2025 年 10 月 12 日 車 度 千 国庆前后(09.29-10.10),美豆期价涨跌互现,期价上涨主要因为中美谈判希望(10月1日美国总 统特朗普表示,他将在四周后与中国国家主席习近平会面,大豆贸易将成为核心议题)和美国政策支持 (10 月 2 日美国财长贝森特表示,美国政府将为美国农民、特别是大豆种植者推出支持性政策);期价下 跌主要因为中美贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温（10月10日特朗普表示,没有理由按计划在两周后在韩国与中国 领导人会面;随后,特朗普宣布将从11月1日起对中国商品加征额外100%进口关税)。从周Ｋ线角度, 10月 3日当周,美豆主力 11月合约周涨幅 8.3%; 10月 10 日当周兴 美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 0.98%。 国庆前后 (09.29-09.30、10.09-10.10),国内豆粕期价偏弱,豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面,主要交 易中美缓和、中加缓和。豆一方面,盘面偏强主要因为国内政策支持预期、国庆期间美豆价格上涨带动。 东北产区新豆现货价格稳中偏弱。从周 K 线角度，18 月 10 日当周（节后两个交易日），豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 0.2%,豆一主力 a2511 ...

您瞅今年初那出戏，美国大豆刚靠着降价促销拉回点订单，中国采购商转头就投奔巴西怀抱。这操作好比相亲时遇到前任求复合，嘴上说 考虑身体却很诚实地选了新对象。最绝的是巴西那边港口扩建、压榨产能飙升，活像开了挂的超级供应商。 炸裂消息！特朗普的关税大棒这次彻底砸到自家脚背上了——美国大豆被巴西组团抢单，连牛肉市场也要拱手让人！这剧情反转比美剧还 刺激，所以老美的"农业霸权"真要凉凉了吗？ 要我说啊，这场贸易博弈简直像在看《商战甄嬛传》。表面是关税拉锯战，内里却藏着三重变局：买方市场的强势崛起、供应链的永久迁 移、农业格局的重新洗牌。今儿个咱们就掀开这场"粮食战争"的底牌，看看谁才是未来餐桌的真正主宰。 大豆市场的"绝地反杀" 牛肉战争的"降维打击" 美国牛排过去在中国超市那可是镶金边的存在，现在呢？巴西草饲牛用价格优势直接掀桌。这感觉好比米其林餐厅干不过社区食堂，顾客 用钱包投票才是最真实的。更扎心的是拉美各国还在疯狂扩产，简直要把牛肉做成"白菜价"。 采购逻辑的"静默革命 中国买家的采购手册早就升级到4.0版本：不要最便宜，只要最稳定；不要最好听，只要最靠谱。这套"去风险化"采购策略，直接把美国农 产品从"必需品" ...

以前美国大豆价格跟巴西差不多，甚至出油率高1到2个百分点，这在大规模压榨里很值钱，所以很多中国 企业更愿意买美豆。但关税加上去以后，美国豆价格立马没优势了。巴西豆便宜，自然就拿下了大部分订 单。中国买巴西豆不是为了跟美国过不去，而是因为成本差了好几百元一吨，这在加工企业的利润表里是 硬杠杠的数字。 我看到商务部的数据，今年1到4月，中国从美国采购了接近2000万吨大豆。1到9月采购巴西大豆大约8000 万吨。按照中国每年进口大豆1.2亿吨的常规规模，剩下也就两千万吨不到的"空间"。贸易是算账的，中国 企业不会为感情溢价去买贵货，除非美国自己调整价格。 你有没有发现，美国这些高官一张嘴能把黑的说成白的，而且还说得理直气壮。昨天晚上我看到美国财政 部长贝森特在CNBC的访谈里居然说，中国把美国大豆种植户当成了贸易谈判的人质。我第一反应就是， 这话怎么这么离谱。 人质的定义很简单，就是非法控制人，用生命健康自由做筹码去逼别人答应条件。美国农民在中国吗？不 在。有人限制他们的生命健康自由吗？没有。那这哪门子人质？这不是硬造一个情绪标签吗？目的特别明 显，就是要让美国国内怨气集中在"中国不买我们大豆"这件事上。 我查了 ...

