Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Moderately bullish, suggesting selling put options on MO2509 with an execution price around 6600 when the price is high [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Suggesting short - term wait - and - see [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, constructing a bull spread strategy through call options when the price is low; for silver, maintaining a low - long approach or constructing a bull spread option strategy [2]. - **Shipping Index (EC - Europe Line)**: Bearish, suggesting holding short positions in the 10 - contract [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling opportunities for steel contracts in the 3380 - 3400 range and short - selling iron ore when the price is high [2]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Various strategies such as short - selling when high, low - long, or wait - and - see are recommended according to different metal conditions [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Bearish, suggesting a short - term bearish approach and expanding the spread between the 10 - 11/12 contracts when the price is low [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand and price trends, including short - selling, range trading, and constructing spread strategies [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Long - term bullish for meal, suggesting long - term multi - position layout; bearish for corn, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Bullish for the near - term of pigs, with enhanced support; bearish for eggs, suggesting holding short positions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand situation, such as short - selling when the price rebounds for sugar and holding short positions for cotton [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Bearish for glass and soda ash, suggesting holding short positions; wait - and - see for rubber and industrial silicon [2]. - **New Energy**: Wait - and - see for polysilicon; cautious wait - and - see for lithium carbonate, with a suggestion of lightly testing long positions at low prices in the short - term [2]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their price trends, supply - demand changes, and market sentiment [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market - **Equity Index**: The TMT sector is booming, and the equity index has risen sharply with increased trading volume. However, the improvement of corporate profits needs to be verified by mid - year report data [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The real stabilization of the bond market requires signals from the central bank to protect liquidity and the peak - turning of the stock market, and the timing is uncertain [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Strategies such as constructing spread strategies and low - long are recommended [2]. Commodity Market - **Shipping Index**: The EC (Europe Line) index is in a weak oscillation, and short positions in the 10 - contract are recommended to be held [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Steel prices have fallen below support, and iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are also under pressure. Short - selling strategies are recommended [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are in a narrow - range oscillation or under pressure, with different trading strategies recommended according to their specific situations [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by supply expectations, and chemical product prices are influenced by supply - demand and cost factors, with corresponding trading strategies provided [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand situations, and trading strategies such as long - term multi - position layout, short - selling when the price is high, and holding short positions are recommended [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash are in a weak market, while rubber and industrial silicon need further observation [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate markets are affected by various factors, and wait - and - see or cautious trading strategies are recommended [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the "Tez Meeting", Trump called Putin, indicating the start of arrangements for a tri - party meeting. There are still optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks, causing gold and silver prices to decline slightly. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate while waiting for the central bank's annual meeting [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are hard to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Gold and silver prices are still likely to rise rather than fall [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce. The basis was - 3.28, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 300 kg to 36345 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce. The basis was - 31, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3129 kg to 1138426 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above it. The main net long position decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that with Trump's inauguration, the world is in turmoil, and the shift from inflation to recession expectations makes it difficult for gold prices to fall. The gap between the new US government's policy expectations and reality continues to be verified, keeping gold prices high and likely to rise [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [12]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 10:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of building a sports - strong country during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. - 12:50: Ellis Connolly, the head of payment policy at the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat. - 20:30: The US will release data on new housing starts and building permits for July, and Canada will release its July CPI. - 22:00: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in an interview on a Bloomberg TV program. - The next day at 02:10: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will discuss promoting new technologies in the banking system at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Prices**: Various gold and silver futures and spot prices showed different trends, such as the increase in Shanghai gold 2510 by 0.32% and the increase in Shanghai silver 2510 by 0.54% [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.37 basis points to 4.332% [4][5]. - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index rose 0.31% to 98.16 [4][5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position decreased by 1.67% to 622,420, the short position decreased by 3.02% to 467,366, and the net position increased by 2.66% to 155,054 [29]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position increased by 0.58% to 1,095,982, the short position increased by 0.64% to 1,004,870, and the net position increased by 0.01% to 91,112 [32]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, and silver ETF positions increased significantly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts fluctuated and were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][39][41].