扣非盈利同比提升，新能源量增对冲价减 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 180,999 | 179,182 | 176,287 | 182,102 | 187,018 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -7.0 | -1.0 | -1.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,609 | 9,831 | 7,422 | 8,222 | 8,822 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 98.8 | 75.3 | -24.5 | 10.8 | 7.3 | | ROE（%） | 10.0 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.3 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.49 | | P/E（倍） | 15.3 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 9.7 | | P/B（倍） | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 资料来源：公司财报， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the market has improved its profit expectations for growth sectors, particularly in the context of the ChiNext 50 ETF, which has seen a rise of over 1.8% [1] - Profit forecasts for various sectors including electricity and utilities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, real estate, chemicals, coal, and light industry have been raised for 2025/2026 [1] - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing high trading activity, ranking above the 80th percentile, with significant net purchases in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and computers [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index (399673), which includes 50 large-cap, liquid stocks from the ChiNext market, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, information technology, communications, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The index reflects the performance of innovative and high-growth companies, characterized by high R&D investment and significant strategic emerging features [1] - The communication and military sectors have seen increased allocations from actively managed equity funds, with the communication sector's financing buy-in ratio exceeding the 90th historical percentile [1]

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" theme has a broader industry coverage compared to the supply-side reform from 2015-2018, including sectors like photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, steel, coal, building materials, basic chemicals, and pig farming [22][23][28] - The steel and coal industries are transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with steel profitability already improving, while photovoltaic and medical devices show stronger demand for "anti-involution" [27][28] - The report highlights that the photovoltaic and medical device sectors are in an active destocking phase, with high potential for price rebound if successful [27][28] Group 2 - The equity market is experiencing a slight decline in sentiment, with expectations for a high-level fluctuation in August, as the overall financial and industrial sentiment has decreased [31][32] - The 10Y government bond yield is expected to slightly decline to 1.70% in August, influenced by factors such as economic growth and inflation [50][53] - The real estate sector is under increasing demand-side pressure, with the industry pressure index rising slightly to 0.597, indicating a potential worsening of the market situation [69][71] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on high win-rate and high payout industries, including computer, electric equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, transportation, and light manufacturing [4] - The "clearing reversal" strategy suggests investing in industries that are at the end of the clearing phase, with rising demand and improved competitive landscape, such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and utilities [4][88] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small-cap stocks, which have shown a slight increase in attention compared to large-cap stocks [87][88]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery of the Chinese economy, driven by consumption and investment, with a stable upward trend in the A-share market supported by policy and capital inflows [13][14][15]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,559.95, down 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,991.32, down 0.17% [3]. - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.66 and 40.72, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [13][14]. International Market Performance - Major international indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, reflecting a cautious global market sentiment [4]. Industry Analysis Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic index rebounded significantly in July, with a 9.73% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by policies addressing low-price competition [18][19]. - The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity in June was 14.36 GW, a year-on-year decline of 38.45%, while the cumulative installed capacity for the first half of the year reached 212.21 GW, a 107.07% increase [19]. - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as policies for capacity reduction are implemented [20]. New Energy Vehicle Industry - The global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 20 million units by 2025, with China maintaining a leading position, accounting for 65% of global sales in 2024 [23]. - The report emphasizes the comprehensive development of the new energy vehicle industry chain in Henan Province, which has seen significant growth and is now among the top ten in production nationwide [24]. New Energy Storage Industry - The new energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected installation of 300 million kW by 2025, driven by advancements in lithium-ion battery technology and supportive government policies [27][30]. - The report outlines the competitive landscape of the energy storage system integration market, highlighting key players and the importance of technological advancements [28]. Engineering Machinery and Robotics - The engineering machinery sector showed a 7.35% increase in July, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with strong performance in laser processing equipment and engineering machinery [32][33]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable earnings and high dividend yields in the engineering machinery sector [33]. Power and Utilities Sector - The power and utilities index underperformed the market, with a 2.12% increase in July, while the overall electricity demand showed a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in June [35][36]. - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the power and utilities sector, emphasizing the importance of stable earnings from large hydropower companies [36].