Key Points AstraZeneca's shares jumped after Pfizer's announcement of a major deal with the Trump administration. Pfizer's good news could benefit AstraZeneca, too. 10 stocks we like better than AstraZeneca Plc › Shares of AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) have jumped more than 10% this week. On Monday, the British drugmaker reported positive results from a clinical study of Enhertu in treating HER2-positive early breast cancer. However, the main reason for AstraZeneca's big gain was Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE) a ...

【导读】 费城半导体指数和英伟达等板块或公司创历史新高 中国基金报记者 储是 美股震荡收涨，道琼斯指数创新高。辉瑞与特朗普达成谈判，医药制药板块走高。半导体板 块延续涨势，英伟达创新高。国际金价反弹冲高，再回3800点位上方。 美股震荡收涨 道琼斯指数创新高 因美国政府关门危机，美股9月震荡收涨。 9月，道琼斯指数累计上涨1.87%，标普500指数累计上涨3.53%，纳斯达克指数上涨 5.61%。 有分析指出，随着美国政府停摆的可能性上升，股市震荡加剧，市场担忧停摆会持续多久， 以及关键经济数据可能延迟发布将如何影响美联储即将到来的利率决策。 尽管政府关门通常不会显著推动市场波动，但这一次可能不同，因为投资者已对劳动力市场 放缓、滞胀风险和偏高的股票估值保持警惕。 英伟达再续新高 半导体板块延续涨势 美国科技巨头涨跌不一。英伟达上涨2.6%，报收于186.58美元/股。公司最新市值为4.542 万亿美元，再次创下新高。 微软、特斯拉、苹果分别上涨0.65%、0.34%、0.08%。谷歌、亚马逊、脸书分别下跌 0.33%、1.17%、1.21%。 美东9月30日（周二），美股三大指数集体收涨，道指收于历史新高。 ...

Core Insights - The global laptop market is showing signs of recovery despite geopolitical factors and tariff uncertainties, with a projected annual shipment increase of approximately 2.2% in 2023, surpassing 180 million units [2][6]. - Southeast Asia is emerging as a key manufacturing base for laptops, driven by investments from major brands like Dell and Apple, with Vietnam's production capacity expected to reach 13.5% of the global share by 2025 [5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The laptop market is benefiting from zero tariffs on Southeast Asian imports to the U.S., leading brands to increase shipments in anticipation of demand [2]. - The second quarter of 2023 saw a significant shipment increase of 9.5% due to factors such as U.S. tariff exemptions and a surge in demand from the Chinese market driven by subsidy policies [2]. - The third quarter is expected to maintain positive growth, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5% as brands and suppliers continue to support the market through subsidies [2]. Group 2: Regional Manufacturing Developments - Southeast Asia has become a primary production base outside of China, with Vietnam and Thailand leading the way in laptop manufacturing due to favorable policies and investments [5]. - Vietnam's laptop production capacity is anticipated to grow rapidly, reaching 13.5% of the global market share by 2025, supported by major manufacturers like Compal and Wistron [5]. - Thailand is also expanding its production capabilities, with a projected capacity share of 6.7% by 2025, driven by HP's initiatives and local government incentives [5]. - Other regions such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil are also seeing increased local manufacturing efforts, with an expected global capacity share of 3.7% by 2025 due to local production requirements [5].

14项光伏豁免纳入178项整体评估 历经多轮延长现关键节点 据悉，此次进入意见征集范围的14项光伏相关豁免，源于2024年USTR对华301调查 "四年审查" 工作。2024年9月18日，USTR通过《联邦公报》公告正 式新增该14项豁免，涵盖太阳能制造设备、硅片制造设备及硅片搬运设备，如硅生长炉、多晶硅铸锭炉、硅片切割机、金刚石绳锯等太阳能制造设 备，初始有效期设定为2024年1月1日至2025年5月31日。 （来源：光伏见闻） 9月16日，美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）发布重磅公告，就对华301调查项下178项关税豁免是否延长至2025年11月29日之后公开征求意见。其中，涉 及光伏领域的14项特定太阳能制造设备豁免成为行业关注焦点。 USTR将对178项豁免逐案开展评估，14项光伏设备豁免与其他豁免适用统一评估标准，核心围绕四大维度：一是豁免涵盖的太阳能制造设备在非中国 来源地的可获得性，即美国市场能否从其他国家稳定采购同类设备；二是相关企业为从美国本土或第三国采购该类设备所做的实际努力；三是企业是 否需要额外时间推进采购来源从中国转移；四是进一步延长豁免是否可能推动该类光伏设备采购来源向非中国地区转移 ...

