转自：新华财经 受国储拍卖进口大豆溢价成交以及国内海关政策有所收紧驱动，2025年12月国内豆粕现货价格重心环比 上移。展望2026年1月份，卓创资讯认为，预计1月份国内豆粕现货价格重心或环比持平，月内呈现先跌 后涨走势。 根据卓创资讯数据统计，2025年12月，国内43%蛋白豆粕月均价为3090元／吨，环比涨30元／吨，涨幅 0.98%，较2024年同期涨190元／吨，涨幅6.55%。进入12月国储对进口大豆连续拍卖，成交多有溢价， 从成本端对豆粕价格形成上涨提振。此外，海关通关周期有所延长，也使得市场对一季度原料大豆衔接 产生一定担忧情绪。另从压榨情况来看，根据卓创资讯统计，全国受访122家重要油厂12月大豆压榨总 量为895.51万吨，环比增加20.4万吨。基差方面，截至12月31日，国内豆粕现货基差为340元／吨，较12 月1日的35元／吨走扩305元／吨。 展望2026年1月，供应方面来看，原料大豆供应呈现季节性回落，但仍存宽松预期。这主要是因为，首 先，根据卓创资讯对大豆到港预估以及国内压榨企业开停机情况调研显示，2026年1月至3月大豆到港预 计分别为748万吨、520万吨、530万吨，大豆到港 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the USDA's December soybean supply and demand report maintains the forecasts for U.S. soybean production, export volume, and ending stocks, with ending stocks remaining at 290 million bushels [3][7] - South American soybean production expectations are strong, leading to weak U.S. soybean export demand, causing U.S. soybean prices to drop to a low not seen in over a month [3][7] - The global soybean production forecast has been raised to 423 million tons, an increase of 793,000 tons, with ending stocks also raised to 122 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons [7] Group 2 - U.S. soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 116 million tons, with a harvested area of 81.1 million acres and a yield of 53.0 bushels per acre [7] - Brazil's soybean production is forecasted at 175 million tons, with exports of 112.5 million tons and a crushing volume of 59 million tons [9] - Argentina's soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, with exports adjusted to 8.25 million tons and crushing volume adjusted down to 41 million tons [9] Group 3 - China's soybean production is estimated at 21 million tons, with imports expected to remain high at 112 million tons and a crushing volume of 108 million tons [9] - Domestic soybean meal prices have stopped declining and increased by 20-30 yuan per ton, with near-term futures contracts showing significant price increases [5][8] - The report indicates a neutral supply-demand outlook, with strong South American soybean production and weak export demand leading to a bearish trend in U.S. soybean prices [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates that the U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season are estimated at 290 million bushels, showing stability compared to previous reports, which has a neutral impact on spot soybean meal prices [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - The report's findings suggest a stable outlook for U.S. soybean ending stocks, which is expected to maintain a neutral influence on soybean meal prices [1] - The domestic spot market remains in a state of ample supply, with active trading observed in the first quarter and during May to July [1] Group 2: Argentina's Export Tax Changes - Argentina is reducing its soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and the export tax on soybean by-products from 24.5% to 22.5%, which is bearish for U.S. soybean futures [1] - The reduction in export taxes from Argentina is expected to exert downward pressure on domestic soybean meal prices from the cost side [1] Group 3: Market Focus - Market participants are closely monitoring the state reserve soybean auction scheduled for the 11th, which could influence market dynamics [1] - Short-term expectations for soybean meal spot prices are projected to remain stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend in December due to rising international soybean prices, supply tightening, and stable demand [1][3][4]. Supply Side - The average price of 43% protein soybean meal in November was 3060 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton (2.68%) from October, and a year-on-year increase of 27 yuan/ton (0.89%) [1]. - The total soybean crushing volume in November was 8.8141 million tons, a decrease of 87,900 tons from October [1]. - Soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, with projected arrivals of 8.64 million tons in December, 6.5 million tons in January, and 4.5 million tons in February [3]. Cost Side - The U.S. soybean market is facing export pressures, with China having purchased over 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October 30, accounting for 30% of the annual import expectation of 12 million tons [3]. - The market remains cautiously optimistic about U.S. soybean prices, which are expected to fluctuate at high levels, impacting domestic soybean meal prices neutrally [3]. Demand Side - The inventory of breeding pigs is at a high level, and as temperatures drop in December, the growth rate of pigs is expected to accelerate, leading to increased demand for feed [3]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume of pig feed will continue to rise in December, supporting high consumption levels of soybean meal [3]. Summary - Overall, the tightening supply and stable demand in December are expected to provide upward momentum for soybean meal prices, although the high supply levels may limit the extent of price increases [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market: With the acceleration of soybean purchases, prices have fallen from their highs. The US soybean market lacks positive support, and the smooth sowing and growth in South America have put pressure on prices. The domestic supply is expected to improve, but the demand remains strong. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of domestic purchases and the auction of soybean by Sinograin [6]. - The edible oil market: The market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. The export of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the production is increasing. The US biodiesel has negative news, and the export potential of US soybeans is questioned. The market is under pressure, but there are still potential positive factors. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82]. Summary of Each Section Section 1: Soybean Meal 1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of November 21, the spot price in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 - 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report lowered the US soybean price to 53 cents/bushel, with the ending stocks at 290 million bushels. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, and as of November 19, the new soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 24.6%. In November, the domestic soybean arrivals were normal, and domestic oil mills actively purchased ships for December - January, increasing domestic supply [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with an increase of over 7% year - on - year. