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农产品日报-20251211
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 11:20
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (One star, representing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] 2. Core Views - The domestic soybean market is strong, with policy - side trading showing full - volume transactions and a strong price difference compared to imported soybeans. Short - term focus should be on policy and spot - end performance [2] - German biofuel policy changes may marginally improve palm oil demand, but the high inventory in the Malaysian market cannot be ignored, and palm oil is expected to fluctuate [3] - The domestic market continues with the logic of slow import soybean customs clearance. The soybean and soybean meal futures show different trends, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [5] - Rapeseed meal futures decline slightly, while rapeseed oil futures rise. The rapeseed market is expected to remain strong domestically and weak overseas in the short term [6] - Corn futures are generally oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the grain transportation progress in the Northeast and corn and wheat auctions [7] - Live pig futures continue to weaken, and the market is expected to face a second bottom - testing next year [8] - Egg futures have significant position - reduction, and the medium - long - term fundamentals are expected to improve gradually [9] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Domestic soybeans are strong. Policy - side trading has full - volume transactions with an average price of 4110 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening. Short - term focus on policy and spot - end [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic market follows the slow - clearance logic of imported soybeans. The 01/03 contracts of Dalian soybean futures rise, and the 05 contract is flat. The USDA December report has no adjustment to US soybean data. The US soybean futures are weak. Wait for South American weather changes, be bullish on near - month contracts, and consider going long on the 05 contract at low prices [5] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - German biofuel policy changes may affect the demand structure. The marginal demand for palm oil is expected to improve, but the high - inventory pressure in the Malaysian market exists. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate [3] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal futures decline slightly, and rapeseed oil futures rise. The rapeseed market is expected to be strong domestically and weak overseas in the short term. Pay attention to rapeseed import changes [6] Corn - Corn futures are generally oscillating strongly. Northeast and North Port corn spot prices are stable, while downstream procurement shows different trends. The 03 contract may have a weak correction, and the 05 contract can be considered for long - position layout at low prices [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to weaken, while the spot market is generally stable. After short - term trading on epidemic issues, the market returns to the oversupply logic. A second bottom - testing is expected next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures have significant position - reduction and small price fluctuations. The spot price is stable with some local increases. The short - term price expectation is downward, and the medium - long - term fundamentals are expected to improve [9]