1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of Douyi is more robust due to factors such as the suspension of trading by traders, the full - completion of Cofco's competitive procurement, and the enhanced reluctance of farmers to sell. With the arrival of cold weather, the terminal market may have a replenishment wave in the middle and late December [2]. - The market doubts the actual procurement scale and shipping progress of Chinese soybean purchases from the US. The USDA monthly report data is neutral to slightly bearish, and the US soybean will continue its weak oscillation. The international soybean price will likely remain in the current low - level range if China's procurement demand does not expand [3]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market is in a stalemate. The inventory is high, and the December crushing volume may be lower than expected. The spot price shows some resistance to decline, and downstream feed enterprises maintain a high - position rolling inventory strategy [3]. - The domestic oil demand is weak. The palm oil import profit has recovered, but the December shipping purchases are few. The soybean oil supply is stable, the inventory is high, and the basis quotation is under pressure, showing a short - term oscillation trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of Douyi's futures main contract is 4173 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 compared to the previous period; the closing price of Douer's main contract is 3815 yuan/ton, with an increase of 42. The closing price of soybean meal's main contract is 2750 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4; the closing price of soybean oil's main contract is 8036 yuan/ton, with an increase of 36. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of Douyi, Douer, soybean meal, and soybean oil are - 22759, 4953, - 484099, and - 107598 respectively [2]. - **CBOT Futures**: The settlement price of CBOT soybeans' active contract is 1091.25 cents/bushel, with an increase of 4; the settlement price of CBOT soybean meal's active contract is 301.2 dollars/short - ton, with a decrease of 0.1; the settlement price of CBOT soybean oil's active contract is 51.09 cents/pound, with an increase of 0.07 [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - **Domestic Spot**: The domestic soybean spot price is 3940 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The soybean oil prices in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, and Zhanjiang are 8410, 8510, and 8550 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 20, 20, and 30. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 [2]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans is 4027 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3949 yuan/ton, with an increase of 11 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The annual US soybean production is 115.75 million tons, with a decrease of 1.3 million tons; the US soybean's ending inventory is 7.89 million tons, with a decrease of 0.28 million tons. The annual Brazilian production is 175 million tons, remaining unchanged; the Brazilian ending inventory is 36.36 million tons, with a decrease of 0.9 million tons [2]. - **Export and Inspection**: The weekly inspection volume of soybeans is 37569 thousand bushels, with an increase of 3614; the weekly export volume is 927844 tons, with a decrease of 100625. The monthly Brazilian export volume is 281.4 million tons, with a decrease of 144.6 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory and开工率**: The port inventory of imported soybeans is 8303640 tons, with a decrease of 75690; the weekly soybean meal inventory is 116.19 million tons, with a decrease of 4.13 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil is 113 million tons, with a decrease of 3.8 million tons. The weekly oil - mill operating rate is 56.55%, with a decrease of 3.99; the weekly oil - mill crushing volume is 205.58 million tons, with a decrease of 14.5 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Spread**: The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is 121.15 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25.1; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is - 21.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 48.75. The daily soybean - palm oil spread is - 170 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 20; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1530 yuan/ton, with an increase of 190 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Production**: The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans in China is 126.8 million tons, with an increase of 5.1 million tons; the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China is 18800 thousand tons, with an increase of 900 thousand tons. The monthly production of feed is 29570000 tons, with a decrease of 1717000 tons [2]. - **Livestock Situation**: The price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Daxing, Beijing is 11.67 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.05. The weekly expected profit of pig farming is - 279.82 yuan/head, with a decrease of 32.39. The monthly pig inventory is 436800 thousand heads, with an increase of 12330 thousand heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 39900 thousand heads, with a decrease of 450 thousand heads [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal is 11.5%, with an increase of 0.36; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal is 11.5%, with an increase of 0.37. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 8.68%, with a decrease of 0.29; the 60 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 9.02%, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Private exporters reported selling 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. Last week, in the Northeast soybean - producing area, due to high raw - grain prices and snow and rain weather, most traders' purchasing activities were blocked, and they suspended trading and turned to a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in difficult outflow of grain sources and a tight supply situation in the sales area [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Due to the flood disaster in Argentina and the approaching key weather - affected period in the US soybean market, along with the previous reduction in planting area, the CBOT soybean is expected to fluctuate under the game of long - and short - term factors [7]. - With the increase in soybean arrivals and rising inventory, the soybean oil mill operation rate is expected to remain high, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Given the limited short - term demand, the price increase space of soybean meal is restricted. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - The soybean oil inventory is expected to rise. Although the flood in the Argentine soybean - producing area may provide short - term support, factors such as crude oil inventory accumulation and weak US soybean oil demand may lead to a weak and fluctuating trend of soybean oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Bean 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose 0.1% to 4172 yuan/ton. The current market has limited remaining grain, and the inventory is lower than in previous years. The price is stable with a slight increase, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see due to weak supply and demand [6]. - **Bean 2**: The main 2509 contract rose 1.45% to 3571 yuan/ton. The flood in Argentina and the approaching key weather period in the US, along with the previous reduction in planting area, support the price. However, weak US export demand and unmet biodiesel policy expectations limit the upside. It is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract rose 1.83% to 2952 yuan/ton. As soybean arrivals increase, inventory rises, and the mill operation rate is high. The downstream demand is limited in the short term, and the price increase space is restricted. