笔者所在期货风险管理公司从A企业实际需求与市场走势出发，为其设计买入增强熔断累计看跌期权方 案。该方案以LH2509合约为标的，由敲入价和敲出价共同构成累计区间，并实行每日观察收盘价、每 日结算模式。2025年4月24日，A企业以买入LH2509合约增强熔断累计看跌期权，每日观察16吨。 执行过程 增强熔断累计看跌期权可以从两个方面实现套保点位增强：其一，当LH2509合约收盘价落在 14060~14300元/吨时，总能获得高于当前盘面价格的空单进行库存套保；其二，当盘面价格快速下跌， 并跌破敲出价格14060元/吨时，一次性获得成本为期权期初入场价14180元/吨的剩余未观察总量空单， 获得的空单点位一定高于熔断当日收盘价格，避免传统累计结构下因敲出而无法获得套保空单的弊端。 从市场行情看，2025年上半年，生猪价格持续震荡，且头均养殖利润收窄至100元/头以下。对生猪养殖 企业而言，使用场外期权进行套保，不仅能够实现风险管理，还能降低资金占用、提高资金使用效率。 项目流程 定制套保方案 2025年4月，我国对进口自美国的大豆、玉米及肉类产品加征关税，导致进口成本上升，生猪现货价格 随之上涨。此外，二次育肥 ...

在生猪养殖行业从小农经济迈向高质量发展的过程中，"猪周期"始终绕不过去。在传统"猪周期"中，中 小养殖场追涨杀跌的羊群效应、规模企业随行就市的经营困境、全行业"赚半年亏三年"的畸形生态，本 质是缺乏有效的远期价格指引和风险对冲机制。 生猪期货的上市，为产业链植入市场化风险化解中枢。其价格发现功能逐步成为行业"晴雨表"，头部企 业通过期货走势预判供需变化，科学规划产能与出栏节奏，使"以销定产"从理念走向实践。更为深刻的 是，基差贸易、含权贸易等基于生猪期货衍生工具的出现，将复杂的套保操作转化为养殖端可理解 的"远期现货订单"，大幅降低风险管理门槛。 当中小养殖场能在生猪出栏前锁定销售价格，当大型养殖场依托期货衍生工具组合降低资金占用，农业 生产的计划性与确定性获得质的飞跃——这正是金融工具重构产业逻辑的核心价值。 可以说，金融衍生工具的创新应用，正悄然改变农业风险管理的传统范式。基差贸易重塑了定价逻辑， 含权贸易创造了风险收益的弹性空间，"期货+订单"模式则重构了产业链协作关系。这些金融工具的组 合运用，使价格波动从不可控的威胁转化为可管理的变量。市场主体不再被动承受市场冲击，而是通过 专业分工实现风险的有效转 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419.HK) reported a revenue increase of 24.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 11.695 billion yuan, but net profit declined by 24.06% to 1.36 billion yuan, indicating a situation of "increased revenue without increased profit" [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's sales volume of live pigs reached 5.1174 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, while sales of yellow feather broilers were 42.7033 million heads, up 7.2% [1][2] - The revenue from the pig segment was approximately 9.879 billion yuan, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, but the sales cost increased by 17.3% to 9.666 billion yuan, nearly equaling the entire revenue of the pig segment [2][3] Segment Performance - The poultry segment reported revenue of about 1.336 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, with average prices for yellow feather broilers declining by 20.9% due to weak demand in the catering industry [3] - The auxiliary products segment achieved revenue of approximately 481 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [3] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The company noted that the fluctuation in performance reflects the cyclical nature of the pig industry, with significant past losses and gains influenced by market conditions [4][5] - For the second half of 2025, the company plans to focus on the synergistic development of its three main segments, aiming to enhance market share and operational efficiency [6]

牧原股份 20250821 摘要 牧原股份 2024 年自由现金流转正至约 180 亿元，得益于成本控制和资 本开支下降，2025 年上半年净利润已达 105.3 亿元，全年有望超过去 年，股东回报力度超预期，分红比例达 47.5%。 牧原股份成本控制显著，2025 年 7 月成本降至 11.8 元/公斤，为上市 企业最低，主要通过提升内部效率实现，战略重心已从扩张转向内部优 化和股东回报。 生猪养殖行业进入产能调控阶段，政策趋严限制产能，行业呈现产能波 动减弱、价格波动收窄、价格中枢提升的新特征，利好牧原股份依靠成 本优势获取现金流。 中国生猪养殖行业规模主体占比提升至 70%，散户降至 30%，规模化 养殖企业主导地位增强，有助于稳定市场供应和价格，但需警惕规模化 主体过度扩张导致利润下降。 产业政策从鼓励扩张转向"产能调控"，旨在稳定行业利润，能繁母猪 存栏量呈现下台阶和波动幅度收窄的趋势，2025 年生猪价格超预期， 显示政策有效性。 Q&A 牧原股份在 2025 年上半年取得了哪些超预期的成果？ 牧原股份在 2025 年上半年取得了显著的超预期成果，主要体现在股东回报和 财务状况的改善。首先，公司在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant growth in Muyuan Foods' performance in the first half of 2025 is attributed to increased pig sales and reduced breeding costs, positioning the company favorably in the market [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Muyuan Foods achieved operating revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.53 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 1169.77% [2]. - The company sold 46.91 million pigs, including 38.394 million commercial pigs, 8.291 million piglets, and 225,000 breeding pigs [2]. Cost Management - The breeding cost for pigs decreased to below 12.1 yuan per kilogram by June 2025, with the company managing to keep costs under 12.5 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The overall pig price fluctuated around 14.5 yuan per kilogram in the first half of the year, contributing to improved gross profit margins [2]. Production and Capacity - Muyuan Foods slaughtered 11.4148 million pigs in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 110.87% [3]. - The company's production capacity utilization rate reached 78.72% due to the expansion of sales channels [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively reducing its breeding sow inventory in response to national policies, decreasing from a peak of 3.621 million to 3.43 million by July 2025, with plans to further reduce to 3.3 million by year-end [3]. - Muyuan Foods is expanding into international markets, having established a subsidiary in Vietnam and submitted an application for H-share listing in Hong Kong [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5.002 billion yuan, which represents 47.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, marking a record high [4].

