1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats are oscillating and falling due to the recent significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which put pressure on the three major vegetable oils. However, from a fundamental perspective, the further implementation of biodiesel in Southeast Asia in the future, combined with the later shift in El Niño weather, will strongly support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9866.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 64 yuan and a range of - 0.64%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8668.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 46.00 yuan and a range of - 0.53%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9884.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a range of - 0.07% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9830.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 160.00 yuan and a range of + 1.65%, and the spot basis was P05 - 36.00, with a month - on - month change of + 224.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8860.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 50.00 yuan/ton and a range of + 0.57%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 192.00, with a month - on - month change of + 96.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20.00 yuan and a range of - 0.19%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 516.00, with a month - on - month change of - 13.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Soybean prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 511 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 505 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (May shipment) was 476 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: The premium for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (April shipment) was 216 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (May shipment) was 139 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - Other oil prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1299 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1120 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1100 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 591 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 600 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, trading volumes, production, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

1. Overall Situation - The soybean futures and spot prices have fluctuated recently. The main contract of Dou - Yi 2605 has stopped falling in a volatile adjustment, and the spot price has dropped from 4,840 yuan/ton to around 4,700 yuan/ton in Fujin. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 has continued to decline, and the spot price has dropped from 3,300 yuan/ton to around 3,150 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang [3]. 2. Domestic Soybean Sales and Auction - Domestic soybean sales are sluggish, and the sales progress is slow. As of March 27, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang was 30% (unchanged from the previous week), 35% in Anhui (down 1% from the previous week), 39% in Henan (down 1% from the previous week), and 40% in Shandong (down 1% from the previous week). The remaining grain is much higher than the same period last year. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned again at the end of March, with over 200,000 tons auctioned and a low transaction rate [3]. 3. Soybean Import and Arrival - With the listing of South American soybeans, the domestic market may shift to concentrated imports of Brazilian soybeans. As of March 27, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.586 million tons, a week - on - week increase, and the port soybean inventory was 4.828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. 4. U.S. Soybean Situation - U.S. soybeans have been in a volatile consolidation recently. The negotiation between the U.S. and Iran may take place, but the result is unknown, and the crude oil price is still strong. The upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) planting report is worthy of attention. The planting area of new - season U.S. soybeans may increase, and the previous USDA Outlook Forum predicted it to be 85 million acres (a 4.7% year - on - year increase) [4]. 5. Oil Mill Operations and Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, and the soybean meal inventory has increased. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market is good. As of March 27, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.53%, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 4.8202 million tons, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean meal output was 1.449 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 676,800 tons, a slight week - on - week increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 2.718 million tons, a week - on - week decrease. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.35 days, a week - on - week increase, indicating strong downstream demand [4]. 6. Feed Demand and Livestock Farming - Feed demand is strong in the short term, but long - term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the pig - farming industry, pig prices have fallen to extremely low levels, and farming is seriously loss - making. As of March 27, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 189.87 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 344.24 yuan per head. In the poultry industry, egg prices have rebounded, but farming still incurs losses. In February, the sales volume of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in February increased month - on - month. The high inventory of livestock and poultry currently supports feed demand, but the increasing losses may accelerate capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [5]. 7. Market Outlook - Due to the sluggish sales of domestic soybeans and the resumption of state - reserve auctions, and the increase in imports of non - genetically modified soybeans, it is expected that Dou - Yi will enter a high - level volatile state. With the increase in domestic soybean arrivals, attention should be paid to the import of Brazilian soybeans from South America. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, the soybean meal inventory has increased, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean meal will return to a fundamental volatile trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news stimulation; for soybean oil, attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory and planting intention report [1] - Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy plan this year, which was previously put on hold due to technical and financial concerns but is being discussed for restart due to global energy supply disruptions [3][5] - The US EPA has finalized the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) annual obligation volumes (RVOs), with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil主力 had a daily - session closing price with a 1.66% increase and a night - session closing price with a 0.75% increase; soybean oil主力 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.30% and a night - session increase of 0.46%; rapeseed oil主力 had a daily - session increase of 0.14% and a night - session increase of 0.13%. The Malaysian palm oil主力 increased by 3.07% in the daily session and 0.59% in the night session, and CBOT soybean oil主力 increased by 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For palm oil主力, the trading volume was 501,201 lots with a change of 153,036, and the open interest was 280,149 lots with a decrease of 8,265; for soybean oil主力, the trading volume was 298,200 lots with a change of 96,747, and the open interest was 498,900 lots with a decrease of 38,768; for rapeseed oil主力, the trading volume was 207,805 lots with a change of 60,479, and the open interest was 199,645 lots with a decrease of 13,357 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton with a price change of 130 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton with no price change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton with no price change; the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,190 US dollars/ton with a price change of 5 US dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 150 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 306 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 259 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was - 39 yuan/ton; the futures price spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,216 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 98 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 0.92%, with a decrease of 3.61% in the Malay Peninsula, an increase of 5.59% in Sabah, an increase of 9.87% in Sarawak, and an increase of 6.67% in East Malaysia [2] - The US EPA finalized the 2026 and 2027 RFS annual obligation volumes, with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% to between 5 and 5.7 billion gallons per year [6] - As of March 28, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 74.3%, compared with 67.7% last week, 81.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 72.4% [7] - Iran plans to implement stricter access and toll systems for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are affected by oil price fluctuations and are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The upward space for soybean oil is limited due to weak drivers from the soybean sector [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,718 yuan/ton (down 0.80% during the day session) and 9,724 yuan/ton (up 0.06% during the night session). Soybean oil主力 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton (up 0.14% during the day session) and 8,640 yuan/ton (up 0.14% during the night session). Rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,876 yuan/ton (up 0.22% during the day session) and 9,860 yuan/ton (down 0.16% during the night session). CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.53 cents/pound (up 0.18%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume decreased by 83,790 hands to 407,410 hands, and open interest decreased by 11,646 hands to 319,450 hands. Soybean oil主力 trading volume decreased by 25,297 hands to 225,724 hands, and open interest decreased by 398 hands to 594,096 hands. Rapeseed oil主力 trading volume increased by 8,249 hands to 201,004 hands, and open interest increased by 2,919 hands to 237,433 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was priced at 9,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,215 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 312 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 304 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 158 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 1,090 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 60 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 133 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026, were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - In the 12th week of 2026 (March 14 - 20), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week and 61,000 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 54.81% [2]. - China imported 1.49 million tons of US soybeans from January - February 2026, a significant 83.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, imports from Brazil increased by 82.8% to 6.56 million tons, and imports from Argentina increased from 111,603 tons to 3.27 million tons [3]. - As of the week ending March 15, 2026, Canada's canola exports increased by 157.4% to 292,100 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The BMD palm oil futures market was closed on March 20 and March 23 due to the Eid al - Fitr holiday and will resume trading on March 24 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the week from March 23 - 27, the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for new market information. For soybean meal, the US soybean market has declined due to the postponement of Trump's visit to China, and the progress of Brazil's soybean export inspection events should be monitored. The slight reduction in domestic soybean crushing is expected to support the spot price. For soybeans, there is currently no additional positive news, and after more than half a year of price increases, there is a need for adjustment and market sales, so the price is expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for new market information [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - In the week from March 16 - 20, US soybean futures prices mainly declined. As of the week of March 20, the main US soybean 05 - contract had a weekly decline of 5.17%, and the main US soybean meal 05 - contract had a weekly increase of 1.8%. During the same period, domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices also declined. The main soybean meal m2605 - contract had a weekly decline of 3.16%, and the main soybean a2605 - contract had a weekly decline of 3.28% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **US soybean net sales**: In the week of March 12, 2026, the weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current year (2025/26) were about 300,000 tons (about 460,000 tons in the previous week), and in the next market year (2026/27) were about 6,600 tons (9,500 tons in the previous week). The total was about 306,600 tons (about 470,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were about 80,000 tons (about 83,000 tons in the previous week), with cumulative sales of about 1.098 million tons [1]. - **Brazilian soybean import cost**: As of the week of March 20, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - **Brazilian soybean harvest progress**: As of the week of March 12, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 was 61%, compared with 70% in the same period last year. The harvest speed is still the slowest since 2020/21, and some states still face delays [1]. - **South American soybean产区 weather forecast**: From March 21 to April 3, precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be basically normal, with increased precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul and slightly less precipitation in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Temperatures in most main - producing areas will be higher. In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, there will be more precipitation on March 21 and less precipitation for the rest of the time, with temperatures first low and then high [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading volume**: As of the week of March 20, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 190,000 tons, up from about 170,000 tons in the previous week [2][3]. - **Pick - up volume**: As of the week of March 20, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 168,000 tons, down from about 177,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: As of the week of March 20, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 286 yuan/ton, compared with about 228 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 533 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 13, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was about 590,000 tons, with a week - on - week decline of about 18% and a year - on - year decline of about 5% [3]. - **Crushing volume**: As of the week of March 20, the weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.99 million tons (1.97 million tons in the previous week and 1.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (54% in the previous week and 40% in the same period last year). Next week (March 21 - 27), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.94 million tons (1.2 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 53% (34% in the same period last year) [3]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - **Soybean price**: In the week from March 16 - 20, domestic soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,740 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week; in some inland regions, the purchase price was in the range of 5,160 - 5,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans was in the range of 5,020 - 5,240 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [4]. - **Selling sentiment in the northeastern production area**: Due to the continuous decline in soybean futures prices, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has become more cautious. Some farmers are more active in selling their grains, while a small number of farmers are waiting and watching. Most trading entities are more willing to sell [4]. - **Sentiment in the sales area**: Market dealers said that although the loading price at the origin has increased, due to fierce market competition, most soybean product factories have enough raw materials for production for some time and are not in a hurry to replenish their inventories. Some soybean product factories may stop or limit production and wait for a better time to replenish their inventories if the raw material soybean price continues to rise [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for oils and fats is sluggish, and prices are oscillating. Global economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may delay purchases and limit upward price movement. After a significant increase driven by crude oil prices, spot demand remains weak, leading to an adjustment in oils and fats prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Performance - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9796 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan or 1.07% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8616 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan or 0.89% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9854 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan or 0.76% [1] Spot Market Performance - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of P05 - 76 yuan, down 74 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.69%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 184 yuan, down 16 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10380 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 0.68%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 526 yuan, down 4 yuan [1] Recent Market News - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price was 598 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton; (July shipment) was 607 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price was 1248 dollars/ton, up 56 dollars/ton; (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, up 29 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1150 dollars/ton, unchanged; (June shipment) was 1130 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 509 dollars/ton, unchanged; US West soybeans (April shipment) was 503 dollars/ton, unchanged; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 480 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 222 cents/bushel, down 7 cents/bushel; US West Coast (April shipment) was 206 cents/bushel, down 7 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 145 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel [2] - From March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects palm oil prices to remain above 4450 ringgit/ton due to strong energy prices and favorable palm - gasoline spreads [2] - International CNF quotes for palm oil continued to rise, increasing China's import costs. On March 18, the CNF quotes for 24 - degree palm oil for April and May shipments were 1200 dollars/ton and 1228 dollars/ton respectively, up 22 - 50 dollars/ton from the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated. Driven by rising crude oil, geopolitical conflicts, and expectations of biofuel policies, the market is short - term bullish, but the fundamental demand is weak. The strengthening of the energy attribute has driven the prices of palm oil and soybean oil to rise in tandem with crude oil. The tense situation in the Middle East has enhanced the economic viability of biodiesel, supporting the prices of oils and fats. However, high inventories and the post - holiday consumption off - season have made downstream procurement cautious. Overall, the oils and fats are oscillating [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9954.