（来源：经济日报） 2025年4月21日，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、国家外汇管理局和上海市人民政府联合印发 了《上海国际金融中心进一步提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》，从提高跨境结算效率、优化汇率避 险服务、强化融资服务、加强保险保障、完善综合金融服务五方面提出18条重点举措，进一步提升上海 跨境金融服务便利化程度。2025年9月24日，数字人民币国际运营中心业务平台推介会在上海举行，向 各相关机构集中宣传介绍数字人民币跨境数字支付平台、数字人民币区块链服务平台及数字资产平台 （以下简称"业务平台"）功能，标志着数字人民币国际运营中心正式运营。 "十四五"时期，中国人民银行通过二十国集团（G20）、国际货币基金组织（IMF）、国际清算银行 （BIS）、多边开发银行等全球治理平台机制以及东盟与中日韩（10＋3）等区域机制，推动构建更加 公正合理的全球金融治理格局，推进全球宏观经济政策协调、全球和区域金融安全网建设。 "2008年国际金融危机后，国际社会基于对危机教训的反思，对国际货币体系改革的讨论越来越多，主 要有两个方向。一是弱化对单一主权货币的过度依赖，国际货币体系向多极化发展。二是逐步扩大国际 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese yuan has become a significant force in the reform of the international monetary system, ranking as the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally by 2024, while the decline of the US dollar's credit is leading to oligopolistic competition in currencies [1] - The internationalization of the yuan is entering a new strategic opportunity period, influenced by the "America First" policies of the Trump administration, which have disrupted the post-World War II international political and economic order [1][12] - The yuan's internationalization is not aimed at replacing the dollar but rather at promoting a more balanced global monetary and financial system [5] Group 1: Theoretical Foundations and Research Progress - Since the international financial crisis, research on the internationalization of the yuan has rapidly accumulated, forming a mature research framework [2] - The three basic functions of international currency—unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value—are supported by national credit [3] - Four key factors influence the process of currency internationalization: large economic scale, deep financial markets, currency stability, and network externalities [4] Group 2: Progress and Benefits of Yuan Internationalization - The yuan has made significant progress since the initiation of cross-border trade settlement in 2009, becoming the fifth-largest currency in global foreign exchange trading by 2022 and the second-largest trade financing currency by 2024 [7] - The internationalization of the yuan has improved trade settlement efficiency and risk management capabilities, contributing to financial reforms [7][9] - By 2024, the yuan accounted for approximately 30% of China's goods trade settlement and over 50% of cross-border payments [8] Group 3: Challenges and Constraints - The internationalization of the yuan faces challenges, including an imbalance in the three functions of international currency, particularly in its role as a reserve currency [19] - The yuan's share in global official foreign exchange reserves is only 2.1%, significantly lower than the dollar and euro [21] - Structural barriers, such as the incomplete convertibility of capital accounts and the need for deeper financial market development, hinder the yuan's internationalization [22] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To promote the internationalization of the yuan, it is essential to increase the supply of high-quality safe assets and improve the capital market's investment and financing system [25] - Enhancing the openness of the futures market and improving financial infrastructure are critical steps [26] - Strengthening regulatory capabilities in an open capital market environment is necessary to manage risks effectively [27]

Core Insights - The core theme of the speeches at the 2025 Financial Street Forum is the commitment to enhancing the openness of the financial sector, reflecting on past achievements while promising future actions [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Sector Openness - The financial sector's openness is a crucial part of China's reform and opening-up strategy, with significant progress made during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. - The international status of the Renminbi (RMB) has steadily increased, becoming the largest currency for China's foreign exchange settlements, the second-largest for trade financing, and the third-largest for payments globally [1][2]. - The RMB's weight in the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket ranks third, indicating its growing influence in the international monetary system [1]. Group 2: International Monetary System Reform - The rise of the RMB is a key feature of the international monetary system's transformation over the past two decades, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - Discussions on reforming the international monetary system have focused on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and expanding the use of SDRs, promoting a more diversified and balanced global financial system [2]. Group 3: Institutional Opening and Risk Management - Efforts are underway to align domestic financial market rules with international standards, enhancing the investment environment for foreign institutions [3]. - The establishment of a unified bond market framework aims to facilitate the opening of both interbank and exchange bond markets, with a focus on making RMB bonds widely recognized as eligible collateral in global markets [3]. - A balanced