11月以来，猪肉价格呈现持续低迷态势。据中国养猪网监测数据显示，生猪（外三元）价格从11月1日的12.05元/公斤跌至11月24日的11.65元/公斤，下跌 3.3%。 农业农村部部长韩俊11月21日主持召开部常务会议，审议并原则通过《关于加强产能综合调控促进生猪产业高质量发展的意见》。 会议要求，加强生猪产能综合调控，加快构建供需动态适配、规模结构合理、产业链协同提升的生猪产业高质量发展格局。要加强生产和市场监测预警，动 态调整全国能繁母猪正常保有量目标，提早开展逆周期调节，防止出现大的波动。 分析师认为，即将到来的南方腌腊季将在一定程度上提振猪价，但在供强需弱格局未发生明显改变的情况下，猪价反弹幅度有限。 东方证券认为，考虑到当前肥猪和仔猪价格近期已降至年内低点，后续价格有望进一步回落。参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶段，行业大概率开启市 场化去产能。此外，政策端也在持续强化对头部集团场产能的限制，两者叠加下，行业整体去产能有望持续兑现，助力猪价长期上涨。 2025年7月开始，生猪养殖行业步入去产能阶段，三季度统计局能繁母猪存栏量累计下降9万头，10月末全国能繁母猪存栏量降至4000万头以下，较9月末降 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪年报 周期磨底 去产能节奏决定上限 生猪 2025 年 11 月 21 日 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 国信期货研究 Page 2 一、行情回顾 主要结论 2025 年国内生猪处于供应压力逐步兑现的阶段，这种供应压力一方面有前 期能繁母猪存栏增加的滞后影响，另一方面也与行业生产效率提高、PSY 整体水 平上行相关。但由于饲料成本的下降，生猪养殖行业全年大多数时间仍能保持微 利，直接到三季度末，供应压力大幅超过消费的承接能力，才开始进入全面亏损 的阶段。往后来看，根据仔猪出生数据推算到明年二季度，国内生猪供应都处于 增加的格局，对猪市仍将形成较大的压制。而未来供应压力的减轻，还需求行业 去产能兑现。尽管国家有关部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying and capturing turning points in the agricultural sector in 2026, focusing on core indicators and finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector is expected to benefit from changes in supply and demand, with a continued emphasis on a balanced approach of offense and defense [1] - The investment opportunities in the swine breeding sector arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, with a recommendation to focus on major players like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), as well as smaller companies like Tiankang Biological (002100) and Shennong Group (605296) [1] - Despite a generally pessimistic outlook on pig prices based on current data, there is potential for changes within the industry that could lead to investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Pet Food - The pet food sector is characterized by sustained growth and significant market share expansion potential, with export growth serving as a shield for performance and the development of proprietary brands as a spear for future market share increases [2] - The report suggests that companies in the pet food industry should focus on maintaining or exceeding growth expectations for their proprietary brands while leveraging multi-brand operations [2] - Key companies to watch in the pet food sector include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891), Guibao Pet (301498), and Petty (300673), with additional attention on Yuanfei Pet (001222) [2]

Core Insights - Guangdong Tiannong Group Co., Ltd. has officially submitted its application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after two previous attempts were terminated within five years [1][2] - The company is known for its "King of Chickens," the Qingyuan chicken, which holds over 59% market share in its segment, but it faces significant challenges including reliance on the pig farming business [4][5] Company Overview - Tiannong Group's revenue structure shows over 60% dependence on pig farming, leading to performance fluctuations tied to both "pig cycles" and "chicken cycles" [4][9] - The company has experienced a dramatic shift in net profit over the past three years, from a peak of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan [4][11] - The average selling price of Qingyuan chicken has decreased from 37.7 yuan per chicken in 2022 to 30.7 yuan in the first half of 2025, a decline of over 20% [8] Market Position - Tiannong Group ranks first in the Qingyuan chicken market with a market share of 59.3%, and it has developed a comprehensive supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers [7][9] - The market size for Qingyuan chicken is projected to grow from 1.363 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.788 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 3.1 billion yuan by 2029 [7] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 4.8 billion yuan in 2024, with pig farming revenue increasing from 2.587 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.203 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - Tiannong Group's pig farming gross margin is expected to be 470 yuan per pig in 2024, ranking second among large-scale farming enterprises [10] Governance and Capital Structure - The company exhibits a family governance structure, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of voting rights [13] - Tiannong Group has faced challenges in its capital journey, having attempted to list on the A-share market in 2020 and 2022, both of which were terminated [13][15] Debt and Financial Strategy - The company has a high debt ratio, with liabilities reaching approximately 1.334 billion yuan as of August 31, 2025, with 83.13% due within one year [15] - Recent capital operations, including share buybacks and debt management, indicate a strategic move to optimize its capital structure ahead of the IPO [15]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is facing significant financial pressure due to prolonged low prices, leading to a collective action among listed pig companies to supplement their cash flow by reallocating funds from previously planned projects [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The