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract rose 0.26% to 7774 yuan/ton. The soybean inventory is at a high level, and the mill operation rate is expected to remain high, so the inventory is expected to rise. The flood in Argentina may provide short - term support, but factors like crude oil inventory and weak US demand may lead to a weak and fluctuating trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Bean 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures prices all rose this week. The 2507 contract of Bean 1 rose 0.1% to 4172 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract of soybean meal rose 1.83% to 2952 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract of soybean oil rose 0.26% to 7774 yuan/ton [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: As of May 23, the 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal was - 51 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 36 yuan/ton, both of which expanded compared to the previous week [31][35]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: As of May 23, the net position of the top 20 in Bean 1 futures decreased by 7338 hands to - 18082 hands, and the warehouse receipts increased by 378 hands to 30136 hands; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures increased by 64511 hands to - 337109 hands, and the warehouse receipts increased by 2025 hands to 38311 hands; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures increased by 5808 hands to - 51771 hands, and the warehouse receipts of the 2505 contract increased by 2232 hands to 14602 hands [40][47][54]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: As of May 23, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin remained at 3980 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 26 yuan/ton to - 214 yuan/ton; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8110 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 56 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [58][68][74]. - **Import Premium and Arrival Cost**: As of May 23, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in June was 78 cents/bu, up 12 cents/bu; that of Argentine soybeans was 2 cents/bu, up 5 cents/bu; that of Brazilian soybeans was 45 cents/bu, up 2 cents/bu. The arrival cost of US soybeans was 4651.21 yuan/ton, up 24.44 yuan/ton; that of South American soybeans was 3723.13 yuan/ton, up 67.09 yuan/ton, and the cost difference decreased by 42.65 yuan/ton to 928.08 yuan/ton [78][82]. 3.4 Weather Conditions - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has weakened compared to last week, but it is worse than the same period last year. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows that the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is higher than normal, and the rainfall is lower than normal [86][92]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - **Supply - Side Forecast**: In May 2025, the expected output of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 11811.5 million tons, a decrease of 72.1 million tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 803.2 million tons, a decrease of 14.5 million tons; the expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 16900 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, and the inventory increased by 100 million tons to 3331.2 million tons; the expected output of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 4900 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, and the inventory increased by 10 million tons to 2474.7 million tons [97][102][107]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, faster than the previous week, last year, and the five - year average. As of May 22, the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 61%, slower than the same period last year [111]. - **Export Situation**: As of the week of May 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 21.8 million tons, a decrease from the previous week; as of the week of May 15, 2024, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 30.8 million tons, an increase from the previous week. Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2025 is expected to reach a record 1609 million tons, higher than the previous estimate [117][123]. 3.6 Industry Situation - **Domestic Inventory and Operation Rate**: In the 20th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 586.83 million tons, an increase of 51.92 million tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 12.17 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons; the soybean oil inventory in key regions was 65.63 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous week. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 20th week was 190.55 million tons, with an operation rate of 53.56%. It is expected that in the 21st week, the operation rate will rise to 63.04%, and the crushing volume will be 224.27 million tons [127][131][135][139]. - **Import and Substitute Situation**: In April 2025, China's soybean imports were 608.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 73.59%. The expected soybean arrival volume in May was 1008.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.86%. As of May 23, the spot pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang decreased by 175.4 yuan/ton to - 32.15 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the 7 - month shipment was 161 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The price of palm oil remained flat, the price of rapeseed oil rose, the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The price difference between the three major oils in both the spot and futures markets decreased [145][149][155][161][172][167]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of May 14, the total domestic soybean meal transaction volume was 426400 tons, a decrease of 680000 tons from the previous week; the total soybean oil transaction volume was 77000 tons, a decrease of 34250 tons from the previous week [184]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - **Livestock Market**: As of May 23, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 14.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg from the previous week; the price of piglets was 36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.53 yuan/kg. As of May 14, the pig - raising profit was 78.62 yuan/head, an increase of 22.32 yuan/head from the previous week; as of May 23, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.16 yuan/head, an increase of 0.14 yuan/head from the previous week [189][195]. - **Feed and Demand**: In April 2025, the monthly feed output was 2664 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In March, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms was 504.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.08% and a year - on - year increase of 4.83%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 3544.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%. According to the USDA report, China's domestic soybean consumption in the 2024/25 season was 126.9 billion tons, an increase of 5.1 billion tons from the previous year; the food consumption of soybean oil was 18800 million pounds, an increase of 700 million pounds from the previous year [199][204][208]. 3.8 Option Market Considering the weak and fluctuating trend of soybean meal, it is advisable to buy at - the - money put options [216].