1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: With supply-demand being loose and costs rising, the price center of soybean meal moves upward. Despite a slowdown in Brazilian shipments and cost increases due to rising crude oil prices, recent acceleration in shipments has put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to Brazilian shipments and auctions [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Although there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction for Malaysian palm oil in March and support from crude oil, the impact of US biodiesel policies and the expected increase in the planting area of new US soybeans is neutral to bearish. The supply of global and domestic oils and fats will be seasonally looser in the second quarter, limiting the upside space. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term [73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Performance - As of March 19, the spot price in East China was 3,160 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the M2605 contract closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 92 yuan/ton; the basis price was 05+230 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 40 yuan/ton. Domestic spot supply-demand has become looser, and the basis has weakened [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production reached 427 million tons, with Brazil producing 180 million tons and Argentina 48 million tons. The USDA's February outlook forum estimated that the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season will be 85 million acres, an increase of 3.8 million acres year-on-year. China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are estimated to be 112 million tons. Due to slow Brazilian shipments and seasonal destocking in China, the destocking of domestic soybeans and soybean meal from March to April is expected to continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean demand reached 424 million tons, an increase of 11 million tons year-on-year. In China, the high demand for soybeans is supported by the high inventory of pigs and poultry. However, current losses in pig farming may lead to a reduction in production capacity, and soybean meal demand in the fourth quarter may be lower than expected. As of March 20, the national soybean inventory was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season is 1,218 cents per bushel. If crude oil prices continue to rise, planting costs are expected to increase. Based on the current US soybean price of 1,150 cents, a premium of 150 cents, and an oil-to-meal ratio of 2.9, the theoretical price of soybean meal is 2,980 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is improving, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for April - May shipments at around 100 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Market Performance - As of the week of March 27, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 50 yuan/ton to 9,768 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 60 yuan/ton to 8,688 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 9,877 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang increased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - SPPOMA reported that the palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month-on-month, while MPOA reported a 0.92% increase from March 1 - 20. Exports improved significantly, with a 38.4 - 50.42% increase from March 1 - 25. However, Indian refiners have suspended vegetable oil imports recently, and the Ramadan has ended, with the palm oil production season approaching in April. In China, the import profit of palm oil has deteriorated, and the estimated arrival of palm oil in April is 60,000 tons, a significant decrease from the monthly average of 200,000 tons in January - February. As of the week of March 20, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased to 808,200 tons [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Trump's visit to China in May is expected to boost China's purchase of US soybeans. However, the EPA's biodiesel blending volume for 2026 - 27 did not exceed market expectations, which is negative for the demand of US soybean oil for biodiesel. The market is also concerned about the crop planting intention report at the end of March, with a high probability of an increase in the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season. In South America, the USDA's March report maintained the Brazilian soybean production at 180 million tons and slightly reduced the Argentine soybean production to 48 million tons. In China, the seasonal decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter is beneficial for the destocking of soybean oil. As of the week of March 20, the domestic soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 860,700 tons. However, after the consultation between China and Brazil on soybean quarantine issues, the number of Brazilian soybean shipments to China has gradually increased, and the destocking of soybean oil inventory will be limited in April - May [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The war in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices and shipping costs, increasing the cost of imported rapeseed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, and the customs clearance time for Russian crude rapeseed oil has been extended, resulting in a tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil. However, China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the import profit has turned positive. It is expected that 20 ships of imported rapeseed will arrive in China from April - June, leading to a looser supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second quarter. As of the week of March 20, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 128,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 281,000 tons [73].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal is expected to be strong due to slower shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs caused by higher oil prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. - In the short - term, the prices of oils and fats will maintain a high - level volatile trend due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East war. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak. A rolling long strategy is recommended [71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of March 13, the spot price in East China was 3350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2605 contract closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 213 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis quote was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained the production of US and Brazilian soybeans and slightly reduced Argentina's soybean production, with the global soybean harvest pattern continuing. Brazil's soybean harvest progress accelerated, but domestic logistics capacity was mismatched, increasing domestic truck freight and ocean freight. Brazil's slow shipping led to a further downward adjustment of the expected arrival of soybeans in China from March to April, and soybeans and soybean meal were still in a destocking cycle [8]. 3.1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remained high but entered a seasonal off - peak period, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. Poultry inventory was high, and the addition ratio of soybean meal decreased. Overall, the demand for soybean meal remained high. The purchase sentiment of downstream buyers improved recently, with the national oil mill's soybean inventory slightly decreasing to 572.67 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly increasing to 76.05 million tons [8]. 3.1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 120 cents, and a 2.9 oil - meal ratio, the theoretical price of soybean meal was 3025 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans from July to September was 3100 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel, and it was expected to rise if oil prices continued to increase. The import crushing profit improved, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans around 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - Due to lower - than - expected shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs from higher oil prices, the overall price of soybean meal was strong. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of March 13, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 550 yuan/ton to 9768 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 278 yuan/ton to 8690 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 155 yuan/ton to 9821 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, and the basis of palm oil and rapeseed oil increased, while that of soybean oil decreased [71][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB February report showed that Malaysia's palm oil production and exports both decreased month - on - month, with the end - of - period inventory higher than expected. In March, production increased, but exports also increased significantly due to the transfer of some demand from Indonesia. Indonesia's accelerated B50 biodiesel policy was beneficial to palm oil demand. In China, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate in February but was expected to destock from March to April [71]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA March report had a neutral impact. Market attention was on the Middle East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Positive factors such as China's potential purchase of US soybeans and the expected increase in US biodiesel blending volume supported the price of US soybeans. In China, the soybean inventory was expected to decrease in the first quarter, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans after March would limit the further decrease of soybean oil inventory [71]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle East war increased the import cost of rapeseed and tightened the domestic supply of rapeseed oil. However, China's reduction of the comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed and the arrival of previously purchased rapeseed from March to May were expected to ease the supply - demand tension [71]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the continuous escalation of the Middle East war supported the prices of oil and fats. Palm oil and soybean oil were relatively strong, while rapeseed oil was relatively weak. A rolling long strategy was recommended [71].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal prices are expected to stabilize in January 2026 after a slight increase in December 2025, influenced by government auctions and customs policies [1][3]. Price Trends - In December 2025, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 3090 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.98%) month-on-month, and up 190 yuan/ton (6.55%) year-on-year [1]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis as of December 31 was 340 yuan/ton, a significant increase from 35 yuan/ton on December 1 [1]. Supply Factors - Soybean supply is expected to decrease seasonally, with forecasts indicating imports of 748 million tons in January, 520 million tons in February, and 530 million tons in March 2026 [3]. - Domestic soybean inventories were high at 638.7 million tons, with soybean meal stocks at 111.9 million tons, both above historical averages [3]. - The state reserve's auction of imported soybeans is expected to resume, potentially alleviating supply pressures [3]. Demand Factors - The demand for soybean meal is supported by the upcoming Spring Festival, as livestock farming enters a concentrated fattening period [4]. - Feed manufacturers are expected to increase their positions due to low contract inventories, which may boost demand for soybean meal [4]. Market Dynamics - The interplay of supply and demand factors is expected to create volatility in soybean meal prices, with a forecast of a month-on-month stabilization but a potential initial decline followed by a rise in January [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the USDA's December soybean supply and demand report maintains the forecasts for U.S. soybean production, export volume, and ending stocks, with ending stocks remaining at 290 million bushels [3][7] - South American soybean production expectations are strong, leading to weak U.S. soybean export demand, causing U.S. soybean prices to drop to a low not seen in over a month [3][7] - The global soybean production forecast has been raised to 423 million tons, an increase of 793,000 tons, with ending stocks also raised to 122 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons [7] Group 2 - U.S. soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 116 million tons, with a harvested area of 81.1 million acres and a yield of 53.0 bushels per acre [7] - Brazil's soybean production is forecasted