分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 1、据央视新闻，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）1 日发表声明说，8 个主要产 油国决定 4 月日均增产 20.6 万桶。沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联 酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举行线上会议， 讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 2、2 月 28 日，人形机器人与具身智能标准化（HEIS）年会在北京经济 技术开发区举办。会上，我国首个国家级人形机器人与具身智能标准体系 ——《人形机器人与具身智能标准体系（2026 版）》正式发布。该体系紧 扣产业发展现状与未来趋势，覆盖基础共性、类脑与智算、肢体与部组件、 整机与系统、应用、安全等全产业链环节，填补了国内人形机器人与具身 智能领域标准体系的空白，引领人形机器人与具身智能产业标准化发展。 3、3 月 2 日，千问首款 AI 硬件"千问 AI 眼镜"正式上线，开启线上线 下全渠道预约。该产品将于 3 月 8 日在中国市场现货发售，并于 2026 年 内登陆全球市场。据悉，千问 AI 眼镜还将全面接入千问 APP，首批点外 ...

证券研究报告|金融工程动态报告 金融工程 2026年03月02日 长期继续看多黄金，短期关注原油和铜 ——另类投资策略周度跟踪 证券分析师： 王程畅 执业证书编号：S0210526020002 李杨 执业证书编号：S0210524100005 华福证券 摘要 2 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 核心观点：A股情绪指数抬升，港股情绪指数下降，上证50、沪深300、中证500和中证1000的VIX下降，对A股的择时 仓位为看多，对港股的择时仓位为中性。当前机构关注基础化工和汽车行业，非银行金融行业的机构关注度从高位下降 。最近一周"煤炭"、"电力及公用事业"、"银行"、"非银行金融"和"传媒"行业的机构关注度在提升。当前石 油石化、有色金属、钢铁、基础化工和建材行业处于触发拥挤指标阈值的状态（流动性、成分股扩散、波动率）。 2026年03月看好传媒、电子、汽车和农林牧渔的相对收益。黄金和白银的VIX高位下降，铜和原油的VIX高位震荡。美 国实际利率下行、市场波动增加、地缘政治风险抬升、黄金需求增加，中长期依然看多黄金。 ➢ A股和港股投资者情绪跟踪：A股方面，"A股情绪指数_等权"抬升，上证50、沪深300、中证500和 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2026 年 03 月 02 日 2、当地时间 2 月 28 日，根据国际油轮流量监测系统的实时数据显示， 目前位于霍尔木兹海峡周边海域的油轮航行速度已普遍降至零，显示该 地区的航运已陷入停滞状态。 3、2 月 28 日，国家发改委价格监测中心称，2025 年 9 月至今，受需求 "爆发式"增长、产能"断崖式"紧缺等因素影响，全球存储器市场缺口 扩大，存储芯片价格持续上涨，近 1 个月多以来，涨幅呈现扩大态势，建 议关注存储芯片对下游价格的影响。 资料来源：央视网，央视新闻，财联社 【宏观策略】 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 22% 29% 36% 2025.03 2025.07 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, driven by increased capital expenditure from major cloud companies and a robust demand for AI infrastructure [22][24][25] - The electric power sector is expected to benefit from a significant increase in installed capacity, with a focus on renewable energy sources such as solar and wind [27][28][29] - The food and beverage sector shows mixed performance, with certain sub-sectors like prepared foods and snacks performing well, while others face challenges [19][20] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,134.02, with a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.86% to 14,283.00 [4] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext at 16.91 and 53.15, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][11] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, reflecting a cautious global market sentiment [5] Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry saw a strong performance in January 2026, with a 18.63% increase in the domestic semiconductor index, significantly outperforming the broader market [22][23] - The electric power sector's installed capacity reached 38.9 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, marking a 16.1% year-on-year increase, with solar and wind energy contributing significantly to this growth [27][28] - The food and beverage sector's sales in January 2026 showed a slight increase of 0.11% year-on-year, with a notable decline in month-on-month sales due to policy changes [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI and high-end manufacturing, while also considering opportunities in consumer sectors [10][11][15] - In the semiconductor space, investors are encouraged to look at companies benefiting from AI demand and increased capital expenditures from cloud providers [24][25][26] - For the electric power sector, a "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on stable, high-dividend companies as well as growth opportunities in renewable energy [27][29]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the A-share market, with various sectors showing different trends, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [8][9][10] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, with manufacturing PMI indicating expansion in high-tech sectors, suggesting a positive outlook for growth [11][12] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on balanced allocations, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, while monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes [8][9][10] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,065.58, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,906.73, down 0.33% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.75 and 51.98, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] Industry Analysis - The power and utilities sector showed strong performance, with the China Power and Utilities Index rising 2.76% in January, outperforming the broader market [15] - The electricity supply and demand situation remains robust, with total electricity consumption exceeding 10 trillion kWh in 2025, driven by growth in the service sector [15][16] - The chemical industry saw a price recovery in January, with the basic chemical index rising 10.13%, suggesting potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from rising raw material prices [18][20] Technology Sector Insights - The AI and technology sectors are expected to continue their growth trajectory, with significant advancements anticipated in AI models and applications, particularly with the upcoming release of DeepSeek V4 [21][22][23] - The semiconductor market is experiencing growth, with global sales increasing by 29.8% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for technology components [24][25] Renewable Energy Sector - The photovoltaic industry is projected to see significant growth, with over 300 GW of new installations expected in 2025, despite challenges in export demand [27][28] - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to accelerate the exit of high-cost production capacities, impacting market dynamics [27][28] Communication Industry - The communication sector is experiencing strong growth, with the industry index rising 12.82% in December, driven by increased demand for 5G and related technologies [33][34] - Supply chain constraints in key materials for optical components are anticipated to impact market growth until late 2026, highlighting the need for strategic investments in this area [36][37]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,075.92 | -0.64 | 深证成指 | 13,952.71 | -1.44 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,670.42 | -0.60 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,558.24 | -0.73 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,146.11 | -1. ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dynamic balance strategy that has achieved an annualized absolute return of 18.85% and a relative return of 12.26% from January 2015 to January 30, 2026, with a maximum drawdown of 10.18% [3] - Recommended industries for February 2026 include non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, communication, light manufacturing, and steel [3][25] - The macro-driven strategy has generated an annualized excess return of 4.77% since January 2016, with a maximum drawdown of 9.51% [4][45] - The multi-strategy approach has yielded an annualized relative return of 6.32% since May 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 13.24% [5][66] - The extreme style high beta strategy has achieved an annualized relative return of 9.93% since July 2013, but has underperformed in 2026 with a relative excess return of -4.02% [5][80] Industry Performance Summary - In January 2026, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 index rise by 1.65%, while the CSI 500 index increased by 12.12% [16] - The top-performing sectors in January were non-ferrous metals, media, oil and petrochemicals, building materials, and electronics [16] - The dynamic balance strategy outperformed its benchmark in January with an absolute return of 9.18% and an excess return of 4.05% [22][55] - The macro-driven strategy achieved an absolute return of 6.76% in January, with an excess return of 1.20% [4][48] - The multi-strategy approach recorded an absolute return of 4.65% in January, but underperformed its benchmark with an excess return of -0.42% [5][69] Recommended Industries - The dynamic balance strategy recommends non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, communication, light manufacturing, and steel for February 2026 [3][25] - The macro-driven strategy suggests food and beverage, defense and military, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, communication, and basic chemicals for February 2026 [4][24] - The multi-strategy approach recommends real estate, construction, banking, communication, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals for February 2026 [5][56] - The extreme style high beta strategy recommends transportation, electric utilities, basic chemicals, machinery, banking, and oil and petrochemicals for February 2026 [5][74]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 32% 39% 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 2026.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,116.94 | 0.08 | | 深证成指 | | 14,255.12 | 0.70 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,723.07 | 0.09 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,630.50 | 0.26 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,340.11 | 1.12 | | 中证 | 1000 | ...

Key Insights - The report highlights that China's GDP for 2025 is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.0% compared to the previous year, indicating a successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][8] - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance in December 2025, with a 5.11% increase in the domestic semiconductor sector, outperforming the broader market [19] - The electric power and utilities sector maintained a "stronger than market" investment rating, with a focus on stable, high-dividend companies in the sector [36][38] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.00, with a slight increase of 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% to 14294.05 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.80 and 53.52, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][10] Industry Analysis - The aerospace and electric grid sectors led the A-share market with slight gains, while the internet services and software development sectors faced challenges [6][9] - The battery and semiconductor sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with significant growth potential driven by technological advancements and market demand [11][12] Economic Indicators - The report notes a trend of increased capital inflow into the equity market, with a notable rise in margin trading balances, suggesting a positive outlook for market continuation [10][11] - The CPI showed a slight increase in December 2025, indicating marginal improvements in domestic demand [10][11] Sector-Specific Insights - The new energy vehicle sector saw sales of 171.0 million units in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%, supported by favorable policies [15] - The chemical industry experienced a slowdown in price declines, with specific focus on agricultural chemicals and polyester filament [17] - The gaming industry is projected to continue its steady growth, with animation films leading box office revenues [27][30]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the commercial real estate loan policies by the People's Bank of China, setting the minimum down payment ratio at 30% for commercial properties, including mixed-use properties [4][8] - The domestic battery and energy storage sectors are experiencing significant growth, with a reported cumulative production of 1,755.6 GWh and sales of 1,700.5 GWh in 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 60.1% and 63.6% respectively [5][8] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a robust performance, with a 5.11% increase in the semiconductor sector index in December 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is under pressure, with a 4.05% decline in the sector index in December 2025, driven by poor performance in traditional categories like liquor and meat products [19][20] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown signs of volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,101.91, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,281.08, down 0.18% [3] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as a leading performer, with significant increases in both production and sales, indicating strong demand and growth potential [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges, with a notable decline in traditional product categories, while emerging categories like snacks and health products continue to show growth [19][20] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in price declines, particularly in sectors like pesticides and polyester filament, suggesting a stabilization in pricing dynamics [14][15] - The gaming industry is reported to be growing steadily, with animation films leading box office growth, indicating a positive trend in entertainment consumption [23][26] - The new materials sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by increasing demand from manufacturing and technological advancements [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as semiconductor equipment, storage modules, and battery technologies, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and market demand [17][18] - In the food and beverage sector, investment opportunities are recommended in soft drinks, health products, and baked goods, which are showing resilience despite overall sector challenges [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes that could impact market dynamics and investment strategies [12][13]