受阿根廷大豆出口关税免除政策影响，中国大量进口阿根廷大豆，打消四季度缺口担忧，由此导致9月 国内豆粕现货价格重心环比下移。展望10月份豆粕市场，通过对市场驱动因素梳理发现，10月份国内豆 粕现货压力或进一步释放，预计价格将以低位震荡为主。 根据卓创资讯统计，9月43%蛋白豆粕月均价为3008元／吨，环比8月跌20元／吨，跌幅0.67%，较去年 同期跌88元／吨，跌幅2.84%。9月国内压榨企业大豆和豆粕库存维持高位，以催促提货为主。下游整 体采购情绪谨慎，叠加阿根廷取消大豆出口税导致进口成本下滑，导致豆粕价格下跌。根据卓创资讯统 计，全国受访119家重要油厂9月大豆压榨总量为962.91万吨，环比8月下降21.03万吨。基差方面，截至9 月30日，国内豆粕现货基差为41元／吨，较月初4元／吨涨37元／吨，现货基差进一步走强。 国际市场，一方面市场继续关注中美有关贸易问题的接触进展，中国大幅减少美豆进口，迄今尚未订购 一船美国新作大豆。而在巴西方面，CONAB数据显示，截至10月4日，巴西大豆播种率为8.2%，快于 去年同期的5.1%，接近五年均值9.4%的水平，市场丰产预期稳固。综合来看，国际市场影响偏中性。 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: Supply improvement is expected, and prices are likely to run weakly. Although the cost provides support, prices are unlikely to drop significantly. [5][7] - **Oils and Fats**: Fundamental support remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The decline in palm oil inventory accumulation and the supply gap in rapeseed before November are expected to limit the downward adjustment range of oil prices. [78][79] Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of September 19, the spot price in East China was 2,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The M2601 contract closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton week-on-week. The basis price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 01 - 90 yuan/ton. [7][9] 2. Fundamental Data Review - **Price**: Spot and futures prices of soybean meal declined, while the basis price increased. The price difference between regions showed different trends. [13] - **Supply**: The USDA September supply and demand report adjusted the US soybean planting area, yield, and ending stocks. Brazil has started sowing, and the domestic supply is abundant. [7] - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. [7] - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is estimated to be 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost has risen to 3,030 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Key Data Tracking - **Global Supply and Demand**: Global soybean supply and demand are tightening, with production declining to 426 million tons and the production-consumption gap narrowing to 1.98 million tons. [15] - **US Soybean Inventory-to-Sales Ratio**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio has tightened to 6.89%. [25] - **Pressing and Export Demand**: As of the week of September 4, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 50.1059 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% compared to the same period last year. [26] - **Soybean Growth**: As of September 12, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and the harvest progress was 5%. [31] - **Brazilian Export Sales**: As of the latest data, Brazil's MT sales progress reached 91.94%, and the overall sales progress was good. [32] - **Weather Conditions**: In the next two weeks, precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas will be low, while precipitation in the main Brazilian soybean-producing areas will improve. [39] - **US Soybean Planting Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,135 cents/bushel. [44] - **Import and Purchase**: The domestic purchase of Brazilian vessels in the near term is progressing steadily and quickly, while the purchase of vessels in the far term is slow. The domestic soybean supply is abundant before November, but the supply may be insufficient after November. [58] - **Livestock Inventory**: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the demand for soybean meal, and the bottom demand support for soybean meal is strengthened. [76] Oils and Fats 1. Market Review - As of the week of September 19, the palm oil 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 221 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton. [79] 2. Fundamental Data Review - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB August report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 2.2 million tons, in line with market expectations. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][85] - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA September report adjusted the US soybean production and ending stocks, with a neutral to bearish impact. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the short term, but the supply may tighten after November. [79] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed have affected imports, and there is a supply gap before November, which supports the price of rapeseed oil. However, policy uncertainties and high inventory levels limit the room for price increases. [79] 3. Key Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB August report had a neutral impact. In September, the production is expected to decline, and the export demand remains, so the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. [79][96] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month-on-month to 2.53 million tons. The production in June rebounded strongly, but the demand was also strong, resulting in a continued decline in inventory. [105] - **Indian Oil Imports**: In August, India's total vegetable oil imports increased by 4.75% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons. The inventory as of the week of September 1 was 1.865 million tons, an increase of 8.68% month-on-month. [117] - **Malaysian High-Frequency Data**: The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in September showed different trends, with the export volume increasing and the production volume decreasing. [119]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to trade within a range, with the M2601 contract likely to move between 3030 and 3130 yuan/ton [5]. - The oil market is expected to have limited short - term high - level corrections and a bullish long - term outlook [72]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Supply - demand and Price Movement - As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3060 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton monthly. The basis was 01 - 110 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract fluctuated within the range of [3030, 3200] [5]. - In the US, the soybean planting area was unexpectedly reduced to around 81 million acres. The good growth of new crops and insufficient export demand led to a volatile trend. In China, the supply of soybean meal was loose, and the cost increase from Brazilian premiums pushed up the price. After the state - owned reserve auction, the domestic soybean price was weak in November, with strong cost support around 3030 yuan/ton [5]. 