长江期货粕类油脂月报 2026-03-02 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：地缘风险加剧，价格偏强运行 02 油脂：宏观及资金离场扰动，高位波 动加剧 目 录 01 豆粕：地缘风险加剧，价格偏强运行 01 豆粕：地缘风险加剧，价格偏强运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止2月27日，华东现货报价3030元/吨，月度报价下跌30元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2833元/吨，月度上涨66元/吨；基差报价05+200 元/吨，基差报价下跌100元/吨。国内2-3月供需宽松延续，叠加盘面上行，基差及现货价格走弱。 ◆ 供应端：美伊冲突推动原油价格上涨，预计带动美豆油价格上行，支撑美豆价格；同时原油价格上行，带动国际运费上涨，支撑升贴水价格。 美豆方面，受中国新增800万吨采购预期以及生物柴油支撑影响，美豆价格持续偏强运行，触及25年11月来新高；巴西升贴水维持在100美分 附近，巴西国内库存低位，销售压力兑现前预计跌幅有限， ...

上周(02.23~02.27),美豆期价小幅上升,利多因素:美国关税政策缓和(2月25日美国贸易代 表杰米森 · 格里尔表示,特朗普政府不打算提高对中国商品的关税)、美豆油偏强带动（美国生物燃料生 产前景明朗:生物燃料惨混要求预计3月底前最终确定、大型炼油厂至少弥补一半生物燃料修混豁免额度 等);偏空因素:美国关税政策不确定《美国贸易代表格里尔表示,将继续推进对中国履行中美第一阶段 经贸协议情况 301 调查,并可能采取关税措施)、市场担忧中方采购美豆需求受到影响。截至２月 27日, 美豆主力 05 合约周涨幅 1.41%,美豆粕主力 05 合约周涨幅 1.85%。 上周(02.24~02.27),国内豆粕和豆一期价"先跌后涨、重心上移"。豆粕方面,一方面美豆、巴 西贴水稳中偏强,带来成本端支撑;另一方面,中美贸易事件不确定性犹动:美国贸易代表格里尔表示, 将继续推进对中国履行中美第一阶段经贸协议情况 301 调查。并可能采取关税措施。豆一方面，东北产区 现货价格补涨，购销较少。期价仍偏强,受到整体豆类市场情绪影响、且无利空因素。从周Ｋ线角度。2 月 27 日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨幅 1.18% ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】美国总统特朗普的关税"大棒"，遭美最高法一纸裁决解除武装。尽管特朗普仍指 望通过其他手段维持关税，但美国业界已开始担心，这位美国总统失去了施压中国的重要筹码。 路透社2月20日援引分析人士的话称，在美国最高法院裁定特朗普推行的大规模关税政策越权违法后， 中国不太可能像特朗普数周来一直宣扬的那样继续大规模采购美国大豆。 特朗普2月4日在"真相社交"平台称中国将额外采购800万吨美国大豆后，美豆自该日起上涨8.49%，但20 日早盘交投最活跃的大豆期货小幅下跌。 "特朗普一直在向中国施压，可现在我们要问了，这（项裁决）会不会让中国更不愿接收这批大豆？"美 国期货咨询机构Lakefront Futures高级对冲顾问达林·费斯勒表示，"美国大豆仍比巴西贵。如果没有关税 逼迫，他们凭什么还要买美国大豆？" 作为全球最大大豆进口国，中国年进口量超1亿吨，约占全球大豆贸易总量的60%，长期以来都是美国 豆农的最大买家。 美国威斯康星州沃尔沃斯，田间正在收割的大豆 IC Photo 数据显示，过去三个月，中国已足额兑现了1200万吨美国大豆的采购承诺。彭博社上月称，在兑现对美 大豆首轮采购承诺后，中国 ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】美国总统特朗普的关税"大棒"，遭美最高法一纸裁决解除武装。尽管特朗普仍指 望通过其他手段维持关税，但美国业界已开始担心，这位美国总统失去了施压中国的重要筹码。 路透社2月20日援引分析人士的话称，在美国最高法院裁定特朗普推行的大规模关税政策越权违法后， 中国不太可能像特朗普数周来一直宣扬的那样继续大规模采购美国大豆。 特朗普2月4日在"真相社交"平台称中国将额外采购800万吨美国大豆后，美豆自该日起上涨8.49%，但20 日早盘交投最活跃的大豆期货小幅下跌。 "特朗普一直在向中国施压，可现在我们要问了，这（项裁决）会不会让中国更不愿接收这批大豆？"美 国期货咨询机构Lakefront Futures高级对冲顾问达林·费斯勒表示，"美国大豆仍比巴西贵。如果没有关税 逼迫，他们凭什么还要买美国大豆？" 作为全球最大大豆进口国，中国年进口量超1亿吨，约占全球大豆贸易总量的60%，长期以来都是美国 豆农的最大买家。 可如今失去关税这一"大棒"后，美国大豆将难以与竞争对手巴西抗衡。巴西当前正迎来大规模丰收，其 大豆价格远低于美国。 此前中美关系遇冷，中方一度暂停采购美国大豆，而随着中美贸易关系缓和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the USDA's February report, the market has entered a new stage of actively tracking and gaming future variables such as trade flows, industrial policies, and planting intentions. The price of US soybeans will fluctuate between the weak reality of new supply surplus and potential demand expectations until a new and solid fundamental main line is confirmed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. US Soybean Data Remains Unchanged - In the February supply - demand report, the USDA made no adjustments to all key estimates of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season. The production, yield, sown and harvested areas, and ending stocks (350 million bushels) of US soybeans remained the same as in the January estimate, with ending stocks at a six - year high. The export estimate was still 1.575 billion bushels, in line with the USDA's cautious style and market expectations [8]. - Although the US soybean crushing demand is strong and the current crushing progress is slightly higher than the annual target, the USDA's estimate remains unchanged to reserve adjustment space for upcoming major policies. The market is highly concerned about the renewable fuel obligation and 45Z tax incentive policies to be announced by the US EPA in March, which may boost soybean - based biodiesel demand and US soybean crushing volume [8]. - The high ending stocks of US soybeans suppress the rebound of futures prices. There are still differences in the market's view of US soybean stocks. Some institutions believe that if US soybean exports increase slightly in the future, the stocks may fall to 275 million - 320 million bushels. The future adjustment of US soybean stocks depends on the changes in exports and crushing levels [9]. 3.2. Record - High Production of South American Soybeans Confirmed - In the February report, the USDA raised the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 2 million tons to a record 180 million tons, and the global soybean ending stocks by 1.1 million tons to 125.51 million tons, indicating a high - supply era dominated by South America [10]. - The high - supply situation in South America has led to a weakening of the basis for farmers' sales. Brazilian farmers are in a dilemma of increasing production but not necessarily increasing income. Chinese buyers, as the world's largest importers, prefer Brazilian new soybeans with better cost - performance, squeezing the traditional sales window of US soybeans [10][11]. - The increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA report coincides with the quality problem of soaring soybean mold rate due to continuous heavy rain in the main producing areas, leading to complex market games [11]. 