一觉醒来，特朗普又上演了一出 "极限拉扯" 的戏码。 当地时间 8 月 11 日，就在中美经贸 "休战" 期限到期的前一天，他磨磨蹭蹭地签下了延长关税暂停期的行政令，把这 "休战" 状态又续了 90 天。 这操作就像玩游戏快 Game Over 时突然按了暂停键，既想喘口气，又舍不得放下手里的控制器。 更有意思的是，签完字的他转头就向中国喊话，希望咱们多买美国大豆，最好能把订单翻四倍。这前倨后恭的样子，活像个刚跟你吵完架，转头又求你借他 块橡皮的小学生。 关税 "暂停键"：特朗普的缓兵之计 要说这关税暂停期，原本 8 月 12 日就到期了。要是特朗普不签字，那中美之间的关税就得回到今年 4 月的 "高烧" 状态 —— 美国对华关税飙到 145%，中 国对美关税也得升到 125%。这可不是闹着玩的，就像给两国贸易的血管上扎了根大针头，血都得往外飙。 美国商家早就急得像热锅上的蚂蚁，要是关税真涨到那地步，进口的中国商品价格得翻着跟头往上涨，货架上的东西卖不出去，最后哭的还是美国老百姓。 特朗普这最后一刻的签字，看着像是让步，实则是打得一手 "缓兵之计" 的牌。美财长贝森特说得明明白白："得先按美国的标准来，让制造 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's call for China to increase its soybean orders from the U.S. by four times, highlighting the strained trade relations between the two countries [1] - In 2017, U.S. soybeans accounted for nearly 40% of China's total imports, but this figure is projected to drop to 20% by 2024 due to tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration [3] - Brazil's share of soybean imports to China has risen significantly, from 50% in 2017 to 70% in 2024, as China diversifies its sources to ensure stable supply and lower costs [3] Group 2 - China's delayed purchasing of U.S. soybeans this year marks the latest start since 2005, indicating a shift in procurement strategies and a surplus in soybean meal supply [3] - The U.S. government has imposed sanctions on two Chinese entities related to oil trade with Iran, which is seen as an attempt to pressure China into increasing soybean purchases [5] - China's energy import strategy has diversified, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and making it difficult for U.S. sanctions to disrupt its energy cooperation with Iran [5] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture is bleak without the Chinese market, leading to unsold agricultural products and declining prices for American farmers [7] - The proposed $60 billion agricultural subsidy plan by the U.S. government has faced criticism for primarily benefiting large agricultural enterprises, leaving family farms with limited support [7] - China's trade policies are driven by its own market and strategic considerations, suggesting that external pressures from the U.S. may not lead to significant changes in its procurement practices [7]

比起关税战输给中国，特朗普现在最发愁的一件事，就是之前中国少有依赖美国的一笔生意，好像要被别人抢走了。 据环球网报道，最近，在中美达成一致，同意冻结两国部分关税之际，特朗普在社交媒体上，发布了一则"求助信息"，希望中国能将美国大豆的 订单量提高三倍。 数据显示，在2016年的时候，美国几乎占据着中国进口大豆的半壁江山，市场份额一度超过4成，但随着美国近年来不断遏制中国的发展，情况开 始急转直下。 一开始，美方还在嘴硬，声称自家大豆的出口量不降反增，国内供应一点都不紧张，结果特朗普的这番喊话，等于撕开了美国的遮羞布。 特朗普深夜发布求助信息 美国大豆在华份额大幅缩减 没错，在减少对美国大豆的进口之后，巴西立刻找中方商量，提高巴西大豆对华的出口量，目前，巴西大豆已经占据了7成中国市场，而美国大豆 只剩下两成，并且还在不断减少。 跟美国相比，巴西要可信得多，卢拉作为中国人的老朋友，重新上台之后积极深化中巴关系，再加上巴西大豆的产量傲视全球，完全能够满足中 国的需求，给美国大豆全挤走都没问题。 而且，卢拉的胃口可不止大豆，之前400多家美国牛肉企业对华的出口资质到期，而中方迟迟没有续约，就让巴西嗅到了机会。 在今年4 ...

