中信建投研报表示，当前机构关注基础化工、国防军工、汽车、纺织服装、非银行金融和传媒行业，通 信行业的机构关注度从高位下降。最近一周"石油石化"、"煤炭"、"钢铁"、"轻工制造"和"非银行金 融"行业的机构关注度在提升。当前较多行业处于触发拥挤指标阈值的状态（流动性、成分股一致 性）。2025年11月看好电力及公用事业、基础化工、电力设备及新能源、电子和计算机的相对收益。黄 金、白银、铜和原油的VIX抬升，中长期依然看多黄金。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The sentiment index for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is declining from high levels, with a decrease in the VIX for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [1] - Current institutional focus is on the defense and military industry, while attention in the telecommunications sector has decreased from high levels [1] - There has been an increase in institutional interest in the "oil and petrochemicals," "coal," "steel," "retail," and "non-bank financial" sectors over the past week [1] Group 2 - Many industries are currently at the threshold of triggering congestion indicators, including liquidity, constituent stock diffusion, and constituent stock consistency [1] - The relative returns for electric power and utilities, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, electronics, and computers are expected to be favorable by November 2025 [1] - The VIX for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil has decreased, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [1]

Group 1: Macro Timing Strategy - The macro timing strategy has an annualized return of 7.67% as of October 31, 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.45 and a Calmar ratio of 1.67, indicating a maximum drawdown of -4.60% [2][4][5] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 7.01% in CSI 300 ETF, 7.99% in CSI 500 ETF, 55.94% in government bond ETF, 11.63% in soybean meal ETF, 5.02% in non-ferrous ETF, 7.40% in gold ETF, and 5.00% in currency ETF, with no allocation to S&P 500 ETF and corporate bond ETF [7][8] Group 2: Momentum Strategy - The momentum strategy has an annualized return of 18.25% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.88 and a Calmar ratio of 0.64, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.72% [9][10] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 27.01% in Huatai-PB CSI Telecom Theme ETF, 24.92% in Fuguo CSI Tourism Theme ETF, 21.52% in Xinhua CSI Cloud Computing 50 ETF, 16.38% in Huatai-PB CSI Smart Car ETF, and 8.17% in Huaxia CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF [13][14] Group 3: Sector Rotation Strategy - The sector rotation strategy has an annualized return of 10.00% since 2020, with an excess return of 7.27% relative to CSI 300, and a maximum drawdown of -42.98% [15] - The latest portfolio includes home appliance ETF, green power ETF, steel ETF, new energy vehicle ETF, financial ETF, and agricultural ETF, while excluding non-ferrous metals ETF and transportation ETF [18][19] Group 4: Copula-Based Second-Order Stochastic Dominance Strategy - The Copula-based second-order stochastic dominance strategy has an annualized return of 14.41% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.68 and a maximum drawdown of -42.62% [20][24] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 5.00% in Huaxia CSI Petrochemical Industry ETF, 85.00% in Fuguo CSI 800 Bank ETF, 5.00% in Fuguo CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF, and 5.00% in Bosera CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF [23][25] Group 5: Quantile Random Forest Technology ETF Allocation Strategy - The quantile random forest technology ETF allocation strategy has an annualized return of 13.54% since 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.76 and a maximum drawdown of -29.89% [26] - The latest portfolio allocation consists of 95.63% in technology ETFs, including 4.78% in Jiahua National Communication ETF, 4.78% in Tianhong CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, 4.78% in Huabao CSI Military Industry ETF, 76.51% in Ping An CSI Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, and 4.78% in Fuguo CSI Technology 50 Strategy ETF [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Q4 style rotation model indicates signals for small-cap and growth stocks, with recommended sectors including communication, electric equipment, and renewable energy for November [1][2]. Group 1: Style Rotation Model - The Q4 style rotation model has issued signals favoring small-cap stocks, with a comprehensive score of -1 as of September 30, 2025 [3]. - The value-growth style rotation model also shows a preference for growth stocks, with a comprehensive score of -3 for Q4 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Rotation Insights - For October, the composite factor strategy yielded an excess return of -0.69%, while the single-factor multi-strategy had an excess return of -0.93% [4]. - In November, the single-factor multi-strategy recommends bullish sectors including media, communication, electronics, non-bank financials, electric equipment, and renewable energy [4]. - The composite factor strategy suggests bullish sectors such as communication, computer, electric and utility services, media, electric equipment, and renewable energy [4].

