Core Insights - The electricity and public utilities index underperformed the market in September, with a decline of 0.20%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 1.39 percentage points [2][3] Demand and Supply Situation - In August 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 5%, although the growth rate decreased by 3.6 percentage points compared to July 2025. The primary industry saw the highest growth rate, exceeding 10% [3] - On the supply side, the growth of wind power generation accelerated, while hydropower saw a larger decline. The growth rates for thermal, nuclear, and solar power generation slowed down. As of August 2025, the share of thermal power in industrial generation was 65.04%, hydropower 13.07%, nuclear power 5.01%, wind power 10.85%, and solar power 6.02% [3] Installed Capacity - As of the end of August 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power accounted for 45.92% of the total [4] Coal Market Situation - In August 2025, the production of raw coal was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to July 2025. Coal imports totaled 42.74 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year [5] - Domestic coal prices stabilized and rebounded, with the price of thermal coal at northern ports reaching 705 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 0.71% but an annual decrease of 8.44%. The average price of coking coal at major national ports was 1,556 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.93% and an annual increase of 9.71% [5] Natural Gas Market Situation - In August 2025, the output of industrial natural gas was 21.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, although the growth rate slowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to July 2025. Natural gas imports were 11.85 million tons, up 0.76% year-on-year [8] - The price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3,864 yuan/ton as of September 20, 2025, reflecting a monthly decrease of 2.22% [9] Water Supply Situation - The water inflow at the Three Gorges Dam improved significantly, with an inflow of 21,000 cubic meters per second and an outflow of 28,700 cubic meters per second as of September 28, 2025. The average daily inflow and outflow in September increased by 91% and 183%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2024 [10] Regional Electricity Supply and Demand - In August 2025, the total electricity consumption in Henan Province was 49.446 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%. The power generation in the province was 42.542 billion kWh, also reflecting an increase of 8.93% year-on-year [11][12] - As of the end of August 2025, the installed capacity in Henan Province was 16,123 MW, with an increase of 1,601 MW year-on-year. The combined share of wind, solar, and storage capacity was 49.63% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The electricity consumption growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 is projected at 2.5%, with a notable recovery in March [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - In March 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to March 2025, the total electricity consumption was 2,384.6 billion kWh, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with the primary industry showing the highest growth rate [1][3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the industrial electricity generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 22,699 billion kWh [3]. - The share of thermal power generation was 67.52%, while wind power accounted for 12.45%, with hydro and nuclear power at 9.84% and 5.17%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Coal Market Overview - In March 2025, the industrial raw coal production was 44.1 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [4]. - The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 660 RMB/ton, down 2.22% in April 2025 [4]. - Coal inventory at northern ports was 31.12 million tons as of April 25, 2025, with slight fluctuations observed [5]. Group 3: Natural Gas Market Overview - Natural gas production showed stable growth, with an output of 66 billion cubic meters in the first quarter of 2025, up 4.3% year-on-year [6]. - Natural gas imports decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, totaling 29.42 million tons from January to March 2025 [6]. - The price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4,481.6 RMB/ton as of April 20, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% [6]. Group 4: Hydropower Situation - As of April 24, 2025, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir were 8,000 and 8,300 cubic meters per second, respectively, indicating a decrease in inflow compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. Group 5: Regional Electricity Supply and Demand - In March 2025, Henan Province's total electricity consumption was 4.259 billion kWh, up 3.33% year-on-year [8]. - The total electricity generation in Henan Province for March 2025 was 30.092 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.23% [8].