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 56 yuan and a decline of - 0.56%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8644.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 72.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9833.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 115.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.16% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9850.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 110.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.10%, and the spot basis was P05 - 104.00, with a month - on - month change of - 54.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8770.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 120.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 1.35%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 126.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 170.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 527.00, with a month - on - month change of - 55.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price was 594 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 600 US dollars/ton, down 27 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price was 1238 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) C&F price was 1220 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1150 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1130 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 534 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 528 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 472 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 299 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; US West Coast (April shipment) was 283 cents/bushel, up 69 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 130 cents/bushel, up 10 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of easing, international crude oil prices remain high, and the shipping freight for imported soybeans in China continues to rise. On March 16, the shipping freight for soybeans from the US Gulf to China was quoted at 59 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the same period last week; the freight from the US West to China was quoted at 33 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the freight from Brazil to China was quoted at 52 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The US soybean futures continued to strengthen this week, mainly driven by macro factors and good performance in the biodiesel sector. However, the fundamental support is limited, with average export sales and increasing pressure from the South American market. The domestic soybean meal spot market is under significant pressure, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The rapeseed meal market is also under pressure, despite its recent strong performance driven by the soybean meal and international rapeseed markets [5][6]. - Given the many macro disturbances and the inability of the fundamentals to support continuous price increases, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading. For arbitrage, the MRM09 spread is expected to narrow, and for options, selling call options on near - month contracts is suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis of the US soybean market**: The US soybean futures are strongly influenced by macro and weather factors. The recent increase in international oil prices and shipping costs has raised the import cost of US soybeans. Although the export situation is average, the US soybean crushing volume is strong, mainly due to high oil and meal prices, good biodiesel demand, and a favorable international soybean meal export situation. However, the US soybean market still faces pressure due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability [5][13]. - **Analysis of the Brazilian soybean market**: Brazilian soybean prices have shown a downward trend. The weather in the Brazilian production area has affected the yield in the southern region, but the overall harvest progress is relatively good. The export volume is increasing, and it is expected to reach about 16.09 million tons this month [16]. - **Analysis of the domestic soybean meal market**: The domestic soybean meal futures have risen significantly, mainly driven by macro factors. The spot market is cold, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The overall supply is relatively sufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Analysis of the domestic rapeseed meal market**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures have strengthened, influenced by the soybean meal and the international rapeseed market. The demand is average, and the supply is improving, with expected increases in rapeseed and rapeseed meal arrivals. The overall market is still under pressure [22]. - **Trading strategies**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM09 spread; for options, sell call options on near - month contracts [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Multiple factors drive the US soybean futures up**: The US soybean futures are affected by macro and weather factors. The increase in international oil prices and shipping costs has led to higher import costs, and the downward adjustment of the Brazilian soybean yield has provided support. However, the export situation is average, and the market still faces pressure [13]. - **Lower Brazilian production and weather disturbances**: Brazilian soybean prices have declined. The weather in the Brazilian production area has affected the yield in the southern region, and the export volume is increasing. The weather in Argentina is relatively dry, but the impact on production is limited [16]. - **Weak market transactions and rising futures**: The domestic soybean meal futures have risen significantly, driven by macro factors. The spot market is cold, with decreased transactions and a continuous decline in basis. