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瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260120
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 09:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is generally in a weak and volatile state. The current spot price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills, but the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports from Canada and Australia strengthen the long - term supply pressure, leading to market trading of the expectation of increased long - term supply [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, and the basis remains high, which supports the price. However, the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports also increase the long - term supply pressure, causing the recent trend to be weaker than that of soybean and palm oil with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8,948 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 639 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars, and that of the active domestic rapeseed contract is 5,530 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is - 27 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 53 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 832 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 101 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 253,127 lots, down 469 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 1,001,168 lots, down 12,349 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are - 20,118 lots, up 639 lots; that of rapeseed meal are - 263,240 lots, up 9,509 lots. The warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 1,935 sheets, down 7 sheets; that of rapeseed meal are 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,886.25 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7,648.46 yuan/ton, up 11.47 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and consumption: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region is 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 14.1 million tons, down 1.6 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal in the South China region is 27 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.55 million tons, up 0.37 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and sales: The monthly production of feed is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5,738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.07%, down 2.17 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 20.07%, down 2.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.36%, down 0.87 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 16.36%, down 0.85 percentage points [2]. Industry News - International market: On January 19th, ICE rapeseed futures showed mixed trends. The March contract fell 0.50 Canadian dollars to 639 Canadian dollars per ton. The high expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues to restrain international soybean prices. The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record, which is positive for US soybeans [2]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic oil mills are still shut down, supporting the current spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and the purchase of 60,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed by China increase the long - term supply pressure [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260115
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 11:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Affected by the bearish USDA report and the rising expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also in a weak oscillation recently. Although the current de - stocking mode supports the price and the basis remains high, the increasing long - term supply pressure due to the arrival of Australian rapeseeds and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations needs attention [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 8828 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2283 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 14 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: Main contract positions of rapeseed oil were 258828 lots, up 12208 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 869905 lots, down 1046 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 20583 lots, up 650 lots; for rapeseed meal were - 201431 lots, down 19790 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 2142 sheets, down 80 sheets; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Averages and spreads: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9706.25 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7540.97 yuan/ton, down 45.57 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 3.95, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 772 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 67 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit was 365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%; the at - the - money put option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%. The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.15% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.67%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 12.82%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.08%, down 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.1%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - On January 14th, ICE rapeseed futures declined, in line with the trend of Chicago soybean oil. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract fell 4.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 628.30 Canadian dollars per ton. The rapeseed trade is closely watching the news related to Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish for soybeans, dragging down rapeseed meal. Domestically, the supply of near - month Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed increases marginal supply. The market expects an improvement in China - Canada trade relations, increasing long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal, maintaining a weak oscillation [2]. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The USDA supply - demand report shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern for global and Canadian rapeseed, which restricts the market price. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China raises the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which may support the Canadian rapeseed market. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting the price, but the long - term supply pressure increases [3].
格林大华期货早盘提示:三油-20251124
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 02:40
1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil being the strongest, soybean oil oscillating, and palm oil being the weakest. Given the breakdown of palm oil prices, it is advisable to short at high levels. For the protein sector, the prices of double - meal on the futures market have stopped falling, and it is recommended to stage new long positions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils 3.1.1 Market Review On November 21, affected by the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil and poor palm oil import data from India, palm oil prices broke down, dragging down the overall decline of domestic vegetable oils. The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 21, NYMEX crude oil futures fell about 1%, hitting a one - month low. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut subsidies for imported biofuels by one to two years. - Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. - From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 14.1%. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to a five - month low, and the imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, a five - year low. - As of the 46th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4117 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 8.44% [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic Externally, the push for peace in Russia - Ukraine by the US has put pressure on international crude oil prices. The反复 US biodiesel policy, poor Indian palm oil import data, and high palm oil production in Southeast Asia have led to concerns about inventory pressure, causing the breakdown of Malaysian palm oil prices. Domestically, the sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good inventory levels have weakened the basis of soybean oil. However, due to continuous losses in import and crushing profits, oil mills may increase prices. The poor export data of Malaysian palm oil has dragged down domestic palm oil prices. The zero inventory of domestic rapeseed and the decline in rapeseed oil inventory have made rapeseed oil the strongest among the three oils [1][2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Liquidate all previous long positions in palm oil and short at high levels. Adopt an oscillating mindset for soybean oil and be bullish on rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [1][2]. - Arbitrage trading: No arbitrage opportunities are recommended at present [1][2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review On November 21, the protein sector showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed meal being strong and soybean meal being weak. The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [2][3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%. - China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies since November 10. - As of November 13, the sowing of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71% complete. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons. - Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, a 101% increase from last year. - There are rumors that COFCO has purchased 9 ships of Australian rapeseed. - As of the 45th week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 393,000 tons, the soybean meal inventory increased by 30,000 tons, and the imported rapeseed inventory remained at zero [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic Externally, the reduced expectation of Chinese demand has put pressure on US soybean prices. Domestically, due to continuous losses in oil mill crushing profits, there may be a demand to increase prices, and the downward space for soybean meal is limited. The zero inventory of rapeseed has led to the shutdown of oil mills, and the rapeseed meal inventory is only 200 tons. The prices of double - meal on the futures market have stopped falling, and the low prices have attracted buyers, so the downward space is limited [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Long positions can be established in the far - month 2605 and 2607 contracts of soybean meal, and a small number of new long positions can be entered in rapeseed meal. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3].