不过，中方并没有回应特朗普的请求。中国之所以对美国大豆失去了兴趣，主要原因是特朗普对华加征关税，削弱了美国大豆的竞争力。对比之下，巴西大 豆免税，价格较美国低10%-15%，同样的，阿根廷也在9月22日取消了大豆、玉米、小麦等农产品的出口税。没了中国订单，美国豆农正一筹莫展。然而， 就在这个时候，赖清德当局出手了。9月30日，他在接见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格时宣布，台湾打算在未来四年购买100亿美元的美国农 产品，主要包括大豆、小麦、玉米和牛肉。 9月30日，赖清德会见美国农业部贸易及对外农业事务次长林德柏格 我们知道，台湾作为一个以山地为主的省，可供发展农业的土地非常有限，农业相当脆弱，一旦美国农产品进入台湾市场，台湾本地农业将遭受灭顶之灾。 赖清德对此不可能不清楚，然而他选择为美国雪中送炭，帮助特朗普政府与中国大陆打关税战的做法，引发了本地民众的强烈不满。岛内媒体强调，赖清德 这是要把台湾的农产品当"献礼"送给美国，进一步掏空台湾。100亿美元采购清单，等于每位台湾民众要承担近4000元新台币的成本。 今年秋季，美国农场主迎来一场大丰收，但他们的脸上看不到喜悦。在往年的这个时间段，中国作为 ...

2025年美国大豆丰收季，农场主约翰的仓库里堆满了金黄的豆子，但他一点也高兴不起来。 "这些大豆本该运往中国，但现在连一张订单都没有。 "约翰面 对媒体时声音低沉，"如果再不卖出，我可能得卖掉祖辈传下的农场了。 " 同样的焦虑笼罩着美国中西部农业带。 美国大豆协会主席拉格兰将当前危机形容 为"五级火警"，往年占美国大豆出口总量25%的中国市场，在新一季采购中彻底归零。 这一局面源于2025年4月特朗普政府升级对华关税政策。 中国随之采取反制措施，将美国大豆排除在主要采购名单之外。 芝加哥期货交易所的交易员们发 现，出口检验报告上对中国的大豆装船量连续数月显示为"0.0"，这是二十年来首次在出口季出现如此漫长的空白。 与此同时，在地球另一端的中国港口， 调度中心的屏幕上闪烁着巴西、阿根廷甚至坦桑尼亚的船舶标志，却唯独不见美国货轮的踪迹。 特朗普的紧急喊话与政治焦虑 2025年8月10日深夜，特朗普在社交媒体发出强烈呼吁，要求中国"火速加购4倍美国大豆"，并威胁"否则休想达成任何贸易协议"。 他宣称美国大豆是"全球 顶尖品质"，增加进口将"大幅缩减美中贸易逆差"。 但这一喊话并未得到中方积极响应。 几周后，特朗普 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 28 日 豆粕：震荡，规避国庆长假风险 豆一：新豆上市，市场预期政策支持 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（09.22-09.26），美豆期价偏弱运行，主要因为阿根廷免税事件扰动、中美贸易摩擦忧虑（中 方尚未开启美豆采购）。从周 K 线角度，9 月 26 日当周，美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 1.17%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周跌幅 3.27%。 上周（09.22-09.26），国内豆粕期价偏弱，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，主要因为阿根廷出口免税政 策扰动、"缺货"担忧缓解。豆一方面，主要因为政策支持预期。从周 K 线角度，9 月 26 日当周，豆粕主 力 m2601 合约周跌幅 2.55%，豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 0.79%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华 财经） 上周（09.22-09.26），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）美豆净销售周环比下降、符合预期，影响 中性偏空。据 USDA 出口销售报告，9 月 18 日当周，装船方面，2025/26 年美豆出口装船约 51 万吨 ...

美国中西部广阔的农田里，金黄色的豆浪随风起伏，这本应是一年中最充满希望的季节，但豆农们脸上却不见笑容。 "美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰坐在他的拖拉机上，通过美国广播公司的直播镜头向特朗普总统发出紧急呼吁。他身后是 一片丰收的大豆田，但这位肯塔基州豆农的眼中只有担忧。 以往此时，美国大豆对华年销量中应有约1/3已完成交易，但今年 。拉格兰直言："中国市场对我们的生计至关重要，我们需要的是立即行动，而不是空谈。" 美国大豆正处于收获季节，但豆农们却面临前所未有的危机。根据美国大豆协会统计，美国产大豆以往有25%销往中国，但 今年新一季大豆开镰后，对华销量却仍为零。 拉格兰在接受《财富》杂志采访时警告：" 。"他指出，在以农业为主的肯塔基州，新一季大豆已经开始收割，但当地豆农尚未收获一笔来自中国的订单。 伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州、明尼苏达州和印第安纳州等美国大豆核心产区所受影响尤为深重。这些州的大豆产量约占全美总产 量的一半，如今却共同面对"零订单"的困境。 美国农业部数据显示，2024年美国对华大豆出口额达128亿美元。但今年，中国这个最大买家却尚未下达任何订单。 关税导致美国大豆价格处于明显劣势。拉格兰指出，由于 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a downward trend, with soybean futures experiencing a significant drop of 4.63%, settling at 3544.00 CNY/ton [1] - As of September 19, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 7.52 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 320,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 50,000 tons compared to the past three-year average [2] - The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was reported at 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and down from 63% the previous week and 64% the same time last year [2] Group 2 - New Century Futures predicts a short-term rebound for soybean futures, but a medium-term bearish trend, influenced by drought conditions affecting U.S. soybeans and high inventory levels in domestic oil mills [3] - The report highlights that the supply of soybeans is abundant, with domestic oil mills operating at high capacity, leading to pressure on soybean meal inventories [3] - Future supply expectations are influenced by U.S.-China trade relations, the realization of U.S. soybean yields, and adjustments in the purchasing rhythm and direction of domestic firms [3]