main pig futures contract hit a new low of 11,440 yuan/ton, marking a 17.76% decline over the past three months, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment [1]. - The current supply-demand dynamics in the pig industry remain loose, with no fundamental changes expected, and the anticipated year-end price rebound may not materialize until the second half of 2026 [1][5]. Company Actions - Companies like Tangrenshen and Yisheng shares have announced reallocations of funds from their projects to bolster liquidity, with Tangrenshen repurposing 78.96 million yuan for this purpose [2][3]. - Tangrenshen's financial performance has been adversely affected, reporting a revenue increase of 8.87% to 18.586 billion yuan but a net loss of 365 million yuan, with a debt ratio reaching a historical high of 65.51% [2][3]. Market Conditions - The pig price has been on a downward trend, with the average price dropping to 11.69 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 28.15%, indicating an oversupply in the market [5][6]. - Despite expectations for a seasonal demand increase, the actual market response has been weak, with the anticipated "腌腊行情" (cured meat demand) failing to significantly uplift prices [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig price will continue to fluctuate downward in the short to medium term, with a potential turning point not expected until the second half of 2026 as the industry undergoes necessary capacity adjustments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tangrenshen, has decided to terminate the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" due to ongoing pressure from declining pig prices, which have fallen to 12.64 yuan/kg, a 27.4% year-on-year decrease, leading to significant financial strain [1][3][8] Financial Performance - Tangrenshen's third-quarter breeding cost reached 13.3 yuan/kg, which is above the current market price, resulting in a loss of 3.05 billion yuan for the quarter [3][6] - The company's asset-liability ratio has risen to 65.51%, indicating increased financial pressure, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 0.8 and a current ratio of 0.97 [1][4][5] - The company has reported a cumulative net profit loss of 12.32 billion yuan over the past five years, with three years of profit and two years of loss [6] Project Termination and Fund Allocation - The termination of the "Dongchong Phase III" project was part of a larger fundraising initiative where Tangrenshen raised 1.14 billion yuan in 2022, with 580 million yuan of unused funds redirected to a new project [2][3] - The company plans to adopt a lighter asset operation model for its pig breeding business, focusing on leasing and partnerships [2] Industry Context - The pig farming industry has seen several companies, including Tian Kang Biological and Wens Foodstuffs, halt expansion projects due to increased market competition and declining prices [3][6] - The current pig price cycle has been characterized by a prolonged downturn, with prices dropping significantly since mid-2024, further exacerbating the financial challenges faced by pig farming companies [6][8] Financing Strategy - In response to financial pressures, Tangrenshen is initiating new financing efforts, including the issuance of short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, aimed at repaying debts and supplementing working capital [7]

重庆女博士在广东养鸡养猪，去年净赚8.9亿元！儿子、侄子、学生也是公司高管，将赴香港IPO 记者|鄢银婵 一个女博士，靠养鸡养出一个IPO！ 近日，广东天农集团股份有限公司（下称天农集团）正式递表港交所。天农集团养的是"鸡中之王"清远 鸡，在该细分市场占比超59%。创始人张正芬博士与丈夫肖文清，在20年间将清远鸡从种源退化的困境 中拯救出来，如今年出栏超3200万只。 不过，这家看似光环耀眼的企业，眼下却面临着诸多"资本故事"难题。 天农集团的真身，其实是一家超六成收入依赖生猪业务的企业，天农集团的业绩也因此被套上"猪周 期"与"鸡周期"双重枷锁，过去3年净利润从最高盈利8.9亿元到最多亏损6.7亿元。与此同时，鲜明的家 族化治理印记、一波三折的上市之路以及与日俱增的短期债务，都增加了公司闯关港股的挑战。 将清远鸡产业化 毛利率波动较大 天农集团冲刺港股背后，是一位女博士将地方名鸡从濒临灭绝带向资本市场的"高光"故事。 张正芬，1963年出生于重庆，中国农业大学博士，早年间被同学称为"养鸡西施"，有过在高校任教和国 内头部农牧企业温氏集团担任技术总监的经历。2003年，她与同在温氏工作的丈夫肖文清决定辞去高薪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group, a poultry and pig farming company, is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, highlighting its success in revitalizing the Qingyuan chicken breed while facing significant challenges related to its dual reliance on both chicken and pig farming [1][11]. Company Overview - Founded by Zhang Zhengfen and her husband, the company focuses on the industrialization of Qingyuan chicken, achieving a market share of over 59% in this niche [1][8]. - The company has developed a complete breeding system for Qingyuan chicken, emphasizing high-quality, natural farming practices [5][8]. Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue structure shows over 60% dependence on pig farming, with pig product revenue increasing from 25.87 billion to 32.03 billion from 2022 to 2024 [11][12]. - The company's net profit has fluctuated significantly, from a peak of 8.9 billion in 2022 to a loss of 6.7 billion in 2023, before rebounding in 2024 [12][13]. - Average selling prices for Qingyuan chicken have decreased by over 20% from 2022 to 2025, impacting gross margins which have shown significant volatility [9][12]. Market Position - The market for Qingyuan chicken is expected to grow from 1.363 billion in 2020 to 1.788 billion by 2024, with projections to exceed 3.1 billion by 2029 [8]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers, enhancing its market position [8][11]. Governance and Management - The company exhibits a strong family governance structure, with the founding couple controlling approximately 52.28% of voting rights [14][17]. - The management team includes several family members, indicating a close-knit operational approach [14]. Capital Market Journey - Tian Nong Group has faced challenges in its previous attempts to list on the A-share market, which adds pressure to its current IPO efforts in Hong Kong [16][17]. - The company has engaged in various capital operations, including share buybacks and restructuring, to optimize its financial position ahead of the IPO [16][17]. Debt and Financial Health - The company has a high debt ratio, with liabilities reaching approximately 1.334 billion, of which 83.13% is due within one year [17]. - The financial strategy includes addressing short-term debt pressures while aiming to improve cash flow stability [17].

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group has officially submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its dominance in the Qingyuan chicken market with over 59% market share, while facing challenges due to its significant reliance on the pig farming business and fluctuating profits over the past three years [1][3][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tian Nong Group specializes in the breeding and commercialization of Qingyuan chicken, a premium poultry product, and has successfully increased its output to over 32 million chickens annually [1][3]. - The company was founded by Zhang Zhengfen and her husband, who revitalized the Qingyuan chicken breed from a state of genetic decline, establishing a complete breeding system [5][10]. - The average price of Qingyuan chicken has remained significantly higher than that of other chicken types, with prices ranging from 17.6 to 22.3 yuan per kilogram [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue structure shows that over 60% of its income comes from pig farming, making it vulnerable to both chicken and pig market cycles [9][10]. - The company's net profit has fluctuated dramatically, from a peak of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan over the past three years [1][11]. - The average selling price of its chicken products has decreased by over 20% from 2022 to 2025, indicating market pressures [8][12]. Group 3: Governance and Capital Structure - The company exhibits a strong family governance structure, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of the voting rights [15][18]. - Tian Nong Group has faced challenges in its capital journey, having previously attempted to list on the A-share market before shifting focus to the Hong Kong market [17][18]. - The company has a high debt burden, with over 13.34 billion yuan in outstanding loans, 83.13% of which are due within one year [18].

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group has officially submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on the production of Qingyuan chicken, which holds over 59% market share in its segment [1][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded by Dr. Zhang Zhengfen and her husband, the company has transformed Qingyuan chicken from a declining breed to a thriving business, with an annual output exceeding 32 million chickens [1][3]. - The company has developed a complete breeding system for Qingyuan chicken, emphasizing natural rearing methods and high-quality feed [5][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tian Nong Group's revenue structure is heavily reliant on pig farming, with over 60% of its income derived from this sector, making it vulnerable to both "pig cycle" and "chicken cycle" fluctuations [2][10]. - The company's net profit has fluctuated significantly over the past three years, ranging from a peak profit of 890 million yuan to a loss of 670 million yuan [2][12]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, with pig farming revenue increasing from 2.587 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.203 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11]. Group 3: Market Position and Product Pricing - Tian Nong Group ranks first in the Qingyuan chicken market with a market share of 59.3%, supported by a robust supply chain involving over 4,000 poultry farmers [9][10]. - The average selling price of Qingyuan chicken has decreased from 37.7 yuan per chicken in 2022 to 30.7 yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a decline of over 20% [9][12]. Group 4: Governance and Capital Structure - The company exhibits a strong family governance structure, with the founders controlling approximately 52.28% of the voting rights [14][16]. - Tian Nong Group has faced challenges in its capital journey, having previously attempted to list on the A-share market before shifting focus to the Hong Kong market [16][17]. - The company has a high debt burden, with a debt-to-asset ratio consistently above 65%, and approximately 83.13% of its outstanding loans due within one year [17].