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/08/20 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 10.2% | 7.8% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 12.7% | 7.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has been performing strongly recently. The US soybean market is expected to have stronger support and may rise further if there is positive news. The South American market has limited short - term pressure, and the prices in Brazil and Argentina are generally firm [4]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market still faces significant pressure due to high soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates. The supply is expected to remain loose, and inventory pressure is likely to persist. The domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly due to policy factors and is expected to remain strong if policies do not change much [4][5]. - The trading strategies include a bullish stance for single - sided trading, M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **International Market**: The US soybean futures market has been strong due to the bullish monthly supply - demand report. In South America, Brazil's soybean prices have risen slightly despite a small decline after the US soybean price increase. Argentina's soybean prices are also firm, and so are the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in both countries [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market has high pressure with abundant supply and limited demand improvement. The domestic rapeseed meal has increased significantly because of policy - related restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a bullish single - sided trading approach, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market has been strong due to the monthly supply - demand report. Although the yield per acre was raised, the planting area was significantly reduced, tightening the new - crop supply. The old - crop crush was also increased by 1 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels, with high uncertainty. The US soybean may rebound in the short - term, and the support at the lower level is strong [9][11]. - **South American Markets**: In Brazil, soybean export prices have slightly declined, but the overall price has increased due to the US soybean price increase. The monthly supply - demand report slightly raised production, exports, and crush. The selling progress of farmers has improved, and the export target of 106 million tons is likely to be achieved. In Argentina, soybean prices are firm, and the pressure on exports has decreased [14]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal futures market has been strong due to cost - side factors, but the spot market has high pressure. The oil mill operating rate has increased due to sufficient soybean supply, and the demand has changed little. The inventory remains high, and the futures spread is expected to weaken [17]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures market has risen significantly due to the policy decision to impose a deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports after an anti - dumping investigation. The market may remain strong if imports from Canada are completely stopped [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crush, and weekly crush profits. It also presents Brazil's monthly soybean exports and crush, Argentina's soybean exports and monthly crush, and foreign soybean basis prices [24][27][29]. - **Macro - factors**: Exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are involved, as well as international shipping freight rates. The freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have all decreased slightly [37][42]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import and weekly crush of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [48]. - **Demand**: The data shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in China [51]. - **Inventory**: The data shows the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal in China [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the supply - demand of US soybeans is tightening, leading to an upward shift in the price center. In the short term, domestic soybean meal follows the price increase of US soybeans, but its growth is limited by inventory accumulation expectations and the strength of oils. In the medium - long term, as domestic inventory enters the depletion cycle in late October, the price is expected to continue to be strong [8]. - For oils, although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections due to factors such as reduced market enthusiasm for long - positions and increased vessel purchases, the overall long - term trend remains positive due to factors like tight supply - demand in the origin of palm oil and US soybean new crops [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Trend Review - As of August 8, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2601 contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 01 - 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. The US soybean price rose to around 1030 cents/bushel due to tightened supply - demand [8][10]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Price: Spot prices in North China, East China, and Shandong all increased, with price differences and basis prices showing various changes. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract increased by 2% [12]. - Supply: The flowering rate, pod - setting rate of US soybeans increased, while the excellent - good rate decreased by 1%. The monthly arrival volume increased by 20%. The purchase progress of shipping schedules from October to December showed different degrees of increase [12]. - Demand: The inventory of soybean meal decreased by 4%, and the提货 volume increased by 4% [12]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - Weather: In the next two weeks, the main producing areas of US soybeans will face local drought in Iowa and Indiana. In the long - term, there is still a risk of periodic drought [51]. - Cost: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1141 cents/bushel, and the estimated bottom price is around 990 cents/bushel. The domestic import cost has increased, and the estimated bottom price of domestic soybean meal is 3130 yuan/ton [8]. - Purchase and Arrival: The purchase of Brazilian vessels from August to September is active, but there is no purchase of US soybeans after September. The supply may be interrupted from October to January, and the price may rise periodically after November [62][72]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Market Trend Review - As of the week of August 15, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices fluctuated significantly. The price first rose due to positive supply - demand reports and the preliminary review of anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed, and then fell due to market sentiment release and new vessel - purchase news [91][93]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends. The domestic inventory of palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed showed different degrees of change [98]. - Demand: The domestic trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while the domestic rapeseed oil提货 volume increased [98]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - Malaysia: The MPOB July report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected. The export demand in August rebounded strongly, and it is expected to remain strong in the short term [91]. - Indonesia: From January to May, production and demand increased. The inventory in May was at a historical low, and the supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2025 [114][115]. - India: In July, the total import volume of vegetable oils increased slightly. As of the week of August 1, the total inventory of oils increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. There is still inventory - building demand before the October Diwali Festival [123].

