交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基差 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14850，基差-1055 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-920 偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线上运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现货价格 23年全乳胶，不可用于交割，8月21日现货价格上涨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-835 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 青岛保税区美元报价 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、青岛地区未季节性去库 • 风险点 • 世界经 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年8月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 多空因素及主要风险点 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14750，基差-1110 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、青岛地区未季节性去库 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution; negative factors are increasing supply and the non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 35 with a spot price of 15100, also neutral [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, being neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high [6]. - **Spot Price** - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 28 [8]. - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [11]. - **Inventory** - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14]. - The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly recently [17]. - **Import** - The import volume has decreased seasonally [20]. - **Downstream Consumption** - Automobile production and sales have increased seasonally [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on July 28 [35]. 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - **Positive Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resistant spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6].

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level, and market sentiment dominates short - term trading. The overall situation presents a mix of long and short factors [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Hints - The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and the tire operating rate is high, presenting a neutral situation. The basis is - 45 with a spot price of 14850, also neutral. The exchange inventory has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased week - on - week and year - on - year, remaining neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend, but the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. Short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline. The external environment is bearish [4][6]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, and tire production has reached a new high for the same period, but tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on July 21, and there is a US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone [8]. - **Basis**: The basis weakened on July 21 [35]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Bullish Factors**: High downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot strong, domestic inventory rising, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is - 110 (spot price is 14250), showing a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The main position is net short and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline, which are bullish factors [6]. - Supply is increasing and the external environment is bearish, which are bearish factors [6]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 14 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded [23][26]. - Tire production is at a record high for the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports are seasonally increasing [32]. Basis - The basis widened on July 14 [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot prices strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with a neutral view on supply, inventory, and other aspects; the base - point is neutral; the inventory shows different trends in different regions; the market is bullish on the disk, bearish on the main position, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [6]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is starting to increase [6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on June 30, and the US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [10]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao region's inventory has also changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao region's inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, but tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [25][31][34]. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [8]. - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8]. Basis - The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is - 35, showing a neutral state. The basis turned negative on June 30 [6][37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is neutral, with a spot price of 14,100 and a basis of 55 [4]. - Inventory conditions are mixed, with上期所库存周环比 decreasing and同比 decreasing, while Qingdao area inventory is increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year [4]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental data: Supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is high; basis is 55 with a spot price of 14,100; inventory shows different trends in different regions; the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat; the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [4]. - Basis: Neutral with a basis value of 55 and a spot price of 14,100 [4]. - Multiple and short factors and main risk points: Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resistant spot prices; bearish factors are increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6]. 2. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 27 [8]. 3. Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [14]. - Qingdao area inventory has changed little recently [17]. 4. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. 5. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 6. Basis - The basis turned positive on June 27 [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex with a mix of positive and negative factors. The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamental situation: Supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level, overall neutral; Spot price is 13850, basis is - 190, bearish; Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral; The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, bullish; The main position is net short and short positions are decreasing, bearish [4] 3.2 Fundamentals Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - **Price**: The spot price of 23 - year whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 26. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory has changed little recently, and Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32] 3.3 Basis - The basis on June 26 widened [35] 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - **Negative Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]