3.3. Shift in Market Trading Drivers - The USDA's decision to keep all core data at January levels in the February report sets a supply - demand balance benchmark for the market. Market pricing logic has shifted from static data to continuous verification and intense gaming of a series of dynamic and undetermined external key variables [12]. - Market trading is divided into three progressive time dimensions and verification nodes. In the short - term, the core of the market depends on whether China's increased purchases of US soybeans can translate into continuous trade flows. In the medium - term, the driving force will shift to the renewable fuel obligation and 45Z tax incentive policies of the US EPA, and the USDA's planting intention report at the end of March. The market generally expects the US soybean planting area to expand significantly in 2026/2027, putting potential pressure on far - month contracts [13]. - After the release of the USDA report, the market is in a tug - of - war between weak reality and strong expectations. The price trend of US soybeans will depend on which key narrative line can make a breakthrough and be confirmed by official data, and the high production of Brazilian soybeans will suppress global soybean prices throughout the game [14]. 3.4. Uncertainties in US Soybean Exports - The USDA maintained the 2025/2026 US soybean export estimate at 1.575 billion bushels in the February report, which has remained unchanged for two consecutive months. Driven by optimistic export expectations to China, the US soybean futures price was strong recently, but the actual export sales progress is lagging [15]. - As of January 29, 2026, the total sales of US soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were only 9.887 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%. The shipping progress was also slow, with the loaded volume to China accounting for only 51.3% of the USDA's annual export forecast, far lower than the five - year average of 66.9% [16]. - The main challenge for US soybean exports is the direct competition from South America. The price of US soybeans is significantly higher than that of Brazilian soybeans. However, if the quality problems of Brazilian soybeans due to heavy rain seriously affect its export volume, it may prompt buyers to turn to US soybeans. Overall, it is difficult for US soybean exports in the 2025/2026 season to achieve a significant increase beyond expectations [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by the biodiesel policy and improved export prospects due to macro - changes. However, the US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly depends on the Argentine weather and the US monthly supply - demand report [5][13]. - The downward pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved subsequent supply and high previous crushing profits. The soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decline, but the current price has already reflected the subsequent de - stocking, so the impact is relatively limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal also showed a downward trend this week, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal. As the subsequent soybean meal spot may gradually tighten, the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively good. The supply of rapeseed meal has gradually improved recently [6][22]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures rose significantly this week, mainly influenced by the biodiesel policy and macro - changes. The fundamentals of the US soybean market remained stable, with a decrease in exports and stable crushing. The Brazilian price support still exists, and the Argentine new - crop supply decreased due to weather. The main influencing factor for the US soybean market may be the Argentine weather, and the export increment space is limited [5]. - The downward pressure on domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved supply and high previous crushing profits. The subsequent soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, and the soybean meal inventory may decline. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large. The domestic rapeseed meal also declined, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal, and the subsequent supply has improved [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy (views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Macro Impact Increases, US Soybeans Rise Significantly - The US soybean futures rose significantly this week, driven by macro and biodiesel factors. The US Treasury's tax guidance on biodiesel and improved export prospects due to macro - changes led to the upward movement. The US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly comes from the limited short - term export growth and the upcoming US monthly supply - demand report [13]. 2. Brazilian Quotes Remain Firm, Argentine Weather Still Causes Disturbance - Brazilian quotes decreased this week but still remained at a high level. The old - crop pressure in Brazil is relatively limited, while the new - crop market pressure is obvious. The Brazilian export shipment speed has accelerated. The main influencing factor in the Argentine market is the weather, and the yield is subject to uncertainty [16]. 3. Futures Pressure Increases, Trading Remains Strong - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a downward trend this week due to the repair of crushing profits and reduced concerns about soybean supply shortages. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, especially the forward basis trading. The market is expected to see a slight de - stocking of soybean meal this week. The futures market is complex, and it is likely to show a more volatile trend [19]. 