Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report mainly presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, important fundamental information including weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and mentions the expected significant increase in global palm oil prices by the end of 2025 due to supply - demand factors [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - The closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are provided. Also, the latest prices, percentage changes, and ten - day percentage changes of major currencies are given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 of imported soybeans from different origins are also shown [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook (July 22 - 26) of US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have rainfall and temperatures close to or higher than normal. The Midwest has good soil moisture, with corn and soybeans entering the pollination period, but some areas like northern Indiana need attention [3][5]. -国际供需 - - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is raised, increasing the export tax from 8.5% to 9%. Indonesia has various palm - related policies and production situations. Global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025. The US soybean and related product export sales and production forecasts of different countries are also reported [7][9]. -国内供需 - - On July 17, the trading volume of domestic oils and meals changed. The national sow inventory decreased, and the agricultural department will take measures to stabilize pig production. The agricultural product wholesale price index increased slightly [15]. 04 Macro要闻 -国际要闻 - - The probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate decisions in July and September are given. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, manufacturing index, etc., and Eurozone CPI data are presented [18]. -国内要闻 - - On July 17, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate decreased (renminbi appreciated), and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 3605 billion yuan [19]. 05资金流向 - On July 17, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 135.16 billion yuan, including 63.7 billion yuan in commodity futures and 71.46 billion yuan in stock index futures. The capital inflows of different types of commodity futures are also detailed [22]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - Short-term, the overall trend of the oil market is expected to be a narrow-range oscillation [12] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on July 17, 2025, were 8072, 8796, and 9440 respectively, with price changes of 30, 74, and -30. The basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 42, 20, and 66 respectively, with changes of 0, 2, and -6 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was -724 (a decrease of 44), the OI - Y spread was 1368 (a decrease of 60), the OI - P spread was 644 (a decrease of 104), and the oil - meal ratio was 2.66 (a decrease of 0.04) [3] - **Import Profit**: The 8 - month shipment of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of -119, and the 8 - month shipment of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam had a negative profit of -797 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the 28th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 106.6, 56.3, and 70.6 million tons respectively, with different changes compared to the previous week and the same period last year [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Indonesia's plantation fund expects the palm oil tax revenue in 2025 to be about 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah. Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and the research is expected to be completed by the end of the year [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79 million tons (a growth rate of 5.21%). The import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and one can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.97 million tons (a growth rate of 2.91%). The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. The European rapeseed oil import profit inversion has narrowed. The short - term trend is expected to be a large - range oscillation, and one should continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [12] - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking for YP09 spread narrowing, and continue to consider shorting on highs after the spread widens [13] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including spot basis charts of various oils, monthly spread charts, and cross - variety spread charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is weak, but it is unlikely to fall significantly further. The high-frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decline in production growth and an improvement in export data, and the pace of inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%, which will take effect on August 1. The supply and demand of domestic oils and fats in China is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and the increase in palm oil arrivals, it is the off-season for domestic oil and fat consumption, the inventory of oils and fats continues to increase, and the basis is under pressure. The price difference of oils and fats shows a pattern of near-term weakness and long-term strength, and reverse spreads are the main strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), single rapeseed oil 09+240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single soybean oil: spot: Y2509+230; June - July: Y2509+250; July - September: Y2509+260; October - January: Y2601+350. The price of 24-degree palm oil at East China ports is P09+430 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - On June 25 (Wednesday), the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for July, reducing the export tax to 8.5%, at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [9] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.55% month-on-month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 0.25% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month-on-month [9] - Data from the Southern Malaysia Palm Oil Growers Association (SPPOMMA) showed that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of palm oil in southern Malaysia increased by 2.5% month-on-month, among which the yield per bunch of fresh fruit increased by 2.67% month-on-month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.03% [9] - Shipping survey agency ITS released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 25 were 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the 1,061,589 tons exported from May 1 - 25. Among them, exports to China were 104,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to 107,000 tons in the same period last month [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China's third-grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China's fourth-grade soybean oil, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in South China, the basis change of palm oil, the basis change of soybean oil, the basis change of rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 price difference, the P5 - 9 price difference, the P9 - 1 price difference, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [13][15][20][21][26][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil is affected by crude oil and macro - sentiment, with a strategy of low - buying for rebound [1] - Soybean oil has weak drivers in the soybean system and will trade in a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volume/Position Data** - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 1.41%, night - session down 0.46%; trading volume is 721,694 hands (up 125,680), open interest is 475,283 hands (up 55,027) [1] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.16%, night - session down 0.41%; trading volume is 438,716 hands (up 161,139), open interest is 591,439 hands (up 2,004) [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.26%, night - session down 0.12%; trading volume is 500,517 hands (up 145,502), open interest is 327,483 hands (down 2,907) [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.80%, night - session down 0.74% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is down 1.10% [1] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; basis is 510 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; basis is 336 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB: Spot price is 975 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton [1] - **Price Spreads** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 1,237 yuan/ton (previous 1,327 yuan/ton) [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 466 yuan/ton (previous - 364 yuan/ton) [1] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: 30 yuan/ton (previous 16 yuan/ton) [1] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 30 yuan/ton (previous 18 yuan/ton) [1] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 167 yuan/ton (previous 169 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for airport ground vehicles from B10 to B20 [2] - The EU's anti - deforestation law will impose new restrictions on imports. Four countries are classified as "high - risk", and major forest countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia are "standard - risk". 9% of exports from high - risk countries and 3% from standard - risk countries need compliance checks [3] - As of May 25, Canadian canola exports decreased 10.36% to 16.01 tons week - on - week. From August 1, 2024, to May 25, 2025, exports increased 59.29% year - on - year to 834.87 tons, and the commercial inventory was 91.99 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [4]