Linking Farmers) model contribute to solving rural issues and promoting common prosperity, aligning with national agricultural policies [7][8].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 12:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]
豆粕周报:关注中美谈判进程,连粕震荡收跌-20250728
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 13.25 to close at 1021.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.28%; the September bean meal contract fell 35 to close at 3021 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.15%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.05%; the September rapeseed meal contract dropped 47 to close at 2675 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.73%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.54% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans oscillated downward. The weather, including precipitation and temperature, was generally suitable, and recent forecasts were favorable for crop growth and development. Although the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was revised down, it was at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The U.S. reached trade agreements with countries such as Japan and the Philippines, alleviating market concerns about trade, improving expectations for China - U.S. trade negotiations, and potentially facilitating the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases. In China, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced measures to control pig production capacity, promote low - protein technology, and reduce the substitution of bean meal. The bullish sentiment subsided, and there was a significant reduction in positions to take profits, leading to the week - long oscillation and decline of the Dalian bean meal futures [4][7]. - The cumulative precipitation forecast for the U.S. soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks is higher than the average, and the recent high - temperature weather will subside by the end of the month. The overall situation is relatively good, which may lay the foundation for high soybean yields. The U.S. has reached trade agreements with countries such as the Philippines, Japan, and Europe. The China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations in Sweden are imminent, and the market has improved expectations, which may be beneficial for the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases. The domestic bean meal inventory level continues to increase, and there is still pressure on the spot market. After the bullish funds cash in on their profits, they are waiting for guidance from the negotiation results. In the short term, the Dalian bean meal may fluctuate widely [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT November soybean futures price dropped from 1035.00 to 1021.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.28%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased from 472.00 to 473.00 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.21%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased from 458.00 to 459.00 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.22%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased from - 17.41 to - 45.24 yuan per ton [5]. - The DCE September bean meal contract price fell from 3056.00 to 3021.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.15%. The CZCE September rapeseed meal contract price dropped from 2722.00 to 2675.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.73%. The price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 334.00 to 346.00 yuan per ton [5]. - The East China bean meal spot price fell from 2900.00 to 2870.00 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.03%, while the South China spot price rose from 2850.00 to 2880.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.05%. The spot - futures price difference in South China increased from - 206.00 to - 141.00 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of July 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%, and the previous week was 70%, the same as last year's 68%. The flowering rate was 62%, up from 47% the previous week, compared with 63% last year and a five - year average of 63%. The pod - setting rate was 26%, up from 15% the previous week, compared with 27% last year and a five - year average of 26%. As of the week of July 22, about 8% of the U.S. soybean - planting areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% last year [8]. - As of the week of July 17, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 16.1 tons, compared with 27.2 tons the previous week. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 5081 tons, basically achieving the annual target. The net export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in that week was 24 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season was 261 tons, compared with 290 tons last year [9]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 2.58 dollars per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. The 48% protein bean meal spot price in Illinois was 257.28 dollars per short ton, equivalent to 5.98 dollars per bushel. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 56.15 cents per pound, equivalent to 6.63 dollars per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.28 dollars per bushel, compared with 10.23 dollars per bushel last week [9]. - Anec predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in July would be 1211 tons, and the bean meal exports would be 240 tons [9]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 642.24 tons, a decrease of 15.25 tons from the previous week but an increase of 31.04 tons compared with last year. The bean meal inventory was 99.84 tons, an increase of 11.22 tons from the previous week but a decrease of 26.22 tons compared with last year. The unexecuted contracts were 496.23 tons, a decrease of 52.57 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8.05 tons compared with last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 797.9 tons, a decrease of 25.2 tons from the previous week but an increase of 54.33 tons compared with last year [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average daily trading volume of national bean meal was 13.852 tons, including 8.262 tons of spot trading and 5.59 tons of forward trading. The previous week's average daily trading volume was 13.254 tons. The average daily delivery volume of bean meal was 18.842 tons, compared with 18.524 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 223.89 tons, compared with 230.55 tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 8.19 days, compared with 8.26 days the previous week [10]. Industry News - According to the FAO's "Agricultural Outlook 2025 - 34", by 2034, the soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase. Brazil, the largest soybean - producing country, is expected to see its soybean production grow at an annual rate of 0.8%, slightly higher than the 0.5% of the second - largest producer, the U.S. The soybean