豆粕供应与需求

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蛋白数据日报-20250925
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 06:22
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 库但四季度国内豆粕供应预期仍宽松,目前11-1买船进度偏慢。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充,补充来源暂不确定。需求方面,生推 | | --- | --- | | | 和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏。支撑饲用需求,但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重,预期影响远月生猪供应;豆粗性价比较高。提倡干 | | 41 | 高位;本周豆相下游现货成交有所改量。库存方面,国内大豆库存增至高位;油厂豆粕库存上升,但低于去年同期,预期短期仍处于累 | | 倩 | 库周期:饲料企业豆粕库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说,目前阿根廷豆和巴西豆的GNP升贴水价差达到100美分,远高于正常年份,从昨晚贴水表现来看巴西价格较为坚挺,预期阿 | | | 根廷贴水继续大幅下跌冲击成本的空间有限。今日M01量能萎缩,暂时休隆,关注贴水变化,短期M01预期偏震荡, | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求推确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | | से | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意 ...
蛋白数据日报-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:44
Report Summary of Agricultural Products (Soybean and Meal) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The domestic soybean purchase margin has worsened. Due to the comprehensive import cost support from the US market and premiums, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. The focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On September 19th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 26 with a decrease of 1, in Tianjin it was 26 with an increase of 19, in Rizhao it was - 54 with a decrease of 21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 64 with a decrease of 21, in Dongguan it was - 64 with a decrease of 11, in Zhanjiang it was - 24, and in Fangcheng it was - 64 with a decrease of 21. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 136 with a decrease of 19 [6] - **Spread**: The M1 - M5 spread was 228, the M1 - RM1 spread, the RM1 - 5 spread, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 360 with an increase of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 492 with a decrease of 31 [6][7] 3.2 Supply Situation - **International**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 63%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the production areas, and the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline. There may be room for a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit area in the future [7] - **Domestic**: In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start to decline, but the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. Currently, the progress of soybean purchases for November is slow, and the supply of soybeans in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, but the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8] 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming will support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of the downstream soybean meal has increased [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean stocks have increased to a high level [8] - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year and is expected to be in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.5 Market Outlook - The futures market of soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [8]