中原证券近日发布电力及公用事业行业月报：9月电力及公用事业指数表现弱于市场。 截至2025年9月26日，本月中信电力及公用事业指数下跌0.20%，跑输沪深300（1.19%）1.39 个百分点。2025年8月，全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时，连续两月突破1万亿千瓦时，同比增 长5%，但增速较2025年7月降低3.6个百分点。其中，第一产业用电量增速最高，超过10%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 行情回顾：9月电力及公用事业指数表现弱于市场。截至2025年9月26日，本月中信电力 及公用事业指数下跌0.20%，跑输沪深300（1.19%）1.39个百分点。 全国电力供需情况 需求端：2025年8月，全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时，连续两月突破1万亿千瓦时，同比 增长5%，但增速较2025年7月降低3.6个百分点。其中，第一产业用电量增速最高，超过 10%。 供给端：2025年8月，规上工业风电增速加快，水电降幅扩大，火电、核电、太阳能发 电增速放缓。从发电量占比看，2025年1 8月，规上工业火电占比65.04%，规上工业水电占比13.07%，规上工业核电占比 5.01%，规上工业风电占比10.85%，规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electricity consumption growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 is projected at 2.5%, with a notable recovery in March [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - In March 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to March 2025, the total electricity consumption was 2,384.6 billion kWh, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with the primary industry showing the highest growth rate [1][3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the industrial electricity generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 22,699 billion kWh [3]. - The share of thermal power generation was 67.52%, while wind power accounted for 12.45%, with hydro and nuclear power at 9.84% and 5.17%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Coal Market Overview - In March 2025, the industrial raw coal production was 44.1 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [4]. - The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 660 RMB/ton, down 2.22% in April 2025 [4]. - Coal inventory at northern ports was 31.12 million tons as of April 25, 2025, with slight fluctuations observed [5]. Group 3: Natural Gas Market Overview - Natural gas production showed stable growth, with an output of 66 billion cubic meters in the first quarter of 2025, up 4.3% year-on-year [6]. - Natural gas imports decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, totaling 29.42 million tons from January to March 2025 [6]. - The price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4,481.6 RMB/ton as of April 20, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% [6]. Group 4: Hydropower Situation - As of April 24, 2025, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir were 8,000 and 8,300 cubic meters per second, respectively, indicating a decrease in inflow compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. Group 5: Regional Electricity Supply and Demand - In March 2025, Henan Province's total electricity consumption was 4.259 billion kWh, up 3.33% year-on-year [8]. - The total electricity generation in Henan Province for March 2025 was 30.092 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.23% [8].