天然气市场波动率
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天然气:市场波动率下降,地缘风险仍存
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 11:00
Report Title - The report is titled "Natural Gas: Market Volatility Declines, Geopolitical Risks Remain" [1] Researcher Information - The researcher is Wu Xiaorong, with a futures practice certificate number of F03108405 and an investment consulting certificate number of Z0021537 [2] Report Structure - The report consists of three chapters: "Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies", "Fundamental Analysis", and "Core Data Tracking" [3] Fundamental Analysis LNG Market - Some data related to LNG: 103 LNG, 162 LNG, 91.7; 4370 GWh/ with a 21.2% change; 1710 GWh/ with an 8.2% change, 9932 GWh/ with a 2.0% change; power consumption data such as 439.7 TWH, 49.8 TWH, 149 TWh with an -18.8% change, 38.5%, 51.3%, 55.2% [11] US Market - The number of natural gas rigs is 1117, with an 8.9% change compared to the previous period and a 5.6% change year - on - year; the number of rigs increased by 3 to 125; some consumption and production data: 1315 / with a 9.0% change, 394 / with a 30.7% change, 293 / with a 52.1% change, 519 / with a 15.2% change; 187 with a 27.1% change and 23.5% change [13] Core Data Tracking Price and Spread - TTF - HH spread, international natural gas prices (JKM first - line, TFU first - line, HH first - line), HH month - spread (HH M1 - M2, HH M1 - M6, HH M1 - M12), TTF month - spread (TTF M1 - M2, TTF M1 - M6, TTF M1 - M12) are presented in graphical form [17] - HH, JKM, and TTF forward curves are shown [20] Supply and Demand in China - China's natural gas supply and demand, including supply volume and consumption volume, and China's LNG supply (domestic LNG supply and imported tanker LNG supply) are presented in graphical form [23] Inventory in China - China's inventory situation, including receiving station inventory level (in tons) and gas storage inventory level (in percentage), and China's LNG ex - factory price (China LNG ex - factory settlement price, North China LNG ex - factory settlement price, South China LNG ex - factory settlement price, East China LNG ex - factory settlement price) are presented in graphical form [26] European Market - Northwest European gas - coal conversion interval, European natural gas inventory, floating storage over 20 days volume, European LNG import volume, and European natural gas import (Norwegian exports to (European continent + UK), Russian three main lines, Russian exports to Bulgaria, North African pipeline gas, LNG imports, Azerbaijan to Italy) are presented in graphical form [29][32] US Market - US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig number (natural gas rigs and oil - gas rigs), liquefied export project flow, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, residential and commercial consumption are presented in graphical form [35][38] - US supply - demand balance sheet data: dry gas production is 1117.1 (compared to 1025.9 last week and 1057.7 last year, with an 8.9% and 5.6% change respectively); Canadian pipeline gas net import is 75.1 (compared to 87.3 last week and 62.0 last year, with a - 14.0% and 21.1% change respectively); domestic demand is 1314.7 (compared to 1445.4 last week and 1017.3 last year, with a - 9.0% and 29.2% change respectively); gas - electricity consumption is 393.6 (compared to 423.3 last week and 301.1 last year, with a - 7.0% and 30.7% change respectively); industrial consumption is 292.7 (compared to 317.0 last week and 192.4 last year, with a - 7.7% and 52.1% change respectively); residential and commercial consumption is 519.4 (compared to 595.6 last week and 429.1 last year, with a - 0.3% and 15.2% change respectively); pipeline loss and liquefaction plant demand is 109.1 (compared to 109.4 last week and 94.7 last year, with a - 0.3% and 15.2% change respectively); pipeline gas export to Mexico is 62.7 (compared to 63.1 last week and 64.4 last year, with a - 0.7% and - 2.7% change respectively); liquefied export project flow is 186.8 (compared to 146.9 last week and 151.2 last year, with a 27.1% and 23.5% change respectively) [40] Weather Forecast - ECMWF and GFS temperature and wind speed forecasts are presented in graphical form [43][46]