央行降准降息预期

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纯碱、玻璃日报-20250718
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:41
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 18, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, in the short - term, the market will follow the overall commodity trend and fluctuate strongly, but in the long - term, it is bearish due to supply - demand contradictions. For glass, in the short - term, it will fluctuate with the overall commodity trend, and in the long - term, the fundamental driving force is weak [8][10] Group 4: Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On July 17, the main futures contract SA509 of soda ash turned from a decline to a rise, with a closing price of 1,225 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.15%, and a daily reduction of 39,415 lots [7] - In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand both increased, and inventory accumulation still existed. The weekly output was 733,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%, and the total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.26% [8] Glass - In terms of supply, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased, and the supply of float glass also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory was at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction was slow, leading to potential further inventory accumulation [9] - In the downstream, the domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues. The policy orientation needs further observation [10] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the output of flat glass [12][13][17]