Group 1 - The actual effective tariff rate in the U.S. is estimated to be around 9%-10%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of approximately 18%, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate profits is overstated [1][2] - The report highlights that the discrepancy between theoretical and actual tariff rates is primarily due to policy exemptions rather than transshipment practices, suggesting a deliberate choice by policymakers to maintain lower tariffs [3] - The report notes that the current trade war situation is more favorable for risk assets and provides the Federal Reserve with room to lower interest rates amid a weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The report identifies a significant gap between the announced tariff levels and the actual effective rates, with the theoretical effective tariff rate estimated at 17%-18%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, while the actual rate is around 10% [2] - Policy exemptions are cited as the main reason for the lower effective tariff rates, with a high approval rate of 61% for tariff exemption applications submitted by companies between 2018 and 2021 [3] - The analysis of tariff impacts shows that the anticipated "tariff-flation" has not materialized, with the annualized growth rate of the tariff basket's prices remaining moderate at 2% [4] Group 3 - The report indicates that U.S. companies engaged in significant import stockpiling before the tariffs took effect, which may lead to a potential spike in goods inflation as these inventories are depleted [4] - Evidence supporting the notion that companies are absorbing tariff costs by compressing their profits is limited, as profit margins for the S&P 500 index remain stable [4]

Core Viewpoint - The actual effective tariff rate in the U.S. is only around 9%-10%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of approximately 18%, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate profits is overstated [1][3][5] Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights a significant discrepancy between the theoretical effective tariff rate (17%-18%) and the actual effective rate (around 10%), suggesting that the real impact of the trade war is less severe than perceived [5][6] - The primary reason for this discrepancy is attributed to policy exemptions and carveouts rather than transshipment practices, which are believed to have a limited effect [6][7] - The "tariff-flation" effect has not materialized as expected, with the annualized growth rate of the tariff basket's prices remaining moderate at 2% [8] Group 2: Inventory and Profitability Concerns - U.S. companies have engaged in significant import stockpiling prior to the tariffs, with excess imports equivalent to 5-6 months of normal import levels, indicating that inventory buffers are nearing depletion [9] - There is limited evidence to support the notion that companies are absorbing tariff costs by compressing their profits, as profit margins for the S&P 500 remain stable [9]

Core Insights - The actual impact of the trade war on the US economy is significantly less severe than commonly perceived, with the effective tariff rate estimated at only 9%-10%, compared to a theoretical rate of about 18% [1][2] - The lower-than-expected tariff impact is primarily due to policy exemptions rather than transshipment practices, indicating a deliberate choice by policymakers [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Rates and Their Implications - The theoretical effective tariff rate based on announced tariffs is estimated to be 17%-18%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, while the actual effective rate is around 10% [2] - The discrepancy between theoretical and actual tariff rates suggests that the trade war's real effects are not as alarming as they appear [2] Group 2: Factors Mitigating Tariff Impact - Policy exemptions (Carveouts) are identified as a key reason for the lower effective tariff rate, with a significant number of exemption applications approved historically [4] - Transshipment activities, while present, have a limited effect on reducing overall tariff rates, contributing only about 1 percentage point to the effective rate reduction [4] Group 3: Future Risks and Market Reactions - US companies have built up significant inventory buffers prior to the implementation of tariffs, which are now nearing depletion, potentially leading to increased inflation in the coming months [5] - Evidence supporting the notion that companies are absorbing tariff costs by compressing profits is limited, as profit margins for the S&P 500 remain stable [6]