production in other South American regions is expected to grow strongly. By 2034, the soybean production in Argentina and Paraguay will reach 5600 tons and 1300 tons respectively. The global soybean production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1%, compared with 2.2% in the past decade. About 80% of the production growth will be contributed by the increase in yield [12]. - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that in the first three weeks of July, Brazil exported 7,436,819.48 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 531,201.39 tons, a 9% increase compared with the average daily export volume of 489,127.13 tons in July last year. The total export volume in July last year was 11,249,924.00 tons [12]. - The IMEA announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from July 14 to July 18 was 441.52 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 443.58 Brazilian reals per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that state was 1499.39 Brazilian reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 6037.16 Brazilian reals per ton [13]. - As of July 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 season were 9 tons, compared with 20 tons last year. The EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 season were 52 tons, compared with 77 tons last year. The EU's bean meal imports in the 2025/2026 season were 100 tons, compared with 111 tons last year [13]. - The AAFC adjusted key data in its July supply - demand report. It adopted the latest rapeseed production data for the 2024/2025 season released by Statistics Canada, significantly increasing the production forecast to about 1919 tons, compared with the previous forecast of 1785 tons. The export expectation of old - crop rapeseed was also raised to 950 tons. Looking forward to the 2025/2026 season, the AAFC lowered the rapeseed production forecast by 20 tons to 1780 tons, based on a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the 2.17 tons per hectare last year [13]. - From August 2024 to May 2025, Russia's rapeseed meal exports increased by 32% year - on - year to about 56.7 tons, mainly due to strong demand from China and Turkey. Due to the EU's import tariffs on Russian rapeseed meal, Russian exporters turned to the Asian market. China's imports of Russian rapeseed meal increased from 10,000 - 20,000 tons per month to 30,000 - 50,000 tons per month. China's total imports of Russian rapeseed meal from August 2024 to May 2025 were 24 tons, compared with 11.2 tons in the same period last year. Turkey's imports also doubled to 10.1 tons, with 93% coming from Russia [14]. - Argentina's soybean crushing volume in June was 4055149 tons, the soybean oil production was 788210 tons, and the bean meal production was 3021082 tons. As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3515877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283900 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 814862 tons [14]. - A commodity research report predicted that Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 season would be 570 tons, a 5% decrease from the previous expectation. The production forecast was lowered mainly because the yield forecasts in New South Wales and Victoria were reduced due to recent droughts that were unfavorable for crop growth [15]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the bean meal main contract, the net position of managed funds in the CBOT, the spot price of bean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean - producing areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - season U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the weekly average daily trading volume and delivery volume of bean meal, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and startup rate of oil mills, the bean meal inventory in oil mills, and the inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises [16][21][24].
豆粕:关注中美经贸会谈,盘面震荡,豆一:基本面稳定,关注技术面波动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 08:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the coming week (July 28 - August 1), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the China - US economic and trade talks in Sweden. The domestic spot market is accumulating inventory as expected, with limited marginal changes. With little change in fundamentals and improved sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for new guidance. For domestic soybeans, the spot market is stable, and the growth of new soybeans is good, so the futures market will continue to focus on technical fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Soybean Market (July 21 - July 25) - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and were at the lower end of expectations, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. In the week of July 17, the 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 360,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 30%, and the cumulative export shipments were about 46.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments to China were 0, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 22.48 million tons (about 23.9 million tons in the same period last year). The current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales were about 160,000 tons (about 270,000 tons in the previous week), and the next - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 240,000 tons (about 530,000 tons in the previous week), with a combined total of about 400,000 tons (about 800,000 tons in the previous week), at the lower end of the expected range (350,000 - 850,000 tons). The weekly net sales to China in both the current and next crop years were 0 [2]. - **US Soybean Good - to - Excellent Rate**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and was lower than expected, with a slightly bullish impact. As of the week of July 21, the good - to - excellent rate was 68%, compared with 70% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and a market expectation of 71% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Data**: As of the week of July 25, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week, with little impact [2]. - **US Soybean - Producing Area Weather**: According to the July 26 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (July 27 - August 9), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be "high first and then low", with a neutral impact [2]. Domestic Futures Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The price of domestic soybean meal futures first rose and then fell. The rise was due to strong domestic market sentiment, reaching a new high since mid - April. The fall was affected by news such as "regulating pig production capacity" and "reducing soybean meal substitution", but these were long - term policy directions, and the news had limited impact on the market. The main reason was the excessive short - term upward pressure and the need to correct the rapid price increase. The weekly decline of the main soybean meal contract