1.2 Supply Side - As of August 24, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was around 69%. The ProFarmer survey expected a yield of 53 bushels per acre, but less rainfall in August might affect the high - yield target. In mid - to - early September, there was a risk of a decline in the good - to - excellent rate and yield due to low precipitation and temperature [5]. - The state - owned reserve auction of imported soybeans for November delivery alleviated concerns about supply shortages from November to January. The meeting between China and the US also eased trade concerns. Before November, the arrival of soybeans in China remained high, and the weekly crushing volume was over 2.2 million tons, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [5]. 1.3 Demand Side - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with the feed demand increasing by more than 5% year - on - year. Due to the improved cost - effectiveness of soybean meal, the proportion of soybean meal added in feed increased by 1 percentage point year - on - year. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year will increase by more than 5% year - on - year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons [5]. - As of August 22, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased slightly to 6.8253 million tons, up 269,400 tons monthly and down 394,000 tons year - on - year (a decrease of 5.46%). The soybean meal inventory continued to increase slightly to 1.0533 million tons, up 11,700 tons monthly and down 445,300 tons year - on - year (a decrease of 29.71%) [5]. 1.4 Cost Side - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents per bushel. The bottom price of US soybeans was expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. Based on the latest Brazilian premium of 285X, the exchange rate of 7.18, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.8, the bottom price of domestic soybean meal cost rose to 3060 yuan/ton [5]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - The M2601 contract should be mainly traded within the range. Long positions can be established at the lower end of the range, and positions can be gradually reduced at high levels. Spot enterprises can increase their positions on a rolling basis [5]. 2. Global Soybean Supply - demand - The global soybean supply tightened as the US soybean planting area decreased, and the global soybean output was reduced to 426 million tons. With high demand, the difference between production and consumption narrowed to 1.29 million tons [6]. 3. US Soybean Inventory - sales Ratio and Demand - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio tightened as the planting area decreased, and the output dropped to 4.292 billion bushels, with the inventory - sales ratio narrowing to 6.66% [18]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.99 dollars per bushel, up 14.12% week - on - week and down 0.33% year - on - year. From 2024/25, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans reached 49.279891 million tons, with 21.4736 million tons exported to China, accounting for 43.57% [18]. 4. US Soybean Growth - As of the week of August 22, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans in 18 states was 69%, up 1% week - on - week and higher than 67% in the same period last year [20]. 5. Brazilian Soybean Export - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT soybeans reached 88.72%, lower than 90.38% in the same period last year, but the overall sales progress was good due to the large increase in production this year [28]. 6. US Soybean Main - producing Area Climate - In the next two weeks, the main soybean - producing areas in the US will have less precipitation and lower temperatures, which is unfavorable for the improvement of the good - to - excellent rate. It is difficult for the US soybean yield to reach 53.7 bushels per acre [32]. 7. US Soybean Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 1135 cents per bushel. With a maximum loss of 150 cents per bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans was expected to be around 980 cents per bushel. Supported by the planting cost and the strong international vegetable oil price, the downside space of US soybeans was limited [40]. 8. Premium and Pressing Profit - The Brazilian soybean premium was stable and strong as the sales pressure weakened at the end of the sales season, and global demand was strong. The US soybean premium was also strong due to the tightened inventory - sales ratio and demand for crushing and export [42]. - The domestic soybean import and pressing profit was in the profit range, but the pressing profit of US soybeans was in continuous loss due to the tariff increase from Sino - US trade. Domestic enterprises actively purchased Brazilian shipments from August to September, but there were no purchases of US soybean shipments after November, increasing the probability of a supply gap from November to January [47]. 9. Theoretical Cost of Soybean Meal - Based on the Olam Brazilian premium of 285X in October, the cost of soybean meal was estimated to be around 3060 yuan/ton. Using the US West Coast premium of 268SX in October, the cost was around 3020 yuan/ton [50]. 10. Soybean Purchase and Arrival - The purchase of near - term shipments was progressing steadily and quickly, with the purchase progress of September shipments reaching 100%. The purchase of long - term shipments was slow due to the loss of pressing profit and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade [56]. - Before September, the arrival of soybeans in China was around 10 million tons, with sufficient supply and a stockpiling trend. After November, insufficient arrivals might lead to a phased price increase [56]. 11. Demand for Soybean Meal - The high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for soybean meal, with the bottom demand support strengthened [70]. 