大豆生长

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蛋白数据日报-20250605
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 08:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The short - term rainfall in the US soybean producing areas is abundant, which is beneficial to soybean growth. As of last week, domestic soybean inventories continued to accumulate and are currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal inventories are gradually accumulating but are still at a low level. With a significant increase in开机压榨, soybean meal inventories are expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace in June. In the short term, the soybean meal market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy and weather changes [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main soybean meal contract (Zhangjiagang) on June 4 showed different values in various regions, such as 2500 in Dalian (down 19), - 79 in Tianjin (down 24), - 119 in Rizhao (down 24), etc. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) also varied by region, with - 39 in Zhangjiagang (down 4). The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 133 (down 76) [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 70, and the spread on the main contract was 396 (up 18). Other spreads like M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, and RM9 - 1 also had corresponding values [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - Data on Chinese port soybean inventories, national major oil - mill soybean inventories, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil - mill soybean meal inventories were presented, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4]. 3.4开机 and Pressing Data - Information on the national major oil - mill开机 rate and soybean pressing volume was provided, with trends from 2020 to 2025 [4]. 3.5 Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in May, June, and July. The current purchase - shipping progress is 94.4% in June, 80.6% in July, and 33.8% in August. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth. In terms of demand, from the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, the poultry inventory remains at a high level, the cost - performance of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions and pick - up have improved [4][5].