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Central Enterprise Innovation Index (000861.CSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: The index selects 100 representative listed companies under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) based on their innovation and profitability to reflect the overall performance of innovative central enterprises[8] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Sample Space**: All listed companies under SASAC[9] - **Step 1**: Rank the securities in the sample space by average daily trading volume over the past year and exclude the bottom 20%[9] - **Step 2**: Select the remaining securities controlled by SASAC and its subsidiaries[9] - **Step 3**: Exclude securities with negative operating cash flow in the past year and negative net profit excluding non-recurring items in the past two years[9] - **Step 4**: Calculate the innovation score for non-financial companies based on R&D expenditure, R&D personnel ratio, patent quality score, and participation in national or industry standards. For financial companies, use revenue, net profit, patent quality score, and participation in standards[9] - **Step 5**: Rank the remaining securities by innovation score and select the top 50% as innovation-themed securities[9] - **Step 6**: Calculate the quality score for non-financial companies based on ROE, net profit growth, earnings quality, and financial leverage. For financial companies, use ROE and net profit growth. Combine the quality score with the scale score (based on market cap) to get a comprehensive score[9] - **Step 7**: Select the top 100 securities by comprehensive score as index samples[9] - **Adjustment**: The index samples are adjusted semi-annually[9] - **Model Evaluation**: The index is designed to reflect the performance of innovative central enterprises, with a focus on maintaining representativeness and accuracy through regular adjustments[8][9] Model Backtesting Results - **Central Enterprise Innovation Index**: - **Cumulative Return Since Inception**: 138.08%[5][10] - **Excess Return Over Major Indices**: - CSI 300: 79.25%[5] - SSE Composite Index: 83.67%[5] - CSI 500: 54.40%[5] - CSI 800: 74.09%[5] - **5-Year Cumulative Return**: 33.70%[10] - **Excess Return Over Major Indices in 5 Years**: - CSI 300: 49.24%[10] - SSE Composite Index: 29.47%[10] - CSI 800: 47.94%[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Innovation Score - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluate the innovation capability of non-financial and financial companies based on specific indicators[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Non-Financial Companies**: - R&D expenditure to market cap ratio (40% weight) - R&D personnel ratio (10% weight) - Patent quality score (40% weight) - Participation in national or industry standards (10% weight)[9] - **Financial Companies**: - Revenue (40% weight) - Net profit (10% weight) - Patent quality score (40% weight) - Participation in national or industry standards (10% weight)[9] - **Calculation**: Sum the weighted scores to get the innovation score[9] Factor Name: Quality Score - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assess the financial quality of companies based on profitability and financial stability[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Non-Financial Companies**: - ROE (30% weight) - Net profit growth (35% weight) - Earnings quality (25% weight) - Financial leverage (10% weight)[9] - **Financial Companies**: - ROE (50% weight) - Net profit growth (50% weight)[9] - **Calculation**: Sum the weighted scores to get the quality score[9] Factor Backtesting Results - **Innovation Score**: - **Top 50% Selection**: Used to identify innovation-themed securities[9] - **Quality Score**: - **Comprehensive Score Calculation**: Combined with scale score to select top 100 securities[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a global leader in wind power, focusing on renewable energy development and has a strong strategic advantage due to its long-standing expertise and technological foundation [16][22]. - The company plans to continue its capital expenditure growth, with a 42% increase in 2024, primarily directed towards renewable energy projects [36]. - The company has successfully completed the divestiture of its thermal power assets, allowing it to concentrate on its core renewable energy business [39]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2024 but is expected to recover with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.51% from 2020 to 2024, reaching 37.07 billion yuan [24]. - The net profit is forecasted to grow from 6.63 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.95 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.26% [24]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 9.2% from 2025 to 2027 [24]. Business Layout - The company has a total installed capacity of 41.14 million kilowatts, with wind power accounting for 30.41 million kilowatts, representing 73.91% of its total capacity [39]. - The company has a strategic focus on high-value regions and has secured over 14 GW of new development indicators for 2024 [3]. - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency through self-developed monitoring systems and is actively pursuing upgrades in its wind power projects [8]. Industry Trends - The renewable energy sector is transitioning from explosive growth to a high-quality development phase, driven by technological innovation and market reforms [2]. - The industry is expected to face short-term challenges such as declining electricity prices and consumption bottlenecks, but long-term growth will be supported by optimal market allocation and infrastructure improvements [2]. - The report highlights the importance of integrating renewable energy into the power grid and the ongoing reforms in the electricity market [2].