Core Insights - The report anticipates a large-cap style preference for April, with a balanced valuation style and a focus on traditional industries [1][2][3] - Key sectors to focus on include transportation, power equipment and new energy, coal, utilities, banking, pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, particularly those that are not adversely affected by rising energy prices or are relatively undervalued [1][2][3] Style Rotation - The style rotation indicates a preference for large-cap stocks, with a balanced valuation style and a focus on traditional industries [2][12] - The report highlights that the performance of large-cap stocks is expected to be resilient due to improving PPI trends, which support earnings growth, particularly in traditional sectors [29][31] - April is historically a strong month for the correlation between stock prices and earnings, suggesting that large-cap stocks with strong earnings certainty may outperform [31][45] Industry Allocation - The report emphasizes two principles for industry allocation: sectors that are not adversely affected by rising energy prices and those that are relatively undervalued [2][3] - The top ten attractive sectors based on the industry scoring table include transportation, coal, utilities, banking, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, power equipment, telecommunications, basic chemicals, and electronics [2][3] - Specific focus areas include transportation benefiting from Middle Eastern conflicts, banks with lower sensitivity to geopolitical and oil price fluctuations, and pharmaceuticals experiencing upward trends in innovation [2][3][12] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that meet at least one of the criteria of being unaffected by rising energy prices or being relatively undervalued [3][12] - The report identifies transportation (oil shipping), new energy, and traditional energy sectors as key areas of interest, particularly in the context of rising oil prices and energy security [2][3][12] - The report also highlights the potential for cyclical commodities, particularly basic chemicals and agriculture, to experience upward momentum [2][3][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are expected to remain stable above the 20 - day moving average, fluctuating within the range of $5000 - 5250 with narrowing volatility. Short - term out - of - the - money call options above 1200 yuan can be held [1]. - Silver prices continue to be weakly volatile under multiple factors, testing the support of the 60 - day moving average. The silver price range is $80 - 90, and out - of - the money call options above 23000 yuan can be held [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are suppressed by the reversal of macro - financial attributes and demand expectations. They generally follow the weak volatility of gold and silver. Platinum prices fluctuate within the range of $2000 - 2200, and palladium prices fluctuate within the range of $1590 - 1690 [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1148.10 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - AG2606 contract closed at 22062 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.87% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 564.65 on March 12, down 0.16% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 416.60 yuan/gram on March 12, down 1.80% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5084.10 on March 12, down 1.93% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 83.96 on March 12, down 2.28% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2130.70 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 1.96% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1638.00 on March 12, down 0.64% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 5077.94 on March 12, down 2.02% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 83.78 on March 12, down 2.27% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2150.00 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 2.49% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1618.90 on March 12, down 0.86% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1146.26 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 21851 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.67% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 553 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.69% from the previous day [1]. Spreads - The spread of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.84 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The spread of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 211 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The spread of London gold - COMEX gold was - 9.13 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 75.60% [1]. - The spread of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.37 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 21.70% [1]. Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 60.56 on March 12, up 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 52.04 on March 12, up 0.54% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.30 on March 12, down 1.33% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 12, up 1.67% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.27 on March 12, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76 on March 12, up 3.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.89 on March 12, up 2.2% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.74 on March 12, up 0.48% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8821 on March 12, up 0.08% from the previous day [1]. Inventories - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105420 on March 12, up 0.49% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 309974 (in ten thousand) on March 12, up 23.07% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 32656407 on March 12, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 344324824 on March 12, down 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipt was 16697449 on March 12, down 0.17% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipt was 78610869 on March 12, up 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF holding was 1076 on March 12, down 0.13% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holding was 15539 on March 12, with no change from the previous day [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Moderately bullish, suggesting selling put options on MO2509 with an execution price around 6600 when the price is high [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Suggesting short - term wait - and - see [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, constructing a bull spread strategy through call options when the price is low; for silver, maintaining a low - long approach or constructing a bull spread option strategy [2]. - **Shipping Index (EC - Europe Line)**: Bearish, suggesting holding short positions in the 10 - contract [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling opportunities for steel contracts in the 3380 - 3400 range and short - selling iron ore when the price is high [2]. - **Coking Coal, Coke**: Bearish, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Various strategies such as short - selling when high, low - long, or wait - and - see are recommended according to different metal conditions [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Bearish, suggesting a short - term bearish approach and expanding the spread between the 10 - 11/12 contracts when the price is low [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand and price trends, including short - selling, range trading, and constructing spread strategies [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Long - term bullish for meal, suggesting long - term multi - position layout; bearish for corn, suggesting short - selling when the price is high [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Bullish for the near - term of pigs, with enhanced support; bearish for eggs, suggesting holding short positions [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand situation, such as short - selling when the price rebounds for sugar and holding short positions for cotton [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Bearish for glass and soda ash, suggesting holding short positions; wait - and - see for rubber and industrial silicon [2]. - **New Energy**: Wait - and - see for polysilicon; cautious wait - and - see for lithium carbonate, with a suggestion of lightly testing long positions at low prices in the short - term [2]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their price trends, supply - demand changes, and market sentiment [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market - **Equity Index**: The TMT sector is booming, and the equity index has risen sharply with increased trading volume. However, the improvement of corporate profits needs to be verified by mid - year report data [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The real stabilization of the bond market requires signals from the central bank to protect liquidity and the peak - turning of the stock market, and the timing is uncertain [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Strategies such as constructing spread strategies and low - long are recommended [2]. Commodity Market - **Shipping Index**: The EC (Europe Line) index is in a weak oscillation, and short positions in the 10 - contract are recommended to be held [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Steel prices have fallen below support, and iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are also under pressure. Short - selling strategies are recommended [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are in a narrow - range oscillation or under pressure, with different trading strategies recommended according to their specific situations [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by supply expectations, and chemical product prices are influenced by supply - demand and cost factors, with corresponding trading strategies provided [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand situations, and trading strategies such as long - term multi - position layout, short - selling when the price is high, and holding short positions are recommended [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash are in a weak market, while rubber and industrial silicon need further observation [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate markets are affected by various factors, and wait - and - see or cautious trading strategies are recommended [2].

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 虽然今年4月美国国会通过了2 0 2 5财年预算决议，但该决议并不具有法律效力也不能直接拨款。预计今年预算法案需要在9月3 0 日前通过，否则国会则需通过临时拨款法案以避免政府停摆风险。特朗普减税法案今年若落地，美国财政赤字压力将进一步攀 升。市场对于财政压力的担忧以及对于通胀风险的担忧将持续导致美债利率中期限溢价以及通胀预期部分高位运行，进而1 0年 期美债利率中枢或一段时间在4 . 0%以上，后续美债利率下行空间的打开或需观察特朗普政策、美国经济承压状况和美联储表 态。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月1 0日美国众议院以2 1 6票对2 1 4票通过了参议院修订的2 0 2 5财年预算决议。 预算决议是国会内部指导文件，设定了政府在特定时期内的财政收支预期，不具有法律效力、无需总统签署和直接拨款。只要 参众两院通过相同的预算决议，该年度决议即被采纳。预算决议主要为后续立法确定财政方向和规模，以及为国会内部的预算 协调和审议提供基础。按照《1 9 7 4年国会预算法》，预算决议应在4月1 5日前通过，但实际较多财年未有决议通过。若无新决 议通过，前一决议的支出限额和收入下限会自动在剩 ...