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week (08.11 - 08.15), the price of US soybean futures mainly rose due to the hope of increased exports to China and the positive 8 - month USDA report. The price of domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated and increased, and the price of soybean No.1 futures fluctuated. Next week (08.18 - 08.22), it is expected that the center of the Dalian soybean meal futures price will move up, and the soybean No.1 futures price will rebound and fluctuate [2][5]. Summary by Related Content 1. Futures Price Performance - **US Futures**: In the week of August 15, the main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 5.7%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 3.26% [2]. - **Domestic Futures**: In the week of August 15, the main m2601 contract of domestic soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.39%, and the main a2511 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly decrease of 0.83% [2]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **Sales and Shipment**: In the week of August 7, the weekly net sales of US soybeans decreased compared to the previous week and were at the lower end of expectations. The 2024/25 annual US soybean export shipment decreased by about 23% week - on - week, and the cumulative export shipment increased by about 13% year - on - year. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 2248 tons (about 2397 tons in the same period last year) [2]. - **Soybean Goodness Rate**: As of the week of August 11, the goodness rate of US soybeans was 68%, a week - on - week decrease and in line with expectations [2]. - **USDA Report**: The August USDA supply - demand report was positive, lowering the ending stocks and inventory - to - consumption ratios of global and US soybeans in 2025/26 [2][3]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of the week of August 15, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October - November delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [3]. - **Weather Forecast**: From August 17 to August 30, the main US soybean - producing areas will have less precipitation and temperatures will be "high first and then low", with a neutral impact [3]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Situation - **Transaction**: As of the week of August 15, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream domestic oil mills was about 100,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Pick - up**: As of the week of August 15, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, flat compared to the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: As of the week of August 15, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of August 8, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream domestic oil mills was about 860,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 68% and a year - on - year decrease of about 36% [3]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of August 15, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 2.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase. It is expected to reach about 2.4 million tons next week [3]. 4. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Situation - **Price**: The soybean prices in the Northeast production area and some areas in the interior remained stable compared to the previous week, and the sales prices in the sales areas were also flat [4]. - **New Bean Growth**: The growth of new soybeans in the Northeast production area is good, maintaining the annual production expectation [4]. - **Auction**: The auctions of state - owned and provincial - owned soybeans continued. The state - owned auctions had partial transactions, the Heilongjiang provincial - owned auction failed, and the Jilin provincial - owned auction had a transaction rate of about 68% [4]. - **Demand**: The demand in the sales areas is dull, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start of school in September will boost the demand [4].

Core Insights - Brazil's soybean exports reached a record high of 12.25 million tons in July, with total exports for the first seven months of the year hitting 77.2 million tons, marking the first time this level has been surpassed in history [1] - China's purchasing demand remains the primary driver of trade, with Brazil's competitive soybean prices leading to increased purchases from China, thereby deepening Brazil's reliance on the Chinese market [1] - Domestic demand from crushing enterprises has risen, boosting sales of downstream products like soybean meal and oil [1] Market Dynamics - The significant appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar has limited domestic soybean price increases, reducing export revenues and suppressing domestic prices below previous high levels [1] - Exchange rate fluctuations are a critical variable affecting domestic soybean prices, with the real's appreciation leading to decreased revenue per ton when converted to reais, prompting some producers to delay sales in anticipation of better market conditions [1] - Industry insiders expect that as long as export demand remains strong and domestic crushing plants continue active procurement, Brazilian soybean sales will remain robust; however, the direction of the exchange rate will continue to influence domestic pricing trends, necessitating flexible sales strategies from producers and traders [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]