Group 1: Core Insights - The conference focused on the theme of "RMB exchange rate fluctuations and Federal Reserve policy expectations" [1] - The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD by 2025 due to various external and internal factors, including a decline in the USD index by 9.5% in the first nine months of the year [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift towards interest rate cuts and the potential impact on the USD's credibility are significant for the RMB's future [2] Group 2: External Factors - The decline in the USD's credibility is attributed to the failure of the "American exceptionalism" narrative and the adverse effects of Trump's trade policies [2] - The improvement in China's economy, including the alleviation of real estate and local debt issues, is expected to support the RMB [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions and potential tariff reductions are also seen as supportive factors for the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2023, which is expected to continue influencing global liquidity and capital flows [3] - The Fed's monetary policy is primarily driven by domestic inflation and employment levels, which could lead to further depreciation of the USD [3] - The anticipated slowdown in US capital inflows may weaken international confidence in USD assets, impacting the RMB exchange rate [3] Group 4: International Monetary System Challenges - The international monetary system faces challenges from geopolitical tensions, particularly highlighted by the SWIFT system's politicization during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - The need for a more stable and efficient international monetary system is emphasized, with suggestions for managed floating exchange rates and reduced reliance on a single sovereign currency [4] - China's role in promoting RMB internationalization and participating in global financial initiatives is highlighted as crucial for future reforms [4]