4. Supply Pressure Increases, Rapeseed Meal Declines Overall - The domestic rapeseed meal futures also declined this week, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread continued to widen. The decline was affected by both soybean meal and improved subsequent supply. The demand for rapeseed meal is average, and the supply has improved recently. The international rapeseed market provides some support to the price of rapeseed meal, but the overall supply is relatively loose [22] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as the Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing data [26][29]. Foreign Premium - The data presents the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the CNF price of rapeseed [32]. Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - The data includes the US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [37][44]. Supply - The data shows the soybean and rapeseed import volumes and weekly crushing volumes [50]. Demand Side - The data presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volumes [53]. Inventory - The data shows the soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report assesses the growth, environmental indicators, and yield expectations of key agricultural products in the Southern Hemisphere, including Brazilian soybeans, corn, Argentine soybeans, and Southeast Asian palm oil, using satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and deep - learning models [1] - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a record - high yield, with an increased yield per unit area and total output. Brazilian corn's first - season yield accounts for 27%, and the second - season situation needs attention. Argentine soybeans' growth was not significantly affected by less precipitation in January, and the overall yield remains stable [2] - The growth of Southeast Asian palm oil shows regional differentiation. The growth of Brazilian soybeans and corn is generally good, and the overall development of Argentine soybeans is normal. With the decline of La Niña, the drought in southern Brazil and northern Argentina may be alleviated, but there may still be risks in the southern part of Buenos Aires, Argentina [2] Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Products Yield Estimation Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method - The monitored varieties are Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian corn, and Southeast Asian palm. The monitoring window is January, and the time period covers 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025 [6] - The monitoring uses data from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and on - the - spot observations, including 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed, which uses multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote - sensing data, combined with meteorological information and historical yield data, and is trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [7][12] Yield Estimation Results - Brazilian soybean yield per unit area is expected to reach 3.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is expected to exceed 1.8 billion tons, hitting a record high [2][13] - Brazilian first - season corn maintains a high yield per unit area, but the total yield accounts for only 27%, and the second - season situation needs to be monitored [2][13] - Argentine soybeans had less precipitation in January, but the growth was not significantly affected, and the overall yield is similar to the previous forecast [2][13] Global Key Agricultural Products Growth Monitoring Malay and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil producing areas showed regional differentiation. The Malay Peninsula had strong growth, while Sumatra was under pressure [2][20] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, but the precipitation was generally low, and the soil moisture decreased, which may affect the subsequent growth [2][22] Brazilian Soybean Producing Areas - In January 2026, the growth indicators of Brazilian soybean producing areas were better than the average of the previous 20 years, and the overall growth was good [31] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the low temperature in the southern producing areas decreased slightly, which was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture fluctuated synchronously with the precipitation, but it was still within the suitable range [33][39] Brazilian Corn Producing Areas - In January, the growth indicators of Brazilian first - season corn in most producing areas increased compared with the average of the previous 20 years. Only Piauí had weak growth, and Minas Gerais had a slight decline in LAI [40] - The temperature in each producing area was suitable, and the temperature in the southern producing areas generally decreased, which was suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in crops. Except for Minas Gerais, the precipitation in other producing areas decreased, and the soil moisture change was highly synchronized with the precipitation trend [44][46] Argentine Soybean Producing Areas - In January, the core indicators of Argentine soybean producing areas recovered to varying degrees compared with the weak state in the dry season of 2025, with the most significant recovery in Santiago del Estero [51] - The temperature in each producing area was within the suitable range, and the temperature was lower than that in 2025, which was more suitable for the accumulation of dry matter in soybeans. The precipitation in most producing areas was lower than the average, but it was higher than that in the dry season of 