8月中旬开始豆粕市场变量逐步落地转为利多驱动，在美国农业部（USDA）报告数据超预期利好及菜 粕大涨的带动下，13日豆粕期现价格均环比涨幅超2%。 展望后市，随着基本面利空被消化，现实压力对豆粕价格的压制逐步减弱，市场交易重心转向供应及成 本预期，预计三季度后期豆粕现货价格或保持偏强运行态势。 报告超预期利多叠加菜粕强势推动豆粕价格走高 进入8月，豆粕市场变量陆续落地。8月12日中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明。12日收盘后中国商 务部公布对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽反倾销调查的初步裁定，初步认定存在倾销，对加拿大公司征收 75.8%的保证金。菜籽进口供应受限，菜粕主力合约涨停，菜粕的强势表现从替代品角度对豆粕价格形 成支撑。 但直接引燃豆粕市场情绪的是13日0点美国农业部公布的8月供需报告。在本月报告中，美国农业部超预 期下调新季美豆收割面积至8010万英亩，带动产量、期末库存均环比下滑，美豆供需关系收紧。外盘美 豆期价走强，成本端影响偏多，13日全国豆粕现货均价为3079元／吨，环比提升84元／吨，沿海主要区 域现货价格涨至3000元／吨附近。 上游豆粕库存拐点或已出现 供需矛盾边际改善市场交易重心逐步转 ...

专题报告 2025-07-30 豆粕：近期偏弱，8 月下旬后有修复契机 报告要点： 总体来看国内大豆现实与预期供应量与去年同期类似，后期外盘大豆供应压力比去年同期更 高。估值上国内压榨利润处于盈亏平衡线，没有积累太多的反弹动能，外盘大豆进口成本即使 因为 CBOT 大豆交易自身库销比或者中国买船上涨，巴西升贴水可能会用类似的跌幅抵消美豆 盘面涨幅，预期差在于美豆向上修复的幅度是否大于巴西升贴水下跌幅度。建议豆粕仍以区间 震荡思路为主，向上突破需要贸易战加剧、南美种植问题配合，向下突破则需要国内消费滑坡、 供应进一步宽松等刺激。节奏上近期豆粕可能仍然偏弱，因库存较大，外盘可售量充足，上涨 契机可能会来源于 9 月国庆备货、国内大豆去库窗口以及南美种植交易带来的榨利回暖，且豆 油端可能因年末棕榈油去库预期、B50 政策预期相对更强。 斯小伟 农产品分析师 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 农产品研究|油脂油料 一、因提货较好国内大豆、豆粕库存可能在 8 月中旬见顶 图 1：港口大豆库存（万吨） 图 2：油厂豆粕库存（万吨） 资料来源 ...

01 02 油脂：基本面支撑仍存，期价回调幅度有限 豆粕：美豆降水预期改善，价格承压下行 目 录 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-07-28 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 研 究 员：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 投资咨询号:Z0022420 01 豆粕：美豆降水预期改善，价格承压下行 03 基本面数据回顾 01 豆粕：美豆降水预期改善，价格承压下行 ◆ 期现端：截止7月18日，华东现货报价2840元/吨，周度下跌40元/吨；M2509合约收盘至3031元/吨，周度下跌35元/吨；基差报价09-180元/吨，周度报 价下跌10元/吨。周中美豆受月底降水不佳影响表现偏强，价格触底反弹，国内豆粕跟随反弹，在去库预期及宏观推动下，价格偏强运行，周四随着天气预 期改善及资金获利离场，价格承压下行。 ◆ 供应端：巴西2024/25年度产量达1.69亿吨，8月中国进口量预计超1000万吨，南美大豆集中到港，短期压力显现。同时国内油厂开机率回升至60%以上， 豆粕库存持续累库，供需宽松格局不变；近期阿根廷下调阿大豆出口税率，刺激阿 ...