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased, and the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by over 5% year - on - year. As of the latest data, the national oil mill soybean inventory decreased to 747.71 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly decreased to 99.29 million tons [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was raised to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price was estimated to be around 1000 cents/bushel. Based on current quotes, the domestic soybean meal cost was calculated to be 3185 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook - The US soybean market is expected to be weak and volatile. The domestic M2601 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to domestic purchases and Sinograin's soybean auction [6]. Section 2: Edible Oil 2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 21, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices all declined. The decline was mainly due to factors such as poor exports and increased production of Malaysian palm oil, negative news about US biodiesel, and doubts about the export potential of US soybeans [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil, and the ending stocks rose to 2.46 million tons. In November, exports were weak, and production increased, so Malaysia may continue to accumulate stocks. In China, the palm oil inventory increased to 650,000 tons as of November 14. The market is still looking forward to the import demand from India and the export reduction in Indonesia in 2026 [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - to - negative impact on US soybeans. The market is concerned about US soybean exports and the implementation of biodiesel policies. In China, the soybean arrivals have decreased since October, and the soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 1.1475 million tons as of November 14. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Due to the lack of breakthroughs in China - Canada relations, the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter is tight. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 450,200 tons as of November 14. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the continuous state reserve sales, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally in December [82]. 2.5 Market Outlook - In the short - term, the domestic edible oil market is at high - level adjustment risk, but the potential positive factors limit the adjustment range. Palm oil is relatively weak, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming USDA supply and demand report is expected to provide critical market guidance, with soybean meal prices likely to experience strong fluctuations due to various factors including cost support and inventory pressures [1][2][4] Market Overview - As of November 17, the main soybean meal contract closed at 3043 CNY/ton, having risen nearly 9% from a low of 2852 CNY/ton since late October [1] - The average price of soybean meal in China as of November 13 was 3072 CNY/ton, an increase of 39 CNY/ton from the end of the previous month [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of raw soybeans is currently abundant, allowing upstream enterprises to maintain high operating levels, resulting in a stable supply of soybean meal [3] - As of the first week of November, soybean meal inventory at domestic crushing enterprises was 963,000 tons, still above levels from previous years despite a decline from the year's peak [3] Price Trends and Expectations - The market anticipates a downward adjustment in U.S. soybean yield estimates, with the average forecast dropping from 53.5 bushels per acre in September to 53.1 bushels per acre [3] - Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations, supported by cost factors and easing supply pressures, with a projected price range of 3040 CNY/ton to 3150 CNY/ton by the end of December [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have stabilized after an increase in early November, with limited overall volatility expected. The outlook suggests a potential strong fluctuation in prices until the end of December due to cost support and easing inventory pressure [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of raw soybeans is generally abundant, supporting high operational levels for upstream enterprises, leading to a relaxed supply of spot market goods. As of the first week of November, soybean meal inventory at national crushing enterprises was 963,000 tons, slightly down from the year's peak but still above levels from previous years [3]. - Upstream enterprises have stable production plans, although some face significant inventory pressure, leading to widespread cash flow demands that exert pressure on soybean meal spot prices [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in their willingness to take delivery of spot goods, primarily engaging in essential replenishment, resulting in overall weak performance. From November 10 to 13, the total transaction volume of soybean meal for future months reached 448,000 tons [3]. International Market Context - The international market is characterized by a strong production outlook for soybeans, which limits the upward potential for U.S. soybean futures. However, a tightening supply-demand balance year-on-year provides solid bottom support for soybean prices [5]. - In the domestic market, the 13% import tariff on U.S. soybeans restricts commercial buying, while South American soybeans are facing poor crushing margins, leading to a less optimistic outlook for the first quarter's raw material supply [5]. Price Outlook - Overall, the domestic spot market fundamentals remain stable in early November, with narrowed fluctuations in soybean meal prices. The expectation is for a slight upward trend in soybean meal prices until the end of December, with an average price range projected between 3,040 and 3,150 yuan per ton [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics in China's soybean imports, highlighting a recent decision by Chinese importers to purchase approximately 20 shipments of Brazilian soybeans due to lower prices, despite expectations of increased U.S. soybean exports to China amid easing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese buyers previously slowed down Brazilian soybean purchases due to high prices, but have resumed buying as prices have decreased, making Brazilian soybeans more attractive