投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年8月20日 | | 不锈钢 | SS2510 | 盘面震荡走弱,成本支撑需求仍有拖累 | 主力参考12800-13500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 原油 | SC2510 | 俄乌问题缓和预期进一步增加,远期供应宽松拖累油价偏弱运 行 | 建议偏空思路对待,跨月建议逢低做扩10-11/12 月差, WTI下方支撑给到[60,61],布伦特在 [63,64],SC在[470,480];期权端等待波动放 | | | | | | 大后做扩机会,仅供参考 | | | 尿素 | UR2601 | 消息面推升隐含波动率,后市需跟踪出口集港变化情况 | 盘面反弹后,短期看多需谨慎,若后续无更多实质 利好驱动则转向逢高空,短期上方阻力位给到 1850-1870 | | | PX | PX2511 | 供需压力整体不大且需求端预期好转,PX低位存支撑 | 短期在6600-6900震荡对待;PX-SC价差低位做 | | | | | | 扩为主 | | | PTA | TA2601 | 低加工费但成本端支撑有限,短期PT ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the "Tez Meeting", Trump called Putin, indicating the start of arrangements for a tri - party meeting. There are still optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks, causing gold and silver prices to decline slightly. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate while waiting for the central bank's annual meeting [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are hard to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Gold and silver prices are still likely to rise rather than fall [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce. The basis was - 3.28, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 300 kg to 36345 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce. The basis was - 31, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3129 kg to 1138426 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above it. The main net long position decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that with Trump's inauguration, the world is in turmoil, and the shift from inflation to recession expectations makes it difficult for gold prices to fall. The gap between the new US government's policy expectations and reality continues to be verified, keeping gold prices high and likely to rise [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [12]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 10:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of building a sports - strong country during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. - 12:50: Ellis Connolly, the head of payment policy at the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat. - 20:30: The US will release data on new housing starts and building permits for July, and Canada will release its July CPI. - 22:00: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in an interview on a Bloomberg TV program. - The next day at 02:10: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will discuss promoting new technologies in the banking system at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Prices**: Various gold and silver futures and spot prices showed different trends, such as the increase in Shanghai gold 2510 by 0.32% and the increase in Shanghai silver 2510 by 0.54% [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.37 basis points to 4.332% [4][5]. - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index rose 0.31% to 98.16 [4][5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position decreased by 1.67% to 622,420, the short position decreased by 3.02% to 467,366, and the net position increased by 2.66% to 155,054 [29]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position increased by 0.58% to 1,095,982, the short position increased by 0.64% to 1,004,870, and the net position increased by 0.01% to 91,112 [32]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, and silver ETF positions increased significantly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts fluctuated and were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][39][41].