Real Estate - Developers are facing significant inventory pressure, with unsold housing area expected to rise from 670 million square meters in 2023 to 750 million square meters by the end of 2024, and further to 798 million square meters by February 2025 [2] - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale is also increasing, with a projected 2.7 million listings across 100 cities by April 2025, marking an 18.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Developers are employing strategies of "visible stability and hidden price drops," with some properties listed at 85,000 yuan per square meter but selling for under 70,000 yuan after discounts [2] - Homeowners are also adjusting prices, with some in Hangzhou reducing their asking prices by 300,000 yuan over four months [2] - For first-time buyers, this period presents a "window of opportunity" as down payments and monthly payments are lower than rental costs, but caution is advised in cities with high inventory and population outflow [2] Automotive - The luxury car market has experienced a significant shift, with traditional brands like BMW, Audi, and Mercedes-Benz drastically reducing prices due to severe overcapacity, with industry utilization rates potentially dropping below 60% [5] - Promotions and discounts are rampant, with prices for models like BMW starting at 150,000 yuan and Audi at 160,000 yuan [5] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of "residual value traps" and to prefer new electric vehicles over older gasoline models [5] Home Appliances - The home appliance market has seen a price drop since the second half of 2024, with reductions ranging from 300 to 500 yuan for common products like TVs and refrigerators [7] - The average price of a 75-inch 4K TV has fallen below 4,000 yuan, a 42% decrease compared to three years ago, while energy-efficient air conditioners are now available for under 2,000 yuan [7] - The price reductions are attributed to rapid technological advancements and high inventory levels, creating a favorable buying opportunity for consumers [7] Pork Industry - The pork market is experiencing a price decline, with average prices dropping to 14 yuan per kilogram in many regions, and some areas seeing prices fall to 10 yuan [9] - Despite the lower prices, industry insiders warn of potential losses, with predictions of a 300 yuan loss per pig sold, leading to possible bankruptcies if conditions do not improve [11] - The government is implementing measures to control production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing the weight of pigs being sold [11] General Market Trends - A broader trend of price reductions is observed across various sectors, including luxury goods, fruits, and coffee, indicating a potential economic slowdown [13] - Consumers are encouraged to be mindful of spending and to focus on self-improvement as a long-term investment strategy [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The rhythm of pig sales led to July pig prices rising less than expected, but the outlook for future prices remains optimistic. In July 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 14.55 yuan/kg, up 1.89% month-on-month but down 23.21% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in July was 4.1583 million heads, down 3.67% month-on-month but up 1.80% year-on-year. The completion rate of pig sales in July was 97.11% of the planned output, with an increase of 6.60% in planned output for August compared to July [6][15][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The increase in pig prices in July was less than expected due to the accelerated growth rate of pigs in May and June, leading to earlier sales in July. The price peaked at 15.46 yuan/kg on July 3 and fell to 14.09 yuan/kg by the end of July. The supply gap and supportive policies suggest a positive outlook for future prices [6][15][18]. Supply and Structure - As of August 7, 2025, the proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the sales structure decreased, while the proportion of breeding stock increased. The breeding stock increased by 0.52% month-on-month, and the average profit per head for self-breeding and self-raising in July was 101.66 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 304.30% [7][16][22]. Corporate Performance - In July 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 15.2799 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 24.82%. The average selling prices for major companies increased month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope rising by 1.6% to 3.4% [8][28][33].