m2509 was 1.15% [1][2]. - **Soybean Futures**: The price of domestic soybean futures fluctuated. The spot market was stable, with little change in fundamentals, and the market trend was mainly driven by technical factors. The weekly increase of the main soybean contract a2509 was 0.84% [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 138,500 tons, compared with about 132,500 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 185,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the weekly average basis was about - 167 yuan/ton, compared with about - 160 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 80 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of July 18, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 870,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 10% and a year - on - year decrease of about 25% [4]. - **Soybean Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased slightly week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of July 25, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons (2.31 million tons in the previous week and 1.97 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 63% (65% in the previous week and 56% in the same period last year). Next week (July 26 - August 1), the oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (2.07 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 67% (59% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Soybean Prices**: Soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans was 4,240 - 4,340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in the Inner Pass region, it was 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was 4,660 - 4,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - **New Bean Growth in the Northeast**: New soybeans in the Northeast were growing well, mostly in the flowering and pod - setting stages. The trading of old soybeans was slow, and most transactions were for replenishing inventory out of necessity. Some traders were waiting for the new soybeans to be listed after clearing their inventory [5]. - **Demand in Sales Areas**: It was the off - season for demand, and the demand in sales areas was weak. Due to the hot weather, the production and preservation of soy products were difficult, which suppressed the demand for soy products. Many soy product factories stopped or limited production due to slow sales, and were cautious in purchasing raw soybeans. Dealers in many places said that the sales of domestic soybeans were slower than in the same period last year [5].
光大期货农产品日报-20250725
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 07:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn 9 - month contract is in a downward trend, with the futures price showing a volatile and weak performance in the short - term due to technical resistance, while the spot price in some areas has rebounded [2] - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile. Uncertainties in cost and supply, potential large - scale soybean purchases, and the promotion of soybean meal substitution have led to a decline in prices, and short - term trading strategies are recommended [2] - The oil market is predicted to be volatile. The international palm oil production and export situation is changing, and the domestic oil market shows a strong and volatile trend. A long - only strategy and 9 - 1 positive spread holding are recommended [2] - The egg market is expected to be volatile. The future demand is favorable for egg prices, but due to high inventory and other supply issues, the peak price is likely to be lower than last year [3] - The pig market is predicted to be volatile. Terminal consumption is weak, the market supply exceeds demand, and it will take time to resolve over - capacity issues [3] Group 3: Summary According to Market Information - From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, but the export volume decreased by 7.31% month - on - month [4] - By 2034, the global per capita vegetable oil consumption is estimated to increase from 15.05 kg to 15.68 kg, and the per capita consumption in China and Brazil is expected to reach 27 kg. The nominal prices of oilseeds and oilseed products are expected to rise slightly [4] - As of July 15, 2025, the total inventory of vegetable oils in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month [5] - CGSG Grain and Oil Network plans to conduct a tender for the purchase of 500 tons of rapeseed oil on July 24 [5] Group 4: Summary According to Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread data analysis is provided [6][15]
农产品日报-20250725
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 06:47
Research Views - Corn: The September contract of corn has been reducing positions and adjusting this week, with the futures price showing a volatile performance. The spot price in the Northeast has rebounded, while that in North China remains stable. Technically, the futures price is under short - term technical pressure and shows a weakening trend [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Domestic protein meal futures prices declined due to multiple factors such as the upcoming Sino - US talks, potential large - scale soybean purchases, and the promotion of soybean meal substitution. The strategy is short - term trading, and holding 91 and 15 positive spreads [2]. - Fats and Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil futures prices rose for the third consecutive day. It is expected that the production of Malaysian palm oil will increase in 2025. The domestic oil market is strongly volatile, and the strategy is a long - only approach for single - side trading and holding 91 positive spreads [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly. The spot price has a slight increase. In the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom range, and the peak egg price is likely to be lower than last year [3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of pigs declined. The spot price continued to fall due to weak terminal consumption and over - supply. The resolution of over - capacity issues still takes time [3]. Market Information - Palm Oil: From July 1 - 20, 2025, the yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.19% month - on - month, while the export volume decreased by 7.31% month - on - month. It is estimated that the global per capita vegetable oil consumption will increase by 2034, and the price of vegetable oil is expected to rise relative to protein meal [4]. - India's Vegetable Oil: As of July 15, 2025, the total inventory of vegetable oil in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month. The Indian government plans to increase vegetable oil imports in the second half of the year [4][5]. - Rapeseed Oil: CGC Grain and Oil e - trading platform plans to organize a rapeseed oil bidding procurement event on July 24, with a procurement volume of 500 tons [5]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][9][13]. - Contract Basis: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [16][18][24].
