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中国买家杀了个回马枪,订了20船巴西大豆!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 07:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics in China's soybean imports, highlighting a recent decision by Chinese importers to purchase approximately 20 shipments of Brazilian soybeans due to lower prices, despite expectations of increased U.S. soybean exports to China amid easing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese buyers previously slowed down Brazilian soybean purchases due to high prices, but have resumed buying as prices have decreased, making Brazilian soybeans more attractive compared to U.S. soybeans [3][5]. - The price of U.S. soybeans has risen to a near 15-month high due to positive signals regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, which has led to a decrease in the premium of Brazilian soybeans [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - China's annual soybean import demand is around 100 million tons, with over 80 million tons of South American soybeans exported to China this year, significantly reducing the domestic supply gap to approximately 10 million tons [7]. - The renewed purchases of Brazilian soybeans by Chinese buyers indicate a further reduction in market space for U.S. soybeans, as the market share of U.S. soybeans in China has been declining in recent years [7]. Group 3: Price Trends - The expectation of sufficient imported soybean supply limits the likelihood of significant increases in soybean meal prices, especially with the recent announcement of tariff adjustments on U.S. imports [9][10]. - The stable demand for soybean meal, supported by high inventory levels and strong livestock populations, suggests that while there is potential for price increases, significant fluctuations are unlikely in the short term, with prices expected to range between 2,900 and 3,300 yuan per ton [10].