compared to U.S. soybeans [3][5]. - The price of U.S. soybeans has risen to a near 15-month high due to positive signals regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, which has led to a decrease in the premium of Brazilian soybeans [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - China's annual soybean import demand is around 100 million tons, with over 80 million tons of South American soybeans exported to China this year, significantly reducing the domestic supply gap to approximately 10 million tons [7]. - The renewed purchases of Brazilian soybeans by Chinese buyers indicate a further reduction in market space for U.S. soybeans, as the market share of U.S. soybeans in China has been declining in recent years [7]. Group 3: Price Trends - The expectation of sufficient imported soybean supply limits the likelihood of significant increases in soybean meal prices, especially with the recent announcement of tariff adjustments on U.S. imports [9][10]. - The stable demand for soybean meal, supported by high inventory levels and strong livestock populations, suggests that while there is potential for price increases, significant fluctuations are unlikely in the short term, with prices expected to range between 2,900 and 3,300 yuan per ton [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean meal spot prices in October experienced a slight decline due to ample supply, but the market pressure is expected to ease in November, leading to a potential increase in price levels [2][4][5]. Supply Side Analysis - In October, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 2980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (0.96%) from September and down 42 yuan/ton (1.39%) year-on-year [2]. - The average operating rate of soybean crushing enterprises showed a trend of initially low and then high, with high inventory levels contributing to the price drop [2]. - The total soybean crushing volume in October was 8.7632 million tons, a decrease of 935,100 tons from September [2]. Market Dynamics - The market began to see a recovery in soybean meal prices towards the end of October, driven by expectations of U.S.-China negotiations and the resumption of U.S. soybean purchases by China [2]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis narrowed to 12 yuan/ton by October 31, down from 39 yuan/ton on October 9, indicating weakening spot basis [2]. Future Outlook - For November, the supply of raw soybeans is expected to tighten gradually, with forecasts of soybean arrivals at 9.49 million tons in November, 7.5 million tons in December, and 5 million tons in January [4]. - Despite some recovery in U.S. soybean purchases, the commercial import margins remain negative, limiting procurement by foreign and private enterprises [4]. - The recent irregular rainfall in Brazil has caused delays in planting, which may have a neutral impact on international soybean meal prices in the short term [4]. Price Expectations - The combination of easing supply pressures and supportive cost factors is expected to lead to an upward shift in soybean meal spot prices in November [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The opening of US soybean imports drives up costs, leading to an upward trend in domestic soybean meal prices. However, the upside is limited due to factors such as the high cost of US soybeans and the weakening of domestic demand growth [5][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the market is in a volatile adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors from the producing areas. The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil are under pressure, while soybean oil shows relatively stronger performance [78][80]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal - **Market Review**: As of October 31, the spot price in East China was 2950 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton monthly. The basis price decreased by 30 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Supply**: The USDA October report was delayed. US soybean exports accelerated, but China's actual purchases were limited. Brazilian old - crop sales pressure increased, and the new - crop planting progress was 50% as of October 31, lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel. The estimated bottom price of US soybeans is around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: US soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around 1100 cents/bushel. Domestic soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of import costs, but the performance is not as strong as that of US soybeans [7]. - **Strategy**: Slightly reduce M2601 long positions and re - enter at low prices. Lightly build long positions in M2605 and M2609 at low prices. Spot enterprises should sell the basis at high prices and roll long positions [7]. Oils and Fats - **Market Review**: As of October 31, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices declined, while soybean oil prices were relatively stable [80][82]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports increased less than production, with an expected inventory build - up. In Indonesia, production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy may face obstacles. In the short - term, palm oil prices are under pressure, but there is support below [80]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the APEC meeting, China agreed to purchase US soybeans, which boosted the market sentiment. The high - level soybean crushing volume in September and the possible downward adjustment of the new - crop yield of US soybeans supported the short - term rebound of US soybean prices. In the long - term, the supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, which limits the de - stocking speed [80]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has improved, and the possibility of Canadian rapeseed entering China has increased. The supply of rapeseed in Canada is expected to be abundant, but there is still a supply gap in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [80]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the upside of oils and fats is limited, but the adjustment range is restricted. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and the start of weather speculation in South America [80]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts. Consider the strategy of narrowing the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil 01 contracts and widening the spread between soybean oil and palm oil 01 contracts [80].