at 175 million tons, with exports of 112.5 million tons and a crushing volume of 59 million tons [9] - Argentina's soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, with exports adjusted to 8.25 million tons and crushing volume adjusted down to 41 million tons [9] Group 3 - China's soybean production is estimated at 21 million tons, with imports expected to remain high at 112 million tons and a crushing volume of 108 million tons [9] - Domestic soybean meal prices have stopped declining and increased by 20-30 yuan per ton, with near-term futures contracts showing significant price increases [5][8] - The report indicates a neutral supply-demand outlook, with strong South American soybean production and weak export demand leading to a bearish trend in U.S. soybean prices [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates that the U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season are estimated at 290 million bushels, showing stability compared to previous reports, which has a neutral impact on spot soybean meal prices [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - The report's findings suggest a stable outlook for U.S. soybean ending stocks, which is expected to maintain a neutral influence on soybean meal prices [1] - The domestic spot market remains in a state of ample supply, with active trading observed in the first quarter and during May to July [1] Group 2: Argentina's Export Tax Changes - Argentina is reducing its soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and the export tax on soybean by-products from 24.5% to 22.5%, which is bearish for U.S. soybean futures [1] - The reduction in export taxes from Argentina is expected to exert downward pressure on domestic soybean meal prices from the cost side [1] Group 3: Market Focus - Market participants are closely monitoring the state reserve soybean auction scheduled for the 11th, which could influence market dynamics [1] - Short-term expectations for soybean meal spot prices are projected to remain stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend in December due to rising international soybean prices, supply tightening, and stable demand [1][3][4]. Supply Side - The average price of 43% protein soybean meal in November was 3060 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton (2.68%) from October, and a year-on-year increase of 27 yuan/ton (0.89%) [1]. - The total soybean crushing volume in November was 8.8141 million tons, a decrease of 87,900 tons from October [1]. - Soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, with projected arrivals of 8.64 million tons in December, 6.5 million tons in January, and 4.5 million tons in February [3]. Cost Side - The U.S. soybean market is facing export pressures, with China having purchased over 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October 30, accounting for 30% of the annual import expectation of 12 million tons [3]. - The market remains cautiously optimistic about U.S. soybean prices, which are expected to fluctuate at high levels, impacting domestic soybean meal prices neutrally [3]. Demand Side - The inventory of breeding pigs is at a high level, and as temperatures drop in December, the growth rate of pigs is expected to accelerate, leading to increased demand for feed [3]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume of pig feed will continue to rise in December, supporting high consumption levels of soybean meal [3]. Summary - Overall, the tightening supply and stable demand in December are expected to provide upward momentum for soybean meal prices, although the high supply levels may limit the extent of price increases [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market: With the acceleration of soybean purchases, prices have fallen from their highs. The US soybean market lacks positive support, and the smooth sowing and growth in South America have put pressure on prices. The domestic supply is expected to improve, but the demand remains strong. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of domestic purchases and the auction of soybean by Sinograin [6]. - The edible oil market: The market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. The export of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the production is increasing. The US biodiesel has negative news, and the export potential of US soybeans is questioned. The market is under pressure, but there are still potential positive factors. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82]. Summary of Each Section Section 1: Soybean Meal 1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of November 21, the spot price in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 - 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report lowered the US soybean price to 53 cents/bushel, with the ending stocks at 290 million bushels. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, and as of November 19, the new soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 24.6%. In November, the domestic soybean arrivals were normal, and domestic oil mills actively purchased ships for December - January, increasing domestic supply [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with an increase of over 7% year - on - year. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased, and the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by over 5% year - on - year. As of the latest data, the national oil mill soybean inventory decreased to 747.71 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly decreased to 99.29 million tons [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was raised to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price was estimated to be around 1000 cents/bushel. Based on current quotes, the domestic soybean meal cost was calculated to be 3185 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook - The US soybean market is expected to be weak and volatile. The domestic M2601 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to domestic purchases and Sinograin's soybean auction [6]. Section 2: Edible Oil 2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 21, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices all declined. The decline was mainly due to factors such as poor exports and increased production of Malaysian palm oil, negative news about US biodiesel, and doubts about the export potential of US soybeans [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil, and the ending stocks rose to 2.46 million tons. In November, exports were weak, and production increased, so Malaysia may continue to accumulate stocks. In China, the palm oil inventory increased to 650,000 tons as of November 14. The market is still looking forward to the import demand from India and the export reduction in Indonesia in 2026 [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - to - negative impact on US soybeans. The market is concerned about US soybean exports and the implementation of biodiesel policies. In China, the soybean arrivals have decreased since October, and the soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 1.1475 million tons as of November 14. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Due to the lack of breakthroughs in China - Canada relations, the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter is tight. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 450,200 tons as of November 14. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the continuous state reserve sales, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally in December [82]. 2.5 Market Outlook - In the short - term, the domestic edible oil market is at high - level adjustment risk, but the potential positive factors limit the adjustment range. Palm oil is relatively weak, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming USDA supply and demand report is expected to provide critical market guidance, with soybean meal prices likely to experience strong fluctuations due to various factors including cost support and inventory pressures [1][2][4] Market Overview - As of November 17, the main soybean meal contract closed at 3043 CNY/ton, having risen nearly 9% from a low of 2852 CNY/ton since late October [1] - The average price of soybean meal in China as of November 13 was 3072 CNY/ton, an increase of 39 CNY/ton from the end of the previous month [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of raw soybeans is currently abundant, allowing upstream enterprises to maintain high operating levels, resulting in a stable supply of soybean meal [3] - As of the first week of November, soybean meal inventory at domestic crushing enterprises was 963,000 tons, still above levels from previous years despite a decline from the year's peak [3] Price Trends and Expectations - The market anticipates a downward adjustment in U.S. soybean yield estimates, with the average forecast dropping from 53.5 bushels per acre in September to 53.1 bushels per acre [3] - Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations, supported by cost factors and easing supply pressures, with a projected price range of 3040 CNY/ton to 3150 CNY/ton by the end of December [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have stabilized after an increase in early November, with limited overall volatility expected. The outlook suggests a potential strong fluctuation in prices until the end of December due to cost support and easing inventory pressure [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of raw soybeans is generally abundant, supporting high operational levels for upstream enterprises, leading to a relaxed supply of spot market goods. As of the first week of November, soybean meal inventory at national crushing enterprises was 963,000 tons, slightly down from the year's peak but still above levels from previous years [3]. - Upstream enterprises have stable production plans, although some face significant inventory pressure, leading to widespread cash flow demands that exert pressure on soybean meal spot prices [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in their willingness to take delivery of spot goods, primarily engaging in essential replenishment, resulting in overall weak performance. From November 10 to 13, the total transaction volume of soybean meal for future months reached 448,000 tons [3]. International Market Context - The international market is characterized by a strong production outlook for soybeans, which limits the upward potential for U.S. soybean futures. However, a tightening supply-demand balance year-on-year provides solid bottom support for soybean prices [5]. - In the domestic market, the 13% import tariff on U.S. soybeans restricts commercial buying, while South American soybeans are facing poor crushing margins, leading to a less optimistic outlook for the first quarter's raw material supply [5]. Price Outlook - Overall, the domestic spot market fundamentals remain stable in early November, with narrowed fluctuations in soybean meal prices. The expectation is for a slight upward trend in soybean meal prices until the end of December, with an average price range projected between 3,040 and 3,150 yuan per ton [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics in China's soybean imports, highlighting a recent decision by Chinese importers to purchase approximately 20 shipments of Brazilian soybeans due to lower prices, despite expectations of increased U.S. soybean exports to China amid easing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese buyers previously slowed down Brazilian soybean purchases due to high prices, but have resumed buying as prices have decreased, making Brazilian soybeans more attractive compared to U.S. soybeans [3][5]. - The price of U.S. soybeans has risen to a near 15-month high due to positive signals regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, which has led to a decrease in the premium of Brazilian soybeans [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - China's annual soybean import demand is around 100 million tons, with over 80 million tons of South American soybeans exported to China this year, significantly reducing the domestic supply gap to approximately 10 million tons [7]. - The renewed purchases of Brazilian soybeans by Chinese buyers indicate a further reduction in market space for U.S. soybeans, as the market share of U.S. soybeans in China has been declining in recent years [7]. Group 3: Price Trends - The expectation of sufficient imported soybean supply limits the likelihood of significant increases in soybean meal prices, especially with the recent announcement of tariff adjustments on U.S. imports [9][10]. - The stable demand for soybean meal, supported by high inventory levels and strong livestock populations, suggests that while there is potential for price increases, significant fluctuations are unlikely in the short term, with prices expected to range between 2,900 and 3,300 yuan per ton [10].