Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The meeting between China and the US today fell short of expectations, and the price of US soybeans declined. The profitability of domestic soybean purchases has improved but remains poor. The domestic futures market has a low multiple, and the short - term expectation is for a rebound to repair the crushing profit. However, the current abundant supply of near - term soybean meal spot and the expected abundant global soybean supply in the long - term limit the upside potential of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent evolution of drivers brought about by China - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - On October 30, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was - 24, with a decrease of - 25. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions showed various declines, such as - 25 in Tianjin and Rizhao [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 73, with an increase of 13. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with a change of 23 [6][7]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, with a decrease of - 3; the price difference between the main contracts was 448, with a decrease of - 16 [7]. 3.2 Ascending and Descending Premiums and Profit Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate and the ascending and descending premiums of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 were presented, along with the change in the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans. For example, the spot crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 261.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 [7]. 3.3 Supply Situation - The USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be adjusted downward. Exports depend on China - US policies. As of October 25, according to CONAB data, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. It is expected that domestic soybean meal will start to reduce inventory in November, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7]. 3.4 Demand Situation - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports current demand. However, the current hog farming is showing losses, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of hogs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. The downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's estimated ending inventory of US soybeans for the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be revised downward. Exports depend on Sino-US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared to 17.6% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 27.7%. Some areas in Brazil have experienced dry weather recently, but its persistence is not strong, and the expected impact is limited [7]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain. In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The downstream trading of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. Overall, China's soybean purchase contracts are relatively poor, the domestic market valuation is low, the sowing in Brazil is going smoothly, and there are no obvious problems with the planting weather. The supply pressure of domestic soybean and soybean meal spot is still large. Before the Sino - US policy is clear, the market has no obvious driving force and will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region. For example, in Zhangjiagang it is 28, in Dongguan it is not provided, in Zhanjiang it is 48, and in Fangcheng it is 28. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 55, with a decrease of 9 [6]. - **Spread Data**: The spread of RM1 - 5 is 1500, with a decrease of 13; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal on the main contract is 597, with a decrease of 11 [7]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - **USDA Estimate**: The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans for the 25/26 season is 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be revised downward, with exports depending on Sino - US policies [7]. - **Brazilian Planting**: As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared to 17.6% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 27.7%. Some areas in Brazil have experienced dry weather recently, but its persistence is not strong, and the expected impact is limited [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The downstream trading of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].

Group 1: Report Core View - Due to the uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply, the market has a pessimistic outlook. However, the current poor domestic soybean purchase profit is expected to affect the pace of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino-US policies and South American weather in the later stage [8] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Basis Data - On October 20th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was 105, down 27; in Tianjin, it was 85, down 27; in Rizhao, it was 75, down 7. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 5, down 47 [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 89, down 31 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts was 545, down 17 [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [8] Supply and Demand Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has a certain downward adjustment space. The planting of Brazilian soybeans has begun, and as of October 14th, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% in the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. China cannot purchase US soybeans, and the source of soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high substitution ratio. The downstream trading of soybean meal is apparently light, but the提货 is good [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Data Daily [4] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center [5] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [5] - Date: September 25, 2025 [5] Report Core View - The supply of soybeans in the US may decrease due to lower excellent and good rates and less rainfall in the producing areas, while the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, and the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented. The demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories in the short term, but the policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The inventory of domestic soybeans and oil - mill soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are rising. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile [7][8]. Summary by Directory Basis and Spread Data - On September 24, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian was 90, down 2; in Tianjin it was 50, down 22; in Rizhao it was 0, down 2; in Zhangjiagang it was - 30, down 22; in Dongguan it was - 30, down 2; in Fangcheng it was - 10, up 18. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 152, down 47. The M1 - 5 spread was 181, down 14 [6]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 76, down 43. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 350, and the price difference on the main contract was 535, up 54 [7]. Premium and Discount, Crushing Profit and Inventory Data - The premium and discount of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 shows different trends in different months. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate and the crushing profit per ton are also presented. The inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in China shows an upward trend in recent years, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is rising but lower than last year. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The excellent and good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%, and it may continue to decline. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, but the purchase progress for November is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented [7][8]. - **Demand**: The short - term high inventory of livestock and poultry breeding supports the feed demand. The policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the downstream spot trading volume has improved this week [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and it is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8]. Market Outlook - The spread between the GNP premiums and discounts of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans is as high as 100 cents, and the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the change of premiums and discounts [8].

Report Summary of Agricultural Products (Soybean and Meal) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The domestic soybean purchase margin has worsened. Due to the comprehensive import cost support from the US market and premiums, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. The focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On September 19th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 26 with a decrease of 1, in Tianjin it was 26 with an increase of 19, in Rizhao it was - 54 with a decrease of 21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 64 with a decrease of 21, in Dongguan it was - 64 with a decrease of 11, in Zhanjiang it was - 24, and in Fangcheng it was - 64 with a decrease of 21. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 136 with a decrease of 19 [6] - **Spread**: The M1 - M5 spread was 228, the M1 - RM1 spread, the RM1 - 5 spread, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 360 with an increase of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 492 with a decrease of 31 [6][7] 3.2 Supply Situation - **International**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 63%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the production areas, and the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline. There may be room for a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit area in the future [7] - **Domestic**: In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start to decline, but the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. Currently, the progress of soybean purchases for November is slow, and the supply of soybeans in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, but the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8] 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming will support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of the downstream soybean meal has increased [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean stocks have increased to a high level [8] - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year and is expected to be in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.5 Market Outlook - The futures market of soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [8]