【市场复盘】 【机构观点】 西南证券认为，全球视角来看，化工行业已经处于新一轮景气周期的起点。我国化工企业在过去几年从 做大到做强，具备了更为坚实的利润基础和更为可观的利润弹性。展望2026年，美国进入降息通道，经 济出现衰退的风险较小，而我国2026年重点经济工作中将提振内需放在任务首位，政策工具充足，所以 认为2026年化工行业的供需改善有望超预期。 1. 上一交易日，INE主力原油期货收跌1.60元/桶，跌幅0.33%，报488.30元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高 硫燃料油收跌10.00元/吨，跌幅0.34%，报2943.00元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌41.00元/吨，跌幅1.18%，报 3436.00元/吨。 2. 上一交易日，天胶主力合约收涨2.10%，20号胶主力收涨2.34%，上海现货价格上调至16300元/吨附 近，基差持稳。节中外盘胶价上涨叠加原油走高，预计橡胶类品质表现延续偏强震荡，后续关注库存拐 点以及产区动态。 3. 上一交易日，乙二醇主力合约上涨，涨幅0.38%。供应端方面，CCF数据显示，乙二醇装置整体变化 不大，其中几套EO-EG联产装置在春节期间有不同程度的调整。3月份进口预计环比下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [4] - Cautiously bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [4] 2. Core观点 of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in January 2026 far exceeded expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. Fed officials' statements and market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed. Indonesia plans to significantly cut nickel production, which will impact the global nickel supply structure. The domestic futures market had a mixed performance at night. For different commodities, their market conditions are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policy, and macro - economic data [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News on the Day International News - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January 2026, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages rose 0.4% month - on - month. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been postponed from June to July. Trump called for significant rate cuts [1][5] Domestic News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The base period for CPI and PPI data was changed in 2025, and the impact of the base - period change was small [6] Industry News - China successfully carried out important tests in the manned lunar exploration project, achieving a significant breakthrough [7] 3.2. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 was almost flat, the European STOXX50 rose slightly, the FTSE China A50 futures fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.80%, London gold and silver prices rose significantly, and most LME metals prices increased. ICE 11 - number sugar fell, while ICE 2 - number cotton rose, and CBOT commodities had mixed performances [8] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: The US three major indexes declined slightly, and the previous trading day's index showed small fluctuations. The building materials sector led the rise, and the communication sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but potential disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday need to be watched out for [3][9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds had mixed performances. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell to 1.79%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repo injection of 4035 billion yuan. After the US non - farm data, the Fed rate - cut expectations were postponed, and US Treasury yields rose. China's economic data showed a recovery in consumption demand. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize. Caution is advised before the holiday [10] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Iran and the US held indirect talks, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports may decline in February [11] - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected import volume in the future is known [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. Domestic and some Thai production areas are in the off - season, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The all - steel tire production is stable. Risk control and position reduction are recommended before the Spring Festival [13] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations and macro factors. Positions need to be gradually controlled before the holiday [14] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass inventory increased, and soda ash inventory increased slightly. Glass supply and demand are being repaired, and soda ash supply is slightly shrinking. Positions need to be controlled before the holiday [15] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at high levels. After the US non - farm data, the rate - cut expectations cooled down, and precious metals prices dropped. In the long term, factors supporting precious metals remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [2][16][17] - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Copper prices may enter an adjustment stage in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be monitored [3][18] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices oscillated at night. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need attention [19] - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum price is at a high level. The aluminum plant operating rate is rising, but the aluminum - water ratio is decreasing, and the downstream enterprise operating rate is falling. Aluminum ingot inventory is accumulating. Although the short - term industry situation is weak, there is support in the long term [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production decreased. Demand also declined. Social inventory decreased. The market sentiment weakened, and the futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities after volatility reduction and be cautious [21] Black - Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. Mine production decreased before the Spring Festival, and Mongolian coal imports decreased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke has limited growth, and the downstream replenishment is almost completed. After the holiday, factors such as iron - water output and mine operations need to be focused on [22] - **Steel**: As the Spring Festival approaches, steel production decreased slightly, and supply is expected to increase later. Steel inventories increased, and demand from the construction industry weakened. The domestic policy environment is still good, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23] - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, mainly from Brazil. Port inventory increased, and domestic iron - concentrate production decreased. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly. Steel mills' demand for iron ore will be based on demand. The iron ore price will oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices rose. Brazil's soybean harvest rate increased, and the USDA raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production. Although the data is bearish, the market has digested it. Domestic bean meal prices followed the foreign market, but future supply pressure may still exist [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil prices fell, while rapeseed oil prices rose slightly. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased, exports increased, and production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the northern hemisphere is in a production - increasing cycle. The domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and imports are high. The price is expected to oscillate [28] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate is decreasing, and textile mills' replenishment is coming to an end. There is still some demand support, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the direct - subsidy policy [29] - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices continued to be weak. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and the spot price is under pressure, which will continue to affect the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the daily slaughter volume of group enterprises and downstream slaughter volume on prices [30] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 1.42%. The spot freight rate is expected to be stable, and the market is expected to oscillate before the holiday. After the holiday, the verification of photovoltaic exports and the implementation of price - increase letters need attention [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday. The overall situation is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. Tire operating rates are at a high level, but automobile production and sales are declining. Tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are recovering [4][23][29] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories have changed little recently, while Qingdao area inventories have rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on February 9, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8][11] Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Negative domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 16,100, and the basis is - 145, showing a bearish signal. The basis weakened on February 9 [4][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [6][11] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment is cooling, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment is cooling, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand shows mixed signals. The tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are rebounding, but automobile production and sales are falling [6][25][31] 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory has not changed much recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area has rebounded The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao area increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19] 3.2.3 Import - The import volume of natural rubber has rebounded [22] 3.2.4 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on February 3rd The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also part of the spot price information [10] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 15,900, and the basis is - 280, showing a bearish signal The basis weakened on February 3rd [6][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Cautious bearish: Crude oil, methanol, apple, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, container shipping to Europe [5] - Cautiously bullish: Stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, corn [5] Core View of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 due to factors such as the technology cycle, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [13] - Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank gold purchases [3][4] - The oil market's geopolitical risk premium has decreased, but the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027 [2][16] - The copper market may experience a phased correction due to supply disruptions and weakening downstream demand [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day - **International News:** US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair and has narrowed the candidates to four, with the final decision possibly announced next week. He also responded to the "kill line" phenomenon and blamed the Biden administration [7] - **Domestic News:** In 2026, China's macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand, including optimizing policies, formulating plans, and promoting high-tech industries [8] - **Industry News:** During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve water resource management and conservation, aiming for an irrigation water utilization coefficient of over 0.6 and a water-saving industry scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined, while the US dollar index also fell [11] - London gold and silver prices rose, while most base metals and agricultural products declined [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial:** The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, while the bond market has stabilized due to policy support and a cooling equity market [13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals:** Crude oil prices may be under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks and increased supply expectations. Methanol prices are expected to rise in the short term, while rubber prices may be volatile [16][17][18] - **Metals:** Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, while copper and zinc prices may experience a phased correction. Aluminum prices may be supported by low inventory in the long term [22][23][24][26] - **Black Metals:** Coking coal and steel prices may be strong in the short term, while iron ore prices are expected to remain stable [28][29][30] - **Agricultural Products:** Protein meal prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and a bumper harvest in South America. Vegetable oil prices may be supported by strong exports and policy expectations [31][32] - **Shipping Index:** Container shipping rates to Europe are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to increased supply and weak demand [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [6][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [6][8] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are rising, and Qingdao region inventories have recently rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao region inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [6][16][19] - **Import**: Import volume is rising [22] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production decreased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports are rebounding [25][28][31][34] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [8] Basis - The spot price is 15,550, and the basis is - 240, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on January 5th [6][37] Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on January 5th, and there is a US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [10][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in public fund sales regulations in China, the impact of U.S. military actions in Venezuela on oil prices, and the overall economic indicators reflecting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][3]. Group 1: Public Fund Sales Regulations - The new regulations for public fund sales have officially been implemented, easing the redemption fees for bond funds. Individual investors holding bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors for more than 30 days will be exempt from redemption fees, alleviating concerns about liquidity and trading characteristics of bond funds [1][3]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations during the holiday period. The U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, including the capture of President Maduro, are expected to lead to increased instability in the region, which may affect oil exports that were already under U.S. sanctions. Short-term oil prices are likely to trend upwards due to these developments, while medium-term impacts may arise from the anticipated reduction in Venezuelan oil production [2][12]. - The long-term outlook will depend on the control exerted by U.S. proxies in Venezuela, with the exit of Venezuelan production potentially allowing OPEC to increase output, leading to a subsequent decline in oil prices after an initial rise [2][12]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for February rose to 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone and an overall recovery in economic sentiment [1][3]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims were lower than expected, reinforcing economic resilience and reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in January, which in turn pushed long-term yields higher [3][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals are neutral with increasing supply, strong spot, decreasing domestic inventory, and high tire operating rate; the basis is -550 (spot price is 15100), indicating a bearish signal; the inventory situation is neutral with the SHFE inventory increasing week - on - week and decreasing year - on - year, and Qingdao area inventory increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year; the market is bullish as the price is running above the 20 - day line which is flat; the main positions are bearish with the main net short and increasing shorts; the expectation is to buy on dips as the market has support below [4] 3.2 Fundamentals and Data 3.2.1 Supply and Inventory - Supply is increasing. The SHFE inventory has a small increase, and the Qingdao area inventory has recently rebounded. The import volume has also recovered [4][14][17] 3.2.2 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on December 24th. The basis weakened on December 24th [8][35] 3.2.3 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have a seasonal rebound. Tire production decreased year - on - year, but the tire industry's exports have recovered [23][29][32] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with increasing supply, strong spot, decreasing domestic inventory, and high tire operating rate. The base - spread is -415 (spot price 14800), which is bearish. The inventory shows different trends in the exchange and Qingdao area, overall neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The main position is net short with a decrease in short positions, which is bearish. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Fundamentals Data - Supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral assessment [4]. - The price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on November 14 [8]. - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased [14][17]. - Import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production and export are at a record high in the same period [23][26][29][32]. Base - spread - The spot price is 14800, and the base - spread is -415, which is bearish. The base - spread strengthened on November 14 [4][35]. Multi - empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot being strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and tire operating rate at a high level. The market has support below, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot**: The spot price is 14,550, and the basis is -560, showing a bearish signal. The 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) spot price remained flat on November 10 [4][8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has been continuously de - stocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [4][14][17]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]. 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on November 10 [35]. 3.5 Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, and tire production and exports are at record highs for the same period [23][26][29][32].