12. Oil Market 12.1 Price Movement - As of August 29, the palm oil 01 contract rose 398 yuan/ton to 9316 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract rose 200 yuan/ton to 8358 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 340 yuan/ton to 9789 yuan/ton. The prices of the three major oils first rose sharply and then fell back [74]. 12.2 Palm Oil - In August, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil rebounded strongly, while the production growth was limited, and the inventory accumulation speed might slow down. In Indonesia, the inventory continued to decline in June, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. However, the high - level adjustment risk of Malaysian palm oil remained, and the 11 - contract bottom was expected to be between 4400 - 4300. In China, the short - term supply was loose, but the inventory might decrease after October [74]. 12.3 Soybean Oil - The estimated yield of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 53 bushels per acre, and the harvest pressure was increasing. However, the reduction of the sown area in the USDA August report tightened the supply - demand, and the support above the cost line of 1000 cents per bushel was strong. The short - term US soybean 11 - contract was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the bottom between 1040 - 1050. In China, the soybean supply was sufficient before October, but it might tighten after November, which could drive the soybean oil inventory to decrease [74]. 12.4 Rapeseed Oil - China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed tightened the domestic supply before November. However, the improvement of Sino - Australian relations and potential Sino - Canadian negotiations might affect the market. In Canada, the supply might be excessive due to the loss of the Chinese market and expected high - yield [74]. 12.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction phase and go long after the correction [74].

Group 1 - The price of soybean is weak due to increased market supply pressure from policy-driven auction sales and poor demand performance [1] - The price difference between soybean and soybean meal is currently low, indicating a consolidation phase [1] - Import soybeans are performing strongly, supported by U.S. biodiesel policies that boost the soybean and soybean oil markets [1] Group 2 - China's soybean procurement schedule for November is low, with expectations of tighter supply in Q1 next year, necessitating attention to U.S. soybean exports to China [1] - Domestic soybeans need to be monitored for weather, policy changes, and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [1] - Global oilseed strength driven by biodiesel policies is leading to increased soybean crushing, indicating a shift towards oil extraction [1] Group 3 - In Q4 and Q1 next year, the U.S. tariff policy is affecting Brazilian soybean sales, which are over 80%, despite high premiums [1] - The expected soybean arrival volume from August to October is 10 million tons, indicating sufficient supply for Q4, but potential shortages in Q1 next year [1] - Weather conditions in major U.S. soybean-producing areas are expected to be slightly cooler with less rainfall, posing challenges for new crop growth [1] Group 4 - Uncertainties in China-U.S. trade may lead to a continued divergence between strong external oil prices and weak meal prices, reducing the correlation between domestic soybean meal and U.S. soybeans [1] - If no trade agreement is reached by year-end, the soybean shortfall in Q4 and Q1 next year could strengthen soybean meal prices, leading to a cautious bullish outlook for soybean meal in the medium to long term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market has shifted to a bullish trend driven by favorable USDA report data and strong performance of rapeseed meal, with soybean meal prices rising over 2% on August 13 [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The USDA's August supply and demand report unexpectedly lowered the new season's soybean harvesting area to 80.1 million acres, leading to a decrease in production and ending stocks, tightening the supply-demand relationship for U.S. soybeans [2]. - The average national soybean meal price reached 3,079 CNY/ton on August 13, an increase of 84 CNY/ton from the previous period, with coastal regions seeing prices near 3,000 CNY/ton [2]. Inventory Trends - National soybean meal inventory has shown a decline for two consecutive weeks, indicating a potential peak in inventory levels for the year, with the inventory at 949,000 tons as of the first week of August, down 53,000 tons from its high [4]. - Upstream companies are actively managing production plans to control inventory levels, which may limit soybean meal prices from exceeding the late July peak [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Short-term upstream operating levels are expected to remain high due to raw material support, while market demand shows resilience but lacks significant growth potential [6]. - China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons, a historical high for the period, but are expected to decline seasonally as Brazilian shipments slow down [6]. - The tightening procurement window for soybeans is anticipated to lead to increased import costs, which will likely boost confidence among industry players and support a rise in soybean meal prices [6]. Price Projections - The market sentiment is currently bullish due to strong cost support and the performance of substitute products, although there may be slight downward pressure on prices due to cautious downstream behavior and traders locking in profits [8]. - It is expected that soybean meal prices will maintain an upward trend, potentially reaching around 3,100 CNY/ton in coastal regions by early September [8].