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in China's automotive exports, with 3.083 million vehicles exported in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [3][8] - The number of effective invention patents in strategic emerging industries in China has reached 1.472 million, which is 2.2 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, indicating a strong focus on high-value core patents in key areas such as AI and renewable energy [3][8] - The Henan provincial government has introduced policies to support mergers and acquisitions among listed companies, aiming to guide resources towards emerging sectors like AI and biomedicine [3][8] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry index rose by 6.41% in June, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.52 percentage points, with lithium chemical products and inorganic salts leading the performance [22][23] - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance, with a 6.01% increase in June, and global semiconductor sales continuing to grow, indicating robust demand in the sector [19][35] - The photovoltaic sector saw a record high in new installations in May, with 92.92 GW added, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 388.03% [31][32] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index averaging P/E ratios of 14.44 and 39.44, respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [6][9] - The communication industry index increased by 13.15% in June, driven by a rise in telecom service revenue and the growing adoption of 5G technology [26][29] - The new materials sector outperformed the market with a 6.91% increase in June, supported by rising demand for advanced materials in various applications [34][36]

Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, with consumption and investment as core drivers, suggesting a favorable environment for long-term investment strategies [8][9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes, capital flows, and external market conditions to optimize investment strategies [9][12][27] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,503.78, with a slight decline of 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.22% to 10,720.81 [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.40 and 39.37, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][12] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.67% to 30,772.79, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.45% and 0.15%, respectively [4] - The report notes a significant increase in the Hang Seng Index by 1.60%, reflecting a positive trend in the Hong Kong market [4] Industry Analysis - The automotive and electric power sectors are leading the market, with significant interest in electric vehicles and related technologies [5][9] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong growth, with a 6.01% increase in the semiconductor index in June, outperforming the broader market [18] - The report indicates a robust performance in the lithium battery sector, with a 26.69% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales [17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, and consumer goods, particularly in the snack food market, which is projected to grow at 6% to 8% annually [13][17][21] - Specific stocks recommended include Qiaqia Food (002557), Jin Zai Food (003000), and Yanjinpuzi (002847) within the snack food sector [16] Key Data Updates - The report notes that the average daily trading volume in the A-share market remains above the three-year average, indicating healthy market activity [9][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, with a record 92.92 GW added in May, reflecting strong demand in the renewable energy sector [29][30]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a mixed performance on July 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10684.52 points, down 0.11% [1][5][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 20 sectors saw gains, with machinery, petroleum and petrochemicals, and electric power and utilities leading the increases, while comprehensive finance, real estate, and media sectors faced significant declines [1][5][9] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 14809 billion, showing a noticeable decrease compared to the previous day [1][5][9] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27%, reaching a historical high [2][5] - The Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index fell by 0.1%, with Apple dropping over 1% and Nvidia down 0.52% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released opinions on strengthening judicial work in the new era, emphasizing the need to combat financial crimes and improve regulations in emerging financial sectors [11] - The People's Bank of China announced that the social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 4.74 trillion more than the same period last year [10][13] - China's total import and export value for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current strong resonance between Chinese and American stock markets reflects optimistic expectations for future corporate capital returns, with A-shares stabilizing from historical lows and U.S. stocks maintaining high ROE levels [1][2] - The three main catalysts for stabilizing and recovering capital returns in A-shares are: (1) anti-involution leading to stabilization in industries previously constrained by excessive capital expansion, (2) overseas manufacturing demand exceeding service sector demand, and (3) the end of debt contraction cycles [2][3] - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices are ahead of ROE, which aligns with historical bottoming characteristics, and while the absolute level of PB is not extreme, the low absolute level of ROE affects the elasticity and pace of PB recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The future state of capital returns is expected to shift, with domestic capital returns stabilizing and overseas capital returns potentially declining due to the combination of anti-involution, cessation of debt contraction, and the development of overseas manufacturing [4][5] - The relative advantage of the "barbell strategy" may diminish as ROE gradually recovers, with traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, and utilities showing a higher proportion of low PB stocks compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as exploring opportunities in new consumption sectors like hospitality and retail [5]