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大越期货天胶早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution; negative factors are increasing supply and the non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 35 with a spot price of 15100, also neutral [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, being neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high [6]. - **Spot Price** - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 28 [8]. - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [11]. - **Inventory** - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14]. - The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly recently [17]. - **Import** - The import volume has decreased seasonally [20]. - **Downstream Consumption** - Automobile production and sales have increased seasonally [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on July 28 [35]. 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - **Positive Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resistant spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6].
大越期货天胶早报-20250701
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with a neutral view on supply, inventory, and other aspects; the base - point is neutral; the inventory shows different trends in different regions; the market is bullish on the disk, bearish on the main position, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [6]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is starting to increase [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on June 30, and the US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [10]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao region's inventory has also changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao region's inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, but tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [25][31][34]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [8]. - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8]. Basis - The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is - 35, showing a neutral state. The basis turned negative on June 30 [6][37].
大越期货天胶早报-20250627
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex with a mix of positive and negative factors. The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral; Spot price is 13850, basis is - 190, bearish; Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral; The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, bullish; The main position is net short and short positions are decreasing, bearish [4] 3.2 Fundamentals Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - **Price**: The spot price of 23 - year whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 26. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory has changed little recently, and Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32] 3.3 Basis - The basis on June 26 widened [35] 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - **Negative Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]