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油脂油料:申万期货品种策略日报--20260325
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 05:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The market's concern about the supply of imported soybeans has gradually subsided as the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively addressing soybean export quarantine issues and sending personnel to China for consultations. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills has slightly decreased this week, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to decline slightly to around 550,000 tons by the end of the month, a year-on-year decrease of about 100,000 tons [2]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 20 is expected to be 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal continued to be weak. The soybean harvest rate in Brazil as of March 21 was 67.7%, and the postponement of the Sino - US leaders' meeting to mid - May has increased uncertainties in US soybean export prospects. However, the US soybean futures price slightly rose. The continuous futures price of soybean meal has been oscillating and weakening recently, and the mid - term domestic supply surplus situation continues to suppress price performance [2]. - Night trading of soybean and palm oil closed down in oscillation, while rapeseed oil slightly closed up. The palm oil production area in Southeast Asia has entered the production - increasing season, but due to high oil prices, Indonesia may restrict palm oil exports due to energy shortages, which will support palm oil prices. Brazil is promoting biodiesel producers to increase the blending ratio due to energy security issues, and Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, so the oil and fat sector has support. However, the decline in crude oil prices has a negative impact on oils and fats, and the short - term price may be weakly adjusted. Overall, the macro - environment is still complex, and the oils and fats are expected to fluctuate significantly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8594 for soybean oil, 9644 for palm oil, 9813 for rapeseed oil, 2961 for soybean meal, 2365 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were - 146, - 298, - 137, - 46, - 34, and 26 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.67%, - 3.00%, - 3.15%, - 1.53%, - 1.42%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 are 22, 236, - 41, - 1222, 1042, and - 180 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 12, 208, 109, - 1110, 1091, and - 19. The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are - 36, 48, 595, 1.24, 2.84, and 5616 respectively, with previous values of - 30, 31, 617, 1.25, 2.80, and 5493 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4582 for BMD palm oil (ringgit/ton), 1154 for CBOT soybeans (cents/bushel), 65.64 for CBOT US soybean oil (cents/pound), and 322 for CBOT US soybean meal (dollars/ton). The price changes were 79.0, - 10.5, - 0.1, and - 4.3 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.75%, - 0.90%, - 0.11%, and - 1.32% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8930 and 8850 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.22% and - 1.23%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9800, with a percentage change of - 1.21%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 10380 and 10200 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.14% and - 1.16%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3290 and 3300 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.60% and - 0.30%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2600 and 2560 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.52% and - 1.54%. The current spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7200 and 7350 respectively, with no change [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 336 and 256 respectively. The current spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 156. The current spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 567 and 387 respectively. The current spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 329 and 339 respectively. The current spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 235 and 195 respectively. The current spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are - 1014 and - 864 respectively. The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 880, 1430, and 780 respectively, with previous values of - 810, 1590, and 770 [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 679, - 288, 12, - 155, 497, and 411 respectively, with previous values of - 396, - 224, 77, - 88, 621, and 424 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 24,892, 821, 805, 35,220, 0, and 900 respectively, with previous values of 24,892, 823, 805, 35,370, 0, and 900 [1].