Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][13][14][16][17][19][20][22][23][25][26][28][29][31][32][34][35] Core Viewpoint - The overall view of natural rubber is bearish. Although there are some bullish factors, it has entered a bearish season. It is recommended to maintain a bearish mindset [4] Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The report does not provide specific daily prompt content [1][2] Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Spot is strong, Qingdao inventory is accumulating, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory has not changed much recently, while Qingdao area inventory is accumulating. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [4][14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has declined [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have declined, tire production has increased year - on - year, and tire industry exports have reached a new high for the same period [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on March 24th, with a spot price of 16,100 and a basis of - 125, showing a bearish situation [4][35] Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: High downstream consumption, spot price resistance to decline, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to rising crude oil prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber, considering that the Middle - East situation has triggered bullish sentiment, but the natural rubber market has entered a bearish season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are as follows: the spot is relatively strong; the inventory in Qingdao is accumulating, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, which is neutral. The basis is - 145 with the spot price at 16000, which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is neutral. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on March 23. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is mentioned but no value is given [8] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently. The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. The import volume has declined. The production and sales of automobiles have declined, while the tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [14][17][20][23][29][32] - **Base Difference**: The basis weakened on March 23 [35] 3.3 Multiple - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to rising crude oil prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber, considering that although the Middle - East situation has triggered bullish sentiment, natural rubber has entered a bearish season [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with strong spot prices, inventory accumulation in Qingdao, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bearish with a spot price of 16,250 and a basis of - 150. The inventory situation is neutral, with the SHFE inventory increasing week - on - week and decreasing year - on - year, and the Qingdao inventory increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year. The market trend is neutral with the 20 - day line upward but the price running below it. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish. The overall view is bearish [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (not for delivery) decreased on March 18 [8] - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [11] Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently [14] - The Qingdao area inventory is accumulating [17] Import - The import volume has declined [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have declined [23][26] - Tire production has increased year - on - year [29] - The tire industry's exports have rebounded [32] Basis - The basis weakened on March 18 [35] Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption [6] - Resilient spot prices [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] - Rising synthetic rubber prices [6] Bearish Factors - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6] - Trade frictions [6] - Higher crude oil prices leading to reduced consumption [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The market has entered a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] - The fundamentals are neutral with strong spot prices, inventory accumulation in Qingdao, and high tire operating rates [6] - The basis is bullish with a spot price of 16,700 and a basis of 145 [6] - The inventory situation is neutral with an increase in SHFE inventory week - on - week and a decrease year - on - year, and an increase in Qingdao inventory both week - on - week and year - on - year [6] - The market trend on the disk is neutral with the 20 - day line upward and the price running below the 20 - day line [6] - The main positions are bullish with the main net long and a reduction in long positions [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided 2. Fundamental Data - Spot prices of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on March 5 [10] - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [16] - Qingdao area inventory is accumulating [19] - Import volume has rebounded [22] - Automobile production and sales have declined [25][28] - Tire production has increased year - on - year [31] - Tire industry exports have rebounded [34] 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - Bearish factors: bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] 4. Basis - The basis strengthened on March 5 [37]

Market Overview - As of February 25, 2026, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index (H11057) increased by 1.01%, with notable gains from Yuntianhua (up 10.01%), Hebang Biotechnology (up 9.92%), Chuanfa Longmang (up 7.76%), Xingfa Group (up 5.29%), and Shengquan Group (up 4.65%) [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) rose by 0.47%, closing at 1.06 yuan, with a turnover rate of 9.65% during the trading session and a total capital inflow of 1.153 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days [1] Key News - The main crude oil futures on INE fell by 1.60 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.33%, settling at 488.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also saw declines, with high-sulfur fuel oil down by 10.00 yuan/ton (0.34%) at 2943.00 yuan/ton, and low-sulfur fuel oil down by 41.00 yuan/ton (1.18%) at 3436.00 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for natural rubber rose by 2.10%, while the main contract for No. 20 rubber increased by 2.34%, with Shanghai spot prices adjusting to around 16,300 yuan/ton. The market anticipates continued strong fluctuations in rubber prices due to rising external prices and crude oil [1] Institutional Insights - Southwest Securities suggests that the global chemical industry is at the beginning of a new prosperity cycle. Chinese chemical companies have strengthened their profit foundations and elasticity over recent years. Looking ahead to 2026, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting phase and minimal recession risks, and China prioritizing domestic demand, supply and demand improvements in the chemical industry are expected to exceed expectations [3] Popular ETFs - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry for 32.43%. This positioning allows for participation in the profit recovery of downstream chemical products. The industry narrative is expected to improve in the medium to long term due to structural adjustments in supply and demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [4] - Cautiously bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [4] 2. Core观点 of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in January 2026 far exceeded expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. Fed officials' statements and market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed. Indonesia plans to significantly cut nickel production, which will impact the global nickel supply structure. The domestic futures market had a mixed performance at night. For different commodities, their market conditions are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policy, and macro - economic data [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News on the Day International News - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January 2026, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages rose 0.4% month - on - month. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been postponed from June to July. Trump called for significant rate cuts [1][5] Domestic News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The base period for CPI and PPI data was changed in 2025, and the impact of the base - period change was small [6] Industry News - China successfully carried out important tests in the manned lunar exploration project, achieving a significant breakthrough [7] 3.2. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 was almost flat, the European STOXX50 rose slightly, the FTSE China A50 futures fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.80%, London gold and silver prices rose significantly, and most LME metals prices increased. ICE 11 - number sugar fell, while ICE 2 - number cotton rose, and CBOT commodities had mixed performances [8] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: The US three major indexes declined slightly, and the previous trading day's index showed small fluctuations. The building materials sector led the rise, and the communication sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but potential disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday need to be watched out for [3][9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds had mixed performances. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell to 1.79%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repo injection of 4035 billion yuan. After the US non - farm data, the Fed rate - cut expectations were postponed, and US Treasury yields rose. China's economic data showed a recovery in consumption demand. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize. Caution is advised before the holiday [10] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Iran and the US held indirect talks, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports may decline in February [11] - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected import volume in the future is known [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. Domestic and some Thai production areas are in the off - season, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The all - steel tire production is stable. Risk control and position reduction are recommended before the Spring Festival [13] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations and macro factors. Positions need to be gradually controlled before the holiday [14] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass inventory increased, and soda ash inventory increased slightly. Glass supply and demand are being repaired, and soda ash supply is slightly shrinking. Positions need to be controlled before the holiday [15] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at high levels. After the US non - farm data, the rate - cut expectations cooled down, and precious metals prices dropped. In the long term, factors supporting precious metals remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [2][16][17] - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Copper prices may enter an adjustment stage in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be monitored [3][18] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices oscillated at night. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need attention [19] - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum price is at a high level. The aluminum plant operating rate is rising, but the aluminum - water ratio is decreasing, and the downstream enterprise operating rate is falling. Aluminum ingot inventory is accumulating. Although the short - term industry situation is weak, there is support in the long term [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production decreased. Demand also declined. Social inventory decreased. The market sentiment weakened, and the futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities after volatility reduction and be cautious [21] Black - Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. Mine production decreased before the Spring Festival, and Mongolian coal imports decreased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke has limited growth, and the downstream replenishment is almost completed. After the holiday, factors such as iron - water output and mine operations need to be focused on [22] - **Steel**: As the Spring Festival approaches, steel production decreased slightly, and supply is expected to increase later. Steel inventories increased, and demand from the construction industry weakened. The domestic policy environment is still good, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23] - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, mainly from Brazil. Port inventory increased, and domestic iron - concentrate production decreased. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly. Steel mills' demand for iron ore will be based on demand. The iron ore price will oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices rose. Brazil's soybean harvest rate increased, and the USDA raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production. Although the data is bearish, the market has digested it. Domestic bean meal prices followed the foreign market, but future supply pressure may still exist [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil prices fell, while rapeseed oil prices rose slightly. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased, exports increased, and production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the northern hemisphere is in a production - increasing cycle. The domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and imports are high. The price is expected to oscillate [28] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate is decreasing, and textile mills' replenishment is coming to an end. There is still some demand support, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the direct - subsidy policy [29] - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices continued to be weak. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and the spot price is under pressure, which will continue to affect the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the daily slaughter volume of group enterprises and downstream slaughter volume on prices [30] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 1.42%. The spot freight rate is expected to be stable, and the market is expected to oscillate before the holiday. After the holiday, the verification of photovoltaic exports and the implementation of price - increase letters need attention [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [9] Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday. The overall situation is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market sentiment is cooling down, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. Tire operating rates are at a high level, but automobile production and sales are declining. Tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are recovering [4][23][29] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories have changed little recently, while Qingdao area inventories have rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [4][14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on February 9, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8][11] Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Negative domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 16,100, and the basis is - 145, showing a bearish signal. The basis weakened on February 9 [4][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [6][11] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment is cooling, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market sentiment is cooling, and it may fluctuate within a range before the holiday [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand shows mixed signals. The tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are rebounding, but automobile production and sales are falling [6][25][31] 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory has not changed much recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area has rebounded The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao area increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19] 3.2.3 Import - The import volume of natural rubber has rebounded [22] 3.2.4 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on February 3rd The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also part of the spot price information [10] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 15,900, and the basis is - 280, showing a bearish signal The basis weakened on February 3rd [6][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Cautious bearish: Crude oil, methanol, apple, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, container shipping to Europe [5] - Cautiously bullish: Stock index (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, corn [5] Core View of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 due to factors such as the technology cycle, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [13] - Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank gold purchases [3][4] - The oil market's geopolitical risk premium has decreased, but the demand for OPEC+ crude oil is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027 [2][16] - The copper market may experience a phased correction due to supply disruptions and weakening downstream demand [2][23] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day - **International News:** US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair and has narrowed the candidates to four, with the final decision possibly announced next week. He also responded to the "kill line" phenomenon and blamed the Biden administration [7] - **Domestic News:** In 2026, China's macro policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand, including optimizing policies, formulating plans, and promoting high-tech industries [8] - **Industry News:** During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will improve water resource management and conservation, aiming for an irrigation water utilization coefficient of over 0.6 and a water-saving industry scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined, while the US dollar index also fell [11] - London gold and silver prices rose, while most base metals and agricultural products declined [11] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial:** The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, while the bond market has stabilized due to policy support and a cooling equity market [13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals:** Crude oil prices may be under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks and increased supply expectations. Methanol prices are expected to rise in the short term, while rubber prices may be volatile [16][17][18] - **Metals:** Precious metals are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, while copper and zinc prices may experience a phased correction. Aluminum prices may be supported by low inventory in the long term [22][23][24][26] - **Black Metals:** Coking coal and steel prices may be strong in the short term, while iron ore prices are expected to remain stable [28][29][30] - **Agricultural Products:** Protein meal prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and a bumper harvest in South America. Vegetable oil prices may be supported by strong exports and policy expectations [31][32] - **Shipping Index:** Container shipping rates to Europe are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to increased supply and weak demand [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [6][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [6][8] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are rising, and Qingdao region inventories have recently rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao region inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [6][16][19] - **Import**: Import volume is rising [22] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production decreased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports are rebounding [25][28][31][34] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [8] Basis - The spot price is 15,550, and the basis is - 240, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on January 5th [6][37] Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on January 5th, and there is a US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [10][13]