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接A（012724），国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF联接C （012725）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 根据wind数据，养殖ETF（159865）实时盘中净流入3400万份，资金抢筹养殖资产。 山西证券表示，"猪周期"表面上是价格周期，本质上是产能周期。由于生猪行业生物资产的特殊性，从 母猪补栏到育肥猪出栏需要一定的时间周期。从历史实证看，产能回升不必然影响盈利周期的展开演 绎，关键看产能回升的速度。2019年以来这轮周期下行底部末端的整体财务状况是2006年以来压力最大 的。由于受到资金和负债的较大约束，因此弥补亏损和降低负债反而是当前行业进入盈利周期后的主基 调，而不是快速加产能。虽然生猪养殖行业从2024Q2开始进入盈利周期，但是从负债率的平均下降速 度来看，行业整体降负债仍 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery cycle in the feed industry and marginal improvements in livestock farming, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [5][6] - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock segment, is experiencing fluctuations in prices, with a noted decrease in pig prices and an increase in chicken prices, indicating a complex market dynamic [6][8] - The AI pharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant commercial validation, as evidenced by a major contract signed by Jingtai Holdings, reflecting the growing demand for AI technologies in drug development [11][14] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,665.92, up by 0.50% [4] - The agricultural sector's performance is highlighted by a 2.52% increase in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, ranking it 10th among sub-industries [6] - The robotics industry is also gaining traction, with over 1,500 robot products showcased at the World Robot Conference, indicating a growing interest in automation technologies [8] Industry Analysis - The feed industry is expected to see a recovery due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving conditions in the livestock sector, particularly for companies like Haida Group [6][8] - The pig farming industry is entering a profit cycle, but the overall debt reduction trend suggests a cautious approach to capacity expansion [6][8] - The AI pharmaceutical industry is on the brink of an explosive growth phase, with increasing collaborations between AI firms and traditional pharmaceutical companies [11][14] Company Insights - Wanchen Group is positioned as a leading player in the snack food market, with a significant revenue increase of 247.9% in 2024, driven by its aggressive store expansion strategy [19][20] - The company has established a robust supply chain and operational capabilities, which are critical for maintaining its market leadership in the competitive snack food sector [20] - The report forecasts continued revenue growth for Wanchen Group, with projected revenues of 551.32 billion, 670.39 billion, and 792.89 billion from 2025 to 2027 [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development, Wen's Shares, and others [7]. Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on the recovery cycle of feed and the marginal improvement in breeding [1]. - The pig price has decreased week-on-week, with average prices in key provinces showing a decline [3]. - The feed industry is expected to see a bottoming out and recovery due to the decline in upstream raw material prices and improvements in the downstream breeding sector [3]. - The report highlights the potential growth of Haida Group's overseas feed business as a new performance growth point [3]. Industry Performance - For the week of August 4 to August 10, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.23%, while the agriculture sector increased by 2.52%, ranking 10th among sectors [2][24]. - The top-performing sub-industries included broiler chicken breeding, fruit and vegetable processing, and pig breeding [2][24]. Pig Breeding Sector - As of August 8, the average price of external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan was 13.30, 15.39, and 13.83 yuan/kg, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.92%, 4.05%, and 3.82% [3][33]. - The average pork price was 20.41 yuan/kg, down 0.92% from the previous week [3][33]. - The self-breeding profit was 45.13 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was -134.14 yuan/head [3][33]. Poultry Sector - As of August 8, the weekly price of white feather broiler chickens was 7.14 yuan/kg, up 4.54% week-on-week [3][47]. - The price of broiler chicks was 3.13 yuan/chick, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 21.79% [3][47]. - The profit from chicken breeding was 0.62 yuan/chick, while egg prices fell by 6.94% to 6.70 yuan/kg [3][47]. Feed Processing Sector - In June 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 27.67 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [54]. - The production of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premix feed saw year-on-year growth of 6.6%, 3.4%, and 8.7%, respectively [54]. Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Wen's Shares, Shengnong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, and New Hope in the pig breeding sector due to expected profitability recovery starting from Q2 2024 [4]. - It also highlights the potential of domestic pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming years [5].