Export Data - In August, exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, and below the Wind consensus expectation of 5.9%[3] - Month-on-month, exports were flat with a 0.1% increase, indicating a stagnation in export value compared to the previous month[3] - The decline in export momentum is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and signs of demand exhaustion from earlier periods[3] Trade with the US and Other Regions - Exports to the US fell by 33.1% year-on-year, a further decline of 11.4 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month decrease of 11.8%[4] - The share of exports to the US has decreased from 12% to 10% in the second half of the year[4] - Exports to non-US regions showed significant growth, with the EU growing by 10.4% and ASEAN by 22.5% in August[4] Product Categories - Labor-intensive product exports saw a significant decline, with categories like bags, clothing, and footwear experiencing drops of -14.9%, -10.1%, and -17.1% respectively, collectively dragging down overall export growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - In contrast, electromechanical products grew by 7.6%, contributing 4.5 percentage points to export growth, while high-tech products increased by 8.9%, adding 2.1 percentage points[5] Import Data - Imports grew by only 1.3% year-on-year in August, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to low prices of bulk commodities[6] - Energy imports continued to decline, with coal, crude oil, and natural gas imports down by -35.9%, -15.1%, and -8.4% respectively[6] - Agricultural imports turned negative again, with a decline driven by reduced volumes and prices of grains and soybeans[6] Future Outlook - Export momentum may weaken further due to high base effects in Q4, but there are supportive factors such as improved global economic recovery, particularly in the EU and ASEAN regions, which together account for 33% of China's total exports[8] - Exports to Africa have been strong, with a cumulative growth rate reaching 24.6% in August, increasing its share of total exports to 6%[8]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 49.4, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of 49.3, but remains below the 50% threshold for the fifth consecutive month, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[3] - The production index for August rose to 50.8, up by 0.3 percentage points, while the new orders index increased to 49.5, up by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting marginal improvement in production relative to demand[7] - The new export orders index stood at 47.2, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, with July exports showing a strong year-on-year growth of 7.2%, indicating a gradual reduction in tariff impacts[11] Group 2: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI fell to 49.1, down by 1.5 percentage points from the previous value of 50.6, highlighting a significant decline in construction activity[4] - The new orders index for construction dropped to 40.6, indicating weak real estate sales and a slowdown in the issuance of special bonds, leading to insufficient new projects[12] - Despite a rebound in the employment index, the supply-demand imbalance continues to hinder overall non-manufacturing expansion momentum[12] Group 3: Investment Recommendations and Risks - Manufacturing sector shows slight month-on-month improvement but remains below the threshold, indicating no significant recovery; external demand remains resilient but may face challenges post-tariff exemption period ending in November[5] - In light of weak domestic demand, expectations for monetary policy easing, including potential rate cuts, may arise following the Federal Reserve's decisions[18] - Risks include unexpected impacts from tariffs on manufacturing, slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence, and potential shortcomings in industrial policy[19]

Report Summary Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamental situation has no new driving forces, and it is waiting for a pullback [1]. - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has暂缓, and it is in a range - bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change, and night - trading was 9,488 yuan/ton with a 0.68% change; soybean oil's day - trading was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00% change) and night - trading was 8,402 yuan/ton (- 1.57% change); rapeseed oil's day - trading was 9,941 yuan/ton (- 0.57% change) and night - trading was 9,810 yuan/ton (- 1.32% change); Malaysian palm oil's day - trading was 4,470 ringgit/ton (- 0.51% change) and night - trading was 4,451 ringgit/ton (- 0.43% change); CBOT soybean oil was 53.46 cents/pound (- 2.57% change) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 29,423 lots (- 7,102 change) and open interest was 31,104 lots (- 11,004 change); soybean oil's trading volume was 25,058 lots (- 10,177 change) and open interest was 37,839 lots (- 14,776 change); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 12,749 lots (- 1,539 change) and open interest was 18,022 lots (- 6,367 change) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,470 yuan/ton (- 150 change); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,850 yuan/ton (+ 130 change); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (+ 40 change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,110 dollars/ton (- 5 change) [2]. - **Basis**: Palm oil in Guangdong was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 314 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 321 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 1,044 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 76 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 120 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Tax Exemption in Malaysia**: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST). Currently, these two products face a 5% special tax [5]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Tariff**: The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but the final agreement has no set schedule [5]. - **Indian Vegetable Oil Tax**: The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association (IVPA) urges the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022 [6]. - **Pakistani Soybean Purchase**: Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from US exporters, with a total value of about 500 million dollars [6]. - **Brazilian Soybean Regulations**: A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a decision by the country's antitrust regulator regarding the "Amazon soybean ban" [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons [7]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit in Brazil**: In Mato Grosso from August 18 - 22, the soybean crushing profit was 387.05 reais/ton [7]. - **EU Oil Imports**: As of August 24, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 350,000 tons, soybeans were 1.96 million tons, and rapeseed was 390,000 tons, all lower than last year [8]. - **Russian Sunflower Oil Tax**: Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9].