Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's estimated ending inventory of US soybeans for the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be revised downward. Exports depend on Sino-US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared to 17.6% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 27.7%. Some areas in Brazil have experienced dry weather recently, but its persistence is not strong, and the expected impact is limited [7]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain. In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The downstream trading of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. Overall, China's soybean purchase contracts are relatively poor, the domestic market valuation is low, the sowing in Brazil is going smoothly, and there are no obvious problems with the planting weather. The supply pressure of domestic soybean and soybean meal spot is still large. Before the Sino - US policy is clear, the market has no obvious driving force and will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region. For example, in Zhangjiagang it is 28, in Dongguan it is not provided, in Zhanjiang it is 48, and in Fangcheng it is 28. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 55, with a decrease of 9 [6]. - **Spread Data**: The spread of RM1 - 5 is 1500, with a decrease of 13; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal on the main contract is 597, with a decrease of 11 [7]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - **USDA Estimate**: The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans for the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be revised downward, with exports depending on Sino - US policies [7]. - **Brazilian Planting**: As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared to 17.6% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 27.7%. Some areas in Brazil have experienced dry weather recently, but its persistence is not strong, and the expected impact is limited [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The downstream trading of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].