交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货15100，基差-550 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with increasing supply, strong spot, decreasing domestic inventory, and high tire operating rate. The base - spread is -415 (spot price 14800), which is bearish. The inventory shows different trends in the exchange and Qingdao area, overall neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The main position is net short with a decrease in short positions, which is bearish. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Fundamentals Data - Supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral assessment [4]. - The price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on November 14 [8]. - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased [14][17]. - Import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production and export are at a record high in the same period [23][26][29][32]. Base - spread - The spot price is 14800, and the base - spread is -415, which is bearish. The base - spread strengthened on November 14 [4][35]. Multi - empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot being strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and tire operating rate at a high level. The market has support below, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot**: The spot price is 14,550, and the basis is -560, showing a bearish signal. The 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) spot price remained flat on November 10 [4][8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has been continuously de - stocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [4][14][17]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]. 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on November 10 [35]. 3.5 Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, and tire production and exports are at record highs for the same period [23][26][29][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is -830 with the spot price at 15050, showing a bearish signal. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Qingdao area has different trends, overall neutral. The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, also bearish. The market is expected to have support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Factors** - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Bearish factors are increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6] - **Inventory** - The inventory in the exchange has decreased recently, while the inventory in the Qingdao area has changed slightly [14][17] - **Import** - The import volume has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption** - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, tire production has reached a new high in the same period, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on September 17th [35] Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) decreased on September 17th [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [6][11] 2. Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended [6] 3. Summary according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. However, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market has support below, and short - long trading is advised [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is high. Auto production and sales are seasonally declining, but tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are rising [6][8][25][31][34] - **Price**: The spot price of 23 - year whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 1st, and the base difference strengthened on September 1st. The spot price is 14,950, and the base difference is - 910 [10][37] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories have changed slightly recently. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventories decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [6][16][19] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply and bearish domestic economic indicators [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution. Negative factors include increased supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with a neutral fundamental situation. The basis is - 1055, showing a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with the exchange inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory decreasing week - on - week but increasing year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The main position is net short with a reduction in shorts, showing a bearish signal. Short - long trading is expected due to market support below [4]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Demand**: Downstream consumption is high [6]. - **Price**: On August 25, the spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available. The basis weakened on August 25 [8][35]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have had small changes recently. The exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [4][14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month, and tire industry exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32]. 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is - 920 with the spot at 14800, showing a bearish signal. The exchange inventories increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, while Qingdao region inventories decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, remaining neutral. The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, also neutral. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, being bearish. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on August 21 [8]. 2.2 Inventory - Exchange inventories have changed slightly recently [14]. - Qingdao region inventories have changed slightly recently [17]. 2.3 Import - Import volume has rebounded [20]. 2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26]. - Tire production reached a new high for the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3. Basis - The basis strengthened on August 21 [35]. 4. Multi - empty Factors 4.1 Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6]. - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. 4.2 Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6]. - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is - 835 with the spot at 14800, indicating a bearish sign. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line flat, which is bearish. The main force has a net short position with short positions decreasing, also bearish. The market has support below, and short - long trading is expected [4]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on August 14 [8]. 2.2. Inventory - The exchange inventory has increased recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly [14][17]. 2.3. Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 2.4. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production reached a new high in the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][29][32]. 3. Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6]. 4. Basis - The basis strengthened on August 14 [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The spot price is 14,750, and the basis is - 1,100, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is relatively high. The tire production reached a new high in the same period, but the export of the tire industry declined, and automobile production and sales decreased seasonally [4][23][29][32]. - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 12, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was mentioned but no specific data was given [8]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly [14][17]. - **Import**: The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and the non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution; negative factors are increasing supply and the non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 35 with a spot price of 15100, also neutral [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, being neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high [6]. - **Spot Price** - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 28 [8]. - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [11]. - **Inventory** - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14]. - The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly recently [17]. - **Import** - The import volume has decreased seasonally [20]. - **Downstream Consumption** - Automobile production and sales have increased seasonally [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on July 28 [35]. 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - **Positive Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resistant spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6].