approach to risk management and high-level financial openness is emphasized, with ongoing improvements in financial market infrastructure and legal systems to ensure stability [3]. Group 4: Foreign Investment in China's Bond Market - As of August this year, nearly 1,170 foreign investors from around 80 countries and regions have entered China's bond market, holding approximately 3.9 trillion yuan [4]. - Over 80 of the top 100 global asset management firms have already participated in the Chinese bond market, showcasing the country's commitment to reform and openness [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is rapidly changing the global reserve asset landscape, with its proportion in central bank reserves increasing significantly while the dollar's share is declining, indicating a trend towards diversification of global reserve assets [2][4]. Summary by Sections Gold as a New "Risk-Free Asset" - Deutsche Bank reports that the proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has risen from 24% at the end of June to 30% currently, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40% [2]. - If gold prices reach $5,790 per ounce, its share would equal that of the dollar, highlighting gold's increasing attractiveness as a reserve asset [2]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that the percentage of central banks planning to increase gold reserves has risen from 29% to 43% [2][3]. Global Central Banks Turning to Gold - The shift towards gold is a key driver of the current gold bull market, with central banks showing increased willingness to add gold to their reserves [2]. - Concerns over the sustainability of the dollar as a store of wealth and the need for a diversified reserve asset mix are driving this trend [4][5]. Diversification of Global Reserve Assets - The dual drivers of risk aversion and "de-dollarization" are pushing central banks to seek a diversified reserve asset portfolio [4]. - The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 57.79% to 56.32%, marking a 30-year low [5]. Long-term Outlook for the Dollar - The dollar index has fallen over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest drop since 1973, raising concerns about its long-term prospects [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing decline in dollar credibility and the rise of alternative currencies may lead to a decrease in dollar reserves held by non-U.S. economies [7]. Implications of De-dollarization - The trend of "de-dollarization" is linked to a reduction in the use of the dollar in international trade and finance, with a growing number of contracts being settled in local currencies [6][7]. - Despite these changes, some experts caution against overestimating the impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency, as it still holds unique advantages in global trade and finance [7].

Core Insights - The financial sector's opening is a crucial part of China's reform and opening-up strategy, with accelerated steps during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing the international competitiveness and influence of the financial industry [1] Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) actively participates in global financial governance through platforms like G20, IMF, and regional mechanisms such as ASEAN+3, aiming to create a fairer global financial governance structure [1][2] - Continuous cooperation with the IMF includes pushing for quota reforms and establishing an IMF Shanghai Center [2] - The PBOC has proposed principles for cross-border digital currency infrastructure, emphasizing "no loss, compliance, and interoperability" [2] Group 2: International Monetary System Reform - Post-2008 financial crisis, discussions on reforming the international monetary system have intensified, focusing on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and promoting a multipolar currency system [2][3] - The RMB's international status has steadily improved, contributing to a more balanced and equitable international monetary system [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Financial Cooperation - The PBOC has implemented measures to deepen financial cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong, enhancing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [3][4] - Hong Kong serves as the largest offshore RMB business hub, with policies to support the development of the offshore RMB market and facilitate RMB bond issuance [4] - The "Bond Connect" program has been established to facilitate cross-border investment in bond markets, with significant growth in transaction volumes [5] Group 4: Payment Systems and Cross-Border Transactions - The "Cross-Border Payment Link" launched in June 2025 enhances real-time small cross-border remittances between the mainland and Hong Kong, significantly improving remittance efficiency [6] - As of July 2025, over 700,000 transactions have been processed through this system, involving a total amount exceeding 4 billion RMB [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The conference focused on the theme of "RMB exchange rate fluctuations and Federal Reserve policy