- The report utilizes an event study framework to analyze the effects of index sample stock adjustments, focusing on the short-term positive abnormal returns observed before the announcement date of the adjustments[4][7][12] - The prediction model for the CSI 300 Index sample stock adjustments follows the methodology outlined in the CSI 300 Index Compilation Scheme, which includes the following steps: 1. Define the sample space: The sample space consists of A-shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges that meet specific criteria, such as listing duration and market capitalization[29][33] 2. Filter by trading volume: Stocks are ranked by average daily trading volume from November 1, 2024, to October 31, 2025, and the bottom 40% of old samples are excluded[29][33] 3. Filter by market capitalization: Stocks are ranked by average daily market capitalization, retaining the top 240 new samples and the top 360 old samples, considering buffer zone rules[29][30] 4. Exclude stocks penalized by the CSRC, financially unprofitable stocks, and stocks suspended for a long time[30] - The prediction model for the CSI 500 Index sample stock adjustments follows the methodology outlined in the CSI 500 Index Compilation Scheme, which includes the following steps: 1. Define the sample space: The sample space consists of A-shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges that meet specific criteria, such as listing duration and market capitalization[34][39] 2. Filter by trading volume: Securities are ranked by average daily trading volume over the past year, and the bottom 20% are excluded[35] 3. Filter by market capitalization: Remaining securities are ranked by average daily market capitalization over the past year, and the top 500 are selected as index samples[35] 4. Apply adjustment and buffer rules: New samples ranked within the top 400 by market capitalization are prioritized for inclusion, while old samples ranked within the top 600 are prioritized for retention[39] - The historical prediction accuracy for the CSI 300 Index sample stock adjustments from June 2019 to November 2025 is as follows: - Correct predictions for sample stock additions: 178 out of 229, with an accuracy rate of 78%[26] - Correct predictions for sample stock removals: 219 out of 229, with an accuracy rate of 96%[26] - The historical prediction accuracy for the CSI 500 Index sample stock adjustments from June 2023 to November 2025 is as follows: - Correct predictions for sample stock additions: 177 out of 250, with an accuracy rate of 71%[28] - Correct predictions for sample stock removals: 230 out of 250, with an accuracy rate of 92%[28] - The backtesting results for the June 2025 CSI 300 Index sample stock adjustments show: - Predicted additions: Average cumulative excess return of 2.29% before the announcement date and -2.24% after the announcement date[18][20] - Predicted removals: Average cumulative excess return of -0.67% before the announcement date and 0.22% after the announcement date[18][20] - The backtesting results for the June 2025 CSI 500 Index sample stock adjustments show: - Predicted additions: Average cumulative excess return of -0.73% before the announcement date and 0.60% after the announcement date[24][25] - Predicted removals: Average cumulative excess return of 2.65% before the announcement date and -0.13% after the announcement date[24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The electricity and public utilities sector has outperformed the market in October, with the CITIC Electricity and Public Utilities Index rising by 4.71% since the beginning of the month, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 3.09 percentage points [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CITIC Electricity and Public Utilities Index has increased by 4.71% since October 1, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 1.62% [1][2]. - The leading sub-sectors in terms of growth are thermal power (8.70%), gas (6.45%), and hydropower (4.48%) [1][2]. Group 2: Electricity Supply and Demand - In September 2025, electricity consumption increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with the first industry showing a higher growth rate compared to other industries and residential consumption [3]. - The industrial electricity generation in September 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with thermal and wind power generation experiencing a decline, while hydropower generation increased [3]. - As of September 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power (45.96%) has surpassed that of thermal power (40.45%) [3]. Group 3: Coal Market - In September 2025, the production of raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with the decline rate narrowing compared to August [4]. - Coal prices have been rising, with the price of thermal coal at northern ports reaching 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57% for the month [4]. Group 4: Natural Gas Market - Natural gas production increased by 9.4% year-on-year in September 2025, while imports decreased by 7.86% [6]. - The price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3864 yuan/ton as of October 20, 2025, remaining stable for the month [6]. Group 5: Hydropower Conditions - The water inflow at the Three Gorges has significantly improved since September 2025, with the inflow rate increasing by 143% compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. Group 6: Regional Electricity Supply and Demand - In September 2025, Henan Province experienced a year-on-year decrease in total electricity consumption of 4.99% and a decrease in generation of 12.1% [8]. - The installed capacity in Henan Province reached 16,259 MW by the end of September 2025, with wind and solar power accounting for 50.05% of the total [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound on October 15, with the S&P A-Share Dividend Index leading the mainstream dividend indices, rising by 0.92% and accumulating a nearly 3% increase for the month as of October 15, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P A-Share Dividend ETF (562060) also performed strongly, surging by 1.2% to a new high, closing at 0.592 yuan, with frequent premiums during trading [1] - In the past five trading days, the S&P Dividend ETF attracted over 40 million yuan, becoming a favored tool for investment in a slow bull market [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - All top ten sectors of the S&P A-Share Dividend Index recorded gains on October 15, with the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors rising over 2%, while machinery, light manufacturing, and home appliance sectors also increased by over 1% [2] - The top ten sectors and their respective weightings and performance on October 15 are as follows: - Banking: 16.58%, +0.61% - Machinery: 11.02%, +1.88% - Light Manufacturing: 8.68%, +1.25% - Home Appliances: 7.20%, +1.44% - Basic Chemicals: 6.28%, +0.83% - Textiles and Apparel: 5.55%, +1.70% - Pharmaceuticals: 4.76%, +2.05% - Automotive: 3.96%, +2.32% - Power and Utilities: 3.94%, +0.45% - Construction: 3.87%, +1.12% [2] Group 3: Stock Performance - Nearly 80% of the constituent stocks recorded positive returns, with