【粕类周报】供应压力体现 粕类回落加深 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现小幅回落态势，前期利多体现比较充分后，盘面呈现比较明显的回落压力。美国市场近期变化有限，作物收获逐步开始，但优良 率有所下滑，总体产量预计维持高位。近期出口方面仍然缺乏明显改善，同时压榨带动也比较有限。市场整体供需方面带动比较有限。不过当前美 豆价位对于利多体现也比较有限，因此下方支撑也同样存在。南美近期价格表现出一定压力，一方面近期宏观方面影响有所增加，另一方面，南美 市场整体供应仍然比较充足，巴西大豆产量维持高位，虽然压榨方面表现良好，但后续总体出口仍然处于相对偏高水平，价格压力仍然存在。阿根 廷大豆产量维持相对偏高水平，近期受宏观方面影响以及前期出口量较大影响，整体供应压力有所好转。总体来看，当前国际大豆市场供应相对比 较宽松，但价格对于利空体现也比较多，因此预计进一步深跌空间也相对比较有限，整体以震荡运行为主。 国内豆粕供需仍然相对偏宽松，大豆到港量相对较大，油厂开机率也同样维持相对较高水平，豆粕需求表现良好，整体供 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the soybean and related product markets from September 15 - 19, 2025, and predicts that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures may rebound next week (September 22 - 26, 2025). The domestic soybean meal market may correct its previous expectations due to the change in the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, while the domestic soybean No. 1 futures is expected to fluctuate with the market sentiment and focus on technical trading [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Market Trends of Futures - **US Soybean Futures**: Last week, the US soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. The main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 1.84%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.42% [1]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures were weak. The main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 2.11%, and the main a2511 contract of soybean No. 1 had a weekly decline of 1.39% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: In the week of September 11, 2025, the net sales of US soybeans increased week - on - week, meeting expectations. The export shipment of 2025/26 US soybeans was about 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 88%; the cumulative export shipment was about 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 41%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 922,000 tons, meeting expectations (400,000 - 1.5 million tons). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were 0 [1]. - **US Soybean Good - Quality Rate**: As of the week of September 15, 2025, the good - quality rate of US soybeans was 63%, down from the previous week's 64% and the same as last year's 64%, meeting market expectations, with a neutral - to - slightly - bullish impact [1]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average weekly CNF premium of November Brazilian soybeans decreased, the average import cost increased slightly, and the average crushing profit on the futures market decreased. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the sowing progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was about 0.12%, ahead of last year's 0.06%. Currently, soybean sowing is mainly carried out in Paraná, and sowing has also started in Mato Grosso and São Paulo. However, due to low soil moisture, the sowing progress in Mato Grosso is slow [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 130,000 tons, compared with about 170,000 tons in the previous week [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of September 18, 2025, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 198,000 tons, compared with about 197,600 tons in the previous week [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 30 yuan/ton, compared with about - 42 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 28 yuan/ton in the same period last year [2][3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.05 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of about 14% [3]. - **Crushing Volume**: The weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans increased week - on - week and is expected to decrease next week. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the weekly crushing volume of domestic soybeans was about 2.43 million tons (2.36 million tons in the previous week and 2.05 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 68% (66% in the previous week and 58% in the same period last year). Next week (September 20 - 26, 2025), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.39 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 67% (59% in the same period last year) [3]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price remained stable. The purchase price of clean soybean grains in some parts of Northeast China was in the range of 4,160 - 4,240 yuan/ton, that in some parts of the Inner Pass was in the range of 5,120 - 5,260 yuan/ton, and the selling price of edible soybeans in the sales area was in the range of 4,660 - 4,840 yuan/ton, all the same as the previous week [4]. - **New - Crop Soybeans in Northeast China**: New - crop soybeans in the Northeast were sporadically on the market, and no mainstream price had been formed yet. Due to the rainy - then - sunny weather in the Northeast, the harvest time of new - crop soybeans was postponed. Although the number of harvesting locations increased, most were early - maturing varieties [4]. - **State - Reserve Soybean Auction**: The state - reserve soybean auction was suspended, and the market was waiting for the increase in new - crop soybean harvest [4]. - **Sales Area Demand**: The demand in the sales area was differentiated. The sales of soybeans in the northern market were normal, and dealers were consuming inventory and waiting for new - crop soybeans. The sales of domestic soybeans in the southern market were slow due to the lack of obvious improvement in the demand for soy products [4].