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Improved supply and strong rapeseed meal futures**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures have strengthened, influenced by the soybean meal and the international rapeseed market. The demand is average, and the supply is improving, with expected increases in rapeseed and rapeseed meal arrivals. The overall market is still under pressure [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International market**: The report presents data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing data. It also shows data on foreign soybean premiums [26][29][32]. - **Macro factors**: It includes exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Argentine peso, as well as international shipping cost data [35][38][44]. - **Supply**: Data on soybean and rapeseed imports and crushing volumes are provided [50]. - **Demand**: Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货量 are presented [53]. - **Inventory**: Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories are provided [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The recent strength of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is triggered by the Middle - East situation. The report analyzes the situation from three aspects: supply - demand fundamentals, international market linkages, and capital and market sentiment. It also provides outlooks for the market under three different scenarios of the Middle - East situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Fluctuations As of 11:30 on March 9, 2026, soybean meal was locked at the daily limit, and rapeseed meal slightly fell from the daily limit. In the afternoon, soybean meal opened the limit, and both soybean and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The import cost of soybeans has risen, there are concerns about supply shortages due to potential delays in Brazilian soybean arrivals and RMB exchange - rate fluctuations. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to anti - dumping duties. The crushing profit has been low, resulting in limited soybean meal supply. The downstream replenishment demand has risen as inventories have decreased year - on - year [1]. - **International market linkages**: The CBOT soybean price has risen due to increased biodiesel demand expectations. South American weather conditions may affect soybean production, and overseas rapeseed production may be lower, causing the ICE rapeseed price to rise slightly [1]. - **Capital and market sentiment**: A large amount of long - position capital has flowed into the market, and the market sentiment has been high. Short - term funds in the futures market have chased hot - spot varieties, amplifying price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Future Market Outlook - **Scenario 1: The Middle - East situation ends within a week**: The upward trend of protein feed may end, or it may rise first and then fall, returning to a volatile state [2]. - **Scenario 2: The Middle - East situation lasts and worsens, ending in 2 - 4 weeks**: Brazilian soybean arrivals may be delayed, and the protein feed will continue to rise, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Scenario 3: The Middle - East situation turns into a long - term war**: Global fertilizer prices may rise, increasing the cost of U.S. soybean planting. The soaring oil price will stimulate biodiesel demand, further pushing up the price of U.S. soybeans. The domestic protein feed price will rise significantly, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **For spot enterprises**: Oil mills should focus on basis sales opportunities in March. Soybean meal traders should buy on dips for hedging and sell basis at high levels. Downstream feed and breeding enterprises should also buy on dips for hedging and basis. If there are no positions, buying spot at a fixed price and stockpiling safety inventories is a practical choice [4]. - **For institutional investors**: Buy on dips. If holding long positions, set stop - loss and take - profit levels, and add positions on dips while controlling the position size. Also, buy put options or construct a collar strategy to hedge the risk of sudden price drops [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the cost increase drives the price to run strongly. Geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity price fluctuations. Although the overall soybean meal price is at the cost bottom and fully reflects the expectation of loose supply and demand, the price is likely to break through upwards under the background of international and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - For oils and fats, in the short term, the continuous Middle - East war and geopolitical risks lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, supporting the oils and fats to continue to oscillate strongly. However, attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustment of oils and fats if the Middle - East situation eases. It is recommended to take a long position in soybean and palm oils and roll over existing long positions [73]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends As of March 6, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis price was 05 + 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The domestic spot supply and demand remained loose, and the basis price was weak; the 05 contract followed the increase in US soybean cost and the price ran strongly [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End The conflict between the US and Iran pushed up the crude oil price, which was expected to drive up the price of US soybean oil and support the price of US soybeans. The new - season planting cost of US soybeans was affected by the recent increase in fertilizer prices, supporting the upward shift of the center price of US soybeans. The increase in crude oil price also drove up international freight rates and supported the premium price. Although the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans declined, the CNF price did not weaken significantly. The geopolitical situation pushed up the price of US soybeans. If the Iran war continued, the price of US soybeans was expected to continue to rise. The premium in Brazil remained around 100 cents, and the significant increase in freight rates limited the decline of the Brazilian premium price. The continuous drought in Argentina affected the soybean, with the good - quality rate declining and the output expected to decline slightly, but the overall supply - demand in South America remained loose. The arrivals in China from April to May were gradually increasing, and the supply - demand remained loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End The domestic pig inventory remained at a high level but entered the seasonal off - season, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. The poultry inventory was at a high level, and the egg - laying hens and broilers inventory remained high. In terms of the formula, the prices of corn and wheat increased, and soybean meal was more cost - effective, with the proportion of soybean meal added increasing steadily. The overall demand for soybean meal remained high. Recently, the price of soybean meal increased, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers improved, with better transactions. In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills increased to 596.69 million tons, an increase of 77.15 million tons or 14.85% week - on - week, and an increase of 181.29 million tons or 43.64% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory of national oil mills decreased to 70.12 million tons, a decrease of 14.13 million tons or 16.77% week - on - week, and an increase of 7.19 million tons or 11.43% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the theoretical price of soybean meal was calculated to be 2940 yuan/ton. From July to September, calculated with a premium of 140 cents, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased to 3020 yuan/ton. The announced planting cost of US soybeans for the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel. If the crude oil price continued to rise, referring to the trend of fertilizer prices after the Russia - Ukraine war in 2021, the planting cost was expected to continue to rise. In terms of import crushing profit, the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose significantly, and the import crushing profit improved. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level was at a relatively good level in the same period of history [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends As of the week of March 6, the main 05 contract of palm oil rose 438 yuan/ton to 9218 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 420 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of palm oil fell 18 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of soybean oil rose 186 yuan/ton to 8412 yuan/ton week - on - week; the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang rose 90 yuan/ton to 8720 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of soybean oil fell 96 yuan/ton to 308 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of rapeseed oil rose 481 yuan/ton to 9666 yuan/ton week - on - week; the third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 420 yuan/ton to 10040 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of rapeseed oil fell 61 yuan/ton to 374 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by the Middle - East war, the crude oil price rose rapidly, driving the domestic vegetable oils to oscillate strongly. Among them, palm oil, which was most closely related to crude oil, and rapeseed oil, with relatively tight domestic supply - demand, performed relatively strongly [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil In February, Malaysia continued to reduce production. According to SPPOMA and MPOA data, the output of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 16.24 - 19.35% month - on - month, and the decline was larger than that from February 1 - 20. However, affected by the export squeeze from Indonesia, shipping agencies reported that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 21.5 - 25.46% month - on - month. The poor export data limited the de - stocking amplitude, and the estimated inventory in February was 2.63 million tons, which decreased month - on - month but was still relatively high. In Indonesia, as the crude oil price rose, GAPKI indicated that B50 might be reconsidered in 2026, and the production side faced the risk of production reduction due to the nationalization of plantations in 2025, both of which were positive factors. In the short term, driven by the rise of crude oil, the 05 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the performance near the previous resistance level of 4400 - 4460. In China, the arrival volume of palm oil in February was expected to increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. As of the week of February 27, the domestic palm oil inventory rose to a high of 786,700 tons. However, the estimated arrival volume of palm oil from March to April was low, and attention should be paid to whether de - stocking could start from March to April after the reduction in supply [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil The USDA would release the March report on March 10. The market expected that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season might be lowered, mainly because the positive US biodiesel policy was expected to be implemented in late March, which was beneficial to the US soybean crushing demand, and China's procurement would boost the US soybean export demand. In South America, the USDA March report was expected to slightly lower the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the 2025/26 season to 178 million tons and 48.1 million tons respectively. However, Brazil was still expected to have a bumper harvest and was expected to flood the market in the second quarter, which would impact the US soybean export demand. In addition, US soybean oil was strong due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the rise of international crude oil, which strongly supported US soybeans. Overall, driven by the rise of international crude oil and US soybean oil, the improvement of US soybean demand, and the slight production reduction in South America, the 05 contract of US soybeans was expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. After breaking through 1200, attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1250. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans from February to March decreased seasonally, and there were market rumors that the customs had extended the clearance time for South American soybeans, which was beneficial to the de - stocking of soybean oil inventory. As of the week of February 27, the soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 913,300 tons. However, after March, a record amount of South American soybeans would enter China, and the scope of further de - stocking of soybean oil inventory was limited [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil The Middle - East war pushed up the international crude oil price and freight rates, strengthening the cost - side support for domestic imported rapeseed. In addition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, exacerbating the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed oil and jointly driving up the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, on February 27, the final anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed was concluded. China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed was 15%, significantly lower than the previous 75.8% deposit. Although the current loss of crushing profit for importing Canadian rapeseed in China restricted ship - buying, the trade channel between the two countries had been reopened. As long as the crushing profit was appropriate, China could import a large amount of Canadian rapeseed in the future. Coupled with the arrival of 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed purchased earlier from March to May, it was expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed in China would significantly ease after March. As of the week of February 27, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas had begun to increase to 151,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory had also slightly increased to 271,000 tons. The inventory inflection point had appeared, and the inventory would continue to accumulate in the future [73].