国富期货国富期货
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 09:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report mainly presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, important fundamental information including weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and mentions the expected significant increase in global palm oil prices by the end of 2025 due to supply - demand factors [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - The closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are provided. Also, the latest prices, percentage changes, and ten - day percentage changes of major currencies are given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 of imported soybeans from different origins are also shown [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook (July 22 - 26) of US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have rainfall and temperatures close to or higher than normal. The Midwest has good soil moisture, with corn and soybeans entering the pollination period, but some areas like northern Indiana need attention [3][5]. -国际供需 - - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is raised, increasing the export tax from 8.5% to 9%. Indonesia has various palm - related policies and production situations. Global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025. The US soybean and related product export sales and production forecasts of different countries are also reported [7][9]. -国内供需 - - On July 17, the trading volume of domestic oils and meals changed. The national sow inventory decreased, and the agricultural department will take measures to stabilize pig production. The agricultural product wholesale price index increased slightly [15]. 04 Macro要闻 -国际要闻 - - The probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate decisions in July and September are given. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, manufacturing index, etc., and Eurozone CPI data are presented [18]. -国内要闻 - - On July 17, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate decreased (renminbi appreciated), and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 3605 billion yuan [19]. 05资金流向 - On July 17, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 135.16 billion yuan, including 63.7 billion yuan in commodity futures and 71.46 billion yuan in stock index futures. The capital inflows of different types of commodity futures are also detailed [22]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.
银河期货油脂日报-20250717
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 12:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - Short-term, the overall trend of the oil market is expected to be a narrow-range oscillation [12] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on July 17, 2025, were 8072, 8796, and 9440 respectively, with price changes of 30, 74, and -30. The basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 42, 20, and 66 respectively, with changes of 0, 2, and -6 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was -724 (a decrease of 44), the OI - Y spread was 1368 (a decrease of 60), the OI - P spread was 644 (a decrease of 104), and the oil - meal ratio was 2.66 (a decrease of 0.04) [3] - **Import Profit**: The 8 - month shipment of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of -119, and the 8 - month shipment of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam had a negative profit of -797 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the 28th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 106.6, 56.3, and 70.6 million tons respectively, with different changes compared to the previous week and the same period last year [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Indonesia's plantation fund expects the palm oil tax revenue in 2025 to be about 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah. Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and the research is expected to be completed by the end of the year [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79 million tons (a growth rate of 5.21%). The import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and one can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.97 million tons (a growth rate of 2.91%). The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. The European rapeseed oil import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be a large - range oscillation, and one should continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [12] - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread narrowing, and continue to consider shorting on highs after the spread widens [13] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including spot basis charts of various oils, monthly spread charts, and cross - variety spread charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]
建信期货油脂日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:47
Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is weak, but it is unlikely to fall significantly further. The high-frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decline in production growth and an improvement in export data, and the pace of inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%, which will take effect on August 1. The supply and demand of domestic oils and fats in China is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and the increase in palm oil arrivals, it is the off-season for domestic oil and fat consumption, the inventory of oils and fats continues to increase, and the basis is under pressure. The price difference of oils and fats shows a pattern of near-term weakness and long-term strength, and reverse spreads are the main strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), single rapeseed oil 09+240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single soybean oil: spot: Y2509+230; June - July: Y2509+250; July - September: Y2509+260; October - January: Y2601+350. The price of 24-degree palm oil at East China ports is P09+430 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - On June 25 (Wednesday), the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for July, reducing the export tax to 8.5%, at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [9] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.55% month-on-month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 0.25% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month-on-month [9] - Data from the Southern Malaysia Palm Oil Growers Association (SPPOMMA) showed that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of palm oil in southern Malaysia increased by 2.5% month-on-month, among which the yield per bunch of fresh fruit increased by 2.67% month-on-month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.03% [9] - Shipping survey agency ITS released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 25 were 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the 1,061,589 tons exported from May 1 - 25. Among them, exports to China were 104,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to 107,000 tons in the same period last month [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China's third-grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China's fourth-grade soybean oil, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in South China, the basis change of palm oil, the basis change of soybean oil, the basis change of rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 price difference, the P5 - 9 price difference, the P9 - 1 price difference, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [13][15][20][21][26][27]
棕榈油:原油及宏观情绪影响,低吸反弹,豆油:豆系驱动偏弱,区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil is affected by crude oil and macro - sentiment, with a strategy of low - buying for rebound [1] - Soybean oil has weak drivers in the soybean system and will trade in a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volume/Position Data** - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 1.41%, night - session down 0.46%; trading volume is 721,694 hands (up 125,680), open interest is 475,283 hands (up 55,027) [1] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.16%, night - session down 0.41%; trading volume is 438,716 hands (up 161,139), open interest is 591,439 hands (up 2,004) [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.26%, night - session down 0.12%; trading volume is 500,517 hands (up 145,502), open interest is 327,483 hands (down 2,907) [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.80%, night - session down 0.74% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is down 1.10% [1] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; basis is 510 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; basis is 336 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB: Spot price is 975 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton [1] - **Price Spreads** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 1,237 yuan/ton (previous 1,327 yuan/ton) [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 466 yuan/ton (previous - 364 yuan/ton) [1] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: 30 yuan/ton (previous 16 yuan/ton) [1] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 30 yuan/ton (previous 18 yuan/ton) [1] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 167 yuan/ton (previous 169 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for airport ground vehicles from B10 to B20 [2] - The EU's anti - deforestation law will impose new restrictions on imports. Four countries are classified as "high - risk", and major forest countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia are "standard - risk". 9% of exports from high - risk countries and 3% from standard - risk countries need compliance checks [3] - As of May 25, Canadian canola exports decreased 10.36% to 16.01 tons week - on - week. From August 1, 2024, to May 25, 2025, exports increased 59.29% year - on - year to 834.87 tons, and the commercial inventory was 91.99 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [4]