截止到2025年5月30日（第22周），国内饲料企业豆粕库存天数（物理库存天数）为5.99天，较5月23日 增加0.25天，增幅4.23%，较去年同期减少12.19%。 6月3日，大商所豆粕期货仓单26598手，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： （6月3日）全国豆粕价格一览表 规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 用途:饲料用 ;工艺:带皮 ;粗蛋白质≥(%):43.0 ; 2900元/吨 市场价 北京 北京豆粕市场 用途:饲料用 ;工艺:带皮 ;粗蛋白质≥(%):43.0 ; 2870元/吨 市场价 天津 天津豆粕市场 期货市场上看，6月3日收盘，豆粕期货主力合约报2935.00元/吨，跌幅1.05%，最高触及2955.00元/吨， 最低下探2927.00元/吨，日内成交量达1140522手。 【市场资讯】 数据显示，6月3日各地区豆粕现货价格报价2929.14元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（2935.00元/吨）贴水 5.86元/吨。 国投安信期货研报：据中国商务部消息，商务部新闻发言人表示，美方在日内瓦经贸会谈后，陆续新增 出台多项对华歧视性限制措施，无端指责中方违反共识，这严重背离事实。中方坚决拒绝无理指 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The current market for soybean meal is experiencing fluctuations due to varying supply and demand dynamics, with significant implications for pricing and trading strategies in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On May 26, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 79,600 tons [1]. - As of May 23, the inventory of imported soybeans in major oil mills was 6.17 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 290,000 tons, but a month-on-month increase of 1.12 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 850,000 tons, which is 1.14 million tons higher than the average of the past three years [1]. - The soybean meal inventory in major oil mills stood at 210,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 90,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 140,000 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 560,000 tons, indicating a historically low level for this time of year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that Brazil is currently in a concentrated export phase for soybeans, while the U.S. is in the soybean planting stage, with a planting rate of 66% as of the week ending May 18, compared to 50% last year and a five-year average of 53% [2]. - The record high yield of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year has led to expectations of increased imports in May, although delays in customs have hindered April's arrivals [2]. - Concerns over reduced soybean yields in Argentina due to heavy rainfall have led to slight rebounds in both domestic and international markets, although the overall impact remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Zhengxin Futures indicates that the short-term cost pressures remain, with a generally loose supply of soybean meal domestically and sufficient soybean supply expected from May to July, as oil mills return to normal operating levels [3]. - In the medium to long term, a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is becoming more certain, which supports bullish sentiment for soybean meal in the distant months [3]. - The ongoing developments in U.S.-China tariffs may also provide bullish factors for U.S. soybeans in the long term, suggesting a strategy of buying soybean meal on dips within the price range of 2,900 to 3,000 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of oils remains, and the rebound of futures prices is limited. The supply of soybean meal is gradually improving, and the price is oscillating downward [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal: Supply Gradually Improving, Price Oscillating Downward - **Futures and Spot End**: As of April 25, the spot price in East China reached 3,800 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton weekly. The spot basis strengthened significantly, with the basis in North China soaring from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to over 1,000 yuan/ton. The futures prices of M2505 and M2509 did not show strong upward trends due to delivery logic and expected increases in arrivals and operation rates later [7]. - **Supply End**: The April USDA soybean supply - demand report showed that the US soybean yield remained at 50.7 cents/bushel, and the ending stocks were lowered to 375 million bushels. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 83.5 million acres, with a downward trend in production. In South America, Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, putting pressure on prices, while Argentina's production forecast remains at 49 million tons. In China, the supply - demand situation tightened recently due to oil mills' soybean shortages, but the arrival pressure from May to July is high, and the supply will gradually become loose. After September, domestic soybeans will enter a destocking cycle [7]. - **Demand End**: In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. The demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. However, the market is bearish on future prices, and the purchasing sentiment is poor. As of April 18, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased to 4.2591 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly to 125,500 tons [7]. - **Cost End**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and that of new - crop Brazil soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal before March 2025 is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the cost during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2,730 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is at a high level in the same period of history, ranging from 100 to 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the supply - demand tension in some regions remains, and the price decline is limited before the supply pressure arrives. From May to July, as arrivals increase, the price will gradually decline with the accumulation of soybean and soybean meal inventories. The 09 contract is under short - term pressure from arrivals but may be bullish in the long - term due to weather disturbances and tariff - induced increases in import costs [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, go short on the M2509 contract when the price is high, paying attention to the resistance around 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton. In the long - term, go long on the 09 contract when the price is low, paying attention to the support around 2,900 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Oils: Supply Pressure Remains, Futures Price Rebound Limited - **Futures and Spot End**: As of the week of April 25, the main 09 contract of palm oil rose 244 yuan/ton to 8,376 yuan/ton, the main 09 contract of soybean oil rose 230 yuan/ton to 7,934 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of rapeseed oil rose 285 yuan/ton to 9,506 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, while the basis of palm oil decreased, and the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased [81][83]. - **Palm Oil**: In April, the production in Malaysia increased. The international soybean - palm oil price spread turned positive, stimulating imports from China and India. The export volume from April 1 - 25 increased. The inventory increase in Malaysia in April may be small. In China, the import volume in April is expected to be less than 100,000 tons, and the consumption is also low, keeping the inventory below 400,000 tons. However, from May, the arrivals will increase, and the price may decline from May to July [81]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the 24/25 season, Brazil's soybean harvest has reached 90%, and the export volume may exceed 100 million tons. Argentina has also started harvesting. However, the potential increase in the US biodiesel blending standard is beneficial for future soybean demand. The expected decrease in the 25/26 US soybean planting area and planting disruptions support the soybean price. In China, although the soybean arrivals have increased, strict customs inspections have led to shortages in some oil mills before early May. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased to 650,000 tons, but it will accumulate again from May to July. In the long - term, the price may first decline and then rise from July to September [81]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is not affected by US - Canada tariffs, and the demand for crushing and export is strong. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and there may be drought problems in the 25/26 planting season. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 830,000 tons, and the supply pressure in April is large. There are rumors of increased imports of Australian rapeseed, which may slightly ease the future supply shortage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [81]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the three major oils in China have upward momentum due to various factors, but the supply improvement is expected, and the price rebound is limited. In the long - term, the price of soybean and palm oil may decline in the second quarter and then rise due to concerns about the US new - crop soybean planting area and potential weather speculation [81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing up the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 7,800 - 8,000, 8,500, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Wait for the price to decline in the second quarter before going long. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong [81].