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棕榈油月报:多因素交织,豆油走势偏强,内外棕榈油短期回调不改长期趋势-20250804
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 13:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term trend of palm oil remains unchanged despite short - term corrections. In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range. There are multiple factors affecting the market, including policies, production, and exports. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [7][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Main Points - **Market situation**: In July, CBOT soybean fell below 1000, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [7]. - **External policies**: The public comment period for the biodiesel policy was extended to October 31; the US imposed a 19% tariff on palm oil from India and Malaysia; the EU gave zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons/year of Indonesian palm oil exports, and imposed a 3% tariff on the part exceeding 1 million tons [7]. - **Production areas**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14% and production increased by 7%, with the reference price of crude palm oil in August raised to 3864.12 Malaysian ringgit/ton. From May to June, Indonesia's exports increased by 50% and 43% respectively, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%, the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, and the D4 credit limit was 629 million gallons. Argentina reduced the export taxes on soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal [7]. - **Domestic situation**: Affected by export news, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased in July, with a maximum daily trading volume of 100,000 tons. Palm oil was mainly for rigid demand, and new purchase orders were added in August. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 1.09 million tons and 600,000 tons respectively, and the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline to around 700,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Due to the good growth of US soybeans, high crushing volume in June, uncertainty in the biodiesel policy, and Argentina's reduction of export taxes, CBOT soybeans fell below 1000. Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports declined in July, and the inventory was expected to continue to increase at the end of the month. Indonesia's palm oil exports were good from May to June, production was suppressed by industry supervision, and biodiesel consumption met the plan, with the inventory stopping increasing at the end of May. There were multiple news in the export end. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [8]. 3.2 Market Review - In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 integer mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US soybeans**: The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%; the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, the D4 credit limit for biodiesel was 629 million gallons (602 million gallons in May). The Brazilian soybean premium rose to 185 cents/bushel, a nearly two - year high. Argentina reduced the soybean export tax from 33% to 26%, and the export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [13]. - **Palm oil**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14%, production increased by 7%, and the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the US on Malaysia was reduced from 25% to 19%. From May to June, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The US imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June increased to 956,000 tons [13]. - **Import and crushing**: In June, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 49.37 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; imported 350,000 tons of palm oil, with a cumulative import of 1.07 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%; imported 150,000 tons of rapeseed oil, with a cumulative import of 1.18 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%; imported 184,500 tons of rapeseed, a month - on - month decrease of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.69%. In July, the soybean crushing operation rate remained high, and the inventory accumulation progress of soybean in oil mills slowed down; the rapeseed crushing operation rate and oil mill inventory were both low [13]. - **Inventory**: By the end of July, the soybean oil inventory increased for three consecutive months to 1.09 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased for more than two months to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory accumulated to 590,000 tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous low. The total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.32 million tons, compared with 1.94 million tons in the same period of the previous year [13]. - **Spot price**: In July, the spot prices of oils generally rose. As of July 31, the soybean oil price was 8343 yuan/ton, a 2% increase from the previous month; the palm oil price was 8968 yuan/ton, a 5.61% increase from the previous month; the rapeseed oil price was 9665 yuan/ton, a slight 0.68% increase from the previous month [13]. - **Demand**: In July, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased significantly. The trading volume of soybean oil was 463,200 tons (381,500 tons in June); the trading volume of palm oil was 10,375 tons (27,449 tons in June); the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 4500 tons (76,000 tons in June) [13]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the part of spread tracking in the text.