豆类大幅回落,油脂整体偏强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 13:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - On July 24, soybeans declined significantly while oils and fats were generally strong. Soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated weakly, relying on the 5 - day moving average. Soybean No. 2 futures prices dropped by over 1.5%. Soybean meal futures prices fell sharply by over 2%, and rapeseed meal futures prices dropped by over 2.6%. Among oils and fats, soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1.3%, and rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - In the soybean market, with the departure of long - position funds, futures prices dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of US trade negotiations, which will affect US soybean export prospects. In the short term, the market is more volatile, but the rebound trend remains intact. In the oil and fat market, palm oil led the rise, followed by soybean oil. Energy attributes and oil - meal arbitrage boosted the market [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Brazilian soybean exports**: In July 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. It is 26% higher than the same period last year but 10% lower than June. From July 20 - 26, the weekly export volume increased by 9.9% [8]. - **US soybean yield forecast**: South American crop expert Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.335 billion bushels [8]. - **Paraguayan soybean exports**: In the first half of 2025, Paraguay's soybean export volume was 4.106112 million tons, a 25.1% decrease from the same period last year. The export value decreased by 30.5%. Due to drought, the 2025 production is expected to decline [9]. - **Indonesian palm oil production and trade**: In May 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production decreased by 7.01% to 4.165 million tons. Domestic consumption decreased by 3.4%, and exports increased by 49.75%. From January - May, the production was about 2.08% higher than the same period in 2024 [10]. - **US - Indonesia - Malaysia palm oil trade**: After the US reduced the tariff on Indonesia to 19%, Indonesia is expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia is still negotiating with the US, facing a 25% tariff [12]. 2. Spot Market Prices - The prices of imported second - class soybeans in Dalian and the average soybean price remained unchanged. The prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and the average price decreased. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions increased [13][15]. 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The pressing profits of oil mills vary by location and the type of soybeans used (domestic or imported). For example, in Heilongjiang, the profit is 3.40 yuan/ton, while in Dalian (domestic), it is - 219.60 yuan/ton [16]. 4. Related Charts - The document mentions multiple charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27].
农产品日报(2025年7月24日)-20250724
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 07:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to show a volatile trend. The 9 - month contract has rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region has increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. However, the futures price is facing technical resistance and may show a short - term weakening trend [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish. Although the demand growth rate is expected to slow down, the import cost is rising, and the spread trading strategy of 91 and 15 is recommended [1]. - The price of palm oil is expected to be bullish. Due to short - covering and the rise of the surrounding market, the inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased steadily. A long - only strategy and 91 spread trading are recommended [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to be volatile. Although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues such as high inventory and cold - stored eggs may limit the increase [1][2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile. Although the market is currently supported by optimistic sentiment, the problem of over - capacity still exists [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the weighted corn contract continued to reduce positions and adjust. The 9 - month contract rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region increased. The price in the华北 region was stable, and the price in the sales area rebounded slightly. Technically, the futures price faced resistance at the 2320 - 2330 price range and showed a short - term weakening trend [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestically, the price of soybean meal rose, driven by the increase in import cost. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down due to policy measures [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On Wednesday, the BMD palm oil futures price closed higher. In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased, and the export volume increased significantly. Domestically, the palm oil price led the rise, and the inventory increased steadily [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2509 closed up 0.44%. The spot price increased slightly. In the future, although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues may limit the increase [1][2]. - **Live Pigs**: On Wednesday, the main live pig contract 2509 closed up 1.46%. The spot price decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the problem of over - capacity still exists, but short - term rebound is possible [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to adjust the pig production capacity and promote the substitution of soybean meal [3]. - Indonesia expects an increase in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 [3]. - In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly [3]. - Canada has adjusted its rapeseed production forecast. The 2024/25 production is raised, while the 2025/26 production is lowered [4]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides information on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [6][8][9][12]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides information on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [14][18][24][26].
【期货热点追踪】豆粕、菜粕主力回吐本周所有涨幅!机构分析指出,昨日农业农村部开会要求持续推进豆粕减量替代,豆粕期货随即下跌,后市该如何布局?点击了解。
news flash· 2025-07-24 02:57
Core Insights - The main viewpoint of the article indicates that soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have retraced all gains made during the week due to a directive from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to continue promoting the reduction of soybean meal usage [1] Group 1 - Soybean meal futures experienced a decline following the announcement from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [1] - The market is now questioning how to position itself for future trading in light of this development [1]