天然橡胶供需平衡

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天然橡胶周报受宏观及供应端影响震荡偏强,高位谨慎追涨-20250727
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 13:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, commodities generally rose. Due to the obstruction of rubber raw material supply and the overall undervaluation of the market, rubber prices followed the upward trend. However, the sustainability of this upward movement needs further attention, and it is advisable to be cautious when chasing high prices. The firm prices of upstream raw materials provide some support to the cost side, but this support may gradually weaken as the supply of raw materials increases. On the demand side, tire factories' short - term production operations may be maintained due to the recovery of profits, but there is still an expectation of a future decline. Overall, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the inventory clearance speed from July to August, policy impacts, raw material supply, and inventory changes. The RU09 contract is currently valued neutrally, with an upward - shifted oscillation range. The NR09 contract also shows similar characteristics. In terms of trading strategies, when the price of RU - NR spreads is concerned, it is expected to strengthen in the short term but with limited space, and attention should be paid to future warehouse receipts and inventory conditions. For options, a bear spread strategy can be considered to reduce the cost of premiums, but both the returns and risks are limited [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Global Production**: In May 2025, Thailand's production was 272,200 tons, with a significant increase compared to the previous period. Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, with a slight increase. Vietnam's production was 85,500 tons, and China's production was 97,000 tons, showing a significant increase of 11.53% year - on - year. Malaysia's production was 20,000 tons. Overall, the global natural rubber production is in line with expectations, and the weather in the producing areas is better than last year, with normal tapping operations. Attention should be paid to weather conditions and raw material output [5]. - **Main - producing Countries' Exports**: From January to June 2025, the exports of Thailand, Indonesia, and Cote d'Ivoire increased significantly, mainly due to the increased import enthusiasm in China. Vietnam's exports decreased month - on - month in May, which is related to seasonal factors and increased domestic demand. Malaysia's exports decreased, mainly due to a decline in imported raw materials [5]. - **Domestic Production and Imports**: The production of whole - milk rubber in 2025 is expected to increase significantly, but recent rainfall has affected the output, and the increase may fall short of expectations. In June 2025, the total imports of natural rubber were 463,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease. The imports of different rubber types showed different trends, such as an increase in the year - on - year imports of smoked sheets due to the duty - free policy in Myanmar, and an unexpected increase in the imports of standard rubber [6]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is higher than the same period last year. Currently, there is a slight reduction in inventory, mainly in the light - colored rubber, while the dark - colored rubber has started to show inventory changes. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a rapid inventory clearance from late July to August [6]. - **Demand**: In the tire industry, the production of whole - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends in June 2025. The sales of automobiles and commercial vehicles decreased month - on - month, which is related to seasonal factors and the cancellation of some subsidies in the second half of the year. The logistics index showed a stable or increasing trend month - on - month [7]. - **Valuation and Profits**: The prices of raw materials such as Yunnan and Hainan glue are expected to remain flat or decline. The processing profits of some rubber types in China and Thailand show different trends, such as the strengthening of the processing profits of Yunnan and Hainan, and the flat or declining profits of Thai latex [7]. 3.2 Balance Sheet Analysis - **Domestic Natural Rubber Total Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply, demand, and inventory of domestic natural rubber showed different trends. In 2025, the cumulative supply increased year - on - year, and the inventory and consumption ratios also changed. Attention should be paid to the import volume from July, which is expected to decline, and the inventory changes from July to August [13]. - **Domestic Light - colored Rubber Balance Sheet**: Light - colored rubber has been continuously reducing inventory. Attention should be paid to the import of 3L rubber this year, the implementation of the purchase and storage policy, the impact of latex, and the supply of domestic raw materials. The cost side has obvious support [15]. - **Dark - colored Rubber Balance Sheet**: From December 2024 to April 2025, there was obvious inventory accumulation, but the structural differences were large. From May to June, inventory clearance started but was not continuous. In July, inventory continued to accumulate, especially for mixed rubber, which exceeded market expectations. It is expected that the arrivals after July will decrease year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the demand in July and the tariff policy in August [16]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **China's Raw Material Prices and Spreads**: The report provides seasonal charts of raw material prices and spreads in China, including the price differences between Yunnan glue and rubber blocks, and the price differences between Hainan whole - milk and latex raw materials, which can help analyze the cost structure [20][23]. - **China's Rubber Processing Profits**: Seasonal charts of processing profits for different rubber types in China are presented, such as the delivery profits of Yunnan whole - milk RU01 contracts and Hainan 01 contracts, which can help understand the profit situation of the rubber processing industry [26]. - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Spreads**: Seasonal charts of Thailand's raw material prices and spreads are provided, including the price differences between Thai latex and cup rubber, and the prices of raw materials such as Thai raw rubber sheets, which can help analyze the cost situation in Thailand [29]. - **Thailand's Raw Material Spreads and Rubber Processing Profits**: Seasonal charts of Thailand's raw material spreads and rubber processing profits are presented, such as the delivery profits of Indian - standard NR main contracts and the processing profits of Thai standard rubber, which can help understand the profit situation in Thailand [32]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data Presentation - **Main - producing Areas' Weather and Rainfall**: The report provides data on the weather and rainfall in main - producing areas, including the SOI and ONI index changes, and the cumulative precipitation in Hainan, Yunnan, and Thailand, which can help analyze the impact of weather on rubber production [36][38]. - **Main - producing Countries' Exports**: The report provides data on the exports of main - producing countries, including the cumulative exports and year - on - year changes of Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cote d'Ivoire, which can help analyze the supply situation in the international market [42][44]. - **Domestic Natural Rubber Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Data on the domestic supply, demand, and inventory of natural rubber are provided, including the cumulative supply and demand and year - on - year changes, and the total inventory, which can help analyze the domestic market situation [47]. - **China's Natural Rubber Imports**: Data on China's natural rubber imports are provided, including the cumulative imports and year - on - year changes, and the imports by rubber type, which can help analyze the import situation of different rubber types [50][53]. - **Light - colored Rubber Analysis**: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of light - colored rubber are provided, including the cumulative consumption and supply and year - on - year changes, and the monthly supply of whole - milk and 3L rubber, which can help analyze the light - colored rubber market [56][58]. - **Dark - colored Rubber Analysis**: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of dark - colored rubber are provided, including the cumulative consumption and import and year - on - year changes, and the inventory of different types of dark - colored rubber, which can help analyze the dark - colored rubber market [65][68]. - **Tire Industry**: Data on the tire industry are provided, including the production, inventory, and demand of whole - steel and semi - steel tires, and the sales of automobiles and commercial vehicles, which can help analyze the demand situation of the tire industry [70][79]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Basis Analysis - **Rubber Price Charts**: Continuous price charts of different rubber types are provided, including whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, 3L rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and latex, which can help analyze the price trends of different rubber types [88]. - **Spot Price Seasonality**: Seasonal charts of spot prices for different rubber types are provided, including whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard two - grade rubber, and Thai standard rubber, which can help analyze the seasonal price characteristics of different rubber types [90]. - **Price Spread Seasonality**: Seasonal charts of price spreads between different rubber types are provided, including the spreads between whole - milk and smoked sheets, 3L rubber, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and latex, which can help analyze the price spread relationships between different rubber types [92][94]. - **Basis Analysis**: Basis analysis between whole - milk and RU contracts, and between Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and NR contracts is provided, which can help analyze the basis relationships between different contracts [96][99]. - **Contract Spreads**: Spreads between different contracts are provided, including spreads between RU contracts and between RU and NR contracts, which can help analyze the spread relationships between different contracts [102][104].