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with spot prices in coastal areas ranging between 2920-2980 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of approximately 10 CNY/ton in various regions [1] Price Overview - As of August 12, soybean meal prices in major markets are as follows: - Beijing: 3010 CNY/ton for 43% crude protein [2] - Tianjin: 3000 CNY/ton for 43% crude protein [2] - Tangshan: 3010 CNY/ton for 43% crude protein [2] - The futures market shows the main soybean meal contract closing at 3091.00 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.72% and a trading volume of 1,107,230 contracts [2] Shipping and Inventory Data - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported a total of 684,900 tons of soybean meal, a significant decrease from 2,132,700 tons in the same period last year, although the daily average shipment increased by 17.75% [3] - As of August 8, the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country is 1 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 40,000 tons but a year-on-year decline of 500,000 tons [3] Market Analysis - Weather forecasts indicate less rainfall in the eastern and central plains, which may negatively impact soybean growth. The market is advised to monitor weather changes closely [4] - Following statements from the U.S. President regarding increased soybean imports from China, U.S. soybean prices surged, leading to a significant drop in domestic soybean meal prices. Short-term fluctuations in soybean meal prices are anticipated [4]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that soybean meal should be mainly considered from an interval oscillation perspective. Upward breakthrough requires intensified trade wars and South American planting problems, while downward breakthrough needs domestic consumption slump and further supply relaxation. Recently, soybean meal may remain weak due to large inventories and sufficient external market supply. The opportunity for price increase may come from the National Day stocking in September, the domestic soybean de - stocking window, and the improvement of crushing margins from South American planting transactions. Additionally, the soybean oil segment may be relatively stronger due to the year - end palm oil de - stocking expectation and the B50 policy expectation [1][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak in mid - August due to good提货 - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, about 230,000 tons higher than last year, and oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons, about 300,000 tons lower than last year. Feed enterprise inventory days were 8.19 days, 0.76 days higher than last year. Overall, the current domestic protein inventory is similar to last year [3]. - From September 2024 to August 2025, 107.83 million tons of soybeans were purchased, compared with 111.89 million tons in the same period last year. Considering the port soybean inventory difference in October 2024, the annual supply actually decreased by about 2 million tons. As of July 22, 2025, 6.2 million tons were purchased for September 2025 and 1.06 million tons for October. With similar supply and increased consumption, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories may peak around mid - August [4]. 2. The supply pressure of external market soybeans from August to January of the following year is slightly greater than last year, and the expected output growth rate of South American new crops slows down - For US soybeans, a good harvest is likely this year, but it's difficult to achieve a maximum trend yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. Assuming the yield is adjusted down to 51.5 - 52 bushels per acre, the 2025/26 output may be reduced by about 1 - 2 million tons, and the new - crop export volume is expected to decline by 3 - 6 million tons compared with last year [6]. - It is estimated that Brazil's soybean output in 2025 is 169 million tons, and the export volume is expected to be 102 million tons. The shipping volume from August to January is estimated to be 23 - 29 million tons, about 7 million tons higher than last year. The real - world supply pressure from September to January in the external market is higher than last year, and the overall output growth of South American soybeans is expected to be 5 - 6 million tons [6][8]. 3. The import cost of soybeans is expected to maintain an interval oscillation similar to last year - As of July 29, 2025, the price of the November US soybean contract was 1009 cents per bushel, and the planting cost was around 1190 cents per bushel. The US soybean and global soybean new and old crop stock - to - use ratios are slightly better than last year, and the US soybean has support at 955 cents per bushel [10]. - The FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans is about 180 cents per bushel, stronger than last year. If there are results regarding US soybean purchases later, the Brazilian premium may drop by 60 - 70 cents per bushel. The bottom - end interval of external market soybean import costs may remain at around 3600 yuan per ton, with limited upward space [10]. - The domestic soybean spot crushing margin is at the break - even line, as are the September and November contract crushing margins for soybean meal and soybean oil. If domestic downstream soybean meal consumption can maintain a high level, it may skip the inventory pressure in August and directly trade the South American sowing period and the domestic soybean de - stocking period from September to November [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, short - term soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost line due to good weather in the US and sufficient supply in South America. In the North American season, low carry - over stocks and high planting costs will support the price. For soybean meal, high livestock and poultry inventories support demand, and the price is expected to be strong during the de - stocking period [6][93]. - For oils, although there are short - term factors leading to a decline in market sentiment, the fundamentals still support the price. It is expected that the price will experience a limited decline in the short term and then have an upward momentum [93]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Performance - As of July 18, the spot price in East China was 2,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 3,031 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - Brazil's 2024/25 production reached 169 million tons, and China's imports in August are expected to exceed 10 million tons. The