Mercury Home Textiles leading with a 9.41% increase, followed by Kesi Co. at 7.38%, and Hailong Cold Chain at 6.83% [2][4] - The top-performing stocks on October 15 include: - Mercury Home Textiles: +9.41% - Kesi Co.: +7.38% - Hailong Cold Chain: +6.83% - Shenhuo Co.: +5.90% - Jinbei Electric: +3.57% - Siwei Liekong: +3.42% - Tianshan Aluminum: +3.21% - Zhongchuang Zhiling: +3.19% - Gujia Home: +2.86% - Yutong Bus: +2.80% [4] Group 4: Investment Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the fourth quarter of 2025 may be a key time for bottom-fishing in dividend stocks to achieve excess returns, as pessimistic expectations may have been fully reflected [5] - The S&P A-Share Dividend Index has shown superior performance in both yield and dividend rate, with a one-year return of 24.56% and a latest dividend yield of 5.27% [5] - The index emphasizes dividend stability and sustainable profitability, with a strict 3% individual stock weight limit, leading to a more balanced market capitalization distribution [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the automotive industry, with production and sales reaching 24.33 million and 24.36 million units respectively from January to September, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 12.9% [5][8] - The report emphasizes the positive performance of the financial and liquor sectors in the A-share market, indicating a potential for investment opportunities in these areas [5][9] - The gaming sector is projected to perform well due to favorable policies and AI-driven advancements, with a notable increase in revenue and profit for gaming companies [27][29] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,865.23, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,895.11, down 2.54% [3] - The A-share market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with significant trading volumes indicating investor interest [5][9] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, and the S&P 500 closed at 3,801.78, down 0.45%, reflecting a general downturn in major international indices [4] Industry Analysis - The basic chemical industry showed a slight increase in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.300467 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [20][21] - The gaming industry is experiencing robust growth, with a nearly 24% increase in revenue and a 75% increase in net profit year-on-year [29][27] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with a significant decline in new installations, down 55.29% year-on-year in August [23][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the soft drink, health products, and snack sectors, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [19][27] - In the gaming sector, the report recommends monitoring companies with strong product cycles and performance metrics, as well as those leveraging AI technologies [29][27]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the gaming sector driven by strong performance, favorable policies, and AI integration, with the gaming sub-sector showing significant growth [21][23][24] - The basic chemical industry experienced slight revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, indicating a bottoming recovery trend [15][16] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with a significant decline in new installation demand, while energy consumption standards for polysilicon production are set to increase, potentially constraining supply [17][18][20] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,933.97 with a gain of 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13,725.56 [3] - The A-share market showed mixed performance with sectors like aerospace and automotive leading gains, while gaming and consumer electronics lagged [12][13] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced slight declines, indicating a cautious global market sentiment [4] Industry Analysis - The basic chemical sector reported total revenue of 13,004.67 billion with a year-on-year growth of 4.70%, and net profit of 770.50 billion, reflecting a stable recovery [15][16] - The gaming industry saw a remarkable increase in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% and 75% respectively, showcasing strong market demand [23][24] - The photovoltaic sector's new installation capacity dropped by 55.29% year-on-year in August, highlighting a significant slowdown in growth [18][20] Policy and Economic Environment - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to stimulate economic growth, including measures to enhance consumption and support traditional industries [9][10] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a "weak recovery, low inflation" phase, with a focus on stabilizing growth and preventing risks [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment approach between growth and value styles, with a focus on sectors like TMT, pharmaceuticals, and securities [10][32] - In the basic chemical sector, it is recommended to focus on segments benefiting from supply-side improvements, such as pesticides and organic silicon [16] - For the gaming sector, attention is drawn to companies with strong product cycles and performance metrics, as well as those leveraging AI for efficiency [23][24]

Market Performance - On September 26, 2025, the A-share market experienced a volume contraction, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.65% to 3,828.11 points[14] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.76% to 13,209.00 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.60% to 3,151.53 points[14] - The total market turnover was 21,661.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,256.62 billion yuan from the previous trading day[14] Sector and Style Analysis - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, most sectors declined; notable gainers included Oil & Petrochemicals (up 1.06%), Utilities (up 0.40%), and Steel (up 0.38%)[19] - The worst-performing sectors were Computer (-3.51%), Media (-2.74%), and Electronics (-2.65%)[19] - In terms of investment style, the ranking of index performance was: 0 > Cyclical > Defensive > Financial > Growth > Consumer[19] Capital Flow - On September 26, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 835.79 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 572.35 billion yuan and 263.43 billion yuan respectively[23] - Small orders continued to see a net inflow of 822.51 billion yuan, while medium orders had a slight inflow of 13.28 billion yuan[23] ETF Trading Activity - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw significant decreases in trading volume, with changes of -2.86 billion yuan and -2.70 billion yuan respectively[27] - The total trading volume for the major ETFs on September 26 included 14.35 billion yuan for the SSE 50 ETF and 33.45 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF[27] Global Market Overview - On September 26, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.35% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.87%[30] - European indices also declined, with the DAX down 0.56% and the FTSE 100 down 0.39%[31] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both decreased by 0.50%[31]