2025, and the drought situation was significantly alleviated [52][54] South American Weather Conditions South American Historical Weather Conditions - Since the end of October 2025, the Nino3.4 area has been in the La Niña mode, which has caused some precipitation shortages in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The precipitation - shortage areas were concentrated in northern Argentina in January and southern Brazil in early February [62] South American Future Weather Trends - In the short term, there will be multiple precipitation processes in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next 14 days, which will greatly relieve the current drought. However, the southern part of Buenos Aires in Argentina may continue to be dry [65] - In the long term, the precipitation in South America is still differentiated. The central - northern part of Brazil is persistently dry, which is conducive to harvesting, while the central - northern part of Argentina and the southern part of Brazil will have abundant precipitation, and the crops have a large recovery space [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].

Core Viewpoint - The USDA is set to release the February supply and demand report, which is expected to primarily adjust the demand side for South American soybean production, while U.S. soybean supply data is likely to remain unchanged [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Production - The focus of the upcoming report will be on adjustments to South American soybean production, particularly due to weather conditions affecting Brazil and Argentina [2] - Brazil has experienced excessive rainfall and high temperatures in the south, while Argentina's central region faces drought, impacting soybean growth [4] - As of January 24, Brazil's soybean harvest progress for the 2025/2026 season was at 6.6%, higher than the previous week and last year, but slightly below the five-year average [2] - Multiple consulting firms have raised their estimates for Brazil's soybean production to an average of 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet - The January report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean exports by 1.46 million tons to 42.86 million tons, but no further adjustments are expected in the February report [3] - The U.S. soybean balance sheet is anticipated to show minimal changes in the upcoming report, as the market awaits further sales data [3] Group 3: Argentina's Weather Issues - Argentina's central soybean-producing region has faced uneven rainfall and drought since December 2025, with 20% of soybean fields experiencing drought conditions [4] - Current estimates for Argentina's soybean production have been lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons, raising concerns about potential further reductions [4] - Argentina's soybean production accounts for about 10% of global output, and its export volumes are significantly lower than those of the U.S. and Brazil [4] Group 4: Market Expectations and Forecasts - Analysts expect Brazil's soybean production to exceed 180 million tons, which may limit price increases [8] - The USDA's February report is projected to show global soybean ending stocks at 125.3 million tons, with a range between 121.8 million and 127 million tons [11] - The U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are estimated at 347 million bushels, with a range between 265 million and 375 million bushels [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. - The introduction of the US 45Z clean fuel production tax credit mechanism is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. It is a "differentiated reshaping" rather than an overall benefit. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Trump posted on "Truth Social" that China will increase this year's soybean procurement to 20 million tons and has promised to purchase 25 million tons next year. As of the end of January, China has bought about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the agreement made at the end of October last year [2]. - Affected by this news, US soybeans rose significantly to around 1100 cents, but the Brazilian soybean premium dropped by 15 - 25 cents, restricting the increase of imported soybeans [2]. - Institutions have significantly raised the production estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still some uncertainties in local weather, the market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Edible Oils - The US Treasury Department released the proposed 45Z rules on Tuesday, with the official release date of the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit rules set for February 4. The rules implement changes in "A Grand and Beautiful Act", including extending the tax credit until 2029, canceling the special credit rate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), canceling the indirect land - use change penalty, and restricting eligibility to raw materials sourced from the US, Canada, and New Mexico [2]. - The 45Z policy is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. Low - carbon, large - scale, and traceable soybean biodiesel still has development space, while the traditional high - CI model will face greater profit pressure [3]. - Although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports make it difficult for the benefits to spread to the domestic market. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [3].