Core Viewpoint - The fiscal and tax system reform during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is essential for addressing current fiscal constraints and advancing the modernization of national governance, aiming to inject strong momentum into Chinese-style modernization through budget reform, tax optimization, central-local relationship restructuring, and comprehensive debt management [4]. Group 1: Achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasized establishing a modern fiscal system, focusing on accelerating the establishment of a modern fiscal system and improving the modern tax system, with progress made in budget reform, tax reform, and central-local relationship adjustments, despite facing challenges such as sluggish fiscal revenue growth and local debt pressure [5]. Group 2: Key Directions for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on four main areas for fiscal and tax reform: performance-based budgeting, modernization of the tax system, central-local collaboration, and comprehensive debt management, addressing new challenges such as fiscal revenue growth and local government land finance transformation [6][7]. Group 3: Performance-Based Budgeting - Emphasizing the need for increased public budget expenditure and improved expenditure effectiveness, the next phase of budget reform will focus on enhancing budget performance management to optimize the allocation and use of fiscal resources [7]. Group 4: Modernization of the Tax System - The direction of tax reform during the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes aligning tax reforms with industrial structure adjustments, improving the direct tax system, and enhancing the local tax system, particularly through advancing consumption tax reform [7]. Group 5: Central-Local Collaboration - To address the imbalance between central and local fiscal powers, increasing local fiscal autonomy is crucial, which can be achieved through tax reforms and enhancing consumption tax and property tax reforms to alleviate pressure on central finances [7]. Group 6: Comprehensive Debt Management - Following the large-scale issuance of local debt since 2015, there is a need for a unified debt supervision framework to manage the risks associated with hidden debts and to accelerate the transformation of financing platforms, which is essential for establishing a differentiated pricing system for market investors [7].

Group 1: Fiscal and Tax Reform Objectives - The core objective of the fiscal and tax reform during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to address current fiscal constraints and promote long-term governance modernization[1] - The reform aims to enhance resource potential through budget system innovation, optimize distribution through tax system reform, and improve governance vitality by restructuring central-local relations[1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" laid a foundation for these reforms, highlighting the need for a modern fiscal system and achieving progress in budget and tax reforms[2] Group 2: Key Directions for Reform - The reform will focus on four main areas: budget performance, tax modernization, central-local collaboration, and comprehensive debt management[2] - Budget performance emphasizes increasing public budget expenditure and optimizing spending effectiveness, addressing issues like low completion rates and mismatched revenue and expenditure[3] - Tax modernization will involve aligning tax reforms with industrial structure adjustments, enhancing the direct tax system, and advancing consumption tax reforms[3] Group 3: Central-Local Financial Relations - The current imbalance in financial power and responsibilities between central and local governments necessitates increased local financial autonomy through tax reforms[3] - In 2024, the central government's fiscal expenditure accounted for 14.3%, while local governments accounted for 85.7%, indicating a significant reliance on local governments for social services and infrastructure[3] - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments, with a projected total of CNY 103,415 billion in 2025, highlighting the need for balanced fiscal relations[3] Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - Since the large-scale issuance of local government bonds in 2015, the expansion of government debt has become a key feature of fiscal policy, necessitating a unified debt management framework[3] - The introduction of a comprehensive debt management system aims to address both explicit and implicit debt risks, with measures including the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts[3] - The ongoing transformation of financing platforms is crucial to mitigate the risks associated with hidden debts, with over 60% of financing platforms reportedly exiting by mid-2025[3] Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, insufficient local investment momentum, and unexpected market fluctuations due to unforeseen events[3]