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中航重机(600765):短期业绩承压,长期拓展大军工市场发展动力强劲
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-01 01:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.36 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, and a net profit of 640 million, down 52.2% year-on-year, primarily due to price adjustments by key model customers [1]. - The company is focusing on high-value areas in aviation, with commercial aviation revenue exceeding 1 billion, a 71% increase year-on-year, and a growing market share in key aviation models [2]. - The company is actively expanding into new fields such as civil aviation, commercial engines, aerospace, and deep-sea markets, with a long-term goal of achieving stable growth [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the comprehensive gross margin was 23.7%, down 7.59 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.4%, down 5.84 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is 11.51 billion, representing an 11% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach 1.26 billion, a 97.57% increase [5][6]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative 80 million in 2024, a significant decline from 700 million in the previous year, primarily due to difficulties in sales collections [3]. Business Segmentation - The forging and casting business generated 8.27 billion in revenue, down 11.5% year-on-year, while the hydraulic and environmental control business achieved 1.84 billion, down 7.3% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s focus on research and development is evident, with a R&D expense ratio of 6.5%, supporting technological innovation and industry upgrades [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue of 11.5 billion in 2025, with a profit target of 1.3 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][5]. - The company is building a comprehensive material research and regeneration system, which is expected to enhance long-term profitability by potentially reducing material costs [4].