expectations" [1] - The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD by 2025 due to various external and internal factors, including a decline in the USD index by 9.5% in the first nine months of the year [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift towards interest rate cuts and the potential impact on the USD's credibility are significant for the RMB's future [2] Group 2: External Factors - The decline in the USD's credibility is attributed to the failure of the "American exceptionalism" narrative and the adverse effects of Trump's trade policies [2] - The improvement in China's economy, including the alleviation of real estate and local debt issues, is expected to support the RMB [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions and potential tariff reductions are also seen as supportive factors for the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2023, which is expected to continue influencing global liquidity and capital flows [3] - The Fed's monetary policy is primarily driven by domestic inflation and employment levels, which could lead to further depreciation of the USD [3] - The anticipated slowdown in US capital inflows may weaken international confidence in USD assets, impacting the RMB exchange rate [3] Group 4: International Monetary System Challenges - The international monetary system faces challenges from geopolitical tensions, particularly highlighted by the SWIFT system's politicization during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - The need for a more stable and efficient international monetary system is emphasized, with suggestions for managed floating exchange rates and reduced reliance on a single sovereign currency [4] - China's role in promoting RMB internationalization and participating in global financial initiatives is highlighted as crucial for future reforms [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the **U.S. Dollar's dominance** in the international monetary system and its implications for global finance and investment. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Treasury Bonds as Safe Assets**: U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as safe assets due to their value retention, liquidity, and appreciation during crises, reinforcing the dollar's position in the international monetary system [2][4][5] 2. **Dollar Hegemony**: The U.S. dollar's hegemony allows the U.S. to issue debt at lower costs, benefiting from a unique financing privilege that is not easily replicated by other nations [3][10] 3. **Structural Challenges**: The U.S. faces structural challenges in controlling debt, with rigid expenditures exceeding fiscal revenues and a bipartisan tendency to expand deficits [14] 4. **Impact of Dollar Strength**: The dollar's strength can lead to decreased export competitiveness and depreciation of overseas assets, presenting both advantages and disadvantages for the U.S. economy [16] 5. **Flight to Safety Phenomenon**: During financial crises, there is a tendency for investors to flock to safe assets like U.S. dollars and Treasury bonds, which can lower bond yields and provide the U.S. with additional fiscal stimulus [15] 6. **Potential for RMB as a Safe Asset**: The Chinese yuan (RMB) has potential to become a new safe asset, but it requires stable inflation, market liquidity, and a floating exchange rate mechanism [29][31] 7. **Dollar's International Reserve Currency Status**: The U.S. has paid a price for the dollar's status as an international reserve currency, with the currency often being overvalued during crises [18] 8. **Concerns Over Dollar Hegemony Erosion**: Discussions about the decline of dollar hegemony are ongoing, but historical patterns show that crises often reinforce the dollar's dominance [20][22] 9. **Investment Returns**: The U.S. has maintained positive net overseas investment returns, despite being in a current account deficit, primarily due to low-cost financing [10][24] 10. **Market Sentiment on U.S. Debt**: There are signs that the consensus on the safety of U.S. debt is weakening, with rising financing costs and reduced demand from traditional buyers [25][26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Comparison with Japan**: Japan's high debt levels are considered sustainable due to strong domestic ownership of its bonds and responsible fiscal policies, contrasting with the U.S.'s challenges in managing debt [13][14] 2. **Future of the International Monetary System**: The international monetary system is undergoing fragmentation and diversification, with a shift towards a multi-currency structure that includes the dollar, euro, and yuan [28][30] 3. **Implications of Dollar Appreciation**: Dollar appreciation can lower financing costs and enhance purchasing power for U.S. consumers, benefiting the economy [19] 4. **Consequences of Eroding Trust in U.S. Debt**: A complete loss of faith in the safety of U.S. debt could lead to significant economic consequences, including high inflation and elevated long-term interest rates [26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the complexities surrounding the U.S. dollar's role in the global economy and the potential rise of alternative currencies.