domestic oil mill operating rate has risen above 60%, and soybean meal inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, the carry - over stocks of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season are slightly increased, but the supply - demand structure is tightening [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the breeding profit in China has improved, and the high inventories of pigs and poultry support the demand for feed. The proportion of soybean meal in the feed formula has increased year - on - year, and the demand for soybean meal in the second half of the year is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1,141 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 990 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal is around 2,750 - 2,820 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Strategy - For the M2509 contract, be cautious about long positions in the short term and pay attention to the support at around 2,980 yuan/ton. For the M2511 and M2601 contracts, go long at low prices in the long term [6]. 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Performance - As of the week of July 25, the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 8,936 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 yuan/ton to 8,144 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 yuan/ton to 9,457 yuan/ton [93][95]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Shipping data shows that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 decreased by 9.23 - 15.22% compared with the previous month, while the production increased by 6.19 - 11.24% from July 1 - 20. The inventory in Indonesia is in a tight balance, and the price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise after a short - term decline [93]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The high - temperature in the US soybean - producing areas will ease in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans. The EPA's RVO2 draft boosts the demand for biodiesel, and the short - term decline of US soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase in the short term, but the supply will tighten in the fourth quarter [93]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The rainfall in Canada has improved the growth of rapeseed, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The possibility of China restarting the import of Australian rapeseed needs attention [93]. 2.5 Strategy - In the short term, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,800 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Adopt the strategy of going long on dips [93].

Core Insights - The domestic soybean meal market is experiencing a stabilization in prices, with the spot price on June 3 reported at 2929.14 CNY/ton, slightly lower than the futures price of 2935.00 CNY/ton, indicating a discount of 5.86 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market for soybean meal saw a closing price of 2935.00 CNY/ton on June 3, reflecting a decline of 1.05%, with a trading volume of 1,140,522 contracts [2] - The inventory days for domestic feed enterprises have increased to 5.99 days, up by 0.25 days (4.23%) compared to the previous week, but down 12.19% year-on-year [2] Market Analysis - According to Guotou Anxin Futures research, the soybean meal market is facing pressure due to increased supply from accelerated imports of soybeans and higher operating rates at oil mills, leading to a gradual rise in soybean meal inventory [4] - The demand side remains cautious, with purchases primarily driven by essential needs, resulting in a weak basis for spot prices and a lack of upward momentum in soybean meal prices [4] - The market outlook suggests continued fluctuations in soybean meal prices, with potential downward trends unless driven by significant changes in demand or weather conditions [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The current market for soybean meal is experiencing fluctuations due to varying supply and demand dynamics, with significant implications for pricing and trading strategies in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On May 26, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 79,600 tons [1]. - As of May 23, the inventory of imported soybeans in major oil mills was 6.17 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 290,000 tons, but a month-on-month increase of 1.12 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 850,000 tons, which is 1.14 million tons higher than the average of the past three years [1]. - The soybean meal inventory in major oil mills stood at 210,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 90,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 140,000 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 560,000 tons, indicating a historically low level for this time of year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that Brazil is currently in a concentrated export phase for soybeans, while the U.S. is in the soybean planting stage, with a planting rate of 66% as of the week ending May 18, compared to 50% last year and a five-year average of 53% [2]. - The record high yield of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year has led to expectations of increased imports in May, although delays in customs have hindered April's arrivals [2]. - Concerns over reduced soybean yields in Argentina due to heavy rainfall have led to slight rebounds in both domestic and international markets, although the overall impact remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Zhengxin Futures indicates that the short-term cost pressures remain, with a generally loose supply of soybean meal domestically and sufficient soybean supply expected from May to July, as oil mills return to normal operating levels [3]. - In the medium to long term, a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is becoming more certain, which supports bullish sentiment for soybean meal in the distant months [3]. - The ongoing developments in U.S.-China tariffs may also provide bullish factors for U.S. soybeans in the long term, suggesting a strategy of buying soybean meal on dips within the price range of 2,900 to 3,000 [3].