Core Insights - The "2025 International Currency Forum" held by Renmin University of China and Nankai University focused on the complexities and impacts of geopolitical economic risks in the current global landscape [1][3] - The forum emphasized the need for effective identification, assessment, and response to geopolitical economic risks to ensure national economic security and support high-quality development in China [3] Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Risks - Geopolitical economic risks are characterized by their complexity, interconnectivity, and suddenness, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, unilateralism, and protectionism [3] - The core features of geopolitical economic risks involve the use of economic means with diverse objectives, which can be either economic or political [6] - The long-term structural contradictions of geopolitical economic risks necessitate international cooperation and reform of the international monetary system to enhance resilience and inclusivity [7] Group 2: Measurement and Analysis - A team from Nankai University developed a Geopolitical Economic Risk Index based on national newspaper data from 1979 to June 2025, showing a significant increase in risk post-2018 due to events like the US-China trade friction [9][10] - The index has been validated against existing indices, demonstrating its comprehensive nature and relevance in assessing the impact of geopolitical economic risks on macroeconomic indicators [9][10] Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts - Geopolitical economic risks negatively affect China's macroeconomy, with significant adverse spillover effects on industrial output, consumer confidence, and inflation [12][13] - The research indicates that a one standard deviation increase in geopolitical economic risk leads to a contraction in industrial output and a decline in consumer confidence, highlighting the demand shock nature of these risks [12][13] Group 4: International Trade and Investment - Geopolitical economic risks are reshaping global trade and investment systems, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and prompting companies to diversify production bases and export markets [18][19] - The rise in trade barriers has reached historical peaks, significantly altering international trade dynamics, particularly in US-China trade relations [18][19] Group 5: Financial Systems and Currency Dynamics - The forum discussed the implications of financial sanctions and geopolitical risks on global payment systems, emphasizing the need for countries to seek alternatives to the SWIFT system [22][23] - The evolution of international reserve currency dynamics is influenced by geopolitical economic risks, with a notable trend towards diversification away from the US dollar [25][26] Group 6: Renminbi Internationalization - The rise in geopolitical economic risks has positively influenced the internationalization of the Renminbi, particularly in trade and investment, while maintaining its role as a supplementary option rather than a direct replacement for traditional currencies [28][29] - The forum highlighted the importance of stabilizing the Renminbi's value and enhancing market confidence to support its internationalization efforts [29]

Group 1 - The forum highlighted the importance of the global financial system in mitigating geopolitical risks and ensuring the stability of international trade and supply chains [4] - The discussions emphasized the need for China to enhance its participation in global economic governance and strengthen international cooperation to counter systemic risks [4] - The forum presented various expert analyses on the definition and dimensions of geopolitical economic risks, noting the lack of a unified academic definition [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis revealed that geopolitical economic risks have a multifaceted impact on macroeconomics and financial markets, with positive effects on CPI and negative impacts on PPI, stock markets, exports, and FDI [10] - Research indicated that geopolitical economic risks lead to significant adverse spillover effects on China's financial markets and real economy, with key transmission channels identified as exchange rates, real estate, and credit markets [13][19] - The findings suggested that a moderately accommodative monetary policy could mitigate the negative impacts of geopolitical economic risks, while stabilizing the real estate and bond markets could prevent a ratchet effect [13] Group 3 - The forum discussed the transformation of the global trade and investment system due to geopolitical economic risks, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and a shift in trade structures [18] - Empirical studies showed that trade barriers have reached peak levels since World War II, with significant adjustments in international trade patterns, particularly in U.S.-China trade [18][19] - The analysis pointed out that geopolitical risks have accelerated the restructuring of supply chains towards "nearshoring, friend-shoring, and diversification," emphasizing the need for security in supply chain management [19] Group 4 - The discussions included the impact of financial sanctions and geopolitical economic risks on the global payment system, highlighting the inefficiencies and risks associated with the SWIFT system [22] - The analysis indicated that the rise of geopolitical risks has led to a diversification of reserve currencies, with emerging currencies like the RMB gaining traction, although the USD remains a dominant safe haven [25][29] - The forum underscored the necessity for structural reforms and infrastructure optimization to enhance the RMB's international competitiveness and safe-haven attributes [30]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" held in Beijing focused on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform," discussing the implications of geoeconomic risks on the international monetary system and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2]. Group 1: Geoeconomic Risks - The report titled "Deepening Geoeconomic Risks" analyzes the sources and effects of geoeconomic risks, linking them to the internationalization of the Renminbi [2]. - It identifies that current geoeconomic risks stem from internal contradictions within the global economic and financial landscape, which are expected to deepen [2]. - The negative spillover effects of these risks have impacted China's real economy, financial markets, international trade, investment systems, global supply chains, and international financial markets [2]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The report suggests that promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and driving reforms in the international monetary system are crucial for mitigating geoeconomic risks [2]. - Data indicates that as the geoeconomic risk index rises, the Renminbi internationalization index also increases, alongside diversification in the global payment system and official reserve currencies [2]. Group 3: Forum Structure and Participation - The forum featured four thematic discussions, including "Research Results on Geoeconomic Risks" and "Challenges of Digital Currency to the Global Monetary and Financial System" [3]. - The International Monetary Forum, initiated by Renmin University, has been held annually since 2012, attracting renowned experts and scholars from various regions to discuss significant theoretical and practical issues in international finance [3].